NFL 2014 Path to the Draft Discussion

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Has to be the pick.

If the rams are trading out of the two spot it really opens the door for a number of team to go after a QB in the 2,3,4,5 range.

I could see a team like Tampa or Minnesota trading up for Bortles
Honestly at this stage the Rams have more hope trading down from pick 13
 

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Recent article from the Houston Chronicle follows. Nothing particularly new but could it's a sign of the high stakes pressure with the number 1:

"Peyton Manning, LeBron James and Stephen Strasburg are available for everyone to desire. But only one team holds the franchise-changing asset that is an amateur draft's No. 1 overall pick, and only one organization gets to make the instant star its own.
It seldom truly works, however. Manning is the anomaly, becoming a Midwestern and then a national football hero while always remaining the good guy. James changed teams and alienated his home-state fan base in search of a world championship. Strasburg began brilliantly but has since seen his ascension blocked by injuries and the limitations of modern baseball.
When the pick fails, the fall is often numbing and sometimes disastrous. MLB's draft is well known for its unpredictability and perfect hindsight. Since Magic Johnson entered the NBA as the Los Angeles Lakers' No. 1 pick in 1979, pro basketball has balanced greatness (Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan) with what-if frustration (Yao Ming) and heartbreak (Greg Oden). The NFL has followed a similar yet less productive path.
For every Manning (Peyton and Eli were both No. 1s) and Andrew Luck, there has been a JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Ki-Jana Carter, Steve Emtman or David Carr (Texans, 2002). An equally cruel list of nearly forgotten names has littered broken picks in the Nos. 2-10 range (Tony Mandarich, Heath Shuler, Joey Harrington), as the unpredictably of the NFL draft has had more in common with MLB's dartboard than the NBA's quasi-science over the last 25 years.
"From a longevity standpoint as head coach and general manager, if you miss on a quarterback - especially in the top five and starting here with the No. 1 pick - normally someone's held responsible for that," NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said.
When you're an in-need organization such as the Texans, possessing the No. 1 pick and needing a franchise quarterback, history has proved that missing bad at No. 1 or in the top few selections can keep a team in free fall and bring a regime to its knees. See: The post-1999 Cleveland Browns, who have had only two winning records and one playoff appearance since missing on Couch. See: The Portland Trail Blazers, who were given franchise-altering opportunities to draft Michael Jordan (1984) and Kevin Durant (2007). After months of in-person evaluations and closed-door research, the Blazers proudly decided to make Sam Bowie (No. 2) and Greg Oden (No. 1) theirs.
"It's hurt the entire city. The city's a different place because the basketball team missed those picks," said John Canzano, columnist at the Oregonian. "I feel like if they had gotten Jordan and Bowie right, we'd probably have gotten a bigger footprint nationally - we might even have major league baseball or an NFL team here. It would just be a better sports town.
"That's why there was so much anxiety about the Oden and Durant pick. Because it was like, 'Here's a chance for this organization to get it right.' And for whatever reason, they didn't the second time around. The next time this organization gets a No. 1 pick, they might as well trade out of it."
Third try for Texans
The Texans have twice possessed the most valuable pick in the NFL. They didn't get it right either time and missed badly in 2002, keeping the expansion franchise in beginner's land and eventually setting up the 2007 trade for Matt Schaub.
Seven years later, Schaub's collapse and the Texans' NFL-worst 2-14 record have given the franchise the No. 1 pick for the third time in 13 seasons.
Former general manager Charley Casserly helped make the calls on defensive end Mario Williams in 2006 and Carr four years earlier. Now, Casserly gets to watch GM Rick Smith, coach Bill O'Brien and owner Bob McNair try to get the pick right May 8.
Recent changes to the collective bargaining agreement scaled down rookie contracts. Quarterback Sam Bradford received a six-year, $78 million deal with $50 million guaranteed when St. Louis made him the No. 1 pick in 2010. Right tackle Eric Fisher was given $22 million, all guaranteed, for five years in 2013, when he became Kansas City's No. 1 pick.
More reasonable money has changed the weight of the selection, Casserly said. There's also not a consensus No. 1 in 2014, with South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and three early-entry QBs - Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel, Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater and Central Florida's Blake Bortles - facing question marks. But if there's an eventual franchise-changing player in the draft and the Texans miss at No. 1, the perils remain the same.
"If it's Clowney or it's somebody like that, he's one player. And that's all he is - he's one player, OK? - and it's no more than that," said Casserly, an NFL Network analyst. "The elite quarterback, that's the one that changes you. That's why Indianapolis has been to the playoffs two years in a row. Without Andrew Luck, I don't know how many games they'd win. And the elite quarterback is the luck of the draw, because if Andrew Luck comes out of school a year before, Indianapolis doesn't have him."
Wanted: franchise QB
Franchise quarterbacks have driven the NFL since its 1970 merger with the AFL. Johnny Unitas, Bart Starr and Joe Namath gave way to Roger Staubach and Terry Bradshaw, who were followed by Joe Montana and John Elway in the 1980s as an increasingly popular league was fueled by an offensive explosion.
Namath, Bradshaw and Elway were No. 1 picks. Yet Montana wasn't taken until the third round of the 1979 draft, while Tom Brady, the current gold standard for non-No. 1 QBs, was No. 199 overall in 2000.
But the Colts' 1998 choice of Peyton Manning at No. 1 clearly changed the draft. Where Dallas' selection of Troy Aikman with 1989's first pick helped set up the Cowboys' 1990s dynasty, Manning ushered in a QB craze that has yet to flame out. Since 1998, 12 of the 16 No. 1 selections have been quarterbacks. Five straight were chosen from 2001-05, then four in a row were picked from 2009-12.
The Texans have never had an All-Pro QB and have only two playoff victories since their inception. On paper, the highest-profile quarterback in the 2014 draft - Manziel - is also the most flammable. Simply by having his name officially attached to the Texans on May 8, the former A&M star would send an organization that's already the biggest sports entity in Houston into its next stage of popularity.
Manning recreated the Colts, and Luck revitalized Indy. Yet Michael Vick (No. 1, 2001) dragged Atlanta down with a dogfighting scandal, and Robert Griffin III (No. 2, 2012) already has been through the media wringer in Washington in just two seasons.
Ah, youth
"For every Manning and a Luck, there's a Ryan Leaf. … The younger the player and the more high-profile it's been, the riskier it is," said David Carter, executive director of the USC Sports Business Institute. "(Players) still don't even know what they don't know yet, and they'll still do boneheaded things because they're kids.
"It's really risky to tie a marketing campaign or your franchise's notoriety around a young ballplayer. … It doesn't work out far more often than it is successful."
Manziel is widely viewed as a more dangerous selection than Bortles or Bridgewater, setting up a potential lose-lose for the Texans. Take him at No. 1 and miss on the pick, and the franchise will never hear the end of it. Pass on Manziel and watch him become a superstar in another city, and the Texans would spend the next decade dealing with their own version of Oden-Durant.
"(Portland) didn't have the courage to make the right pick. They made the safe pick, the easy pick," Canzano said. "And I doubt there are many GMs in that position that would've had the guts to make the right pick, which we all know was Kevin Durant.
"Sports, and especially the NFL, is set up where the draft … we have so many metrics and so much data the GMs and the team presidents have to make their decisions. A lot of that isn't just to help them get the pick right - it's to help them justify the pick. Guys don't want to get fired. And you can get fired for missing on the No. 1 pick."

I'd feel some pity for them if they weren't being paid the big bucks.
 
Then there is the St Louis Post Despatch:

"
Rams management hoped teams would fall in love with quarterbacks during the NFL Draft evaluation period and bid up the value of the second overall pick.
It appears the opposite is happening. Johnny Manziel stock appears to be trading low right now and teams appear to be cooling on some other top QBs as well.
Maybe that is just pre-draft posturing. Or maybe, just maybe, teams won’t stage an early run on quarterbacks in this deep draft.
There is so much quality in this draft at other positions, such as wide receiver, offensive tackle and linebacker. And there are a lot of interesting quarterbacks bubbling up from the lower to mid-rounds.
Here is how some experts are sizing up the scenario:
Greg Cosell, Yahoo! Sports: “The pocket throws are nice enough to make you think you have something to work with. You also visualize him breaking down defenses on third down with extended plays. Then his glaring lack of discipline pops into your head, all the throws he leaves on the field, and it makes you wonder: What will Manziel be in the NFL? Do I have a comfortable answer? So you start debating with yourself, what kind of offense am I going to run if I draft Manziel early in the draft? Do I need to build a complete team around him, like the Seattle model with (Russell) Wilson? Limit him as much as possible as he learns how to play NFL quarterback? Remember, Wilson ran an NFL offense at Wisconsin. Maybe put Manziel in the shotgun here and there to stress the defense, and make it account for read-option elements. Or take the opposite approach, and let Manziel basically run the same kind of offense he ran at Texas A&M? Spread it out, keep it simple, let him run around and hope he makes the spectacular plays that defined him in college. Is that viable in the NFL?”
Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com: “History, prior association and a semi-sensational quote tell us one thing. The mock drafts Insider are telling us another Insider. Whom to believe when it comes to projecting the likelihood the Minnesota Vikings would select Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel if he is available at No. 8 next month? There is no telling what is truly going on inside the heads of Vikings coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner, two of the three most important people involved in the decision. (The third, general manager Rick Spielman, has pledged to draft players who match the sensibilities of his coaching staff.) We can, however, say this with confidence: Manziel would represent a stylistic departure from the offense played on the teams Zimmer and Turner have coached throughout their combined 49 NFL seasons.”
Mike Tanier, Sports on Earth: “Meanwhile, Teddy Bridgewater reportedly continues to struggle. I think Bridgewater is the best all-around quarterback prospect in the draft, but the longer the pre-draft run-up continues, the more he looks like an undersized, step-too-slow guy whose arm is not that great and accuracy is not as tight as advertised. In other words, he is morphing into Tajhy Boydwater.”
Jarret Bell, USA Today: “Maybe this is the year quarterbacks are pushed down the board rather than up. The best value might be in Round 2, given the notion there's not much separation among the top half-dozen . . . Surely, counter-temptations loom: Bridgewater's composure; (Blake) Bortles' upside, wrapped in prototypical measurables; and Manziel's scrambling as a gunslinger. This brings the 2011 draft to mind. Three years ago, Cam Newton emerged as the No. 1 overall, amid extended debate comparing him to Blaine Gabbert. Former Carolina Panthers general manager Marty Hurney told me it was such an earnest process that they didn't settle on Newton until about a week before the draft. Whew. They got that one right. Gabbert, selected 10th by Jacksonville in 2011, was traded to the San Francisco 49ers last month for a sixth-round pick. He wasn't the only reach. The Vikings took Christian Ponder with the 12th pick. The Tennessee Titans chose Jake Locker at No. 8. And it should be noted the Jaguars, Vikings and Titans have all switched coaches since 2011, while Jacksonville also has another GM, Dave Caldwell.”
Peter King, SI.com: “I’ve heard that at least four quarterback-needy teams—Houston (first pick), Jacksonville (3), Cleveland (4) and Oakland (5)—are strongly considering passing on quarterbacks with their first picks and waiting until their second or third selections. Simple reason: They’re not in love with any of the quarterbacks, and there are too many other good players who are surer things than a quarterback you have sincere doubts about. For that reason, there could be more quarterbacks taken in round two than round one. For instance, Jacksonville really likes Jimmy Garoppolo of Eastern Illinois, and he’d likely be there high in the second round when the Jags pick again, at 39.
Erik Galko, Sporting News: "The Browns will draft a quarterback someplace in the top-40 picks. That seems clear. Which one might they target? That’s less clear. From what I’ve heard, the scouting staff may prefer Derek Carr and Garoppolo, both 26th or 35th overall targets. However, new coach Mike Pettine and owner Jimmy Haslam reportedly are excited about the potential of landing Johnny Manziel. Optimum Scouting has long had Manziel as the Browns pick at No. 26 overall because of these rumors. There’s simply not a clear team fit for Manziel in the first round.”
Pete Prisco, CBSSports.com: “I keep hearing all this talk that Eastern Illinois quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo might be a first-round pick. If he does go in the first round, somebody would be making a big mistake. I watched some Garoppolo tape last week and I saw a passer who has a quick release, a solid arm on medium throws, but a quarterback with a lot of questions. Two things bothered me: He hops in the pocket and he seems to pat the ball a lot before making a throw. Are those fixable? Maybe. He also seems to feel pressure when it's not there and leave a good pocket at times. He played in a quarterback-friendly offense, and did some good things, but for anybody to say he should be taken in the first round is crazy. I would take him in the third or fourth and realize I have a project to work on for a year or two.”
SO THE RAMS SHOULD TRADE BRADFORD
Or so wrote Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com:
About a month from the draft, at a time when there are growing rumblings among scouts that the overall strength of elite players at positions other that quarterback could lead to the passers falling a bit, this might be as good a time as any to covertly gauge a market for Bradford. If it's me, I'm seeing if someone else out there would want to buy-in to Bradford's antiquated contract that's the offspring of a collective-bargaining agreement long since overhauled.
If I could opt out now -- with Bradford having two years and $27M left on his deal but all of his $50M in guaranteed money already in his pocket -- and get decent value in return, that might be too good to pass up. And several other execs I spoke with thought the Rams might be best served by taking a proactive approach to this conundrum. A team could select multiple quarterbacks in the first round of multiple drafts, for instance, and still not owe their cumulative 2014 quarterback the $14M Bradford is set to make this season.

Don't hold your breath waiting for such a deal to go down."

More indecision.
 
From MSN today:

"There's been plenty of questions about Johnny Manziel's character, but one person who coached him and is getting the similar media attention lately says there's no reason to be concerned.

Before Kliff Kingsbury became the head coach at Texas Tech, he was Manziel's offensive coordinator at Texas A&M in 2012.

Kingsbury saw first-hand how Manziel transformed from an unknown freshman into the Heisman Trophy winner in one season. And the biggest reason was his leadership with his teammates.

"Those guys in the locker room to a man would run through a wall for him," Kingsbury said on The Jim Rome Show on Wednesday. "I tell the GMs I've talked to, and head coaches, please go interview his teammates and listen to the stories they tell and how they feel about this guy because to me that's the greatest testament that any player, especially a quarterback, can have."

Every college football fan saw how many times Manziel willed the Aggies to a come-from-behind win by putting the team on his back.

"They know on Saturdays he'd die before he didn't get a first down," Kingsbury said. "He's running through people, he's selling out, he's diving, he's doing all the things that as a teammate you want to see your teammate do. He attacks the game every Saturday with a competitiveness I've never seen and a fearlessness I've never seen and those guys will follow him anywhere."

For what it's worth....
 
Tom Savage invited to the Green Room at the NFL Draft, first day.

He should go; even if not drafted in the first round.

Considering a few months ago he was projected between the 5th-7th round or a top UDFA, he should go.

It was less than two months ago. Maybe more. Went to Walters and CBS for QB draft rankings and info and he was like 17th and likely UDFA. He's been moving up since. I guess his vagabond college career was more suspect than his abilities.
 
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...rts-strong-pro-day-will-boost-nfl-draft-stock
Garrett Gilbert's strong pro day will boost NFL draft stock
By Gil Brandt NFL Media senior analyst

DALLAS -- Sometimes, even this deep into the NFL draft process, a prospect rises from seemingly out of nowhere. For me, that prospect this year is SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert."

"He looks like a bigger version of his father Gale, who played 11 seasons in the NFL (Gale remains the only player to play on five straight Super Bowl teams) with the Seahawks, Bills and Chargers.Garrett Gilbert measured 6-foot-3 7/8 on Friday and weighed 221 pounds. He ran the 40 in 4.81 and 4.83 seconds, had a 29.5-inch vertical jump, a 9-foot-9 broad jump, ran the short shuttle in 4.43 seconds and the three-cone drill in 7.30 seconds."

"Gilbert was a five-star recruit at Texas, where he had a lackluster career, to say the least. He graduated in three years and transferred to SMU in 2012, hoping to resurrect his career under June Jones. There might not be a better quarterbacks coach than Jones, who has played or coached the position in college and the NFL since 1971. Thanks to Jones,Gilbert is a different quarterback than he was at Texas, and Jones believes he'll only get better in the NFL. I think so, too. He'll surprise people with where some team takes him in the draft, and he'll surprise even more with his NFL production."
 

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-matt-millers-latest-scouting-notebook-update

The Scout’s Report

— There has been unlimited talk about Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel this offseason, and a well-placed source told me this week to "expect a draft day surprise" when it comes to the Heisman Trophy winner. What that surprise might be, we'll have to wait and see.

— A source with knowledge of the Houston Texans' draft board told me the owner prefers Manziel, with head coach Bill O'Brien favoring defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. The scouts? They're said to want Teddy Bridgewater.

— Similarly, in Cleveland, sources tell me it's ownership and head coach Mike Pettine that want Manziel, with position coaches and scouts preferring wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

— The Green Bay Packers need a wide receiver, and I'm told their current draft board ranks as Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham and Cody Latimer.

— There is no doubt the Atlanta Falcons would love to get Khalil Mack or Greg Robinson, but I'm told the coaches would be equally happy with Anthony Barr or Jake Matthews and are encouraging general manager Thomas Dimitroff to not trade up in the first round.

— Pitt quarterback Tom Savage is a media darling right now, and I can confirm that several NFL sources love his potential and upside. Savage has a very good chance to be the most over-drafted player in the entire class.

— Some of the biggest news out of the combine was NFL Network's report that Alabama OT Cyrus Kouandjio had failed physicals with "several teams", but at Alabama's second Pro Day on April 8 he was able to workout. I'm also told he won't be asked back to Indianapolis for a medical re-check.
 
This is why Bill Belichick had Manziel in for a visit....Bill is smart enough and plugged in enough to know where players might drop or rise....

-----

ESPN's Mark Dominik suggested on NFL Insiders that Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel will "fall a little more than people think" in May's draft.

Dominik's thoughts are particularly interesting because he was GMing in the NFL as recently as this past January, and it's probably a safe bet that he still talks to a lot of people around the league. Dominik opined that Manziel could fall as far as the late first round, and suggested the Texans trading back into the latter part of the frame to acquire "Johnny Football." It's no secret that Texans owner Bob McNair is a big fan of Manziel's. Houston currently drafts at Nos. 1 and 33.
 
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Said it before but say it again.

How many NFL franchises have blown picks on tall big armed QBs? So many. Just because they have the measurables for the pro-game. But were suspect in college. Year after year, NFL franchises throw a ton of resources, draft picks, and free agency money into these prototypical tall-big-armed-QBs. But there's a high bust rate for them. All highly touted as sleepers and the next big thing.

Kevin O'Connell, Andrew Walter, Ricky Stanzi, Brock Osweiller, John Skelton, Jamarcus Russell, Jimmy Clauson, Hunter Cantwell, Ryan Mallett, etc etc.....now Tom Savage, Logan Thomas, Jeff Matthews in this draft class.

Teams continuing to pour themselves into them, keep on trying year after year, but will downplay Manziel and say he's not worth the risk. If any college QB is worth the risk, it's Manziel, one of the biggest playmakers in many years.

Time to perhaps put some of the other things above "height".

1. Hand size
2. Moxy
3. Intangibles/Leadership
4. X-factor
5. Clutch
 
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This is why Bill Belichick had Manziel in for a visit....Bill is smart enough and plugged in enough to know where players might drop or rise....

-----

ESPN's Mark Dominik suggested on NFL Insiders that Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel will "fall a little more than people think" in May's draft.

Dominik's thoughts are particularly interesting because he was GMing in the NFL as recently as this past January, and it's probably a safe bet that he still talks to a lot of people around the league. Dominik opined that Manziel could fall as far as the late first round, and suggested the Texans trading back into the latter part of the frame to acquire "Johnny Football." It's no secret that Texans owner Bob McNair is a big fan of Manziel's. Houston currently drafts at Nos. 1 and 33.
There is a reason MD isn't a GM right now though. His player evaluation was shithouse. Manziel will be a top 10 pick. Bridgewater might slip out of 1st round. If Savage goes ahead of Bridgewater, the world has gone mad.
 
There is a reason MD isn't a GM right now though. His player evaluation was shithouse. Manziel will be a top 10 pick. Bridgewater might slip out of 1st round. If Savage goes ahead of Bridgewater, the world has gone mad.
I agree. Manziel is a top 3 pick really. Savage is overrated and should be going 5th round. Bridgewater shouldn't slip out of the 1st, tho I do think he might slide.

But i have to say, I have never seen a draft this open in my time. So many possibilities. So many teams right from #1 overall down could take anyone.

Loving it....especially the best thing Goodell has done is try to restore that sense of not knowing who the pick before the name gets called.
 
I've read across a number of US newspaper websites but can't extract much but I'll try ( and reserve the right to be wrong):

1. Of the 3 QBs (Manziel, Bortles and Bridgewater), I expect Bridgewater to drop but not a Geno Smithesque drop.
2. Clowney will go top 3 as teams will trade up to get him if he doesn't go 1.I still think he'll go number 1 to get a Watt/Clowney defence.
3. Derek Carr will do better than one of the 3 QBs mentioned above.
4. Teams will trade up and down at will especially between picks 15 - 27 to pick up a player that slides.
5. Watkins will go top 5 ( and that's being conservative as I can see him going between 3-5 to whichever team that have those picks - remembering there may be trades ).

These predictions will probably blow up in my face but I'm having a shot.
 

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