TV 2012 Ratings

Discussion in 'Footy Fourth Estate' started by The_Wookie, Feb 21, 2012.

Put it out there
  1. Mister Football

    Mister Football Team Captain

    Sydney
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Apr 08
    Posts:
    744
    Location:
    Brisbane
    I too have noticed the distinct lack of trolls in FFE this season. Whether or not it's a combination of irrefutably fantastic ratings, solid (and in some cases, record-breaking) crowd averages or the comparatively pathetic NRL figures, it sure does smell a lot less offended around here.

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  2. zero

    zero All Australian

    Other teams:
    WA state-of-origin
    Joined:
    May 03
    Posts:
    6,901
    Location:
    Oval, SW8, South London
    the really stupid thing about it is that kickass ratings for AFL this year only enhances the value of the NRL rights.

    it looks like they will be moving to a broadcast structure that is very similar to ours, lots of live games, broadcast through non-heartland areas on multi-channels, simulcast on fox, with a much higher proportion of advertising in FTA games.

    the better this structure is shown to work this year for the AFL, the more they will get for a similar product.

    plus if channel 7 are making a killing on AFL, they are much more likely to be a meaningful participant in the bid process for the NRL rights.

    if 7 go in hard for the rights and try to take every FTA game off 9, then the NRL is going to maximise what they get

    i personally hope they get enough cash to properly fund a perth expansion. its about time the reds were back in, and on free to air TV too
  3. ____

    ____ ____

    Brisbane Lions
    Other teams:
    Everton, Roar, Broncos
    Joined:
    Sep 09
    Posts:
    5,488
    BEFORE SAYING THIS I JUST WANT TO SAY I'M A FAN OF BOTH CODES:
    I hope that Broncos (seeing we pretty much always play on Friday Nights) games are available live on TV should I decide to move interstate. Maybe similar to the AFL deal (not money wise but coverage wise).
  4. Pleasedontfail11

    Pleasedontfail11 Team Captain

    Collingwood
    Other teams:
    F1 racing
    Joined:
    Oct 10
    Posts:
    1,242
    Location:
    Melbourne
    :thumbsu::thumbsu:

    Yeah the coverage has been better for the Storm over the last few weeks. The more coverage of sport in this country the better.
  5. Spearhead

    Spearhead Senior List

    Fremantle
    Other teams:
    Swan Districts
    Joined:
    Aug 09
    Posts:
    296
    Location:
    Perth
    Is it possible for that rugby rubbish's crowds to drop even lower than they already were?? :D
  6. mxett

    mxett Club Legend

    Essendon
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jul 07
    Posts:
    11,137
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I see a few problems:

    - The afl has 27 hours of TV to sell with relevance across the nation. The NRL has 16 hours to sell with interest into 3 states only.

    - an afl game has 2.5 times the advertisement time of an NRL game. No amount of tinkering will bridge that gap. Even if they do change the NRLs breaks and lengthen the game this threatens to drive viewers and crowds away due to unnatural breaks they will not be accustomed to.

    - AFL Viewer numbers have increased because of live coverage and more games shown in isolation. The NRL already has live fn games and almost all games shown in isolation.
  7. Stewies Power

    Stewies Power Team Captain

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Aus Cricket Team & F1 Ricciardo
    Joined:
    Sep 11
    Posts:
    3,217
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Nailed it. Although can you really say nRL can advertise into Victoria and create interest? The Storm's crowds have been atrocious for the best team in the comp.
  8. parano1a

    parano1a All Australian

    Collingwood
    Other teams:
    Melbourne Storm
    Joined:
    Mar 03
    Posts:
    1,866
    Location:
    Melbourne
    VIC now gets the NSW schedule on GEM, so Brisbane's games are usually the 9.30 game (2 hour delay)
  9. Smokin

    Smokin All Australian

    Essendon
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jun 01
    Posts:
    4,553
    Location:
    Melbourne
    depends on how you look at it.

    I would have thought the networks will now use the AFL rights as a benchmark, the further behind them the less they will argue they should offer?

    And even if you argue ratings are identical, AFL games go for 50% longer and have over double the natural advertising opportunities. They are arguably 40-50% off the AFL rights based on that alone.

    But what is going to drive the price is demand - the fact that 9 and fox have announced a partnership would be worrying to the NRL I would have thought. I highly doubt 7 or 10 are interested in anything more than SOO or a niche, one game package. Id highly doubt 10 are serious at all.
  10. RodneyMaynard

    RodneyMaynard All Australian

    Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Central Districts F.C, GWS
    Joined:
    Mar 11
    Posts:
    1,358
    Location:
    Canberra
    I think Nine/Seven/Ten will be watching very closely the effect that Fox simulcasting has on Seven's AFL ratings. Given that Fox penetration in QLD and NSW is much higher than in SA/WA/Tas/Vic, and that this is largely driven by NRL fans, if Fox tries to get a similar 'all games live uninterrupted' deal from the NRL, the hit to the NRL's FTA ratings would be far more significant than the hit to FTA's AFL ratings. The FTA bidders would presumably be well aware of this possibility.

    Back on topic, given that this year's Carlton Collingwood clash is live, I think the ratings could be ridiculously high. Thoughts?
  11. Stewies Power

    Stewies Power Team Captain

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Aus Cricket Team & F1 Ricciardo
    Joined:
    Sep 11
    Posts:
    3,217
    Location:
    Adelaide
    On par with the Collingwood Hawthorn game. Figure could be higher in Melbourne but maybe a bit lower here and in Perth as it hasn't been spoken up as much. 161k watched Hawks v Pies on Seven this year in Adel, ridiculously high considering the amount that would have watched on Fox as well. Can't really see Pies v Blues getting above that here to be honest.

    (Log in to remove this ad.)

  12. 1873 United

    1873 United Senior List

    St Kilda
    Other teams:
    Leeds United
    Joined:
    May 09
    Posts:
    267
    Location:
    South East Melbourne
    Hopefully with this large rise in ratings, it will posture the afl in a position of power to negotiate an even larger deal next time.

    One only has to take into consideration, that in 4 years, both GC and GWS will be starting to compete on the field, creating greater interest in the North. I have no doubts that the game is yet to enter a golden era, this will commence in about 5 years, when the competition evens out.

    Hopefully 1.5m nation wide watch Friday night footy.
  13. Demonoid

    Demonoid Team Captain

    Melbourne
    Other teams:
    GWS
    Joined:
    Dec 07
    Posts:
    402
    Location:
    Canberra
    Well they went from $500m, to $780 to $1.25b. Each time representing a rough 60% increase.

    Therefore, its not inconceivable that they would get the big $2b (which is a 60% increase on the last rights deal). They may need to rollout some more concessions to the media, such as night grand finals, good Friday football and monday night football (all of which I am in favour of, and all of which I think will transpire once traditionalist Demetriou moves on), but hopefully not rolling (or non-fixed) scheduling a la the NRL which, although may be worth more money, is a massive no no with fans.

    With FTA regionals, the total audience may just get to 1.5m for this Friday night
  14. zero

    zero All Australian

    Other teams:
    WA state-of-origin
    Joined:
    May 03
    Posts:
    6,901
    Location:
    Oval, SW8, South London
    relevance is a subjective term. the relative size of the heartlands are pretty close, and yes AFL has greater penetration outside its heartland, but thats mitigated by NSW and QLD being slightly larger.
    the mooted changes to NRL games could add 20-30 mins of advertising, bringing it up to about 50-60 minutes. which is not that far off an AFL game, probably only 10-15 mins shy. so while they wont bridge the gap entirely, they will be significantly closer.

    and yes its going to mean that their ratings are going to be lower, as games will go later into the night, and the drop-off effect of blow out games will be much more pronounced. and its going to piss alot of people off for a while too

    but then again, they will most likely be pushing for alot more live and free to air games too, which as we have seen is very good for the ratings.
    they will have a fair bit more live, free to air league next year, mark my words. id be betting that foxtel will be losing their saturday exclusivity as well. which is a bit of a bummer for us, as its been very useful for us to have FTA to ourselves in NSW and QLD these last years.

    for me, if i was them, i would be dropping the simulcast thing on fridays. yes it rates well, but you are condemning 2 of your best games to a late night delayed timeslot.
  15. 1873 United

    1873 United Senior List

    St Kilda
    Other teams:
    Leeds United
    Joined:
    May 09
    Posts:
    267
    Location:
    South East Melbourne
    Not to rain on anyones parade, however, if an nRL broadcast was to be extended by 30minutes, as in match time, it would heavily influence the game.

    I see it as selling the soul of the game, to try and match another sport, rather than capitalising on the current sports merits.
  16. The_Wookie

    The_Wookie Moderator

    Carlton
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jul 10
    Posts:
    13,846
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Ill bet good money that the NRL end up with a deal close to the AFLs ins size, scope and design. The NRl will also reap the benefits of seeing the teething issues of the AFL deal and be able to knock them out before the broadcasts start.
  17. mxett

    mxett Club Legend

    Essendon
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Jul 07
    Posts:
    11,137
    Location:
    Melbourne
    You make a good point. If the NRL pad their games out another 30-40 minutes with ads they will not only lose viewers due to the increase in unnatural breaks filled with annoying ads, they will also suffer a drop in the ratings average because of an increase in the program length.

    I can see them ending up with a broadcasting arrangment similar to the AFL but I cannot understand how it will be worth close to the AFLs deal since they are not national and only have 16hrs of play from 8 games.
  18. Stewies Power

    Stewies Power Team Captain

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Aus Cricket Team & F1 Ricciardo
    Joined:
    Sep 11
    Posts:
    3,217
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Yes I'm sure all the bogan league fans would be delighted with an extra half an hour of advertising ;) IMO, the only thing the nRL has over the AFL is that there is less avertising (not a problem if you have Foxtel however like me) but from a FTA viewers perspective. Mark my words, viewers will drop off with increased advertisements - especially if it's 30 minutes as well.
    If the AFL are to pursue an NBA-style media group and record their own games and sell league passes on the internet, I don't think we will get to $2 billion or grow by 60% as has been the case in previous deals as we will have less games to sell to TV. No doubt the $1.253 figure will increase, but by how much is anyone's guess. I'd predict it would go for about $1.5-1.7 million. Could be higher. But the opportunities that arise from broadcasting your own matches and selling them directly to viewers and getting 100% of advertisers money, will easily eclipse the lost money from TV dealers. It's a huge investment but well worth it. I will definitely purchase a league pass in 2017.
  19. Pleasedontfail11

    Pleasedontfail11 Team Captain

    Collingwood
    Other teams:
    F1 racing
    Joined:
    Oct 10
    Posts:
    1,242
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I think that the NRL in terms of ratings will catch the AFL if they get 4 live games, however it will kill their crowds. Like someone else said they would probabaly have to drop the friday night double header to do that. They still will only get 900-1000 million from that deal due to less advertising even with the simulcast. If they introduce 45-50 minutes of of advertising into an 80 minute game that might get them more money from FTA TV but it will lower the price of their fox component and it will destroy their ratings and less new people would be inclined to watch it. The NRL should leave their product as it is take less money and keep increasing their ratings and new viewers it would be better for them in the long term.

    If the Pies V Blues game is a close one (lets say Pies win by a point) Then it could be the highest rating non final for the year. 1 million FTA Metro and 400K fox.
  20. Pleasedontfail11

    Pleasedontfail11 Team Captain

    Collingwood
    Other teams:
    F1 racing
    Joined:
    Oct 10
    Posts:
    1,242
    Location:
    Melbourne
    With Fox footy being the highest rating show on fox at the moment even with the blowout games, I could see the AFL in 5-10 years time introducing their own chanel with similar shows and every game live on internet TV and selling subs for $20-30 dollars a month.

    $20 X12 months X5 years X 1,000,000 subs = 1.2 billion + 0.6 billion for 4 live FTA games = 1.8 billion (doesnt inc contra or mobile phones) It could be a 2 billion dollar deal in the end.

    One of the issues would be that footy only runs for 8 months of the year. 9 months if you include an extra month for all the drafts.
  21. Stewies Power

    Stewies Power Team Captain

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Aus Cricket Team & F1 Ricciardo
    Joined:
    Sep 11
    Posts:
    3,217
    Location:
    Adelaide
    You're forgetting the money that the AFL would receive from advertisements during EVERY match. This would easily top $2 billion. Easily!
  22. Mister Football

    Mister Football Team Captain

    Sydney
    Other teams:
    Joined:
    Apr 08
    Posts:
    744
    Location:
    Brisbane
    I think the AFL has reached a zenith in terms of a monetary figure attached to the rights, especially in its current form.

    I suspect that by the time the next rights are discussed for the 2017 season, the relevance of cable television in its current form will be vastly diminished. Instead, I see the industry moving towards a la carte style of subscription television where the consumer chooses precisely what they wish to view, rather than the current model where Foxtel and the like wrap hundreds of superflous channels around the few there is genuine interest for (sports, lifestyle, documentaries).

    I envision an MLB.tv style offering where the consumer pays a monthly fee for a dedicated AFL channel delivered over the internet and viewable through an AppleTV style entertainment hub. Remember, the NBN will by 2017 be accessible in nearly every home in the country, so the restrictions that hamper such a system in 2012 will be long gone. I can see such a service make up a significant portion of the money lost by the AFL through the traditional -- but by that time redundant -- selective free-to-air system.

    Of course, the current day viewing formats will still exist, but in a far less lucrative and attractive fashion for both the AFL, the commercial stations and, most importantly, the consumer.
  23. zero

    zero All Australian

    Other teams:
    WA state-of-origin
    Joined:
    May 03
    Posts:
    6,901
    Location:
    Oval, SW8, South London
    without question their ratings are going to drop if they pile in more advertising. and they are going to have problems maintaining the audiences they do get to the end as well, which effects the averages.

    they will have to figure out a way to boost them in other ways. getting games on FTA TV live would be the best way to do it.
  24. Stewies Power

    Stewies Power Team Captain

    Port Adelaide
    Other teams:
    Aus Cricket Team & F1 Ricciardo
    Joined:
    Sep 11
    Posts:
    3,217
    Location:
    Adelaide
    I saw someone mention that the nRL should introduce 20 minute quarters. If this were to occur watching nRL fans' reactions to the news would be hilarious! :D
  25. AuckMel

    AuckMel Moderator

    Collingwood
    Other teams:
    NZ Warriors
    Joined:
    May 03
    Posts:
    8,033
    Location:
    Warriorville
    People who know a little bit about the game would have already seen this. Not a bad idea if they were looking into opportunities to create extra advertising revenue.