List Mgmt. 2014 Draft + DFA Talk Part II

Tiger68

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I'm sold on Corey Ells. Don't really care much about his pace. If he can average 22 disposals and 5 clearances and can damage oppositions with his ball use and decision making i'm sold. In addition to that he can play any role.
Yep agree, he will also slot in quickly which rightly or wrongly I think is a priority for the club. Could easily play round 1 as a competitive rebounding defender with damaging disposal. Could see him cementing a spot before Lennon through better competitiveness. I think he already has Houli's and Griggs measure. I'm sold he will be a player, no doubt, its just a question of his ceiling.

Its hard to understand why we might overlook Weller at 12, as he does look to be a game breaker with possibly more upside. Maybe they see Ellis as safer and would contribute more quickly? Maybe Ellis has the edge in coachability? Dimmer will be coaching for his job over the next 1-2 years, and as a supporter I want short term improvement as well.

I have started to look on Weller more favourably of late, particularly when I heard the speculation surrounding Scott Selwood. Under this scenario the sublime pace and skills of Weller would be the better compliment.

I think Wright, Lever and Durdin should be taken if you were strictly looking at best available. But the dimension that blurs debate is time. Best available for when and for how long will you get the peak? If the club is looking for a short term injection of quality a midfielder is the go.
 
I think the club might prefer Ellis over Weller because Ellis is supposed to have great hands in close and has a stronger contested game.

I'm like you though and prefer Weller for this pick but I'll back the club.
 
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Nov 9, 2014
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Honestly think we will take weller if he is there at 12. I rkn ellis is backup. Maybe the club feels weller wont be there when its our turn to pick. Therefore would want to invest heavily into ellis. Knowing duggan most likely gone aswell
 

Tiger68

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Honestly think we will take weller if he is there at 12. I rkn ellis is backup. Maybe the club feels weller wont be there when its our turn to pick. Therefore would want to invest heavily into ellis. Knowing duggan most likely gone aswell
If they do select Weller they will have played a very good game of poker. Seems they are not talking up Weller to the media, id love someone to ask the likes of Cal T "What makes you not link Weller to the tiges?" Or "seems the word is stronger for Ellis than Weller is that what you are hearing?
 
Nov 9, 2014
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If they do select Weller they will have played a very good game of poker. Seems they are not talking up Weller to the media, id love someone to ask the likes of Cal T "What makes you not link Weller to the tiges?" Or "seems the word is stronger for Ellis than Weller is that what you are hearing?
yeah apparently us and Collingwood were most interested. I know we were super keen on him a couple months back. Its going to be very interesting if its our pick and he is still there.
 
Mar 1, 2010
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Yep agree, he will also slot in quickly which rightly or wrongly I think is a priority for the club. Could easily play round 1 as a competitive rebounding defender with damaging disposal. Could see him cementing a spot before Lennon through better competitiveness. I think he already has Houli's and Griggs measure. I'm sold he will be a player, no doubt, its just a question of his ceiling.

Its hard to understand why we might overlook Weller at 12, as he does look to be a game breaker with possibly more upside. Maybe they see Ellis as safer and would contribute more quickly? Maybe Ellis has the edge in coachability? Dimmer will be coaching for his job over the next 1-2 years, and as a supporter I want short term improvement as well.

I have started to look on Weller more favourably of late, particularly when I heard the speculation surrounding Scott Selwood. Under this scenario the sublime pace and skills of Weller would be the better compliment.

I think Wright, Lever and Durdin should be taken if you were strictly looking at best available. But the dimension that blurs debate is time. Best available for when and for how long will you get the peak? If the club is looking for a short term injection of quality a midfielder is the go.

That's a solid case why a number of people may well face the sack within 24 months particularly in the list management area. Not only about ignoring quality but misunderstanding list needs and where the group is at with respect to windows and so forth!
 

T4P

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That's a solid case why a number of people may well face the sack within 24 months particularly in the list management area. Not only about ignoring quality but misunderstanding list needs and where the group is at with respect to windows and so forth!
Get off your high horse, you're delusional (not an opinion, a fact).

You're assuming we rate Ellis higher than Weller. You're assuming that if we did, there is no good reason to rate him higher. Your opinion over professionals who watch hundreds of hours of footage and rank them very specifically.
 
Mar 1, 2010
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Get off your high horse, you're delusional (not an opinion, a fact).

Ynote e assuming we rate Ellis higher than Weller. You're assuming that if we did, there is no good reason to rate him higher. Your opinion over professionals who watch hundreds of hours of footage and rank them very specifically.


I am not assuming anything.

I am predicting a few things based on current list assessments.

Heppell has had a more accomplished career than Conca atm. It is difficult to argue Heppell was not rated higher at draft time.

Some are getting paid good money to make professional decisions on behalf of players and fans who have invested a lot of time over the years.

If the required level of professionalism is not being met to stakeholders clearly it is their entitlement as for any investors to take action.

Stakeholders are looking for precision not window dressing and if what is required is an art any science proposals will likely fall on deaf ears!

Likewise those rating Tambling ahead of Franklin and Rough head clearly should not be in highly responsible positions atm and possibly even Griffen.
 
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Tango67

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Ok ok I apologise Ellis is a mid, I saw him listed as a utility on a phantom draft
It's funny how he doesn't even get listed in the draft profiles on this board, we'll not in the first 4 pages anyway?
The only info I could find was snippets in a phantom draft and Emma Q's power rankings where she has him listed at 18.
 
Jan 13, 2005
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I am not assuming anything.

I am predicting a few things based on current list assessments.

Heppell has had a more accomplished career than Conca atm. It is difficult to argue Heppell was not rated higher at draft time.

Some are getting paid good money to make professional decisions on behalf of players and fans who have invested a lot of time over the years.

If the required level of professionalism is not being met to stakeholders clearly it is their entitlement as for any investors to take action.

Stakeholders are looking for precision not window dressing and if what is required is an art any science proposals will likely fall on deaf ears!

You know who was rated higher at draft time in 2004 then Roughead and Griffen as a general consensus Richard Tambling.

In 2005 Xavier Ellis was rated higher then Scott Pendlebury

in 2006 Bryce Gibbs (and a few others) were rated higher then Joel Selwood and Gumbleton, Thorpe and Hansen were rated better KPP prospects then Riewoldt

in 2007 Cale Morton, Reece Palmer and Chris Masten all rated as superior prospects to Patrick Dangerfield.

in 2008 Jack Watts was the considered the top prospect in the field.

in 2009 Scully was considered better then Martin and Cunnington. Butcher was the best KPF prospect way ahead of Jake Carlisle

ect. ect. ect.

Yes some people are getting paid well to make decisions but these are not decisions based in 100% certainties more like about 30%. If drafting were an exact science then the best players would always go at number 1 and the worst wouldn't even have been drafted (in fact their would be lucky to be 30 players taken every year). And then i wouldn't have to read every other post about why we didn't pick up such and such a player who was taken 12 spots after our pick and turned into a star.

Only have to look at America to see how many draft busts still occur in the first rounds to see that no matter how much time, money and research is done nothing can be taken for granted in an assessment of Human talent and determination. All you *ers should go watch Gattaca again.
 
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You know who was rated higher at draft time in 2004 then Roughead and Griffen as a general consensus Richard Tambling.

In 2005 Xavier Ellis was rated higher then Scott Pendlebury

in 2006 Bryce Gibbs (and a few others) were rated higher then Joel Selwood and Gumbleton, Thorpe and Hansen were rated better KPP prospects then Riewoldt

in 2007 Cale Morton, Reece Palmer and Chris Masten all rated as superior prospects to Patrick Dangerfield.

in 2008 Jack Watts was the considered the top prospect in the field.

in 2009 Scully was considered better then Martin and Cunnington. Butcher was the best KPF prospect way ahead of Jake Carlisle

ect. ect. ect.

Yes some people are getting paid well to make decisions but these are not decisions based in 100% certainties more like about 30%. If drafting were an exact science then the best players would always go at number 1 and the worst wouldn't even have been drafted (in fact their would be lucky to be 30 players taken every year). And then i wouldn't have to read every other post about why we didn't pick up such and such a player who was taken 12 spots after our pick and turned into a star.

Only have to look at America to see how many draft busts still occur in the first rounds to see that no matter how much time, money and research is done nothing can be taken for granted in an assessment of Human talent and determination. All you gooses should go watch Gattaca again.

Selwood was not rated as low by some, Franklin was not rated as low by some, Tambling and Scully where not rated as high by some.

If it is so inexact how do these gurus command high salaries?
 

Elgreedo

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You know who was rated higher at draft time in 2004 then Roughead and Griffen as a general consensus Richard Tambling.

In 2005 Xavier Ellis was rated higher then Scott Pendlebury

in 2006 Bryce Gibbs (and a few others) were rated higher then Joel Selwood and Gumbleton, Thorpe and Hansen were rated better KPP prospects then Riewoldt

in 2007 Cale Morton, Reece Palmer and Chris Masten all rated as superior prospects to Patrick Dangerfield.

in 2008 Jack Watts was the considered the top prospect in the field.

in 2009 Scully was considered better then Martin and Cunnington. Butcher was the best KPF prospect way ahead of Jake Carlisle

ect. ect. ect.

Yes some people are getting paid well to make decisions but these are not decisions based in 100% certainties more like about 30%. If drafting were an exact science then the best players would always go at number 1 and the worst wouldn't even have been drafted (in fact their would be lucky to be 30 players taken every year). And then i wouldn't have to read every other post about why we didn't pick up such and such a player who was taken 12 spots after our pick and turned into a star.

Only have to look at America to see how many draft busts still occur in the first rounds to see that no matter how much time, money and research is done nothing can be taken for granted in an assessment of Human talent and determination. All you gooses should go watch Gattaca again.

Gattaca! Love it. That movie and Anthony Miles inspired an article of mine:

http://www.oneweekatatime.com.au/man-crush-the-gattaca-kid/

In regards to this recruitment issue, it seems to me that things get spicy amongst us fans when someone is taken ahead of someone else in a "reach" type situation (Conca from nowhere over Heppell being the obvious example).

We in the comfort of our homes reading draft bios and watching clips keep seeing the same names in the approximately same order for much of the year, and get comfortable with that order. When it seems that our club will put it's stones on the line to pick someone outside of that order is when things become uncomfortable.

We have no power in a situation that we desperately want to go right, and thus, when a perceived reach occurs, we fear the "evidence" (the bios, lists and video clips) is pointing towards catastrophic failure.

I feel all of these emotions, I want our next recruit to be the most talented and dazzling one available at that pick. I want his career to be successful, more so than those that follow him. I fear that we will try to be too clever, or miscalculate our needs, or just bugger the whole thing up. These things things appear to be common amongst us yellow and black clad.

I wonder how many others out there are less concerned about a draft pick being ultimately unsuccessful if that player was generally deemed, at the time, to be the appropriate choice at that particular number.

We're a funny lot us sports fans; sometimes I think we are driven by the need to not seem foolish, particularly by our foes. I'm not going to categorically back our recruiters to get it right, that would be foolish indeed, but I have to accept that they're the people entrusted with the job, and hope that they do get it right.

And if whoever we end up picking happens to be none of the wonderful things I wish of and for them, then hopefully we can pick some more guns like Anthony Miles elsewhere in the various drafts.

Go Tiges.
 
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Selwood was not rated as low by some, Franklin was not rated as low by some, Tambling and Scully where not rated as high by some.

And the same could be said about Heppell. Some didn't rate him as high others did.

Seriously you're trying to use my own point against me?? You actually remind me of this video from about 4:20 mark



If it is so inexact how do these gurus command high salaries?

I'm sure if you think about it you'll figure it out. But i'll give you a small clue clubs are willing to spend millions of dollars for the smallest of advantages.
 

T4P

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I am not assuming anything.

I am predicting a few things based on current list assessments.

Heppell has had a more accomplished career than Conca atm. It is difficult to argue Heppell was not rated higher at draft time.

Some are getting paid good money to make professional decisions on behalf of players and fans who have invested a lot of time over the years.

If the required level of professionalism is not being met to stakeholders clearly it is their entitlement as for any investors to take action.

Stakeholders are looking for precision not window dressing and if what is required is an art any science proposals will likely fall on deaf ears!

Likewise those rating Tambling ahead of Franklin and Rough head clearly should not be in highly responsible positions atm and possibly even Griffen.
I hate to break it to you, but you don't represent all stakeholders, as the vast majority of stakeholders believe the required level of professionalism is being met.

Also...a prediction 'based on [your] current list assessment' is an assumption. Any general statement, like every one you've made so far, requires assumptions to be made (I.e stereotypes).

You should try grounding yourself in unbiased fact every now and then, rather than the 'magic' (read: delusion), it might rebut the assumption I make whenever I see one of your posts.
 
Oct 15, 2009
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And the same could be said about Heppell. Some didn't rate him as high others did.

Seriously you're trying to use my own point against me?? You actually remind me of this video from about 4:20 mark





I'm sure if you think about it you'll figure it out. But i'll give you a small clue clubs are willing to spend millions of dollars for the smallest of advantages.

I reckon recruiters would love it if they were being paid millions too :eek:
 
Mar 1, 2010
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I hate to break it to you, but you don't represent all stakeholders, as the vast majority of stakeholders believe the required level of professionalism is being met.

Also...a prediction 'based on [your] current list assessment' is an assumption. Any general statement, like every one you've made so far, requires assumptions to be made (I.e stereotypes).

You should try grounding yourself in unbiased fact every now and then, rather than the 'magic' (read: delusion), it might rebut the assumption I make whenever I see one of your posts.


I hate to break it to you but who said you represent the supporter majority?

What are the results of the latest surveys?

I am not just talking about draft picks, I am talking about trades and other list decisions relating to values, strategies and more.

If you think a club needs wealthy backers to push out perceived incompetence like at Carlton it is frankly narrow minded!

Are u saying RFC can't win a premiership because we do not have wealthy backers prepared to yield their influence to ensure executives are held accountable for their responsibilities?

How do you know I am not grounded?

BTW in the real world how many bad decisions does it take before an upgrade is made?

Why is JON not playing. He was a top pick. What went wrong? Are we making the same mistakes? What was the result of the last performance audit on the footy dept? Have the issues of the previous review been met?


What KPI's have been met by the footy dept and which ones have not?

Fact is RFC have not earn't a blank cheque from me yet! Off field in general is okay but the footy dept is a worry IMO! So that's the issue I have with the prospectus!

How small is RFC's revenue base due to poor performance over the years? How much money has bad decision cost RFC and its members?


Fact, all stakeholders have not won a premiership for 30+ years.

Why will RFC not win a premiership for another 30 years? Premierships are not gifted out are they?
 
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TigerTime88

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I think Cal Twomey mostly talks out of his *** or gets his draft movements from big footy. Recruiters would have known after tac cup finals who they were taking and all this talk of players moving is rubbish imo.
 
Jan 13, 2005
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I think Cal Twomey mostly talks out of his *** or gets his draft movements from big footy. Recruiters would have known after tac cup finals who they were taking and all this talk of players moving is rubbish imo.

These two months are when they get a chance to review everything from the last 3 years without having to go to a lot of matches every week and be across 4 different age groups.

So naturally decisions change as you see something in a replay that you like or don't like and when one teams choices change every team around it changes. I reckon its probably only monday or tuesday this week when recruiters decisions are finalised, it's why Emma Quayle does her phantom on the morning of the draft.
 
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I think Cal Twomey mostly talks out of his *** or gets his draft movements from big footy. Recruiters would have known after tac cup finals who they were taking and all this talk of players moving is rubbish imo.
I think each individual recruiter would know who they want. Then they have to sit down and agree on an order.

His info comes from the players. They must have some idea who is keen on them.
 

SumTingWong

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Here's Emma Quayle's draft guide for us:

"The Tigers looked here, there and everywhere for midfielders during the trade period, eventually adding Taylor Hunt on as a free agent. The potential availability of Peter Wright seems the only thing that could sway them for going that way with pick 12; the Tigers have not used their first pick on a tall since choosing Ty Vickery at No.8 in 2008, but while Liam McBean has shown promise in the VFL they don't really have a genuine next option on the go when it comes to untried, developing players, and Wright would appeal for that reason as well as his ability to jump into the ruck in time. They could also do with getting another tall developing back in. That said, there will be a number of top-notch onballers available at their pick, and someone like Tom Lamb could get through to round two. Any of Liam Duggan, Paul Ahern, Corey Ellis and Lachie Weller would be good picks for different reasons, given Duggan's smarts, Ahern's creativity and run, Ellis' cool head and kick, and Weller's class. Nakia Cockatoo would give them a burst of pace they could do with but may be too big a call at 12 given his injury history, lack of exposed form and the other players likely to be available at that pick. Should the Tigers opt for Wright, they should still find themselves with a selection of good options at 33. Lamb would be a value pick at this point, Nathan Drummond is tough and Toby Green plays with some inventiveness across half-forward."

Toby Green? I assume she means Toby Mclean.
 
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I honestly have to say I don't care who we take.
There is plenty to pick from and I'm just looking forward to following the progress of whoever we take.
In about 3-4 years I may care!!
Hopefully I'll care in a positive way.
 

Tigerbob

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There's a type of hilarious about people not watching juniors but defaulting to backing the club no matter what. Not like professionals never make mistakes, hey.

It's just as hilarious as people watching highlight videos and being so strong on one player and bagging the club if they don't take him.

It's a funny theme being played out on the forum.

A simple "My opinion" would change a lot of the angst on here between blind club backers and club baggers.

That's my opinion.
 
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