2013-14 AFL TM Off-Season Analysis & Discussion

[sausageroll]

Admittedly, I should have got more for Stringer. I agreed to that trade before trades were open, only to see offers coming from everywhere for him. But once I've agreed to a deal I won't re-nig on it, so I took the hit.

Apart from that I'm extremely happy with my off-season.

This off-season was all about long term list management.
I got a lot of players who I think will be good performers in 3-5 years time, and will be on great salaries at that time.
This will free up salary cap space to get more expensive guns in to complement these players along with players like Deledio and LeCras who will be on veteran salaries.

McEvoy was coming out of contract next season so still being on a cheap contract gave me top trade value. If I wanted to keep him it would have cost me top dollar. Trading Conca out saved my a couple of hundred thousand per season given the salaries of his replacements. That money is in the bank for the coming seasons when I will need it most.

I missed out on a few of my major targets but got more than I missed out on.

Very happy

 

[fightingfury_88]

This off-season was all about long term list management.
I got a lot of players who I think will be good performers in 3-5 years time, and will be on great salaries at that time.
This will free up salary cap space to get more expensive guns in to complement these players along with players like Deledio and LeCras who will be on veteran salaries.

You're certainly sitting pretty with your contract situation and a very balanced list. Deledio and Trengove are the only players with a salary in excess of $500K and only just at that.

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - Harbour City Hornets ( knobby )
IN - Stewart Crameri (FA), Pick 30, Brendon Goddard (Trade), Shane Edwards (Trade), Jack Gunston (Trade), Pick 10, Pick 48, Aaron Hall (Trade), Nick Haynes (Trade), Jarryn Geary (Trade), Mike Pyke (Trade), Jarryd Lyons (Trade)
OUT - Mitchell Grigg (FA), Tom Mitchell (FA), Troy Chaplin (Trade), Jeremy Cameron (Trade), Matthew Wright (Trade), Pick 23, Luke Delaney (Trade), Pick 41, Matthew Buntine (Trade), Pick 3, Aaron Edwards (Trade), Cameron O'Shea (Trade), Jack Hombsch (Trade), Tim Broomhead (Trade)

One of the busiest teams this off-season added some real quality to their list by acquiring Brendon Goddard via trade. Goddard is an elite defender/midfielder of the game and instantly adds 100 points to the Hornets weekly score. Edwards, Gunston, Hall and Pyke are all proven performers and will add some solid depth to the Harbour City list, with most of those players likely to be in the best 18 at some point. Adding Crameri via free agency is a huge plus and he should fit in a team that is lacking a little in key forwards. Geary will be a nice depth defender in the very least while Haynes and Lyons will have time to develop their game. Adding pick 10 means the Hornets should be able to pick up another quality youngster.

The addition of Goddard was obviously going to cost a fair bit and in this case it cost one of the most promising key forwards in the game; Jeremy Cameron. His loss will no doubt hurt the club in the future but the immediate impact should be lessened somewhat by the addition of Crameri and Gunston. Wright, Buntine and Hombsch have all shown signs of being players in the future but they also should not hurt the Hornets chances too much in the immediate future. The loss of O'Shea, Delaney and Chaplin definitely hurts the team's key defensive slots whereas Edwards and and Broomhead would have been borderline depth players at best anyway. Perhaps the biggest loss for this club would have been in free-agency with both Grigg and Mitchell heading elsewhere due to massive and perhaps unreasonable bids by opposition teams. The Hornets will be sad to see both players go but really they had no choice but to let them go once the bids came in.

Summary: The Hornets should be serious contenders in 2014 after adding some premium talent to their list but they may have shortened their premiership window just a touch by trading out some young talent. The acquisition of both Gunston and Hall should not be underestimated and overall the Hornets can view this off-season as a success. 7.5/10

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - Launceston Plovers ( Marklar_33 )
IN - Daniel Merrett (FA), Mitch Wallis (Trade), Pick 47, Hamish Hartlett (Trade), Pick 19, Pick 40
OUT - Michael Evans (FA), Sam Michael (FA), Heath Scotland (FA), Pick 5, Pick 43, Justin Clarke (Trade), Todd Goldstein (Trade), Daniel Talia (Trade), Pick 61

After winning the premiership in 2012 the Plovers took a bit of a tumble last year and as a result have made a few changes to their list in an attempt to refresh the list and save a bit of salary. While the trades completed may not be large in number they should be large in impact with premium defender Hamish Hartlett and potential premium midfielder Mitch Wallis traded into the club. Wallis success as an acquisition is likely to depend on his future role. Both players should have an impact fairly immediately alongside key defender Daniel Merrett who was brought to the club via free agency. The three picks brought into the club are also handy with pick 19 likely to net a solid player.

Unfortunately for the Plovers the need to shed salary meant that the club was required to off-load some promising players in order to keep under the cap. There is no doubt that Todd Goldstein represents the biggest loss for Launceston with the ruckman one of the best at his craft. The loss of Scotland also puts a dent in any immediate premiership plans the club has while losing Evans, Michael, Clarke and Talia means the Plovers depth will be tested in 2014. Perhaps one of the biggest losses though was that of pick 5. That pick was likely to result in a great midfielder for the future on a cheap salary, however it is understandable why this pick was traded away.

Summary: A tight salary cap meant that the Plovers effectively entered the off-season with one hand tied behind their back. Overall Launceston have come out of it fairly well though with the club willing to forgo players in free agency in order to free up salary to trade quality players into the club. There is little doubt though that the Plovers immediate premiership chances have taken a slight hit this off-season, particularly with the loss of Goldstein. 6.5/10

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - Melbourne Demons ( loopy_cam )
IN - Jason Porplyzia (FA), Heath Scotland (FA), Nick Graham (Trade), Brent Staker (Trade), Lachlan Hansen (Trade), Ben McEvoy (Trade), Jonathan Simpkin (Trade), Pick 55, Dayne Beams (Trade), Lachie Whitfield (Trade), Andrew Moore (Trade), Pick 52, Pick 58
OUT - Lewis Johnston (Trade), Michael Rischetelli (Trade), Michael Hurley (Trade), Dom Tyson (Trade), Pick 31, Pick 49, Pick 67, Heath Hocking (Trade), Jack Viney (Trade), Pick 11, Ben Rutten (Trade)

A busy off-season for the Demons with multiple players picked up via both free agency and trade. The biggest acquisition is without a doubt though is one of the premier midfielders in the league; Dayne Beams. Beams will add extra firepower to an already dangerous squad and with time on his side is likely to improve also. When you add the additions of McEvoy and Whitfield to this you have to see the off-season as a suceess. Both Whitfield and McEvoy are likely to be best 18 players for quite some time. Adding Hansen , Scotland, Moore and Staker makes this team one to watch in 2014 while Graham, Simpkin and Porplyzia will at the very least add depth.

Losing Tyson, Viney and Hurley is a bit of a blow with all three players likely to be very solid players in the future. The loss of Johnston, Rischetelli and Hocking should not be underestimated either with each of the three very reliable scorers. Ben Rutten has never been a high scorer and as such will not be missed too much but losing pick 11 means Melbourne miss out on adding further young talent.

Summary: It's not often that a team gets to add a premium player to their list so to add two in Beams and McEvoy is a brilliant coup for the Demons. A very good off-season that was topped off nicely by adding some free agents who should be ready to go in 2014. Losing Viney and Tyson may hurt in the future but when you add Dayne Beams there should be little to complain about. 8.5/10

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - Mozzie Bites ( Roy boys )
IN - Sam Grimley (FA), Heath Hocking (Trade), Jack Viney (Trade), Pick 11, Pick 17, Pick 42
OUT - Luke Breust (FA), Daniel Giansiracusa (FA), Will Minson (FA), Jackson Paine (FA), Dayne Beams (Trade), Lachie Whitfield (Trade), Andrew Moore (Trade), Pick 52

A fairly quiet off-season for the Bites who seem content to change their list by adding young talent and draft picks. There is no one stand out acquisition for the Mozzie Bites but they should be quite happy to have added a future quality midfielder in Jack Viney. Hocking should also be a first 18 player and could continue to improve while Grimley is still a project and likely to require a little more time before becoming a permanent player. Obtaining picks 11 and 17 should also result in some handy players for the Bites.

The Bites have lost some real talent through free agency with both Will Minson and Luke Breust being snapped up by opposition clubs. The loss of both these players will be felt immediately. Trading out Dayne Beams means the Bites will enter the 2014 season minus one of the best players in the competition while trading out Whitfield and Moore means the club has also lost a couple midfielders with real potential. Giansiracusa was only a stop-gap measure and as such his loss won't be felt too much but letting go of Paine could come back to bite them now that the key forward has a fresh start.

Summary: The Mozzie Bites have lost some real quality players this off-season and as a result their premiership chances have taken a real hit. The club has managed to add some young talent and early draft picks which would have them coming out about even if it wasn't for the losses in free agency. Unfortunately for them though, Minson and Breust are now no longer with the club. 5/10

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - Port Adelaide Power ( Russian )
IN - Jackson Merrett (FA), Garrick Ibbotson (FA), Tom Curren (FA), Daniel Giansiracusa (FA), Liam Shiels (FA), Cameron O'Shea (Trade), Jack Hombsch (Trade), Tim Broomhead (Trade), Marc Murphy (Trade), Mitch Robinson (Trade), Tomas Bugg (Trade), Hamish McIntosh (Trade), Zac Smith (Trade)
OUT - Sam Grimley (FA), Brandon Jack (FA), Adam Tomlinson (FA), Jarryn Geary (Trade), Mike Pyke (Trade), Jarryd Lyons (Trade), Luke Hodge (Trade), Shaun Higgins (Trade), Colin Garland (Trade), Brodie Grundy (Trade), Pick 12

A busy off-season for the Power and there is some real talent coming into the club with the likes of Murphy, Ibbotson and Robinson all proven performers at the top level. All three of those players should be able to post consistently high scores for their new club, particularly Murphy who has been a terrific midfielder for several years and still has room to improve. The acquisition of Smith and McIntosh shores up the Power's ruck stocks for the immediate future and in Smith's case, the long term future as well. Merrett, Shiels, O'Shea, Hombsch and Bugg have all shown signs to date and could come on in leaps and bounds in the coming years to provide the club with more than just depth. Giansiracusa is a veteran of the game and is likely to see out only one more season but there is no reason he can't be part of a premiership push. Broomhead and Curren are unknown quantities at this point, however the wraps on Broomhead a very positive and at the very least he provides a little depth.

The Power have lost some quality this off-season with Pyke, Hodge, Grundy and Higgins all likely first 18 players if they had stayed at the club. The loss of Hodge in particular hurts Port with the midfielder/defender likely post elite level scores in 2014. Losing young ruckman Grundy is somewhat eased by obtaining Zac Smith. Tomlinson, Geary, Lyons and Garland are also big losses for the club with all four players likely to play the majority of the games in 2014. Jack and Grimley also have the potential to chip in every now and then which means that crucial depth is lost by losing them in free agency. In addition to this, trading out pick 12 robs the Power of a handy draftee on a cheap contract.

Summary: The Power have gained some nice talent in the likes of Murphy, Ibbotson and Smith but I can't help but feel that the sum of parts lost is more than what the club brought in. It's not a terrible off-season for the Power, but at this stage I think they have hurt their premiership chances a little. 6.5/10

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - Punt Road Roar ( Danger in Texas )
IN - Mitchell Grigg (FA), Ricky Henderson (FA), Lewis Johnston (Trade), Michael Rischetelli (Trade)
OUT - Adam Carter (FA), Liam Shiels (FA), Nick Graham (Trade), Brent Staker (Trade)

The quietest team in the off-season saw minimal changes occur at Punt Road with only four new players arriving via trade or free agency. None of the four players brought in are big name players but all four should see significant game time in 2014. Henderson, Johnston and Rischetilli have all proven that they can score at this level and should immediately slot into the best 18. Grigg may take a little longer to develop but he has shown signs of being a very handy scorer. The Roar have done very well to pick him up as a free agent as he may be ready to break out this year or next.

Of the four players leaving the club, Shiels is probably the biggest loss with the young midfielder able to be relied on for consistent solid scores. The loss of Staker may also be felt with the key position player able to play at either end of the ground; his loss should be off-set somewhat though by the arrival of the younger Johnston. Losing Nick Graham is unlikely to be felt by the club any time soon and all in all the Roar have done well to limit their losses.

Summary: Not a lot of off-season moves for the Roar but that doesn't mean it's not a success. The players brought into the club have all proven that they can score well or at the very least have shown signs of doing so in the near future. Punt Road won't be losing any sleep over the players leaving the club either which suggests to me that the club has done well. 7.5/10

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - Rottnest Razorbacks ( @peterss )
IN - Will Minson (FA), Andrew Carrazzo (Trade), Leigh Adams (Trade), Michael Hibberd (Trade), Jay Schulz (Trade), Dale Thomas (Trade), Pick 6, Luke Dahlhaus (Trade), Pick 37
OUT - Sam Kerridge (FA), Dion Prestia (Trade), Jon Griffin (Trade), Adam Goodes (Trade), Leigh Montagna (Trade), Bachar Houli (Trade), Jarrod Harbrow (Trade), Pick 51

An interesting off-season for the Razorbacks with the club picking up some quality players while at the same time losing some real talent. The biggest coup for Rottnest was the acquisition of Will Minson in free agency, somehow picking him up on a cheap three year deal. Minson is arguably the best ruckman in the competition and will be straight into the starting side alongside other new recruits in Hibberd, Schulz, Adams and Thomas. With the Razorbacks light on for key forwards, Schulz is a particularly handy pickup while Thomas, Adams and Hibberd are proven performers when fit. Carrazzo could also be a starting player if he stays fit and plays a non-tagging role while Dahlhaus is waiting to break out at any moment. Gaining pick will also result in a solid young recruit for Rottnest.

The biggest loss for the Razorbacks is without a doubt Dion Prestia. The little midfielder is both young and a proven performer and his loss will be felt for many seasons. Montagna and Goodes are also proven performers and their loss will be hard to cover, but unlike Prestia these two players are now in the twilight of their careers. Houli should be instantly replaced by Hibberd on the halfback line but the loss of Harbrow may be harder to cover. Sam Kerridge should be a player of note in the future but as of right now he is only just trying to break into the big league. Jon Griffin was surplus to needs with Naitanui and now Minson on the list and as such his loss is easily covered.

Summary: Some really talented players have left the Razorbacks via trade but the club has managed to bring in a couple of quality in their place. Gaining Minson via free agency is a huge coup but the success of this off season for Rottnest will likely come down to if the players brought into the club can stay injury free. 7.5/10

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - St Kilda Titans ( @ShaunDuggan )
IN - Taylor Hunt (FA), Adam Carter (FA), Shaun Burgoyne (FA), Josh Bruce (FA), Troy Chaplin (Trade), Jake Stringer (Trade), Matthew Buntine (Trade), Pick 3, Travis Cloke (Trade), Elliott Kavanagh (Trade), Jarryd Roughead (Trade), Tom Scully (Trade), Jack Watts (Trade), Daniel Talia (Trade), Pick 61, Pick 29
OUT - Daniel Merrett (FA), Pick 30, Scott Gumbleton (Trade), Jack Gunston (Trade), Pick 10, Pick 48, Stephen Hill (Trade), Jarrod Witts (Trade), Sam Mitchell (Trade), Harley Bennell (Trade), Shaun Hampson (Trade)

Roughead and Cloke. It doesn't get much better than that for key forward players and luckily enough for the Titans they acquired both this off-season. One of the hardest positions to fill are now filled for the foreseeable future. When you add to this the acquisition of two former number one draft picks in Tom Scully and Jack Watts you can start to see how well the Titans have done this off-season. That is without even mentioning key defenders Talia, Bruce and Chaplin, recent top draftees Stringer, Buntine and Kavanagh. All the above players are likely to play significant roles in the near future for the club. Obtaining Burgoyne and Pick 3 overall just rubs salt into the wounds for other teams. Normally the acqusitions of Taylor Hunt and Adam Carter would get a mention but in this case you could forgive me for overlooking them.

OK so the Titans didn't get all of the above players without taking a hit somewhere along the way. Harley Bennell and Sam Mitchell are the biggest hits, particularly Bennell who is likely to be a top scorer for many years. Losing Gumbleton and Gunston hurts the key forward depth but when you have Cloke and Roughead it kind of eases the pain. Stephen Hill and Witts are starting to develop into solid players and as such their loss will be felt in the future as will the loss of Shaun Hampson. Losing Daniel Merrett via free agency hurts the depth of the team but the key defender acquisitions more than make up for that loss.

Summary: A very, very good off-season for the Titans puts them immediately into the premiership picture for 2014. Some absolutely star quality recruits backed up by some more than handy players means St Kilda should be more than satisfied with their work. Losing Bennell and Mitchell hurts but are acceptable losses when you look at the ins. 9.5/10

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - Wagga Wagga Warthogs ( @Gee Dub )
IN - Luke Breust (FA), Adam Tomlinson (FA), Jarrod Witts (Trade), Tendai Mzungu (Trade), Leroy Jetta (Trade), Pick 44, Pick 12, Bryce Gibbs (Trade)
OUT - Shaun Burgoyne (FA), Stewart Crameri (FA), Ricky Henderson (FA), Elliott Kavanagh (Trade), Arryn Siposs (Trade), Pick 46, Zac Smith (Trade), Marc Murphy (Trade)

The Wagga Wagga Warthogs are looking to push higher up the ladder in 2014 and adding Bryce Gibbs and Luke Breust will definitely help in this regard. Both players are brilliant scorers and will slot seamlessly into the starting 18. Mzungu should also make an immediate impact at the club while Leroy Jetta will add some depth to the squad. Tomlinson and Witts are both beginning to make an impact in their young careers and it would be unfair to expect too much from them too soon. Adding pick 12 should mean another quality youngster is added to the list.

The Warthogs have been hit pretty hard with free agency departures, losing Burgoyne, Crameri and Henderson for nothing in return. All three players would have likely been members of the Warthogs starting 18. Kavanagh and Siposs are both young and their departures are likely to hurt the club in later years but the loss of Marc Murphy will be felt immediately. The former number one pick is still young but at his best is one of the better players in the league. Trading away Zac Smith is a definite gamble with the tall youngster being tagged as one of the future premier ruckmen in the league. Injuries though have held him back in recent seasons and as a result his future output is in doubt.

Summary: Gibbs and Breust are big ins for the club while Witts and Tomlinson are likely types for the future. The Warthogs have been hurt with free agency departures though with all three players regular contributors for Wagga Wagga in the past. Take those departures out and the off-season could be considered a success. With them though and a lot comes down to the future output of Witts and Tomlinson. 6.5/10

 

[Gee Dub]

I traded Murphy for Gibbs. Now do it again and do it right this time @fightingfury_88

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - West End Riots ( @PVF )
IN - Stephen Hill (Trade), Pick 39, Dean Terlich (Trade), Hayden Ballantyne (Trade), Xavier Ellis (Trade), Pick 24, Todd Goldstein (Trade), Colin Garland (Trade), Will Schofield (Trade), Jarrad Grant (Trade), Jared Petrenko (Trade)
OUT - Josh Bruce (FA), Daniel Cross (FA), Heritier Lumumba (FA), Travis Cloke (Trade), Jesse Lonergan (Trade), Kane Lucas (Trade), Zach Tuohy, Pick 15, Hamish Hartlett (Trade), Sam Mayes (Trade), Jon Giles (Trade), Andrew Phillips (Trade), Ben Kennedy (Trade)

The Riots have managed to bring some young talent into the squad this off-season but the biggest acquisition is ruckman Todd Goldstein. One of the best ruckman in the league, Goldstein will add a consistent scoring punch from one of the tougher scoring positions on the field. Stephen Hill and Dean Terlich are nice young acquisitions while Jarrad Grant had a breakout end to his 2013 season and could be a coup for the club if he keeps that form going. The key defensive stocks at West End should be secure with Schofield, and Garland traded into the club while the acquisition of Ballantyne adds some instant punch to the forwardline. If Ellis and Petrenko can recapture some of their best form then they too could be handy additions to the team.

A lot of change has occurred at West End this off-season with a total of 12 players leaving the club via trade and free agency. The biggest loss is that of Travis Cloke; a proven performer as a key forward for multiple seasons and likely many more. Hamish Hartlett has also shown glimpses of being a great backline scorer and losing him along with Tuohy and Lumumba certainly weakens the general defender depth. The loss of Lonergan, Lucas, Mayes and Kennedy may not be felt immediately but it will definitely hurt the team's future potential. Losing Cross shouldn't hurt too much and letting Josh Bruce go is covered by the acquisition of Schofield and Garland. The ruck depth has taken a definite hit with Giles and Phillips finding a new home but Goldstein is more than adequate cover for the two.

Summary: Lots of changes at the Riots, some good and some bad but overall they should have got more from their trades. The Goldstein addition is brilliant but the Travis Cloke trade in particular should have netted a lot more for the club and this could hurt the Riots ability to win games in the future. 6/10

 

[fightingfury_88]

I traded Murphy for Gibbs. Now do it again and do it right this time @fightingfury_88

Luckily for me the two are pretty interchangeable in my summary.

 

[fightingfury_88]

Trading and Free Agency Summary - Western Vultures ( @sante )
IN - Tom Liberatore (FA), Sam Kerridge (FA), Heritier Lumumba (FA), Luke Delaney (Trade), Pick 41, Pick 5, Heath Shaw (Trade), Viv Michie (Trade), Brad McKenzie (Trade), Arryn Siposs (Trade), Pick 46
OUT - Luke McGuane (FA), Shane Edwards (Trade), Pick 56, Mitch Wallis (Trade), Pick 18, Clinton Young (Trade), Pick 38, Mark Baguley (Trade), Ben Sinclair (Trade), Tendai Mzungu (Trade), Leroy Jetta (Trade)

After winning the premiership in 2013 you could excuse the Vultures somewhat for doing nothing in the off-season. That's not the case though with the reigning premiers doing everything they can to manage their list and keep their club at the top of the pile in 2014. Lumumba and Liberatore are big free agency acquisition who will add plenty in 2014. Liberatore is likely to be a future elite in this league and the only question about him is the size of his contract. Heath Shaw is already a premier defender already in the league and will be a first 18 player for the premiers every week. Kerridge, McKenzie, Michie and Siposs are all nice players for the future and should be pushing for senior positions in coming years. Luke Delaney will also add depth to the key back position, one of the few positions that the Vultures are wanting in a little. Gaining pick 5 means the Vultures can recruit another young recruit to keep the squad turning over in the future.

The biggest loss for the Vultures is that of Mitch Wallis. In 2012 Mitch showed he has the potential to be a potent scorer in the league but last year a role change saw his numbers take a dive. Mzungu is also a heavy loss with the midfielder a consistent performer for the Vultures in past seasons. Sinclair, Edwards, McGuane, Young and Baguley were all most likely depth players in 2014 and as such they should be readily replaced while trading out Leroy Jetta may actually be a positive for the Vultures.

Summary: Any time the reigning premiers can improve their list through the off season is a success in my eyes. The players brought into the club should score more than those who left which leaves the Vultures in a strong position to defend their title in 2014. 8/10

 

[sante]

Going to be an interesting year that's for sure.

#back2back

 

[sante]

Thought I'd bump this after a year. How close was fightingfury_88 with his predictions?

 

[fightingfury_88]

Thought I'd bump this after a year. How close was fightingfury_88 with his predictions?

I don't know about the rest of them, but I'm quite happy with the very last sentence of my analysis:

"Summary: Any time the reigning premiers can improve their list through the off season is a success in my eyes. The players brought into the club should score more than those who left which leaves the Vultures in a strong position to defend their title in 2014. 8/10"