2014 AFL Draft - Top 40 Player Rankings

[BehindTheGoals]

This is not a phantom draft but a ranking of players formed from their football statistics and performances over 2013/14 and their individual scope for improvement based on height, weight, age, etc...

For WA and SA players, the spreadsheet shows their U18 National Carnival Statistics but their WAFL and SANFL stats have also been taken into account.

For the rest of the states, the spreadsheet shows their TAC Cup Home & Away Statistics but their U18 National Carnival stats have also been taken into account.

In my opinion, there are five clear standouts (all midfielders), then a very even second tier of 22 players, followed by a third tier of talent comprised of 13 players.

Compared to other phantom drafts and media predictions, I think Bampton, Cavka, McKenzie and the Tassie pair of Hislop and Jones are underrated, whereas I think De Goey, Durdin, Weller and WA trio Pickett, Garlett and Smith have all been overrated.

Hope you enjoy and will be interesting to look back on in a few years time.

 

[TheDarkDwarf]

Lies, damned lies and statistics. But I love the way you have done this. And with a few exceptions the Phantom drafters aren't that dissimilar. I have had the feeling that the Dees have done well with getting Stretch at 42, this just backs up what a few others have been saying. Well done, nice differentiation on a theme.

 

[Demon 16]

can you explain how you've arrived at the rankings a little more?

 

[Jacks Darlings]

Interesting approach no Waterman who was close to the best player this year in the WAFL colts, and would've played seniors but Claremont don't allow it

 

[Procrastinator35]

The fact that Caleb Hislop ranks at 17, pretty much says it all about this approach!!!

 

[BehindTheGoals]

Lies, damned lies and statistics. But I love the way you have done this. And with a few exceptions the Phantom drafters aren't that dissimilar. I have had the feeling that the Dees have done well with getting Stretch at 42, this just backs up what a few others have been saying. Well done, nice differentiation on a theme.

The Dees are pretty happy with taking Stretch with their third round pick (42) as rated him high enough to part with pick 23 for him in the father-son bidding.
Great athlete with elite speed and endurance, just needs to bulk up a bit and get more penetration in his kicking, but excelled for Glenelg in their last few games for the season.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Weller not in the Top 40?

 

[BehindTheGoals]

Interesting approach no Waterman who was close to the best player this year in the WAFL colts, and would've played seniors but Claremont don't allow it

The fact that 17 other clubs elected not to bid on him and West Coast will take him with pick 123 is probably a fair indication that he's not in this year's top 40.

 

[BehindTheGoals]

can you explain how you've arrived at the rankings a little more?

I've arrived at the rankings from watching them play, stats, scope for improvement and subjective opinion. For instance, Laverde and De Goey are similar in height, weight, age and stats over both TAC Cup and the National Carnival yet I believe Laverde will be a far superior player from watching them play - has more tricks in his bag and is very competitive + versatile.

 

[TN25]

Great effort BehindTheGoals with the stats

 

[Demon 16]

I've arrived at the rankings from watching them play, stats, scope for improvement and subjective opinion. For instance, Laverde and De Goey are similar in height, weight, age and stats over both TAC Cup and the National Carnival yet I believe Laverde will be a far superior player from watching them play - has more tricks in his bag and is very competitive + versatile.

Ok I see, so you haven't ranked them based purely on a formula using their stats? You allowed for some subjectivity in there?

 

[BehindTheGoals]

The fact that Caleb Hislop ranks at 17, pretty much says it all about this approach!!!

Some notes on Hislop - Good midfield size at 184cm, ball magnet and among the highest kicking efficiencies in the TAC Cup. Not turning 19 til mid-May next year.

Over three games for Tassie in the National Championships, Hislop averaged 21 disposals, 4 tackles and 3 clearances, with just under half of his possessions contested (48%). He was in the top 5 disposal winners on the ground twice against QLD and NT and picked up 15 disposals going head to head with Isaac Heeney (18 disposals) in the game they lost to eventual division two winners NSW/ACT.

In four TAC Cup matches, Tassie played 3 eventual finalists and only managed one win by 2 points, but Hislop still racked up some impressive numbers, finishing in the top two disposal winners on the ground in every game he played. Against Dandenong, who went on to make the prelim final in the TAC Cup, he was the leading possession winner on the ground racking up 32 touches at 70% kicking efficiency, 9 more than the leading disposal winner for the opposition, despite going down by 26 points. When Tassie lost to the Northern Knights by 38 points, Hislop was the second highest possession winner on the ground with 31 touches, just behind teammate Tim Jones. Against the Murray Bushrangers, he again notched up 31 touches at 84% efficiency to finish with the second most possessions on the ground, again behind teammate Tim Jones who starred with 43 touches and 7 tackles. In Tassie’s final game of the TAC Cup against 4th place North Ballarat, Hislop was again the second highest possession winner on the ground behind Jones, this time gaining 38 possessions with a kicking efficiency of 76%.

What is it they say about drunk people speaking the truth? ;-)

 

[BehindTheGoals]

Weller not in the Top 40?

Yeah, as mentioned in the intro I think Weller is overrated by many, especially those who have him in the top 10. In four games in the TAC Cup, he only notched up more than 17 possessions twice and when he did get it, he missed the target more than he hit it with a poor kicking efficiency of 44%, the lowest in my list of the top 50 players in the TAC Cup this year.

In the National Carnival, he played a great game against NT, racking up 25 touches, 6 tackles and 2 goals in a QLD team that won by 30 points. But I thought he was underwhelming in his other two state performances never achieving more than 15 disposals and not getting in the top 15 disposal winners on the ground against QLD or the top 10 against NSW/ACT.

Could very easily be proven wrong in the years to come, but based on the stats and from what I’ve seen, I think there are quite a few ahead of him.

 

[BehindTheGoals]

Ok I see, so you haven't ranked them based purely on a formula using their stats? You allowed for some subjectivity in there?

Yep, correct.

 

[Demon 16]

Yep, correct.

Pickett is one you've left out that gets quite a bit of attention from others, and to a lesser extent Garlett.

You don't rate him?

 

[Procrastinator35]

Some notes on Hislop - Good midfield size at 184cm, ball magnet and among the highest kicking efficiencies in the TAC Cup. Not turning 19 til mid-May next year.

Over three games for Tassie in the National Championships, Hislop averaged 21 disposals, 4 tackles and 3 clearances, with just under half of his possessions contested (48%). He was in the top 5 disposal winners on the ground twice against QLD and NT and picked up 15 disposals going head to head with Isaac Heeney (18 disposals) in the game they lost to eventual division two winners NSW/ACT.

In four TAC Cup matches, Tassie played 3 eventual finalists and only managed one win by 2 points, but Hislop still racked up some impressive numbers, finishing in the top two disposal winners on the ground in every game he played. Against Dandenong, who went on to make the prelim final in the TAC Cup, he was the leading possession winner on the ground racking up 32 touches at 70% kicking efficiency, 9 more than the leading disposal winner for the opposition, despite going down by 26 points. When Tassie lost to the Northern Knights by 38 points, Hislop was the second highest possession winner on the ground with 31 touches, just behind teammate Tim Jones. Against the Murray Bushrangers, he again notched up 31 touches at 84% efficiency to finish with the second most possessions on the ground, again behind teammate Tim Jones who starred with 43 touches and 7 tackles. In Tassie’s final game of the TAC Cup against 4th place North Ballarat, Hislop was again the second highest possession winner on the ground behind Jones, this time gaining 38 possessions with a kicking efficiency of 76%.

What is it they say about drunk people speaking the truth? ;-)

Methinks you miss the point entirely....He played in Division 2, therefore his stats are mega over-inflated due to playing against weaker teams with a sub-standard opposition, when in comparison to Division 1....In other words, his stats & most of the division 2 boys you have in that list are highly inflated.

Ergo, your measure is not an accurate & objective gauge by any means!

 

[BehindTheGoals]

Methinks you miss the point entirely....He played in Division 2, therefore his stats are mega over-inflated due to playing against weaker teams with a sub-standard opposition, when in comparison to Division 1....In other words, his stats & most of the division 2 boys you have in that list are highly inflated.

Ergo, your measure is not an accurate & objective gauge by any means!

You think I missed your point of calling me drunk to rank players using this approach by singling out only 1 of 40 players who I had ranked in a position you didn’t agree with?

I’m well aware that Caleb Hislop is from a state that isn’t eligible to play Division 1 meaning he played in Division 2 at the National Championships, along with a few other players you might be aware of, including Isaac Heeney who many think is up there with the best in the draft and Melbourne bid pick 2 on and Jack Steele, who North Melbourne were willing to part with pick 15 for.

As mentioned, Hislop averaged 21 disposals in the National Championships although this doesn’t seem to carry much weight or bear much importance to you because “he played in Division 2, therefore his stats are mega over-inflated”.

Incidentally, in the same Division 2 National Championships, Heeney only had more than 21 touches once (partly because in one game he was held to only 18 disposals by Hislop when they went head to head) with 39% of his possessions contested, compared to 48% of Hislops, while Steele also averaged 21 disposals (same as Hislop) across the Championships.

Additionally, in 5 and 6 games in the TAC Cup respectively, both Heeney and Steele averaged less disposals (21 and 25 respectively, compared to Hislop with 33) and had a lower kicking efficiency (60% and 63% respectively compared to Hislop with 68%).

Does that mean you don’t rate Heeney or Steele either because they played in Division 2 and their stats are mega over-inflated too?

Hard to agree with you when Caleb Hislop dominated the TAC Cup games he played in, against the same opposition players from top teams that were eligible and many of whom played in the Division 1 Championships.

Maybe try doing some research yourself and comparing players across the same level of competition before making broad, sweeping generalisations about one particular player. Drafting is not an exact science and of course there is no “accurate & objective gauge” to measure how a junior footballer will develop in the future but at least I’m willing to put up my ideas for public consumption and back them up with facts and comparisons when challenged, rather than ignorant diatribe.

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

I love this stuff

 

[Winners Only]

Great stuff behind the goals!

I must say its nice to see an approach which is not completely Victoria centric and following previous phantom drafts in how the ratings are applied.

I find it humurous that of all the Under 18 players around Australia that every so called draft expert is based out of Melbourne. TAC has produced some great players over the years but surely there is as many players outside of VIC with the qualities of these highly rated TAC players?

The other states have got to get better at developing and selling their players!

 

[Frank J Moose]

The other states have got to get better at developing and selling their players!

The WAFL Colts and all WA underage football is funded by the WAFC which receives most of its funding from the WA sides in the AFL. Why would they put money into something that would benefit the other AFL clubs without any benefit to them?

 

[Winners Only]

The WAFL Colts and all WA underage football is funded by the WAFC which receives most of its funding from the WA sides in the AFL. Why would they put money into something that would benefit the other AFL clubs without any benefit to them?

Because they get a significant lump sum payment when players are drafted, which is graduated depending on which round they are drafted. Why do you think the TAC teams have beome so good at it, they make 100's of thousands out having their players drafted!

 

[eaglespremiers]

The other states have got to get better at developing and selling their players!

Yeah because that's been a problem for us in the recent past.

 

[Frank J Moose]

Because they get a significant lump sum payment when players are drafted, which is graduated depending on which round they are drafted. Why do you think the TAC teams have beome so good at it, they make 100's of thousands out having their players drafted!

But the money for draftees from the WAFL clubs comes from the WAFC (Dockers and Eagles) and not the AFL. And because of the funding issues the WAFC have cut the draftee payments to the WAFL clubs. It is why the acadamies exist, Sydney et. al would not fund NSW juniors withiut a benefit. The AFL fund the Vic System (all 18 clubs contribute) but expect the WAFL and the SANFL to be funded by the WA and SA clubs

 

[SwiftNShuey]

Tim Jones anyone? Future Dane Swan.