2014 Emirates Melbourne Cup Day discussion.

[iluvparis]

The Barman is a massive chance in this. Ticks all the boxes. AR obviously the big threat.

Except the key box - CLASS

 

[Wildrig]

Protectionist (blue and yellow) tough fella by the looks

 

[iluvparis]

Agree with most - this is the weakest edition I think we've seen for many years. Having seen the final field and barrier draw I can only see 6 possible winning chances (admittedly got plenty wrong today - hopefully that is out of the system)

Clear top two - Admire Ratki, Lucia Valentina
Winning Chances - Willing Foe, Fawkner, Signoff, Protectionist
Flukers hopes - Calvaryman, Lidari, Au Revoir, Araldo

If anything outside these wins my bets will be blown out of the water.

Initial thoughts on opening prices:

Admire Ratki - Fair to slight overs
Cavlaryman - Fair
Fawkner - Fair - maybe slight unders given trip doubts
Red Cadeaux - poison unders
Protectionist - decent unders
Sea Moon - jail time for Lloyd if this wins
Seismos - overs at 100s
Junoob - fair to slight unders
Royal Diamond - overs
Gatewood - overs on unknown factor
Mutual Regard - poison unders
Who Shot The Barnmen - slight unders
Willing Foe - overs
My Ambivalent - impossible to price so I guess fair? surely cant get the trip
Precendence - see above replacing Lloyd with Bart
Brambles - slight overs
Mr O'Ceirin - who cares
Au Revoir - decent overs
Lidari - decnent overs
Opinion - overs
Araldo - fair to slight unders
Lucia Valentina - fair to slight overs
Unchain My Heart - seriously?
Signoff - Decent/Poison unders

Plenty miss-priced at the top of the market for me so there is lots of value around for those looking at something $30+

 

[Wildrig]

Seismos best form (red cap outside barrier)

 

[FallingLiefs]

Agree with most - this is the weakest edition I think we've seen for many years. Having seen the final field and barrier draw I can only see 6 possible winning chances (admittedly got plenty wrong today - hopefully that is out of the system)

Clear top two - Admire Ratki, Lucia Valentina
Winning Chances - Willing Foe, Fawkner, Signoff, Protectionist
Flukers hopes - Calvaryman, Lidari, Au Revoir, Araldo

very well summarised, they're my top 6 too. i had red cadeaux in there too but he's hardly worth it at the odds he's at now. flukers come down to personal opinion really. for the first time i can remember i had to go through and find the ones that could win a melbourne cup, not cross off the ones that couldnt.

early feeling is willing foe is the best way to punt

 

[JuddsABlue]

I'll still be having a saver on RC

Watched the replay of last years and he was super close to winning it. The AR and LV get blocked for a run or something, RC could be one of the ones to steal it

Have AR at the moment, will consider others on the day pending how their price moves. Think RC will come in though.

 

[Ron The Bear]

So that's a total of one Australian bred horse yeah? No wonder people are losing interest.

Despite the well-written article by Patrick Carlyon in the HS, I don't think it's healthy for moderates to come out here and take all that prizemoney out of the local industry. Quality horses lift the profile of the race, but visiting stables have learned that the handicapper has the measure of the better-performed horses. You need to bring an improver. The Cup has become an "Improvers handicap" of sorts.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Despite the well-written article by Patrick Carlyon in the HS, I don't think it's healthy for moderates to come out here and take all that prizemoney out of the local industry. Quality horses lift the profile of the race, but visiting stables have learned that the handicapper has the measure of the better-performed horses. You need to bring an improver. The Cup has become an "Improvers handicap" of sorts.

Yeah I agree, I mean they've taken 5 million just with the Cox Plate and Cc already. You can almost guarantee they'll take another 5 on Tuesday. It is a lot to take away from the locals but this is what the VRC wanted ...just like getting the young ones to the races, that makes it a really ******* enjoyable day with those campaigners everywhere. Again, the actual race fans won't go because they don't want to be accosted by a gaggle of *******s.

Why do they want it filled? So we can pay exorbitant winning prizes to overseas connections!

 

[KardiniaPark]

Hey sethlad iluvparis was My Ambivilent up the top of the CC market before being SCR? Do you give her any chance (ignoring the issues she's had whilst here) ? Query at the trip? Also, why are you so cold on Mutual Regard? He seems a fair EW hope.

 

[iluvparis]

Hey sethlad iluvparis was My Ambivilent up the top of the CC market before being SCR? Do you give her any chance (ignoring the issues she's had whilst here) ? Query at the trip?

Huge HUGE query at the trip. Over 2400m she'd be in my top 5 or 6 but I reckon she has about a 10% chance of seeing the trip out.

Put it this way - I'd be more confident of Fawkner running out the 3200m. However, at her current price you'll get decent compensation for seeing if she does.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Sorry edited post above as you were replying, why are you so cold on Mutual Regard?

 

[iluvparis]

Sorry edited post above as you were replying, why are you so cold on Mutual Regard?

Class - think he is the euro equivalent of Who Shot The Bar Men myself. Sure he has good form but in much lower class of races than the rest of the raiders. Would be the lowest rated euro winner by some margin - and only Luca has trained lower rated horses to even run a place.

At the odds I'd back Royal Diamond to beat MR home all day.

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

So people expect LV to handle the jump to 2 miles?

 

[BEEG]

Lets hope the money comes for signoff and pushes AR out. Was a fool to think our locals are as good as the internationals twice this spring, not making the same mistake a third time. AR will brain them

Pretty much my thoughts

 

[BEEG]

Have money currently on the two internationals they way the carnival has gone if they don't win the cup I will quit punting

With close losses in the CC and CP I can't go another aussie horse

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Opinion easily the best roughie for me,will eat the ground up. A must include in all exotics.

Protectionist, Admire Rakti - the win

Opinion, Araldo, Signoff, Cavalryman, Lucia Valentina, Brambles, Fawkner and Willing Foe to fill places for my first 4's and trifecta's

 

[iluvparis]

So people expect LV to handle the jump to 2 miles?

Will know more at 3:05 on Tuesday

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

Will know more at 3:05 on Tuesday

That's my only worry really. Lovely form so far.

I like the raiders too, but last year with the likes of VDC, Brown Panther, Dandino, Verema ( ) it didn't really end up well, but I think this year AR is too good to pass up, and like Perfectionist with his weight and class. No faith in the first up runners like RC.

Will have Fawkner in multis too.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I like Ambivalent. Happy to take on a European with staying queries over some of the lower weighted, no talent horses based in Australia. Not certain she can win but firm track and quiet ride she could play much better than the odds. She's just got class that only 5 or so of her opponents have.

 

[HeathySure]

I wonder how the track will race. Saturday the fence was right off and most of the winners raced wide or came out wide. There were a lot of forget runs because of this reason. I now think there are 3 chances, AR should be about evens, Signoff worries me because of no weight and might be drawn in the right part of the track and LV basically the only other chance but i think she can only win if something goes wrong with AR. Rough chances to Red Cadeaux (you dont run 2nd twice in this race without ability) WSTB who likes the distance, Araldo if it gets wetter and Fawkner cos he finished 6th last year and is probably slightly better

 

[HurlsMeister18]

So people expect LV to handle the jump to 2 miles?

I think she runs it right out. She normally switches off really good in her races and doesn't ever over race, has barrier 2 so she will have no extra work to do from there and has only 53 kegs to carry.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Dosage indexes from Sportsman

Horse|centre of dist/dosage|profile
\Admire Rakti|0.56/1.67|5-0-10-1-0
\Cavalryman|0.31/1.67|2-5-6-2-1
\Fawkner|0.21/1.53|4-12-14-4-4
\Red Cadeaux|0.50/1.67|4-0-12-0-0
\Protectionist|0.03/0.80|5-0-22-9-0
\Sea Moon|0.13/1.00|4-2-12-5-1
\Seismos|-0.29/0.65|2-0-7-2-3
\Junoob|0.45/1.86|4-4-10-1-1
\Royal Diamond|0.33/1.42|6-7-21-6-0
\Gatewood|0.27/1.08|6-1-13-6-0
\Mutual Regard|-0.27/0.69|3-0-12-2-5
\Who Shot Thebarman|0.41/1.46|7-4-16-5-0
\Willing Foe|0.17/1.31|4-3-20-0-3
\My Ambivalent|-0.31/0.53|2-0-14-8-2
\Precedence|-0.26/0.77|2-4-28-4-8
\Brambles|0.56/2.27|10-9-12-1-4
\Mr O'Ceirin|1.08/3.80|6-1-5-0-0
\Au Revoir|0.18/1.13|5-5-16-7-1
\Lidari|1.00/4.00|0-4-0-0-0
\Opinion|0.17/1.09|3-3-13-5-0
\Araldo|-0.10/0.74|2-0-13-4-1
\Luicia Valentina|-0.13/0.82|3-4-22-7-4
\Unchain My Heart|0.63/3.00|4-12-13-1-0
\Signoff|0.28/1.13|7-3-14-8-0

 

[HeathySure]

Protectionist (blue and yellow) tough fella by the looks

last win was a big win. I also like how the German Television coverage is 1000 times better than the "art" angles and constant cutting from one camera to the next our racing networks foist upon us. Split screen with a constant view of the whole field and side view is the best way to view a race

 

[sethlad]

Hey sethlad iluvparis was My Ambivilent up the top of the CC market before being SCR? Do you give her any chance (ignoring the issues she's had whilst here) ? Query at the trip? Also, why are you so cold on Mutual Regard? He seems a fair EW hope.

Im not cold on Mutual Regard, can win the race in an average year.
Was very keen on Ambivalent in CC as 2400m was perfect, this seems like an afterthought after setback & told she would be lucky to
get 2 miles if dropped out of a plane.
If that info is wrong she's massive odds.

seth

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Bets placed for me:
Red Cadeaux (e/w)

Mutual Regard (win)

Boxed Trifecta: 1(Admire Rakti), 2 (Calvaryman), 4 (Red Cadeaux), 11 (Mutual Regard), 22 (Lucia Valentina)