With Christensen AND Varcoe gone I dare say at least one pick may go to someone with elite speed. Cockatoo or Garlett?
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2014 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch
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Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Look I think the draft overall is not as good as some drafts I really like, mainly 2010 and 2011 but the depth is ok. I remember thinking (for a brief moment earlier this week) what I would have done if we got #5 in a Bundy trade, and I wouldn't have been sure, outside of Petracca and Brayshaw and Wright (big guys are still a pretty big risk that early in the draft) the rest is fairly even and there's some players I think will be very good, but not a lot of outstanding elite prospects to me.
I am not sure about KPD's, I would take Durdin or Goddard if they slid, but not much else in first round. Maybe as a later pick.
I also think with Bundy gone we need to pick up some speedy players, we lack a lot of that other than Murdoch, and he tends to be inconsistent. But a lot of those guys are risky which I don't want (no more first rounders who are as risky as Smedts given where our list is at please) I think Garlett is risky for consistency and Cockatoo for injury, Pickett will probably be gone. Ahern is the one I would hit late in the first round but he floats in and out of games so it still worries me.
I also really rate Duggan with that 21 pick although I realise we will need to focus on some more pure mids with Bundy gone now, so he is less likely.
meto
Norm Smith Medallist
After coughing up Dunstan last year I'm wondering if there's any fancied mids over there who might make a sudden impact in 2015.
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Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Gore from SA is not a bad bet IMO.
I asked Knightmare this question and he replied that other than guys who will go top 5 who we can't get, Bampton would be the next best bit he thinks, along with Neal Bullen.
meto
Norm Smith Medallist
He had an outstanding final vs Metro he's 183cm and already 86kg, has gone on with it at SANFL senior level and playing well, was one I was thinking of but wasn't sure to make a call on him.
I am not too worried about drafting direct replacement for Christnesen, I think that Lang fits a similar prototype as that smaller inside-outside mid with a little pace and good footskills, if he has the tank built up over the pre-season he could be a round 1 inclusion. I don't think that we will go tall since we drafted a key defender last year and that we have no opportunity to offer a key forward. I think that we will get the best skinny inside outside mid or 188cm tall utility that are available with our first two picks.
Stan The Caddy
Norm Smith Medallist
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Connor Menadue and Ed Vickers-Willis are two that spring to mind. I also wouldn't rule out Clem Smith if he falls to 35 which now looks like being a possibility. He wouldn't be a Bundy replacement (doesn't have the tank) but could offer some run off half back or even challenge McCarthy for the pressure/crumbing forward role. He would give us some speed and creativity that we may need with both Varcoe and Bundy now gone, and although there's not alot of him he certainly looks like the kind of player who could play some AFL footy in his first year.
I agree on Lang aswell, he looks like the ideal Bundy replacement. I also expect to see Motlop spend more time in the midfield next year and Hartman is another who could potentially play as that inside/outside mid.
I think when looking at needs we need to be looking at our entire list rather than just our perceived best 22.
I'd rather that Motlop went back to the role he played in 2013, he isn't a very good clearance player while he is an elite forward.
Besides the ruck situation we have a well balanced list, I don't see us as being weak in a particular position, that why we I think that we will for lanky flankers early on, at some point I think that we will draft a crumbing small forward and a marking midsize forward to replace Burbury but I don't see us filling these needs early in the draft.
Stan The Caddy
Norm Smith Medallist
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I actually thought Mots improved his clearance game throughout the middle part of last year before his body gave out on him again towards the end. I have no idea what his numbers were but he seemed to be winning more of his own ball than he did in 2013. I know both he and C. Scott are keen for him to play more midfield minutes next year and i think it's worth looking at, atleast in patches just to give us some pace and to give the opposition something else to worry about cos one thing i can guarantee you is that if Mots moves into the midfield opposition coaches will be asking each other the question as to whether they send someone to him or not.
I do agree that our list is well balanced although if there was one need that i would like to see targeted it would be a quality small defender who can defend well, along with a strong attacking element to his game either by foot or with their speed or preferably both. Liam Duggan would fit this need perfectly IMO.
On Motlop, statistically he is winning more contested ball( which has a wacky definition) but he isn't a large clearance winner, after the second hawthorn match, vinum coupe recorded the outcome and which players where involved at each centre bounce, while there was a very small sample size, Moltop's presence at a centre bounce was a good indicator that we weren't going to win the clearance.
I am willing to back in Bews as our next small lock down defender. While I recognise that his attacking game currently has been lacking, his defensive game is very strong. I expect that his attacking game will improve with more exposure to senior football, he has plenty of athleticism and likes to take on the game, I can't comment on his disposal I simply haven't seen him display it enough to form an opinion on it at AFL level. I was hoping that we would be able to move Guthrie back to sure up the defense but that doesn't seem likely now.
Stan The Caddy
Norm Smith Medallist
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Fair enough on Motlop, I'm not going to try and argue that he's a good clearance player cos he's not but it's something that i wouldn't mind the club perservering with, particularly now that Bundy has left. It's atleast good to hear that his CP numbers went up and hopefully that is something that he keeps getting better at.
In no way am i saying that Bews isn't a good prospect but I still think we need another to compliment him. I've liked Bews ever since the 2012 VFL GF. His closing speed that day caught my attention and defensively he has alot of potential whilst offensively i think he has potential but still needs to improve in that area. I was thinking the exact same thing with Guthrie but now can we afford to take him out of the midfield? All of Varcoe, Kelly and Enright played predominantly in defense last year. If bews takes Kelly's spot as our lock down type and perhaps Thurlow can play a similar role to Varcoe as a rebounding half back i just think we need another quality small defender to take over Enright's role when he eventually retires, and if it's not going to be Guthrie then we need to find one pretty quickly cos chances are this will be Enright's last year.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
I do agree with you, I think Lang will be a good replacement for Christensen, I am not sure it ill be next year though as I don't think he's physically ready, I think it will be a combination of things including Caddy being a fulltime midfielder now (given he's starting to get the endurance for it), Stokes in there full time with McCarthy taking his forward spot, Cowan plays that type of inside/outside role if he ever gets fit and they may even get someone like Newton as a clearance player which would release Duncan to more of an outside role (I have always thought he would be an outstanding HFF/rotating into the midfield, we've just never had the midfield depth the last two years to release him there). Plus whoever we draft with the 2 first round picks this year might ultimately replace Bundy.
On the bolded I am not sure I agree. Skinny is probably something I would shy away from because I really think where our list is at demographically (and this is enhanced with Christensen going) we can't afford to take too much risk this year, we need to nail these picks. For example Menadue is someone who looks like a good player but he is physically so slight I wouldn't be risking him in the first round when you have much safer options like Blakely, Gore, Bampton and even De Goey.
Secondly I tend to like my utilites as a rule but I think we have a lot of them so not sure if we specifically have to get another one unless he so happens to be the best available player. Caddy is the closest thing I have seen to Chapman since Chapman in terms of that he could either be a 200 game inside mid or a 200 game high impact forward depending on where you play him (we will play him mid but he could do either). Duncan can play midfield wing or forward flank, Cowan has played a lot off half back in the vfl, Smedts is a true utility (I don't think he'll make it but for the purposes of this discussion I'll include him), due to his size and speed Jansen could end up being either a mid or a forward, to me Lang is very versatile, Hunt can play tagger wing or small defender and Guthrie is an equally good midfielder or small defender. Horlin Smith is the only one of our young players who I can think of that can only play one position, due to his lack of pace. So I think we are a fairly versatile side.
Pure_Ownage , good assessment.
Whether we all have built an expectation on what Wells will do , I can see what 10L I'd saying , t what we have done a lot.
I hope we can find guys that closer to ready than that, whether they are skinny or prebuilt.
Just the best we can get Blakely seems to fit that. Playing wafl appeals. I also think we will look for running types with speed and stamina
Do we go for the big roll of dice or as you say take a less risky kid could we must get a win from it. Could that count out a Cocatoo type
One observation you made on Jansen's size. mid or forward. I too was wondering if his size could mean a spot elsewhere but I was think backline. Very strongly built kid, has good speed from a congested contest. Just a thought.
Lang and Christensen is not a comparison id sort of made but I suppose its there to see.
Whether we all have built an expectation on what Wells will do , I can see what 10L I'd saying , t what we have done a lot.
I hope we can find guys that closer to ready than that, whether they are skinny or prebuilt.
Just the best we can get Blakely seems to fit that. Playing wafl appeals. I also think we will look for running types with speed and stamina
Do we go for the big roll of dice or as you say take a less risky kid could we must get a win from it. Could that count out a Cocatoo type
One observation you made on Jansen's size. mid or forward. I too was wondering if his size could mean a spot elsewhere but I was think backline. Very strongly built kid, has good speed from a congested contest. Just a thought.
Lang and Christensen is not a comparison id sort of made but I suppose its there to see.
I will be intrigued to see where this kid goes. I wonder how much of a risk his previous injury history represents now? The fact he has had a pin inserted into his foot I wouldn't think is a great sign but I really don't know. But his mixture of explosive pace, ball winning ability and finishing is quite unique in this draft and will probably tempt some club to jump early. Ironically he is exactly the type of player we need. If Wells pulls the trigger at 21 I'd be wrapped, assuming they have done a thorough due diligence on his injury status.
The reason why I think that we will go skinny is that generally when you get a 18 year old player who has an AFL ready body with a pick in the 20s they often have a deficiency elsewhere or limited development which is why they weren't taken earlier, I don't think that any player we draft this year has to be good to go for next year, I jsut don't see them getting a lot of opportunity to play next year. Even with the loss of Christensen, Hunt and our other less fancied midfielders we have Lang, Hartman, Jansen with Thurlow and Smedts (I am quite optimistic on his chances, he just needs 12 months without injury) on the flanks ahead of our draftees.
Given that we have a decent core of midfielders under 24(Duncan, Caddy, Guthrie, Horlin-Smith) who have made it being led by Selwood we can still afford to take risks. It's not as if we are rebuilding from scratch. The reason why I say draft the best skinny kid is because there is a chance that there ceiling is as high a player taken in the top 10 of the draft its just that there development is a year or behind the more fancied prospects.
Good post as well. Its Wells method no doubt to grab the longer term kid with better upside.He also generally has a bias to that 185-190 size. I wonder if the right player there we could afford to go smaller than normal for the same reason, he may get a kid underrated due to his height.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
I agree with your general principle but I think you need to look at it on a player by player case by case type of thing. For example neither Weller or Blakely lack upside, they have plenty, they are just less boom or bust risk than someone like Menadue (which is why I made the comparison). I am not talking about whether we get someone physically ready to play next year, I agree with you that isn't a concern, but more generally how likely they are to make it as 200 gamers.
I don't think we can afford to take risks as much as you do (I still respect your opinion though). My idea with drafting is you need to project forward three years because thats about when you will start gettiong decent impact from drafted players, ocassionally you get a Selwood but most often they take longer. So 3 years forward to 2017/2018 all the 28 + players are gone except Selwood and we are basically replacing a whole defence and parts of our forward line (Bartel, Stokes). Due to things like Smedts not coming on (you and I disagree there I think he is a fairly likely bust unless they change his role), Menzel and Vardy having significant injuries and now Christensen going, we have a fairly large hole in the age bracket where you would expect drafted players to be taking over the roles of the premiership players, as Duncan is now doing. This will only be exacerbated by 2017 so I think given some of those injuries and other issues we really need to nail these draft picks this year, and particularly with the two first round picks I wouldn't be taking much risk. Of course always ensure you pick a guy who has significant upside, I agree, but ensure you pick someone who is a very good chance to make it and don't take unnecessary risks (for example this would be taking a more risky pick when Blakely is there).
Great post, you addressed so many different thing I don't know where to start, I am going to break it up.
This is true for all of recruiting, I would be happy if we got Weller at pick 14. When I was talking before about a skinny kid I didn't necessarily mean a player less than 70 kgs. I agree with you it is a balancing act but Wells often takes a risk that a player will overcome either injury or weight deficiencies and back the raw talent, it doesn't always work out this way.
List management can be a little weird at times, you can often know your teams deficiencies and what types of players you need to bring to your club but they just aren't available at a sufficient level of talent at your pick. Certain players develop well beyond any reasonable expectation in positions that were unforeseeable at the time. My philosophy is that rather than look ahead at future retirements, I believe that it's best to have prospects available in all positions, do we have enough midfielders on our list, small forwards etc. Are there players ready to stand up incase of a long term injury. Most of the players who will replace our next group of retirees are already on our list not the guys we draft in the next couple of years.
We really did mess up our transition between generations, and while I love Enright, Lonergan and Kelly, had they been retired or traded it would have made the job of the match committee a lot easier next year. A lot of hard decisions need to be made and they probably won't.The reason why I am not worried about risk is that I see that we have more kids on our list than opportunity available, not all of them will work out anyway, they kind of act as insurance for each other for example Walker is insurance of Vardy who was insurance for Brown. In the next couple of years we are going to be drafting a lot of players, baring a lot of trading we will probably bring in 5+ players per year for the next three years in the national draft. As more and more of our established players retire we will take less risks at the draft the players we draft early are more likely to be more physically mature ( and unfortunately we might even have a top 10 pick to use).
This is true for all of recruiting, I would be happy if we got Weller at pick 14. When I was talking before about a skinny kid I didn't necessarily mean a player less than 70 kgs. I agree with you it is a balancing act but Wells often takes a risk that a player will overcome either injury or weight deficiencies and back the raw talent, it doesn't always work out this way.
List management can be a little weird at times, you can often know your teams deficiencies and what types of players you need to bring to your club but they just aren't available at a sufficient level of talent at your pick. Certain players develop well beyond any reasonable expectation in positions that were unforeseeable at the time. My philosophy is that rather than look ahead at future retirements, I believe that it's best to have prospects available in all positions, do we have enough midfielders on our list, small forwards etc. Are there players ready to stand up incase of a long term injury. Most of the players who will replace our next group of retirees are already on our list not the guys we draft in the next couple of years.
We really did mess up our transition between generations, and while I love Enright, Lonergan and Kelly, had they been retired or traded it would have made the job of the match committee a lot easier next year. A lot of hard decisions need to be made and they probably won't.The reason why I am not worried about risk is that I see that we have more kids on our list than opportunity available, not all of them will work out anyway, they kind of act as insurance for each other for example Walker is insurance of Vardy who was insurance for Brown. In the next couple of years we are going to be drafting a lot of players, baring a lot of trading we will probably bring in 5+ players per year for the next three years in the national draft. As more and more of our established players retire we will take less risks at the draft the players we draft early are more likely to be more physically mature ( and unfortunately we might even have a top 10 pick to use).
Pivo
Brownlow Medallist
- Thread starter
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There might be a surprise but I think Blakely will be there or thereabouts with that selection.
If we land Marchbank and Blakely I'd be pretty comfortable.
Harry Taylor, Mitch Duncan, Shane Kersten, Joel Hamling & Jarrad Jansen are all current WA boys on the list.
Obviously if one takes our fancy we'll draft 'em but we don't mind South Australians.
I honestly think Lang is the guy to do that job.
Finds it on the inside but can work on the outside. Lang is pretty willing to get from contest to contest as well.
He is a clever player as well. Uses the ball well. Problem is next year as I doubt Lang will put up the same kind of numbers we'll be losing.
On Gore's game v Vic Metro in the U18 final:
"Dean Gore won his own ball and proved he can have an impact going forward, courtesy of his strong frame and terrific hands, finishing with 21 disposals (11 contested).
The inside midfielder, who stands at 183cm and weighs 86kg, was superb at the stoppages and possessed an uncanny ability to keep his feet, with eight clearances, eight inside-50s and seven score involvements."
Source
I am a huge fan.
SJ
Premium Platinum
When you're done, post it in the existing draft thread, then I'll get a copy of it into the OP.
I have a very strong feeling that if Jayden Laverde is still around for our p14 then we'll have him.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
At least our trade week makes kit easier for me to win our guess the draft selections comp this year!
We won't draft a KPD this year (much as I want us to), we will try and turn either Blitz or Walker into one (early rounds of the vfl will tell us which one is the plan)
Needs are mainly the midfield, we need a couple of inside contested mids and we could also use a quick inside/outside mid, without Varcoe and Christensen we lack pace outside the 22 so one pick for that and two picks for the inside mids.
If someone like Pickett could get past WC and to 14 that would be ideal. Weller would be a great result and Ahern would also be another option if he gets that far. I have a feeling we might try and take the inside/outside player at 14 and then the inside mids with out two later picks as there are more inside mids so more are likely to drop to the 2nd round. I really like Bampton for our 2nd rounder, also Gore. Probably less likely we get Blakely at 14 now but still hope we do.
We won't draft a KPD this year (much as I want us to), we will try and turn either Blitz or Walker into one (early rounds of the vfl will tell us which one is the plan)
Needs are mainly the midfield, we need a couple of inside contested mids and we could also use a quick inside/outside mid, without Varcoe and Christensen we lack pace outside the 22 so one pick for that and two picks for the inside mids.
If someone like Pickett could get past WC and to 14 that would be ideal. Weller would be a great result and Ahern would also be another option if he gets that far. I have a feeling we might try and take the inside/outside player at 14 and then the inside mids with out two later picks as there are more inside mids so more are likely to drop to the 2nd round. I really like Bampton for our 2nd rounder, also Gore. Probably less likely we get Blakely at 14 now but still hope we do.
One inside, one outside. It appears likely that Weller will be gone. I reckon your call of Gore or Bampton for 35 is a good one now. More likely to get a classier type with 14. I'd be still tempted to take Cockatoo at 14. Risky. But hasn't our whole trade period been?!
14 - Ahern or Cockatoo or Blakely (if we go inside first)
35 - Gore or Bampton or maybe Smith or Cavka?
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Apparently North are keen on Cockatoo (he trained there at the start of the year with the AIS thing) so if we want him 14 it will have to be. I don't want to risk it with his injuries but we may do.
It's early but I think Weller will get to 14. Top 9 or so to me at this stage looking like (in no particular order) Petracca Brayshaw McCartin Wright Durdin Lever Goddard Moore Laverde. Not sure what type of player Richmond will take so Weller could get there.
Ideally I'd like a mature Isaac Smith wingman type who can play straight up but there doesn't appear an obvius candidate. I like Pickett, by gee he is risky but could be anything. Ahern is underrated. I have time for Duggan. De Goey also screams 'Geelong' to me.
I don't think Geelong will take Smith, Wells is big on kicking skills.
I just hope we get one genuine midfield instead of all utilities. I really rate Gore and Knightmare is big on Bampton.
