2014 Emirates Melbourne Cup Day discussion.

[rideclutch]

AR's won $5M. He's earned his handicap.

If history is against him, then that's the way it should be. There was plenty to say Makybe Diva couldn't win a third Cup. AR's a 3/1 fav, so nobody thinks the handicapper's murdered him. Weights have been raised for the Melbourne Cup which points to it being a weak edition, also.

Sorry mate I can't have any of this (especially about the Diva), but concur it's looking a weak edition on paper.

Not sure creating default topweights and then penalising them is the correct way to combat that.

 

[HeathySure]

Please, look at the horses who've carried more than 58 in the cup. You think they're gifting it to him? This horse isn't Fenomeno or Orfevre, he hadn't won for nearly 2 years prior to Saturday... There will be more depth and chances over the 2 miles than there was at Caulfield.

History says can't win, happy to be wrong.

History is totally irrelevant in this case. Weights got raised and the minimum is now way higher than it was when Think Big and Rain Lover won. He could have 60kgs and i would be happy to be on. I probably would put more on because of the price and the knockers.

 

[rideclutch]

You don't need to go back to Rain Lover to see 58.5 is no walk in the park.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Sorry mate I can't have any of this (especially about the Diva), but concur it's looking a weak edition which on paper.

Not sure creating default topweights and then penalising them is the correct way to combat that.

It's all relative. The 9yo Cavalryman is up 3kg after finishing down the track in 2012. If you're the best horse entered, you're the best horse entered. Win a feature handicap after declaration of weights and receive a penalty. This isn't an ambush.

 

[rideclutch]

It's all relative. The 9yo Cavalryman is up 3kg after finishing down the track in 2012. If you're the best horse entered, you're the best horse entered. Win a feature handicap after declaration of weights and receive a penalty. This isn't an ambush.

No problem with that whatsoever if he was handicapped correctly (IMO of course) in the first place.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Overall it does look like a weak field this year.
I think looking over the field if Red Cadeaux brings his A game then he will win, has proven before he can perform over the 3200m @ Flemington, and won't be running into anything as classy as Dunaden or Fiorente this time around

 

[Ron The Bear]

No problem with that whatsoever if he was handicapped correctly (IMO of course) in the first place.

Who would you have weighted above him? The minimum topweight rule was introduced to enable jockeys on the lower-weighted horses to ride at the allotted weight.

True that some horses don't handle the bigger weights well. Racing (and punting) is full of such twists.

 

[iluvparis]

Please, look at the horses who've carried more than 58 in the cup. You think they're gifting it to him? This horse isn't Fenomeno or Orfevre, he hadn't won for nearly 2 years prior to Saturday... There will be more depth and chances over the 2 miles than there was at Caulfield.

History says can't win, happy to be wrong.

My point was about the relative effect of the extra kg - not the absolute level of the weight he is carrying.

Let's face it - on the day - his finishing position is about 95% going to be determined by how he actually performs on the day and about 5% by that extra kilogram.

 

[iluvparis]

Overall it does look like a weak field this year.
I think looking over the field if Red Cadeaux brings his A game then he will win, has proven before he can perform over the 3200m @ Flemington, and won't be running into anything as classy as Dunaden or Fiorente this time around

Last run was absolutely atrocious , as have 3 of his last 4 starts- you are basically just guessing that he produces his best form on the day if you back him.

 

[rideclutch]

Last run was absolutely atrocious , as have 3 of his last 4 starts- you are basically just guessing that he produces his best form on the day if you back him.

Aussie horse ilp, he will lift . Johnny Murtagh said there was a noticeable difference in the horse out here.

Who would you have weighted above him? The minimum topweight rule was introduced to enable jockeys on the lower-weighted horses to ride at the allotted weight.

True that some horses don't handle the bigger weights well. Racing (and punting) is full of such twists.

From racing.com > Carpenter also pointed out that this year’s Melbourne Cup weights were unique and that this formed part of the process in determining Admire Rakti’s penalty.

“Under the Australian Rules of Racing the Melbourne Cup top-weighted horse is required to have at least 58kg,” Carpenter said.


“Admire Rakti was considered the best-performed horse amongst the entries and was allocated 58kg, but in any other year over the past decade he would likely have been allocated less weight.


“With the need to declare a 58kg topweight, the weights of most horses, including Admire Rakti, were 2kg higher than they would have been in any other year.”

That's my only problem mate. Understand a weak year on paper requires a topweight, not sure it warranted a penalty when already carrying 58, when you consider how many have won carrying more.

Wouldn't normally argue this Ron, because in general I'm more than happy to back horses carrying weight, especially round the provincials and country, as I reckon in general they don't carry enough relative to their class to be stopped, especially when dropping back in the ratings. Melbourne Cup is a different story, obviously.

 

[terminators]

“Admire Rakti was considered the best-performed horse amongst the entries and was allocated 58kg, but in any other year over the past decade he would likely have been allocated less weight.

“With the need to declare a 58kg topweight, the weights of most horses, including Admire Rakti, were 2kg higher than they would have been in any other year.”

That's my only problem mate. Understand a weak year on paper requires a topweight, not sure it warranted a penalty when already carrying 58, when you consider how many have won carrying more.

Wouldn't normally argue this Ron, because in general I'm more than happy to back horses carrying weight, especially round the provincials and country, as I reckon in general they don't carry enough relative to their class to be stopped, especially when dropping back in the ratings. Melbourne Cup is a different story, obviously.

Disregard the actual weight of 58, it's all relative to what the others are carrying.

Put it this way, if every horse declared was carrying 2kgs less and AR had 56 would you be happy with him getting a penalty?

 

[iluvparis]

Aussie horse ilp, he will lift . Johnny Murtagh said there was a noticeable difference in the horse out here.

That might be the case but as I said - total guess work and that's not how I bet.

 

[rideclutch]

That might be the case but as I said - total guess work and that's not how I bet.

Has he ever come here in good form? Just wondering considering the prices he's gone around.

 

[rideclutch]

Put it this way, if every horse declared was carrying 2kgs less and AR had 56 would you be happy with him getting a penalty?

Yes, because relative weights are irrelevant to me - at some point you hit the barrier where horses haven't been able to win at, around the 58kg mark. My opinion is that he has not earned that weight.

 

[iluvparis]

Yes, because relative weights are irrelevant to me - at some point you hit the barrier where horses haven't been able to win at, around the 58kg mark. My opinion is that he has not earned that weight.

But did they not win it because they got rolled by horses running with weights that are no longer allowed? Or because they were beaten by horses that in the modern day would not recieve so much weight because of the compressed spreads? All relevant questions.

 

[iluvparis]

Has he ever come here in good form? Just wondering considering the prices he's gone around.

Yeah - in Green Moon's year he had excellent form - and started second favourite as a result from memory. Settled back in a skunk race and was the best of the run on horses. Would have gone close in a fair race.

 

[rideclutch]

Yeah - in Green Moon's year he had excellent form - and started second favourite as a result from memory. Settled back in a skunk race and was the best of the run on horses. Would have gone close in a fair race.

Fair enough. Mt Athos/Ryan Moore board.

But did they not win it because they got rolled by horses running with weights that are no longer allowed? Or because they were beaten by horses that in the modern day would not recieve so much weight because of the compressed spreads? All relevant questions.

Fiorente 55
Green Moon 53.5
Dunaden 54.5
Americain 54.5
Shocking 51
Viewed 53
Efficient 54.5
Delta Blues 56

Sorry to be a jackass but they didn't win it because they had a lot of weight and in some cases the race was farcially run and gave them no chance. Have no problem with AR carrying 58, "it's supposed to be hard" as I'm repeatedly told. Have issue with his original CC weight and subsequent penalty after what we all deemed a seriously weak CC.

 

[iluvparis]

The Diva carried 58, equivalent to 59.5 once the mare's allowance is taken into accounts.

Fair enough if you thought pre-CC that the weight he had at Caulfield allowed him to win there, but would stop him winning at Flemington, but don't think you can change your mind post race.

 

[Ron The Bear]

From racing.com > Carpenter also pointed out that this year’s Melbourne Cup weights were unique and that this formed part of the process in determining Admire Rakti’s penalty.

“Under the Australian Rules of Racing the Melbourne Cup top-weighted horse is required to have at least 58kg,” Carpenter said.


“Admire Rakti was considered the best-performed horse amongst the entries and was allocated 58kg, but in any other year over the past decade he would likely have been allocated less weight.


“With the need to declare a 58kg topweight, the weights of most horses, including Admire Rakti, were 2kg higher than they would have been in any other year.”

That's my only problem mate. Understand a weak year on paper requires a topweight, not sure it warranted a penalty when already carrying 58, when you consider how many have won carrying more.

Wouldn't normally argue this Ron, because in general I'm more than happy to back horses carrying weight, especially round the provincials and country, as I reckon in general they don't carry enough relative to their class to be stopped, especially when dropping back in the ratings. Melbourne Cup is a different story, obviously.

I see where you're coming from. Sort of. I thought the limit had been raised from 50 to 52.

Still, the only horses AR fares worse against are those who would've received less than 50kg initially if there was no minimum, i.e. those in the 50-51.5kg range now. Of the dozen or so left, Signoff at ~25/1 is the only one given a chance. I'll accept that there's an argument to be made that 56 -> 58kg is more of an imposition than 50 -> 52kg. So he already had the 58, then won a G1 hcp with a leg in the air under the same weight. Wasn't the smartest move.

As it is, half a kg is the lowest penalty handed to a Caulfield Cup winner in more than 30 years. I take your point but still think he's been favourably treated. He'll receive a better smother at Flemington. Reproduce that run and he wins again.

 

[rideclutch]

I see where you're coming from. Sort of.

Good enough for me

Points taken Ron. In regards to 3 wide, leg in the air; he was fresh, sprinted well, it was a low rating CC. I think his MC dangers haven't run yet.

This is also horse that mixes his form, I wouldn't be taking it for granted that he will reproduce. In recent years we have seen horses get back in the run with big weights and be unfavoured by the tempo. Backed him in the CC but would not say he's over the line at all here.

 

[iluvparis]

Also concnede that 56>58 is tougher than 50>52

Offsetting is that outside of LV, unless Fawkner stays 3200m nothing else in the race looks like a Melbourne Cup winner to me.

 

[rideclutch]

The Diva carried 58, equivalent to 59.5 once the mare's allowance is taken into accounts.

Fair enough if you thought pre-CC that the weight he had at Caulfield allowed him to win there, but would stop him winning at Flemington, but don't think you can change your mind post race.

* the mares allowance, you know she was handed that cup in a brown paper bag NSW cricketer style...

 

[Ron The Bear]

Points taken Ron. In regards to 3 wide, leg in the air; he was fresh, sprinted well, it was a low rating CC. I think his MC dangers haven't run yet.

On the flip side, none of the 70-odd raiders since Vintage Crop who've gone into the Cup without an Australian lead-up, have succeeded. So he's got the jump on them!

Connections claim he's at his best second-up and expect him to improve. Will he or won't he? Comes down to the vagaries of northern hemisphere-style preparations...

 

[iluvparis]

**** the mares allowance, you know she was handed that cup in a brown paper bag NSW cricketer style...

Track was good come race time mate. But feel free to reasses next time a horses does a 3-peat if it was such a piece of piss

 

[HeathySure]

On the flip side, none of the 70-odd raiders since Vintage Crop who've gone into the Cup without an Australian lead-up, have succeeded. So he's got the jump on them!

Connections claim he's at his best second-up and expect him to improve. Will he or won't he? Comes down to the vagaries of northern hemisphere-style preparations...

Connections claim he is best 2nd up but his last 2 second up runs were shocking. I hope they are right