2013-14 AFL TM Off-Season Analysis & Discussion

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  • #27
Trade #11 - Western Vultures ( sante ) trade Clinton Young, Pick #38 and Pick #43 to Brisbane ( Pie 4 Life ) for Heath Shaw and Pick #44
An interesting trade between two premiership contenders sees Brisbane trade Heath Shaw and pick 44 to Western Vultures for Clinton Young, Pick 38 and Pick 43. Make no mistake about it, this trade was a salary dump for the Bears that could either help or hinder their premiership chances in 2014. Clinton Young plays a similar role to Heath Shaw, but Shaw is much more durable than Young and has posted consitently high scores for multiple seasons across the half back line. Young has the ability to get close to or even match Shaw's if he gets going, but will he even get on the ground in 2014?

The Vultures will be ecstatic to have added a premium defender to their already strong team. Young is not a huge loss to the team and with plenty of salary cap space it makes perfect sense. Swapping a few draft picks is also not a huge loss to the Vultures given they are in the premiership hunt.

Vultures are the big winners in this trade, but that isn't to say that Brisbane are the losers. By off-loading a large contract the Bears now have enough salary cap space to make a move on several uncontracted players as well as engineer a few more trades. If Young gets close to Shaw's output then it could very well go a long way to Brisbane winning the premiership.
 

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  • #35
Trade #12 - Gold Coast ( sausageroll ) trade Reece Conca and Pick #31 to Ballarat ( fightingfury_88 ) for John Butcher, Phil Davis and Pick #19
In the 12th trade of the off-season Gold Coast send developing midfielder/backman Reece Conca and pick 31 to Ballarat for key position players John Butcher and Phil Davis as well as pick 19. This trade should solidify Gold Coast's key position stocks at either end of the dround for the distant future with two very big men added to the squad. Neither players are big scorers at this point in their careers, with Davis averaging just over 50 and Butcher just over 40. Butcher has shown some enormous potential as a key forward and with a little injury luck he could become a very handy scorer for the Devils. Phil Davis should also improve his numbers somewhat and although his ceiling isn't quite as high as Butcher's, he should be the more consistent of the two. With pick 19 Gold Coast will also be able to add further quality talent to the list, with the talent likely to be significantly better at that pick compared to the traded away pick 31.

The Dragons will be happy to add a very promising midfielder to their list. 2013 was somewhat of a breakout year for the early draft pick, averaging over 80 for the 2013 season. There is no doubt that Conca is the best scoring player of those involved in this trade and the Dragons will be hoping Reece can build on his solid base set this season. Giving up two key position players is a blow, but after acquiring Jeremy Cameron in an earlier trade the blow has been softened somewhat. Dropping back 12 picks in the second round also hurts the Dragons a little but with three second round picks already, the club won't be too concerned.

Obviously I'm a little biased with this one as this trade involves my team, but I do see myself as a slight winner in this trade only because I get the best scorer of those players traded. Losing Butcher hurts as I dearly wanted to hold onto him and I feel he will breakout in 2014. I couldn't pass up the opportunity though to add to my midfield depth and I'm certainly hoping that Conca stays with the Dragons for quite some time.
 
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  • #38
How far off is the review of the super trade ;)

Two trades away (see 1st page). The next review shouldn't take too long so all things going well I expect the mega trade review to be up by Christmas 2014.
 

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  • #39
Trade #13 - Launceston ( Marklar_33 ) trade Justin Clarke to Gippsland ( Continstar ) for Pick #47
A nice simple trade of player for pick sees defender Justin Clarke traded from Launceston to Gippsland for pick 47. Launceston have now lost their premiership cap boost and with that, they needed to off-load a little bit of salary in order to fit under the cap. Clarke had a very solid year for the Plovers in 2013, averaging over 40 points as a key defender in 14 games. Losing him though is not a huge loss for the team that already has the likes of Heath Grundy, Luke McPharlin and Daniel Talia in its key defender stocks. Gaining pick 47 is something, albeit not much in this trade.

The Sharks will be relatively happy to pick up a solid key defensive player on the cheap who should play a large amount of games over the coming years. At just 23 years of age Clarke should be around for a while and with some luck he could be able to improve his points average. Sharks win this trade by obtaining a player who should play games for a pick that most likely won't.
 
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  • #40
Currently a team of 40 writers are frantically scribbling ;)

I've got my best team on it right now.

Monkeys%2Btyping.jpg
 
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  • #43
Trade #14 - Rottnest ( peterss ) trade Dion Prestia, Jon Griffin, Adam Goodes, Leigh Montagna and Bachar Houli to Brisbane ( Pie 4 Life ) for Andrew Carrazzo, Leigh Adams, Michael Hibberd, Jay Schulz, Dale Thomas and Pick #6
Gees, where on earth do you start with this one? The monkeys and I had no idea so we began by ranking the assets in order of what we felt were most valuable to the least valuable. This is what we came up with:

1. Dion Prestia
2. Leigh Montagna
3. Dale Thomas
4. Pick 6
5. Michael Hibberd
6. Bachar Houli
7. Adam Goodes
8. Andrew Carrazzo
9. Jay Schulz
10. Leigh Adams
11. Jon Griffin

After looking at this we realised a couple of things. Firstly, there were a total of 11 assets involved in the one trade. That's huge and would have to be some sort of record. Secondly, even the 11th player listed on that list is a quality scorer, meaning all 11 players are of quite high quality.

Brisbane have again bit the bullet and gone all out for the next couple of seasons, trading out their first round pick and a bunch of youngish talent for more established scorers in the league. Having said that, they still managed to snare one of the best young midfield prospects in the league in Dion Prestia, a player who at just the age of 21, averaged almost 100 points per game in 2013. That's elite! Montagna is also an absolute gun of a player and will be around for a couple more years yet. Joey is one of the more underrated scorers in the league and to be honest it's hard to see why when he averaged over 110 in 2013.

If Griffin and Goodes play the majority of games next season they will score well, but Griffin will be stuck behind Sandilands and Clarke in the ruck pecking order and I'm just not sure how Goodes will go now he is pushing on to his senior footballing years. Bachar Houli is an underrated player also and is pretty much a like for like replacement Hibberd. Brisbane will be happy with this trade but now they must really make hay when the sun shines and get a premiership in either 2014 or 2015 for this trade to be successful.

Rottnest have traded away some absolute guns but have managed to replace them with some refreshing younger talent. Carrazzo and Schulz may be pushing on in AFL years but they both should play a role for the Razorbacks; Schulz in a key forward position and Carrazzo in the midfield or even down back. Dale Thomas is a risky addition but from all reports he is feeling good and in full health. A return to his glory days of scoring is quite possible and at 26 years of age he should be hitting his prime. Pick 6 could be anything, but at the very least Rottnest should be able to snag a strong midfielder in the draft who may score well from day dot.

As mentioned earlier Hibberd is a like for like with Houli, but at only 23 years old he should improve his output even further after breaking out in 2013. Leigh Adams will also be a handy acquisition to the Razorbacks side where he should be able to add roughly 70 points per game in the Rottnest forwardline. That'sof course as long as Chris Judd doesn't decide to mess his shoulders up with another chicken wing.

Brisbane have again shortened their premiership window timeframe but increased their chances of winning it in the short term by completing this trade. They would have to be one of the premiership favourites for the upcoming season now and I like what they have done. Having said that, it's a risky route to take and it is partly because of this that I believe Rottnest are the winners in this trade. They have managed to add to the young talent on their list without hurting their scoring potential for the upcoming season all that much. A lot will come down to just how Dale Thomas performs after a prolonged injury absence. If he struggles to come good, the Brisbane may have pulled off a beautiful trade. Until that happens though, I'm giving the points to the Razorbacks.
 
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  • #44
Trade #15 - Geelong ( GeeCat ) trade Luke Dahlhaus and Pick #37 to Rottnest ( peterss ) for Jarrod Harbrow and pick #51
Interesting trade this one wit two fairly young players in Dahlhaus and Harbrow switching clubs as well as picks 37 and 51. Harbrow is the higher scorer of the two players, posting an average of just over 80 in 2013. I feel this is about Habrow's maximum output in terms of points per game and Geelong will be happy to have him as a permanent member of their half-back line if he maintains it over the following years. One concern I do have about Harbrow is his security in the Gold Coast AFL team. With such a young squad there is a chance that some players may push past him in the best 22. For 2014 however, I see him holding his place. Downgrading pick 37 to 51 is not a huge blow for Geelong in this draft, with both picks likely to be a bit hit and miss at this stage.

Dahlhaus is the younger of the two players but still managed to post an average of just over 70 in 2013. Like Harbrow however, I see Dahlhaus' maximum output not increasing too much, but if it were to increase it would mostly be dependent on Luke spending more time in the midfield than up forward. Dahlhaus' average score in 2012 was actually higher than that in 2013, which may be a little worrying but probably reflects more on him learning more about the midfield role. Unlike Harbrow, I see Dahlhaus' position in the team as very secure for quite a few years yet.

This is a very even trade between the two teams but as of right now I give the points to Geelong. Dahlhaus may prove to be a very good scorer in the future but at this moment, Harbrow is the better player. If Dahlhaus can get more midfield minutes then the trade could swing significantly the other way but you know exactly what you're going to get with Jarrod and those 80 points per game could be the difference between winning and losing in some cases.
 
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  • #45
Trade #16 - Ballarat ( fightingfury_88 ) trade James Podsiadly and Pick #31 to Brisbane ( Pie 4 Life ) for Pick #26
Pretty simple this one really. In all likelihood Podsiadly was going to be let go by the Dragons as they focus on youth. Brisbane were obviously keen on the J-Pod and had placed a bid on the key forward. Rather than losing James for nothing, Ballarat negotiated a small pick upgrade for the loss of the player.

Brisbane will be particularly happy with this trade. Podsiadly is a vastly underrated scorer in this league, averaging over 75 as a key forward in 2013. With the club pushing hard for a premiership, James may very well be an important player as a key forward for Brisbane. The Bears pretty much gave up nothing for him as well with there likely to be very little difference between picks 26 and 31. Brisbane win this trade, but at least the Dragons don't lose J-Pod for nothing in return.
 
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  • #46
Trade #17 - St Kilda ( ShaunDuggan ) trade Jarrod Witts to Wagga Wagga ( Gee Dub ) for Elliott Kavanagh
The seventeenth trade of the off-season involves a simple swap of two young players in Jarrod Witts and Elliott Kavanagh. Both players are at very similar points in their career, with both players on the fringe of their AFL teams and both players showing signs during the limited time they have been on the park.

In 2013 both players averaged in the mid 50's and both players will be looking for more game time in 2014. All things in this swap point to an equal trade. The only difference between the two players are the positions and the contracts. Kavanagh has been signed to a deal that sees him earn $200,000 for two years whereas Witts has been signed to a $288,000 deal for 5 years. Both contracts have their pros and cons, with Witts' deal more high risk, high reward compared to Kavanagh's stock-standard deal for a player of his standing.

Both teams will be happy with what they received in this trade. In the short term I see Kavanagh as the player most likely to produce a higher output, but over a few years, Witts may be able to cement his position in his AFL team and increase his output because of this. I doubt this will happen in 2014, but with a relatively cheap 5 year deal, Jarrod certainly has the time to impress his new Warthog coach.

I'm giving the win in this one to Wagga Wagga, but really there is very little difference. My only reason for rating the trade higher for the Warthogs is because I feel that in three to four years time Witts will be producing very high scores for someone on $288,000 a year, whereas Kavanagh will have had his salary increased at that point due to the bidding system. There is much less risk in this trade for St Kilda though and the trade definitely continues the Titans quite handy off-season.
 
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  • #47
Trade #18 - Gippsland ( Continstar ) trade Jarryd Roughead to St Kilda ( ShaunDuggan ) for Sam Mitchell
Two stars of the game again switch clubs with Gippsland and StKilda agreeing to part with Jarryd Roughead and Sam Mitchell respectively. I have to admit, I am very surprised by this trade. Sam Mitchell averages over 95 as a midfielder, which is absolutely superb, but the guy is over 30 years old and can't have all that many seasons left in the game. Roughead averages over 85 as a key forward, which is absolutely elite for a key forward. Both Roughead and Mitchell have a similar salary, so the trade is not a salary dump and the key forward positions are quite hard to fill.

This trade to me would suggest that Gippsland are looking to push for a premiership in the next couple of years as it is not often you trade away a 26 year old key forward who averages over 80 for a midfielder quite possibly on the decline. The trade is not all that bad for a team really pushing hard for a premiership, but as of right now I feel Gippsland are behind a few others in the pecking order.

St Kilda will be delighted in obtaining another elite key forward. Paired alongside Travis Cloke, the Titans now boast one of the more devastating key forward combinations in the league. Despite rejuvenating their list with predominantly youth, the Titans continue to be right in the premiership frame and this trade continues to embrace that feeling.

This trade is another win for the Titans. The trade is fairly even based on points average alone, but age combined with position mean that St Kilda win. I also feel that Gippsland may have been able to find a better deal elsewhere for Roughead if they really needed to unload the uncontracted player. It will be interesting to see how the Sharks go in 2014 however as their list has improved for next year by completing this trade.
 
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  • #48
Trade #19 - Albury ( Fitzey ) trade Tom Scully, Jack Watts and Pick #40 to St Kilda ( ShaunDuggan ) for Harley Bennell
This trade is a beauty because it works for both teams. There is no doubting that Harley Bennell is the best player in this trade. The kid is a jet and at the age of just 21 he averaged over 85 points per game. At such a young age he can only get better. Harley is the type of player that the Bandits can rebuild around and this is reinforced by the 5 year deal given to the young midfielder. Albury will be ecstatic to have Bennell in their team for 2014 and beyond and I can see him tearing it up in their midfield for years to come.

St Kilda may have given away the best player in this trade, but they may have come out of the deal in better shape for it. The Titans are in true premiership contention and if the Vultures win this year taught only one thing that is that all contenders need depth. This trade does exactly that for them. Scully and Watts aren't quite as prolific scorers as Bennell, but with Scully averaging of 75 and Watts averaging almost 70, both players actually score pretty well for their positions. The mooted positional change of Watts into the midfield is also a potential points bounty for the maligned player too which of course means it's a potential points bounty for St Kilda as well. The acquisition of pick 40 is nice for the Titans but in all reality it is unlikely to yield much in the draft. Perhaps the best part of this trade for the Titans however is the contract at Scully. With a contract of just $350,000 a year for 5 years Scully is at bargain basement price, even if he does not improve on his 75 average.

Both teams will be very happy with this trade. Albury get their superstar to build around and St Kilda continue to build their depth in line with their premiership tilt. The contract for Scully though tilts this trade in the Titans favour. Scully and Watts should be able to cover the loss of Bennell, particularly over the next two or three years when St Kilda will be pushing hard for a premiership. Albury won't be disappointed though, they may have just acquired one of the future best players in the competition.
 
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  • #49
Trade #20 - Geelong ( GeeCat ) trade Jonathan Simpkin, Pick #17 and Pick #55 to Melbourne ( loopy_cam ) for Jackson Thurlow, Pick #49 and Pick #67
We're into the twenties now and this trade is yet another interesting one. The Geelong coach is known to love players who play for the AFL team with the same name and this time it is Jackson Thurlow joining the list in exchange for Jonathan Simpkin and Pick #17. Pick 49 is also exchanged for pick 55 and 67 in this deal.

There is no doubt that Geelong have a formula when recruiting players and nobody can doubt it works when you make it all the way to the Grand Final. Thurlow is a young back-flanker who showed signs of being a very adequate scorer after being a relatively early pick in the 2012 draft. The 19 year old posted an average of just under 60 in his four games. The sample size may be small but in that time Jackson showed a real knack for finding the ball. Thurlow will add even more depth to a Geelong side that went so close to winning it all in 2013 and he should play many more games in the upcoming years after the depature of several team champions. Giving up Simpkin is not a huge loss, but he was a consistent performer for the team in 2013.

Melbourne will be happy to get a two for one deal for with this trade. Simpkin should be an adequate replacement for Thurlow over the next couple of years and the addition of pick 17 should see Melbourne pick up a player of equal quality if they pick right. The exchange of later picks is an added bonus for the club, albeit there will not be too much difference between any of the three picks.

Thurlow is the player with the most potential in this trade, but my feeling is that Melbourne won out in this one by securing both a handy young established player and a decent first round draft pick. If Melbourne can draft well with this pick then they well and truly win this trade but Geelong will be happy with the surety that they have added a quality young player to their stocks.
 
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  • #50
Trade #21 - Gold Coast ( sausageroll ) trade Dean Terlich, Hayden Ballantyne, Xavier Ellis and Pick #24 to West End ( PVF ) for Jesse Lonergan, Kane Lucas, Zach Tuohy and Pick #15
This trade sees three senior players in Terlich, Ballantyne and Ellis traded to West End for their more junior counterparts Jesse Lonergan, Kane Lucas and Zach Tuohy. Pick 24 is also traded for pick 15 as part of the deal. This is an interesting trade to look at because it really is a trade for two different things. West End bring in the more established Terlich and Ballantyne as well as the injury-prone Ellis but they perhaps lose the more promising talent in Jesse Lonergan and Kane Lucas.

West End will be happy to add two players guaranteed of game time in the form of Ballantyne and Terlich, with both players regulars in their AFL teams and posting averages of over 71 and 80 respectively. Both players are also on very good contracts, especially Terlich West End will only be paying $110,000 for the next three yeas. Both Ballantyne and Terlich will provide a points boost for the Riots over the coming years. Ellis may be a handy acquisition for West End also. Due to injury the former top-end draft pick has never really had much playing time consistency, but he has shown the ability to post decent scores in the past. With a fresh start in 2014 Xavier should be able to increase on his games tally and push his average closer to the 70 mark if he can stay injury free.

Gold Coast have lost two best 22 players, but they have somewhat refreshed their list by adding the young talent of Lonergan and Lucas. I see Lonergan as the player with the most potential in this trade. The young midfielder struggled somewhat with injuries in 2013 but he has shown in this short professional career that he can find the ball. If Jesse can come into the next season fully fit then I expect him to post scores closer to the 65-70 mark. On a fairly cheap 5 year contract, the Devils certainly believe that Lonergan can be a high point scorer and will give him the time to develop. Kane Lucas is a solid scorer when playing, but is security in the best 22 is fairly uncertain. 2013 was his best year so far though and if he can cement his place in the team then you can expect him to average roughly 70 points per game. Zach Tuohy is the only traded in player for the Devils that is guaranteed consistent playing time in 2014, but his scoring average is actually quite low. This should continue to slowly increase however and may break 60 before the year is out.

In summary, Gold Coast have traded out players players with solid job security for players that have shown potential. It's a risky move that could pay off in the long run, for now though you have to mark the trade down as a win for West End. You know that both Terlich and Ballantyne are going to play and score well every week whereas Lucas and Lonergan need to actually play to score. The trade down of pick 15 to 24 is not going to hurt too much either, with players of similar ability likely to be available at both these selections. Lonergan is certainly a midfielder you want on your team though, I rate him highly and I certainly wouldn't be disappointed if I was the Gold Coast coach.
 

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