NatTheKnifeFyfe
Debutant
- Jul 21, 2014
- 141
- 98
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Banned
- #551
Gray should get votes taken off him for embarrassing himself twice from 15m out
2014 Brownlow discussion thread
- Thread starter DV2000
- Start date
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cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
- 23,442
- 58,615
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
That's fine if you think that. But it's no secret he is having an absolute blinder of a year. He might've played well in a handful of games in each season in the past and even received votes in those games but this season he has been playing those types of games far more often than not. With Mitchell out for half the season he's also become our main midfielder and clearance winner for the first time in his career. With few other Hawk midfielders starring like he has in our wins he is most likely to pick up votes - even in games where our forwards have starred.
But like I said, he does have a poor polling history which could have more to do with his hot headedness towards umpires than the secondary roles he's played in the past. We'll see what happens on the night. His current odds of $11 (which have really come in the last few weeks) suggest he is not without a chance. My tip is still Selwood as above though.
The last few years, I've seen a lot of losing sides attract votes. Surely one of our statisticians here could enlighten us on the times its happened
- Mar 20, 2007
- 28,223
- 24,744
- AFL Club
- West Coast
I wasnt debating that players in losing sides can attract votes. They clearly can
I was debating the idea that Umpires will vote for a player if they are in the newspaper that week.
oh, ok fair enough. Still reckon as Hinkley said. Gray was more damaging with his disposals. Its easy to count disposals and pick a best player.
- Mar 20, 2007
- 28,223
- 24,744
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Neale still had 17 Contested possessions, 6 Clearances, 3 Inside 50's and 2 Goal assists from his 34 at 70%
I'd say that Gray played a better all round game, but I still think Freo winning will give Neale the 3 votes.
As you said, i'd love more detailed stats on players from losing sides getting the three votes. From what I gather unless the player is a clear standout as the best on ground, umpires tend to prefer to vote from the team that won the game.I dont think the difference in Grays to Neales game was large enough to justify him getting the 3. Its a flawed system after all
Whether or not Gray gets 3 or 2, i'd still say he is a couple of votes off the lead
I have a feeling Rockliff could be in with a real chance. Looking at last season he polls well in losing games.
- May 16, 2014
- 12,163
- 15,984
- AFL Club
- Carlton
FWIW (i.e. not much) here's my first draft for a final poll - will review certain games and certain players over next couple of weaks
1. Nat Fyfe 25*
1. Gary Ablett 25
1. Robbie Gray 25
(repeat of '96, with 3 winners but only 2 medallists)
4. Joel Selwood 24
5. Tom Rockliff 23*
5. Scott Pendlebury 23
7. Brent Harvey 22*
8. Trent Cotchin 20
9. Josh Kennedy 19
10. Patrick Dangerfield 17
10. Jordan Lewis 17
10. Lance Franklin 17
Notable others:
=13. Dyson Heppell 16
=13. Luke Parker 16
=15. Dayne Beams 15
=28. Jobe Watson 12
=35. Steve Johnson 10 (notable player who will be reviewed - gut feeling says I've under-voted him, may affect Selwood upon review)
=105. Alex Rance 3
Robbie Gray got 2 in the last round from me. 3 and he wins it outright. 1 and Ablett is the sole medallist.
edit: And obviously there's ranges, will work out likely ranges over the next couple of weeks. I have Ablett 23-28, with the GC v Hawthorn, GC v Sydney and GC v West Coast games the big ones.
1. Nat Fyfe 25*
1. Gary Ablett 25
1. Robbie Gray 25
(repeat of '96, with 3 winners but only 2 medallists)
4. Joel Selwood 24
5. Tom Rockliff 23*
5. Scott Pendlebury 23
7. Brent Harvey 22*
8. Trent Cotchin 20
9. Josh Kennedy 19
10. Patrick Dangerfield 17
10. Jordan Lewis 17
10. Lance Franklin 17
Notable others:
=13. Dyson Heppell 16
=13. Luke Parker 16
=15. Dayne Beams 15
=28. Jobe Watson 12
=35. Steve Johnson 10 (notable player who will be reviewed - gut feeling says I've under-voted him, may affect Selwood upon review)
=105. Alex Rance 3
Robbie Gray got 2 in the last round from me. 3 and he wins it outright. 1 and Ablett is the sole medallist.
edit: And obviously there's ranges, will work out likely ranges over the next couple of weeks. I have Ablett 23-28, with the GC v Hawthorn, GC v Sydney and GC v West Coast games the big ones.
Rocky has lost the Brownlow with his last week out due to illness. Always next season Rocky and hopefully he can keep his cool and not lose out on 4 games due to illness/suspension
Little Toddy Grima
Draftee
- Oct 23, 2012
- 16
- 5
- AFL Club
- Geelong
There's no way gray will get 25 votes. what games have you got him polling in? every chance he will only be on 4 votes by round 9.
surely selwood wins it after his 3 votes this round
- May 16, 2014
- 12,163
- 15,984
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Actual votes in brackets, given range and explanation
Round 1: 0-2 (1) - Wines 3 for me, but Polec could take the 3, and tbh I don't think Wines and Polec have a stranglehold on the 3-2, feasible that Gray gets 1-2 here and Westhoff misses out (even with 5 goals)
Round 5: 2-3 (3) - gave him 3, Ebert could possibly take it though, maybe Darling
Round 6: 1-2 (1) - Boak 3, Hartlett 2 (possibly Gray), Ebert only other chance for 1 as Lobbe, Cornes won't poll
Round 7: 1 - Boak clear 3, Ward 2, Gray 1
Round 11: 2-3 (3) - Boak a chance for 3, thought Gray performed better over 4 quarters
Round 12: 2-3 (3) - 25 disposals and 4 goals, Hartlett possible 3 but felt Gray was stronger around the stoppages under the umpires nose
Round 14: 1-3 (3) - might only get 1 behind Wines-Schulz, but Schulz kicked 4 of his 7 when the game was done and dusted in junktime (last 3 of the match), and Gray was a bit flashier than Wines despite both being under the umpires nose
Round 16: 2 - Zaharakis clear BOG in a win, Gray gets the 2 in a loss with 30 disposals and 1 goal
Round 21: 2-3 (3) - Hartlett could take the 3, but Gray had 26 disposals (20 contested), 11 inside 50s and 9 clearances - umps do look at stats pretty sure
Round 22: 3 - BOG
Round 23: 1-3 (2) - Neale BOG imo, Schulz junktime goals, Ballantyne was ok, Gray gets 2 here though despite some bad disposal at times
So I have him 6x3, 2x2, 3x1, polling in 11 games for 25 votes. 17-27 for me, settled with 25 after looking at his consistency and him polling in 11 games is feasible. Round 13 he was good, but gave Franklin 3 Ebert 2 K.Jack 1 - Jack underrated in that game, Gray could easily get 1 though.
- Banned
- #563
Had probably 6 or 7 bogs in the 2nd half of the year. And a standout mid in the equal top team so 27 isnt impossible. Having said that umps don't particularly like him so could get a terrible run ala Goodwin 06
Bulldocker
Club Legend
Rory Sloane b.o.g today? Telling you people - go get some of the juicy 5/2 odds on Sloane to top the Crows votes..... if it's still available.
Out of interest how many votes do you think he'll get for his 44 possession effort against us a few weeks ago? Hawthorn seem to have a pretty good spread in their midfield which is probably why you didn't have anyone finish top 10 for the Coaches Award.
Not to sound derogatory but Lewis has a touch of the Rockliffs about him, gets a lot of handballs in close but doesn't have the hurt factor on the outside that the umps like.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Would still be 8 behind Danger minimum.
- Banned
- #568
Should
Should get 2 votes I think
Bulldocker
Club Legend
Would love you to be my bookie. If 8 votes was the line margin, I'd be in possession of your BMW and investment property by 23rd September!
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Danger won't poll in many other games, but has 6 BOG's, add another 3 for 1 vote here and there he is on 21 without thinking. Sloane at best was on 10-11 before today.
Bulldocker
Club Legend
Can't find any Brownlow tracker that has Danger picking up any more than 3 bog's but I will stand corrected if you do. By your assessment, you have him almost winning the medal. He has had an OK season IMO but has spent extended periods sitting up forward in many games - perhaps through having some niggles. But Sloane has been in the middle throughout and is a clearance machine. Anyway, guess we will all be wiser in a few weeks but I'm still fairly comfortable with my wager.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Not really but he will come in the top 7. People will be surprised, I won't. His big games are BOG's. Sloane as good as he is, his big games don't really mean BOG's, especially as his really big games he has Thompson who can EASILY take the 3. Danger has been borderline rubbish/injured, but has been damn good in those games. I have the winner on 26-28 give and take. Ablett is on 26-27 (depends if he polls in the 45 rubbish possession game vs Hawthorn)
- Banned
- #573
Can't have fyfe topping the count. He didn't have many games where he sustained his brilliance for 4 quarters. With mundy, neale, Barlow taking their fair share of bog's I can see fyfe polling a fair few 2's and being left in the low 20's
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Fyfe is the weird one, maybe I am harsh on him but I have him on 20 votes only. Barlow, Pav, etc steal votes.
- Jan 21, 2013
- 11,305
- 23,905
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
