2014 Emirates Melbourne Cup Day discussion.

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Viva la Mattner

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Can't see how Mutual Regard would be good enough myself. He would be the weakest European horse to run a place for a long time. Can't remember the last time Ebor form was relevant. Probably Purple Moon - but it had run in Australia and went on to run well in Gold Cup (which I doubt Mutual Regard would have the class to do).

He is big unders for mine.
Traditionally yes Ebor form has been poor, I don't know why but Mutual Regard from the little vision I've seen seems to be able to sit and sprint and this is what Murtagh mentioned in an interview. But yes all in all not as classy as some from years gone by
 
Hes clearly improved since changing stables but in most years he'd be $50
The fact LVP got close to Protectionist at Caulfield confuses the issue a tad considering it is $6.
Has 3200m form & will handle a fast track but without a run here, how can we know?

seth

Exactly - that to me would be a negative.

Just had a look back - and the only horses to have placed in the last decade with weaker European ratings are Bauer and Purple Moon - both incidently trained by Cumani and both incidently having a lead up run in Oz.

On all available evidnce to me, even in a weak year, he is not good enough - maybe he can place but I would think a win would be a big surprise.

As said above - $15 looks an atrocious price to me.
 
Disregard the actual weight of 58, it's all relative to what the others are carrying.

Put it this way, if every horse declared was carrying 2kgs less and AR had 56 would you be happy with him getting a penalty?

Ride Clutch is spot on with his post.

The fact is that weights were artificially raised 2kg to have a topweight of 58kg. The facts are that a weight increase on top of 58 is harder to carry,than if you had 50kg.
 

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Mobythepom

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This year's Ebor was quite a strong renewal. The last 9 winners were all winning off a mark of 101 or lower and Mutual Regard was well on top at the line off a mark of 106, so would appear to be the classiest winner of recent years. What I like about him is that he is from a family that improve with age and as a 5yo (UK age) he is still to reach his peak. He has the pace to break fast and can travel sweetly on the bridle before quickening and staying on. He is proven in a competitive 19 runner top handicap so can handle himself ok.
He is also 1kg better off in the Cup than he would be with regards to both Cavalryman and Willing Foe if the race was run in the UK.

With a good jock booked, I think you may be underestimating this one.

Trying to work out the last one in (currently likely to be around Shoreham in my reckoning), but I can find nothing about Mister O'Ceirin or Black Tycoon. Anyone know if these two are likely to show up? I have Silent Achiever, Sea Moon, Zanbagh, Slow Pace and Unchain My Heart as likely nons, then Dandino, Kirramosa, Bande, Sertorious and Sangster as definite nons and Caravan Rolls On as a likely 1kg penalty.

Anyone shed any further light?
 

sethlad

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Heard nothing that makes me think any of the nons in you list wont be going to the race.
Surely wouldnt have paid the nomination.

Zanbagh is going awfully but all her autumn form is around Lucia.
Sea Moon was reported to be injured out of CC but how would you know with Lloyd.
Slow Pace is a certanty to run if it gets there according to Luke, no idea why?

seth
 

Mobythepom

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Heard nothing that makes me think any of the nons in you list wont be going to the race.
Surely wouldnt have paid the nomination.

Zanbagh is going awfully but all her autumn form is around Lucia.
Sea Moon was reported to be injured out of CC but how would you know with Lloyd.
Slow Pace is a certanty to run if it gets there according to Luke, no idea why?

seth
Mentions of a respiratory problem for Zanbagh and a vet check imminent, Sea Moon pulled up sore but heard nothing since.

Here's something I found on Slow Pace from the trainer's website.....
Lees says the chances of Slow Pace joining Lucia Valentina in the Melbourne Cup line-up are slim at this stage.
"We'll know more after he races at Moonee Valley," he said. "If he won or performed well, we could consider backing him up at Flemington on Saturday week in the Lexus Stakes (2500m)."
"But it's more likely he will go to the Queen Elizabeth Stakes on the final day at Flemington and then the Sandown Cup a week later."

Think The Cup is only an afterthought for Silent Achiever but not ruled out definitively yet. Unchain My Heart laid for a good few quid at 1,000 so assumed it was a likely non but I stand to be corrected.

I had Araldo as pretty likely to run even if something comes out of the Lexus/MacKinnon, but I'm guessing you would be less certain.
 

Mobythepom

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One more point about Mutual Regard, have you noticed the unusual betting patterns on Betfair? Click on the bar chart icon if not.
Someone has been very keen to back it big at very low prices compared with what was available with the bookies (and indeed what was available for most of the time on Betfair!) at regular intervals over the last few weeks....
 

sethlad

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Luke Murrell tweeted that if Slow Pace runs well Friday they will push on, not sure why its a billion to one.

Have no solid data on Mutual Regard from Werribee other than 2 different reports he's taken the travel as well as any.
Araldo will run if they get in the race, Zanbagh is lame & going to paddock

seth
 
Last edited:
May 6, 2008
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no, i ment when have they finalised the horses that will race on the day. not the results!

Hi user Mike, always a pleasure Pal :$:rainbow:

The Melbourne Cup is a race run over 3200m at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November. This year it will be run on the 4th Nov (which just so happens to be a Tuesday) The final field will be put together after the Lexus on the Saturday (the 1st November which happens to be a Saturday) Therefore in conclusion they will release the final field on the 1st of November after Saturday's races, before the first Tuesday in November. More than happy to answer any more questions you have Pal. :rainbow::thumbsu::$
 

MikeLike

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Hi user Mike, always a pleasure Pal :$:rainbow:

The Melbourne Cup is a race run over 3200m at Flemington on the first Tuesday in November. This year it will be run on the 4th Nov (which just so happens to be a Tuesday) The final field will be put together after the Lexus on the Saturday (the 1st November which happens to be a Saturday) Therefore in conclusion they will release the final field on the 1st of November after Saturday's races, before the first Tuesday in November. More than happy to answer any more questions you have Pal. :rainbow::thumbsu::$

THanks mate :):thumbsu:

Need to get the work sweeps organised - lucky me. Someone said its' a public holiday in melbourne on the 4th glad to see thats not going to impact on the BIG DAY.
 

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May 6, 2008
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sethlad

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Has anyone heard anything about Amralah with Lloyd Williams....sounds like it needs to win Derby day to get in...

As usual, nomd for everything but accepted for none.
Have heard they are happy with how hes settled in, would certainly be in paddock with Almandin if not.
Would need to run very well in Lexus as not past the ballot

seth
 
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