2014 Brownlow discussion thread

[thebarry111]

I think the key for Gray is both Sydney games
41 p 1st game, was utterly brilliant
similar in the second game.

Hopefully he gets 4 votes from those games. Irrespective of the game score, he was ******* good.

Still think his issue will be that too many of his big games are in losing sides.

Still think Selwood then Ablett and then there's probably 4-5 players who could get the third place.

 

[Big Sauce 21]

BETJAM.com.au ‏@betjamcomau 1h
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[MC Extra Dollop]

BETJAM.com.au ‏@betjamcomau 1h
A VIP Private Bookmaker has just taken a $1 Million Bet on Tom Rockliff to poll the most votes for Brisbane at...

Anyone who makes a bet like that deserves to lose their money. C'mon, Hanley!

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Want Ablett to get it.

Triple brownlow medallist sounds great and would be richly deserved

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Want Ablett to get it.

Triple brownlow medallist sounds great and would be richly deserved

Agreed. Realistically, three is about the minimum he should have, by this stage. He could have easily taken out four or five by now. People forget that had Judd been suspended for his elbow on Pavlich in 2010, Ablett would have won that Brownlow as well, not Swan.

 

[Big Bryza]

Why are people expecting Selwood to win it? This has been one of his worst seasons IMO

Go through his figures. Had 7-10 games where he was clearly in the top 2 players on the ground. Inconsistent season but the umps love him.

 

[Bulldocker]

Go through his figures. Had 7-10 games where he was clearly in the top 2 players on the ground. Inconsistent season but the umps love him.

Yeh, if the ratio of soft free kicks is in line with votes awarded, I predict he may have a comfortable win on about 173 votes!

What pisses me off the most is that I have bet on him to win it pre-season for about the previous three seasons. Got all brave this year and went for the bolter with Tom Liberatore.
Ah well!

 

[Dan]

Pendlebury.

 

[DT_35]

Could anyone who has Ablett polling more than 24 votes elaborate on the sequence of votes that allowed them to reach a 24+ tally? My prediction is that he's likely to poll 22 in total, but I genuinely can't see how the maximum of 24 could be exceeded. Of all my predictions below, only Round 7 vs North Melbourne and Round 12 vs Sydney stand out as possibilities for maybe one additional vote.

Predicted votes in brackets.

Round 1: 41 touches & 2 goals vs Richmond (3 votes)
Round 2: 24 touches vs Fremantle (0 votes)
Round 3: 38 touches & 3 goals vs Brisbane (3 votes)
Round 4: 35 touches & 1 goal vs Hawthorn (0 votes)
Round 5: 32 touches & 2 goals vs Melbourne (3 votes)
Round 6: 30 touches & 2 goals vs GWS (3 votes)
Round 7: 28 touches & 4 goals vs North Melbourne (2 votes)
Round 8: BYE
Round 9: 37 touches & 4 goals vs St Kilda (3 votes)
Round 10: 24 touches vs Western Bulldogs (0 votes)
Round 11: 25 touches & 2 goals vs Adelaide (0 votes)
Round 12: 37 touches & 1 goal vs Sydney (1 vote)
Round 13: 33 touches vs West Coast (0 votes)
Round 14: 33 touches & 1 goal vs Geelong (2 votes)
Round 15: 45 touches & 2 goals vs Hawthorn (2 votes)
Round 16: 19 touches vs Collingwood (0 votes)

Total: 22 votes

Will definitely poll vs Hawthorn, just a matter of how many

Very interested to know who got the 3 vs North? I remember watching that game, Gaz kicked 3 in the last when the game was on the line, if he doesn't poll 3 it would be absolute joke.

Will get 1 at an absolute minimum vs Sydney. Wouldn't surprise me to see him pull 2.

Half a chance for 1 vs West Coast.

Easily BOG vs Hawthorn but umps may just give the 3 to Lewis because he was on the winning team.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Will definitely poll vs Hawthorn, just a matter of how many

Very interested to know who got the 3 vs North? I remember watching that game, Gaz kicked 3 in the last when the game was on the line, if he doesn't poll 3 it would be absolute joke.

Will get 1 at an absolute minimum vs Sydney. Wouldn't surprise me to see him pull 2.

Half a chance for 1 vs West Coast.

Easily BOG vs Hawthorn but umps may just give the 3 to Lewis because he was on the winning team.

Tom Lynch was outstanding in the game against North, but it's a massive stretch to think he'll get the three votes. Ablett is the obvious choice in that game.

 

[Big Bryza]

Pendlebury.

I'm telling you now, no chance. Save your money.

2 great value for money bets for mine are Michael Barlow and Jordan Lewis. Both performed very well when their side won throughout the season.

Still think Gazza will just hold on.

 

[Condon3]

I rate Lewis' season the equal of Goodwins in 06. Goodwin was screwed by the umps though. Wonder which highly rated player will have a stinker with the umps this year

Jordan could get as many as 24 votes or as few as 10 votes , probably somwhere in the middle , but been his best year which is saying something he has been elite for along time now , still he should top the voting for Hawthorn this year and win the B&F .
If Gary is ahead by 6+ at rnd 15 he wins .
Looking forward to see how 2 former hawks now in red and white share the votes ( Franklin / Kennedy ) .

 

[5 GB USB]

Selwood or Kennedy will win it, take your pick.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Agreed. Realistically, three is about the minimum he should have, by this stage. He could have easily taken out four or five by now. People forget that had Judd been suspended for his elbow on Pavlich in 2010, Ablett would have won that Brownlow as well, not Swan.

'Insufficient force' that lead Pav to having 6 stitches I believe it was... What a joke.

 

[Hawker55]

Anyone who makes a bet like that deserves to lose their money. C'mon, Hanley!

Most votes for Brisbane though - not to win it (from my reading). He'd be a decent chance of that.

 

[Pie in the Sky]

Pendlebury.

Hasn't been his best year by his standards, won't get many 3's I don't think. Hasn't really been a massive vote attracter in the past either, no chance.

 

[Watson_my_mind]

Just went through every game, looking at stats and reading match reports (probably watched 5-7 full games a weekend on average so have a good idea)

This is my top ten, pretty surprising:

28 Fyfe
27 Buddy
27 Gray
26 Ablett
26 Rockliff
25 Selwood
23 Heppell
19 Harvey
19 Beams
19 Boak
18 Lewis
18 Kennedy
17 Priddis
17 Johnson
16 Martin
16 Parker
16 Riewoldt
16 Sloane
15 Gibbs
15 Roughead

and Pendles on 14. Value bet here in my opinion is Buddy to place (does place include ineligible players?) I gave him a lot of 3's, if history shows, a fair bit of those should be 2's or 1's I guess.

 

[Hawkinspired]

What happened to that brownlow guru chap?

 

[Smartys Power]

Just went through every game, looking at stats and reading match reports (probably watched 5-7 full games a weekend on average so have a good idea)

This is my top ten, pretty surprising:

28 Fyfe
27 Buddy
27 Gray
26 Ablett
26 Rockliff
25 Selwood
23 Heppell
19 Harvey
19 Beams
19 Boak
18 Lewis
18 Kennedy
17 Priddis
17 Johnson
16 Martin
16 Parker
16 Riewoldt
16 Sloane
15 Gibbs
15 Roughead

and Pendles on 14. Value bet here in my opinion is Buddy to place (does place include ineligible players?) I gave him a lot of 3's, if history shows, a fair bit of those should be 2's or 1's I guess.

Smartys Power approves.

 

[thebarry111]

Just went through every game, looking at stats and reading match reports (probably watched 5-7 full games a weekend on average so have a good idea)

This is my top ten, pretty surprising:

28 Fyfe
27 Buddy
27 Gray
26 Ablett
26 Rockliff
25 Selwood
23 Heppell
19 Harvey
19 Beams
19 Boak
18 Lewis
18 Kennedy
17 Priddis
17 Johnson
16 Martin
16 Parker
16 Riewoldt
16 Sloane
15 Gibbs
15 Roughead

and Pendles on 14. Value bet here in my opinion is Buddy to place (does place include ineligible players?) I gave him a lot of 3's, if history shows, a fair bit of those should be 2's or 1's I guess.

I will bet that no player will be over 25 votes this year, little own 6.

Buddy was no chance to score votes in:

1,2,4,6,7,8,10,12,16,17,18,19,20,23

Very little chance for even 1 vote:

5,11

High probability he will score 2/3:

3, 9, 13, 14, 15, 21 and 22.

Even if he was to score 3 votes in all those games the most he could poll would be 21.

Just wondering which rounds you differ and think he could poll highly in?

Thanks

 

[DT_35]

What happened to that brownlow guru chap?

Lost all his money on Mitchell last year didn't he?

 

[Jugada]

Agreed. Realistically, three is about the minimum he should have, by this stage. He could have easily taken out four or five by now. People forget that had Judd been suspended for his elbow on Pavlich in 2010, Ablett would have won that Brownlow as well, not Swan.

and if Ablett got suspended for whacking Picken this year he wouldn't be a chance at this one..

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

and if Ablett got suspended for whacking Picken this year he wouldn't be a chance at this one..

That's true. I would suggest that the Judd incident seemed a lot more cut and dried than the Ablett one and that, from memory, Picken and the Bulldogs played a major role in getting Ablett off.

 

[Watson_my_mind]

I will bet that no player will be over 25 votes this year, little own 6.

Buddy was no chance to score votes in:

1,2,4,6,7,8,10,12,16,17,18,19,20,23

Very little chance for even 1 vote:

5,11

High probability he will score 2/3:

3, 9, 13, 14, 15, 21 and 22.

Even if he was to score 3 votes in all those games the most he could poll would be 21.

Just wondering which rounds you differ and think he could poll highly in?

Thanks

Wow thats very different to me, gave him full votes in round 5, and full votes in round 11, thought he was good, and I gave him extra cos of the media hype and the umpires would be noting his form etc.

Have him getting 3 votes in round 17 against blues, he kicked 6 and stood out heaps that game. The ones I agree with you are the rounds he didn't play.. just pushed him up to 3 votes a lot. He will probably only have 20 votes like his 2008 year.

 

[Power Raid]

with fyfe and ablett out, it doesn't seem like a real recognition this year