2014 Draft - Overrated and Underrated

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Oct 30, 2007
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This thread has been a fixture of the D&T board over the last few years, so it's only right that it makes it's return in 2014. And as always, I'll get us started...

Overrated - Oscar McDonald
Underrated - Christian Buykx-Smith


Seems to me that McDonald is almost the consensus next best tall defender, after the likes of Durdin, Goddard and Marchbank. Yet, Buykx-Smith has barely had a single word spoken about him. And I'm not quite sure why that is.

Don't get me wrong, I can see why McDonald attracts - he has the near perfect size you're looking for in a KPD, has a brother playing AFL and just had a really solid year all round. For a tall, he has really good endurance and is strong overhead. It was also good to see him improve as the year went on, highlighted by the fact that he was upgraded to the Combine after not having received an initial invite. But, he isn't an elite prospect by any means. I think people look at his stats (averaging around 14 touches and 6 marks) and see him as being that mix of rebound and defense. I just don't see that happening to the same degree at AFL level. I also worry that he'll get burnt by faster forwards, because his speed is only average.

As for Buykx-Smith, he is slightly shorter at 193cm but the main drawback is that he missed most of this season (and last season) with injury. Stress fractures of the back and a broken arm certainly hampered him, but he did return and looked pretty good in doing so in the TAC Cup. And while he only averaged around 7 touches a game, who cares? He is a genuine full back, one who loves it and one who is good at it. And despite playing so little football, he received a Draft Combine invite which I think shows how highly he was regarded coming into the season. What I like most, is his aggression as a defender as well as his discipline - for someone who does whatever it takes to beat his opponent, he also knows where the line is. His endurance is only a touch below McDonald, but has him covered for speed.

As a pure shut down defender, I'd give Christian Buykx-Smith the edge. And in terms of projecting their futures, I think both players are looking more at that deeper defender role getting around 10 touches a game. So I know who I'd pick first.


Overrated - Nakia Cockatoo
Underrated - Brenden Abbott, Tom Faul


So this one might be drawing a longer bow than the first one. While McDonald and Buykx-Smith have a similar range, it's not even close with three. There's no guarantees that Abbott and Faul even get drafted. But oh well, it seemed like they fit together. And this is why...

Cockatoo - 185cm, 86kg
Abbott - 186cm, 92kg
Faul - 187cm, 86kg

All three are roughly the same size, play similar positions and you could use one word to describe all three - powerful.

In terms of Cockatoo though, his perceived draft value on BigFooty probably isn't too far off. I have him around 20-40, so while I don't agree with people selecting him in the 10-20 range it's not really that far fetched. I do think he is overrated though, in terms of his future prospects. The fact that I've seen Patrick Dangerfield comparisons is worrying. I don't think he has anywhere near the same contested game, and it's not something I ever see him developing. For me, Cockatoo is an outside utility. He could play off the flanks at either end, or have him run off a wing. Just don't mistake 'powerful' as being strong in the contests. For me, he is more along the lines of a Heretier Lumumba. Not that that's a bad thing.

Abbott meanwhile is a year old and has senior experience in the WAFL, he has looked comfortable off half back and as a forward. But everyone has always said that he'll develop into a midfielder when he finally gets his body and fitness up to scratch. And everything about Abbott is powerful. The way he attacks the ball, his left foot kick and his speed. I'd happily invest a late second round pick in him, but could just as easily be had later I'd imagine.

As for Faul, he comes from Canberra and is still only relatively new to football. His volleyball background has certainly helped with his leap, but he really does look a natural the way he plays. Has an excellent left foot kick, and his hands are seriously clean both in the air and on the ground. He is a rookie prospect, but I think a very good one as he ticks a whole lot of boxes. Again, like the others he could be developed anywhere on the ground really. I could see him playing a little like Dane Rampe from the Swans though.
 
Good post Chris but I can't see many people actively cheering for an Abbott ;)
Plenty though will be all over utensil.
 

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This thread has been a fixture of the D&T board over the last few years, so it's only right that it makes it's return in 2014. And as always, I'll get us started...

Overrated - Oscar McDonald
Underrated - Christian Buykx-Smith


Seems to me that McDonald is almost the consensus next best tall defender, after the likes of Durdin, Goddard and Marchbank. Yet, Buykx-Smith has barely had a single word spoken about him. And I'm not quite sure why that is.

Don't get me wrong, I can see why McDonald attracts - he has the near perfect size you're looking for in a KPD, has a brother playing AFL and just had a really solid year all round. For a tall, he has really good endurance and is strong overhead. It was also good to see him improve as the year went on, highlighted by the fact that he was upgraded to the Combine after not having received an initial invite. But, he isn't an elite prospect by any means. I think people look at his stats (averaging around 14 touches and 6 marks) and see him as being that mix of rebound and defense. I just don't see that happening to the same degree at AFL level. I also worry that he'll get burnt by faster forwards, because his speed is only average.

As for Buykx-Smith, he is slightly shorter at 193cm but the main drawback is that he missed most of this season (and last season) with injury. Stress fractures of the back and a broken arm certainly hampered him, but he did return and looked pretty good in doing so in the TAC Cup. And while he only averaged around 7 touches a game, who cares? He is a genuine full back, one who loves it and one who is good at it. And despite playing so little football, he received a Draft Combine invite which I think shows how highly he was regarded coming into the season. What I like most, is his aggression as a defender as well as his discipline - for someone who does whatever it takes to beat his opponent, he also knows where the line is. His endurance is only a touch below McDonald, but has him covered for speed.

As a pure shut down defender, I'd give Christian Buykx-Smith the edge. And in terms of projecting their futures, I think both players are looking more at that deeper defender role getting around 10 touches a game. So I know who I'd pick first.


Overrated - Nakia Cockatoo
Underrated - Brenden Abbott, Tom Faul


So this one might be drawing a longer bow than the first one. While McDonald and Buykx-Smith have a similar range, it's not even close with three. There's no guarantees that Abbott and Faul even get drafted. But oh well, it seemed like they fit together. And this is why...

Cockatoo - 185cm, 86kg
Abbott - 186cm, 92kg
Faul - 187cm, 86kg

All three are roughly the same size, play similar positions and you could use one word to describe all three - powerful.

In terms of Cockatoo though, his perceived draft value on BigFooty probably isn't too far off. I have him around 20-40, so while I don't agree with people selecting him in the 10-20 range it's not really that far fetched. I do think he is overrated though, in terms of his future prospects. The fact that I've seen Patrick Dangerfield comparisons is worrying. I don't think he has anywhere near the same contested game, and it's not something I ever see him developing. For me, Cockatoo is an outside utility. He could play off the flanks at either end, or have him run off a wing. Just don't mistake 'powerful' as being strong in the contests. For me, he is more along the lines of a Heretier Lumumba. Not that that's a bad thing.

Abbott meanwhile is a year old and has senior experience in the WAFL, he has looked comfortable off half back and as a forward. But everyone has always said that he'll develop into a midfielder when he finally gets his body and fitness up to scratch. And everything about Abbott is powerful. The way he attacks the ball, his left foot kick and his speed. I'd happily invest a late second round pick in him, but could just as easily be had later I'd imagine.

As for Faul, he comes from Canberra and is still only relatively new to football. His volleyball background has certainly helped with his leap, but he really does look a natural the way he plays. Has an excellent left foot kick, and his hands are seriously clean both in the air and on the ground. He is a rookie prospect, but I think a very good one as he ticks a whole lot of boxes. Again, like the others he could be developed anywhere on the ground really. I could see him playing a little like Dane Rampe from the Swans though.
What are your thoughts on Jake Lever?
 
jake johansen underrated, judging on how well he's played this year he should be taken in the top 15, he reminds me a lot of Lewis Talor and Ben Cavarra
 
Tough to say but off the top of my head and going off what I have seen on bigfooty...

Overrated - Reece McKenzie, Nakia Cockatoo, Connor Menadue, Peter Bampton, Brendon Abbott
Underrated - Brayden Maynard, Ed Langdon, Touk Miller, Clem Smith, Aidan Anderson
 
Overrated: Marchbank Garlett McCartin (not a top 3 for mine)
Underrated: Blakely Cavka gowers
 

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Overrated: McCartin. I just don't see all the hype to be honest. He looks like a decent, plain forward without any extremely outstanding attributes.

Underrated: Kyle Langford. The kids a bottom aged player in this pool and he's right up there with guys almost a full year older than him. Very good mark, kick and reader of the play. Good height and a build that will fill out in the AFL system. Will be a very good player and if Laverde is gone at 4, wouldn't mind seeing him in the Black&White at pick #5.
 
Underrated: Jordan De Goey, legitimate case that he's a top 4 talent in the open pool, he's shown great potential in midfield, strong mark, very good kick and reads the play well. Can also play down back.

Doesn't look that way. Consistently kicks long, irrespective of how nicely the ball comes of the ball you need to spot targets and hit them.
 
Underrated: Kyle Langford. The kids a bottom aged player in this pool and he's right up there with guys almost a full year older than him. Very good mark, kick and reader of the play. Good height and a build that will fill out in the AFL system. Will be a very good player and if Laverde is gone at 4, wouldn't mind seeing him in the Black&White at pick #5.

Let me jump on that bandwagon with you!
 
Doesn't look that way. Consistently kicks long, irrespective of how nicely the ball comes of the ball you need to spot targets and hit them.
Sounds like Docherty - wraps were high on his kicking coming out of u18s, but turned out that it was really based off the fact he could kick long, rather than accuracy.
 
Overrated: McCartin. I just don't see all the hype to be honest. He looks like a decent, plain forward without any extremely outstanding attributes.

Underrated: Footy smarts, strong hands and aggression in key forwards. Not only the ability to crash packs, but the desire to do it.

These traits are very underrated by the average footy fan. And a major reason key forwards either become A-grade, or plodders.
 
Underrated: Footy smarts, strong hands and aggression in key forwards. Not only the ability to crash packs, but the desire to do it.

These traits are very underrated by the average footy fan. And a major reason key forwards either become A-grade, or plodders.

Are you saying McCartin has those traits? I honestly couldn't give an appropriately considered answer as to whether I think he does as I just haven't seen enough of him. From what I have seen though, he doesn't have that "wow" factor you see in the best KPP prospects.
Being a Collingwood supporter I have a natural bias but I honestly don't see him as a better prospect than Moore. They are of course, quite different in style but Moore has some really exciting moments in his play where you just say to yourself "he shouldn't have been able to do that" whereas McCartin doesn't really.
I've heard people make Fevola comparisons when speaking about McCartin but I think McKenzie looks a more fearsome prospect. I don't know... He just doesn't look like a potential pick #1 to me.
 
Are you saying McCartin has those traits? I honestly couldn't give an appropriately considered answer as to whether I think he does as I just haven't seen enough of him. From what I have seen though, he doesn't have that "wow" factor you see in the best KPP prospects.
Being a Collingwood supporter I have a natural bias but I honestly don't see him as a better prospect than Moore. They are of course, quite different in style but Moore has some really exciting moments in his play where you just say to yourself "he shouldn't have been able to do that" whereas McCartin doesn't really.
I've heard people make Fevola comparisons when speaking about McCartin but I think McKenzie looks a more fearsome prospect. I don't know... He just doesn't look like a potential pick #1 to me.

Yes, I am saying he has those traits. Exactly those traits.

And at 194 cm, you know, taller than the 193 cm Jarryd Roughead, I fail to see how he's undersized, especially when he's an aggressive, pack marking tall.

Moore and McCartin are so different it's not a comparison worth discussing.
 
Yes, I am saying he has those traits. Exactly those traits.

And at 194 cm, you know, taller than the 193 cm Jarryd Roughead, I fail to see how he's undersized, especially when he's an aggressive, pack marking tall.

Moore and McCartin are so different it's not a comparison worth discussing.

I totally agree he isn't undersized. I don't subscribe to the theory that to be a KPP these days you need to be nigh on 200cm either. It's a ridiculous argument that completely overlooks skillset. I'd prefer a 193/194 Fevola or Roughead over a 200cm player without footy smarts.
Having said that though, I still can't see that McCartin has those traits. Then again, as I said, I haven't seen too much of him. What do you think of McKenzie btw? under/overrated?
 
I totally agree he isn't undersized. I don't subscribe to the theory that to be a KPP these days you need to be nigh on 200cm either. It's a ridiculous argument that completely overlooks skillset. I'd prefer a 193/194 Fevola or Roughead over a 200cm player without footy smarts.
Having said that though, I still can't see that McCartin has those traits. Then again, as I said, I haven't seen too much of him. What do you think of McKenzie btw? under/overrated?

Needs developing and kicking is an issue, but also a very exciting athletic prospect.
 

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