2014 Brownlow discussion thread

[SterlingArcher]

Great analysis, but I would say he is no chance for votes in round 1 and 6. He is absolutely no chance for votes in round 14, little own the 3. The rest I agree with. Should finish on 20 - 22 votes.

The other factor is that over the past couple of years players have won the medal the year after a stand out year. Following this Selwood stands out. Still think its ablett on 24 votes with selwood and gray bringing up the tail on 20-22.

The other factor I'd take into account is that Gray has scored a total of 15 brownlow votes in 8 seasons. Clearly not a stand out to the umpires.

These are the ones i disagree on:

Won't poll in round 1 or round 6.
Could poll 2 in round 7 easily and boak wasn't clear 3 in round 7 it was Polec clear 3, gray and ward for 1/2.
Will poll 1, 2 or 3 in round 8 against freo, most likely 2.
Could poll 1,2,3 against Melbourne, could be 3 or tyson could take, i gave gray 2.
Rd.12 Hartlett was the best player, gray will only poll 2.
Rd.13 should poll 1 against Sydney, Buddy, Ebert, Gray were the clear 3.
Rd.14 Unlikely to poll, could MAYBE sneak 1.
Rd.16 could get anywhere from 1 to 3, Zaharakis was best on and Myers had a fantastic game for 4 quarter, probably 1 to Gray.
Rd.18 could easily poll 1 against Melbourne.
Rd.20 should get 2 against sydney, Mcglynn the 3 and JPK the 1, those 3 were the standouts, will either be 1 or 2 to gray.
Rd.21 Hartlett was the best on ground but sitting on the bench for the last 20 mins won't help, Gray will get 2 or 3 and bennell the 1.


and for your info umpires don't look at stats.

Cheers for the feedback guys, will definitely take that into consideration. If there's anything else that springs out at you when looking at my top 10, would like to hear it, after all we're all just trying to beat the bookies

thebarry - I think sometimes we can get too caught up with a players polling history - particularly when that player is widely considered that years most improved. Definitely agree with you re: Selwood though, and that may influence him. FWIW, he's the only one who I can see getting above 27 easily, the others really max out at 25. Selwood just has a wider range.

Young Gun - how many do you have Gray getting? About 20-22?

Thanks

 

[RobbieGray17]

Selwood for a much deserved brownlow win. This guy could easily end up with one of the most decorated careers of all time

Lol I can't help but laugh at that statement. Its an overused cliche

 

[Superstar swan]

Lol I can't help but laugh at that statement. Its an overused cliche

Really ?

3x premiership player
3 x all australian
1x all aust captan
2x best and fairest
Afl rising star
3x most courageous player award.

At 25 years old. Could easily add 1 or 2 more premierships / brownlows before he is done

 

[Roo Lives Again]

Lol I can't help but laugh at that statement. Its an overused cliche

really stupid comment

 

[RobbieGray17]

really stupid comment

Superstar swan man you've taken me too serious. It was a chuckle at most. I was trying to say I actually found myself laughing (For real) lighten up

 

[Noodleman]

Think Robbie gray could be the struggler this year. Umps need good form shoved in their face for 18 months + hearing it in the media. Might get more like 14 votes instead of 20

 

[Baudolino]

Could anyone who has Ablett polling more than 24 votes elaborate on the sequence of votes that allowed them to reach a 24+ tally? My prediction is that he's likely to poll 22 in total, but I genuinely can't see how the maximum of 24 could be exceeded. Of all my predictions below, only Round 7 vs North Melbourne and Round 12 vs Sydney stand out as possibilities for maybe one additional vote.

Predicted votes in brackets.

Round 1: 41 touches & 2 goals vs Richmond (3 votes)
Round 2: 24 touches vs Fremantle (0 votes)
Round 3: 38 touches & 3 goals vs Brisbane (3 votes)
Round 4: 35 touches & 1 goal vs Hawthorn (0 votes)
Round 5: 32 touches & 2 goals vs Melbourne (3 votes)
Round 6: 30 touches & 2 goals vs GWS (3 votes)
Round 7: 28 touches & 4 goals vs North Melbourne (2 votes)
Round 8: BYE
Round 9: 37 touches & 4 goals vs St Kilda (3 votes)
Round 10: 24 touches vs Western Bulldogs (0 votes)
Round 11: 25 touches & 2 goals vs Adelaide (0 votes)
Round 12: 37 touches & 1 goal vs Sydney (1 vote)
Round 13: 33 touches vs West Coast (0 votes)
Round 14: 33 touches & 1 goal vs Geelong (2 votes)
Round 15: 45 touches & 2 goals vs Hawthorn (2 votes)
Round 16: 19 touches vs Collingwood (0 votes)

Total: 22 votes

 

[PenAndPaper]

Could anyone who has Ablett polling more than 24 votes elaborate on the sequence of votes that allowed them to reach a 24+ tally? My prediction is that he's likely to poll 22 in total, but I genuinely can't see how the maximum of 24 could be exceeded. Of all my predictions below, only Round 7 vs North Melbourne and Round 12 vs Sydney stand out as possibilities for maybe one additional vote.

Predicted votes in brackets.

Round 1: 41 touches & 2 goals vs Richmond (3 votes)
Round 2: 24 touches vs Fremantle (0 votes)
Round 3: 38 touches & 3 goals vs Brisbane (3 votes)
Round 4: 35 touches & 1 goal vs Hawthorn (0 votes)
Round 5: 32 touches & 2 goals vs Melbourne (3 votes)
Round 6: 30 touches & 2 goals vs GWS (3 votes)
Round 7: 28 touches & 4 goals vs North Melbourne (2 votes)
Round 8: BYE
Round 9: 37 touches & 4 goals vs St Kilda (3 votes)
Round 10: 24 touches vs Western Bulldogs (0 votes)
Round 11: 25 touches & 2 goals vs Adelaide (0 votes)
Round 12: 37 touches & 1 goal vs Sydney (1 vote)
Round 13: 33 touches vs West Coast (0 votes)
Round 14: 33 touches & 1 goal vs Geelong (2 votes)
Round 15: 45 touches & 2 goals vs Hawthorn (2 votes)
Round 16: 19 touches vs Collingwood (0 votes)

Total: 22 votes

Will get votes in both of those games because he had over 30 possessions and the umps would have loved it. Also watch him get 3 votes in the second game against us.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

There is no way Ablett doesn't poll in the first game against Hawthorn. Will at least poll 2 if not 3.

 

[eth-dog]

Could anyone who has Ablett polling more than 24 votes elaborate on the sequence of votes that allowed them to reach a 24+ tally? My prediction is that he's likely to poll 22 in total, but I genuinely can't see how the maximum of 24 could be exceeded. Of all my predictions below, only Round 7 vs North Melbourne and Round 12 vs Sydney stand out as possibilities for maybe one additional vote.

Predicted votes in brackets.

Round 1: 41 touches & 2 goals vs Richmond (3 votes)
Round 2: 24 touches vs Fremantle (0 votes)
Round 3: 38 touches & 3 goals vs Brisbane (3 votes)
Round 4: 35 touches & 1 goal vs Hawthorn (2 votes)
Round 5: 32 touches & 2 goals vs Melbourne (3 votes)
Round 6: 30 touches & 2 goals vs GWS (3 votes)
Round 7: 28 touches & 4 goals vs North Melbourne (2 votes)
Round 8: BYE
Round 9: 37 touches & 4 goals vs St Kilda (3 votes)
Round 10: 24 touches vs Western Bulldogs (0 votes)
Round 11: 25 touches & 2 goals vs Adelaide (1 vote)
Round 12: 37 touches & 1 goal vs Sydney (1 vote)
Round 13: 33 touches vs West Coast (2 votes)
Round 14: 33 touches & 1 goal vs Geelong (2 votes)
Round 15: 45 touches & 2 goals vs Hawthorn (2 votes)
Round 16: 19 touches vs Collingwood (0 votes)

Total: 27 votes

Those are my changes, but I can see yours happening anyway

 

[tangolikelama]

Gray BOG vs freo according to the coaches

 

[thebarry111]

Gray BOG vs freo according to the coaches

Would get him to 21 votes at most. Can't win, was to quite in the first 9 games when Port was dominating. Played a lot of his standout games in losing teams meaning most likely he'll get 1 and 2 votes instead of the 3 needed to win.

 

[Mningasimisonda]

Mitch Duncan might steal some votes from Selwood last few rounds. Had a few blinders.

 

[RobbieGray17]

Think Robbie gray could be the struggler this year. Umps need good form shoved in their face for 18 months + hearing it in the media. Might get more like 14 votes instead of 20

what about Judd?

 

[RobbieGray17]

Would get him to 21 votes at most. Can't win, was to quite in the first 9 games when Port was dominating. Played a lot of his standout games in losing teams meaning most likely he'll get 1 and 2 votes instead of the 3 needed to win.

Wouldn't be so sure. Anything can happen. Umps always surprize us. He could get 3 votes in place of our other players particularly in the GWS game, everyone is backing Polec in. Also depends on if he gets good votes in losing games like Sydney.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Will get votes in both of those games because he had over 30 possessions and the umps would have loved it. Also watch him get 3 votes in the second game against us.

Was pretty poor against us IIRC.

 

[thehousesitter]

Thinking that it could be a four way tie between Robbie Gray, ben cunnington, joel selwood and gary ablett jnr.
All have been in awesome form this year!
#brownlowmedalprediction

 

[eaglespremiers]

what about Judd?

What about him?

 

[eaglespremiers]

Thinking that it could be a four way tie between Robbie Gray, ben cunnington, joel selwood and gary ablett jnr.
All have been in awesome form this year!
#brownlowmedalprediction

I don't know about Cunnington.
His second half of the year wasn't as good as the first half.

 

[RobbieGray17]

What about him?

Won the brownlow very early in his career.
2002 nothing (0)
2003 a little bit (12)
2004 bang! (30)

 

[RobbieGray17]

don't discount rockliff either. He's a popular votegetter in losing sides.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Won the brownlow very early in his career.
2002 nothing
2003 a little bit
2004 bang!

I don't think that is necessarily precedence for Gray as it was ten years ago, Judd was in his third season and with his clearances he stood out like a sore thumb.

 

[RobbieGray17]

I don't think that is necessarily precedence for Gray as it was ten years ago, Judd was in his third season and with his clearances he stood out like a sore thumb.

I think the key for Gray is both Sydney games
41 p 1st game, was utterly brilliant
similar in the second game.

Hopefully he gets 4 votes from those games. Irrespective of the game score, he was ******* good.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Mitch Duncan might steal some votes from Selwood last few rounds. Had a few blinders.

Possible, but Selwood (and Hawkins) was clearly the standout when the game was still in the balance. Selwood and Hawkins to split the five, in my opinion. Caddy and Duncan to fight over the one. Selwood's not going to poll from the Hawthorn game anyway. Could be fighting for a minor vote in the Fremantle game and for votes in the North game, but it's reasonable to assume that in games like that, the umpires would think 'When in doubt: Selwood.'

 

[thebarry111]

Cheers for the feedback guys, will definitely take that into consideration. If there's anything else that springs out at you when looking at my top 10, would like to hear it, after all we're all just trying to beat the bookies

thebarry - I think sometimes we can get too caught up with a players polling history - particularly when that player is widely considered that years most improved. Definitely agree with you re: Selwood though, and that may influence him. FWIW, he's the only one who I can see getting above 27 easily, the others really max out at 25. Selwood just has a wider range.

Young Gun - how many do you have Gray getting? About 20-22?

Thanks

Having a bit more of a look at Gray, Tyson should get both 3's for the melb vs Port games. I can't see him getting enough 3 vote games. The more I think about Gray the more I think the surprise will be to the downside rather than the upside.