2014 Brownlow Medal

[I Lost My Keays]

Why?

I think he's going to lose a majority of votes from McVeigh , Jack , Hannebery , Buddy and Parker. Where as Geelong there isn't anyone that can steal votes from Selwood only players I can think of is Bartel and Duncan. For Gray the players which would steal the votes off Gray is Boak and Wingard

 

[DT_35]

Did this a while back nervous about Kennedy though View attachment 81492

I did the same haha. Would father Ablett win though as I was on him since the start

 

[JohnnyDrama1]

I think he's going to lose a majority of votes from McVeigh , Jack , Hannebery , Buddy and Parker. Where as Geelong there isn't anyone that can steal votes from Selwood only players I can think of is Bartel and Duncan. For Gray the players which would steal the votes off Gray is Boak and Wingard

I don't believe in stealing votes. Swan won a brownlow with Pendles not far behind. If a player is one of the favorites its because he has had a number of games where he has been in the best 3 players on the ground including numerous BOGs. Selwood and Johnson had 52 votes between them last year. No reason why a few people from the same team cant poll well, especially when its a team like Sydney who win so many games

 

[Jugada]

Inaccurate?

They picked 9 of the top 10 from last year.

Is picking 9 of the top 10 really that hard though?

 

[chrispaul3]

Does anybody have Sloane or Thompson challenging Dangerfield?
And opinions on Cunnington + Greenwood challenging Harvey?

 

[EightySix]

Any care to add their 2cents to the following without the short fav;

BRIS: Zorko > Hanley
FRE: Barlow > Mundy
GC: Prestia > Swallow
HAW: Roughead > Mitchell
WCE: Kennedy > Lecras

 

[Hamingja]

Where as Geelong there isn't anyone that can steal votes from Selwood only players I can think of is Bartel and Duncan.

There is this guy called Steve Johnson. Selwood's year is funny. He is going to blitz early, go cold through the middle of the year, and while he had good games towards the end he did a lot of his damage in first halves which the umps may have forgotten a little by the time they cast the votes.

 

[EightySix]

Does anybody have Sloane or Thompson challenging Dangerfield?
And opinions on Cunnington + Greenwood challenging Harvey?

Danger more certain than Boomer

 

[I Lost My Keays]

1. Selwood
2. Ablett
3. Gray

 

[bisazc887]

Is ablett a cert for the 3 in round 6 v gws?

 

[Rids]

Any care to add their 2cents to the following without the short fav;

BRIS: Zorko > Hanley
FRE: Barlow > Mundy
GC: Prestia > Swallow
HAW: Roughead > Mitchell
WCE: Kennedy > Lecras

I have Hanley and Mundy ahead of Zorko and Barlow for what it's worth

 

[Rids]

Predicting a Selwood/JPK tie

Strangely enough that's my tip as well with Ablett, Gray and Pendles (excl. Fyfe as ineligible) rounding out the top 5.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Strangely enough that's my tip as well with Ablett, Gray and Pendles (excl. Fyfe as ineligible) rounding out the top 5.

bombersno1 has convinced me to go with Selwood/Ablett quinella after looking at other brownlow threads. JPK injury will hurt him.........

 

[LukeParkerno1]

bombersno1 has convinced me to go with Selwood/Ablett quinella after looking at other brownlow threads. JPK injury will hurt him.........

JPK has the injury, plus the fact Parker, Franklin will rob him blind of potential 3 vote games!

 

[I Lost My Keays]

JPK has the injury, plus the fact Parker, Franklin will rob him blind of potential 3 vote games!

Out of a 100 how confident are you of a ablett/selwood quinella?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Out of a 100 how confident are you of a ablett/selwood quinella?

Honestly I can't see any other way (90% being conservative). People are getting jizzed about Gray but he is lucky to be on 5 votes in the early part. His best games have been in losses. Now whilst he CAN poll 3 in losses, he isn't Gary Ablett. Pendles is the danger but whether Collingwood have won enough is a concern. I have him coming 6th.

 

[Rids]

bombersno1 has convinced me to go with Selwood/Ablett quinella after looking at other brownlow threads. JPK injury will hurt him.........

Given every contender has a succession of non-polling games,, I suspect low to mid 20's will be enough to win this Brownlow. Kennedy has 10 probable (all with very good opportunity of 2 or 3 votes) and 2 other possible polling games - he is a huge threat to this quinella. Selwood and Ablett quinella is a strong chance no doubt but I just feel the odds are too short and on my model (probabilistic method) I have it less than a 1/3rd probability of occurring (which admittedly is still the 2nd best option).

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Honestly I can't see any other way (90% being conservative). People are getting jizzed about Gray but he is lucky to be on 5 votes in the early part. His best games have been in losses. Now whilst he CAN poll 3 in losses, he isn't Gary Ablett. Pendles is the danger but whether Collingwood have won enough is a concern. I have him coming 6th.

Agreed. Umpires notice GAJ and Selwood alot more

I don't think Collingwood has won more games to help Pendles climb up the board. I think my trifecta will be Selwood/GAJ/Buddy which is paing $41 which is very decent value

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Given every contender has a succession of non-polling games,, I suspect low to mid 20's will be enough to win this Brownlow. Kennedy has 10 probable (all with very good opportunity of 2 or 3 votes) and 2 other possible polling games - he is a huge threat to this quinella. Selwood and Ablett quinella is a strong chance no doubt but I just feel the odds are too short and on my model (probabilistic method) I have it less than a 1/3rd probability of occurring (which admittedly is still the 2nd best option).

I think Kennedy will poll around 17-18 votes this year.

Do you know what happens if there's a 3 way tie and you have a quinella?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Given every contender has a succession of non-polling games,, I suspect low to mid 20's will be enough to win this Brownlow. Kennedy has 10 probable (all with very good opportunity of 2 or 3 votes) and 2 other possible polling games - he is a huge threat to this quinella. Selwood and Ablett quinella is a strong chance no doubt but I just feel the odds are too short and on my model (probabilistic method) I have it less than a 1/3rd probability of occurring (which admittedly is still the 2nd best option).

Kennedy also has Parker, Buddy, Hannerberry (at stages), McGlynn stealing votes.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Kennedy also has Parker, Buddy, Hannerberry (at stages), McGlynn stealing votes.

From Memory McGlynn had very good games around 16-20?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Agreed. Umpires notice GAJ and Selwood alot more

I don't think Collingwood has won more games to help Pendles climb up the board. I think my trifecta will be Selwood/GAJ/Buddy which is paing $41 which is very decent value

I have the quinella, also got Selwood at $8 a few weeks back. Having a trifecta of Ablett/Selwood and then I'm going to box Buddy/Gray/Kennedy.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

From Memory McGlynn had very good games around 16-20?

Well and before that but it wouldn't be that surprising to see McGlynn poll.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I think Kennedy will poll around 17-18 votes this year.

Do you know what happens if there's a 3 way tie and you have a quinella?

They will pay all 3 outcomes, I am certain but 1/3 of the odds are taken away.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Is ablett a cert for the 3 in round 6 v gws?

Yes. Who else is getting the 3 then!