2014 World Tour Races.

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monty1104

monty1104

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Hi guys.

I've decided this year to make this thread a one-stop shop for all world tour races. As each WT race comes along, I'll add a link into the OP that will bring you straight to the relevant post for the beginning of the talk about each race.

The only races that will get their own threads will be TDU (given that it is a local race, therefore it will get more traffic), Giro and Vuelta. The TdF will have stage by stage threads as per usual.

I think by doing this we will be able to keep track of things a little better than having individual race threads.

 
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Tour of Oman starting tonight. Really strong field including riders such as Froome, Nibali, Rodriguez, Sagan, Boonen and Greipel just to name a few. Should be a good one for the sprinters. There's only one real climb that should worry the sprinters, though stage 3 and 4 feature short sharp climbs towards the end of the stage that might be used as good launch pads for an attack.
 

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Strade Bianche

The Italian version of the Tour of Flanders, the Strade Bianche has quickly risen in prestige amongst the riders. Named after the roads which the riders race on, Strade Bianche literally means "white roads". In place of the cobbles, riders must battle through sections of unpaved, white roads, made chiefly of a gravel consisting of limestone and marble. The Strade Bianche is only 8 years old, beginning in 2007, with Fabian Cancellara the only multiple winner, having won it in 2008 and 2012.

Riders to watch.
The first two place finishers from last year's edition are back to defend their positions, and coincidentally are team mates; Canondale's Moreno Moser and Peter Sagan. They are a huge chance to finish well up the ranks yet again, with experienced team mates Oscar Gatto one Kristijan Koren there to assist them. I have seen two different BMC line-ups. Going with Steephill on this one, Cadel Evans will be racing. I have also seen Greg Van Avaermat and Sammy Sanchez included on their roster, so if all 3 actually race, any of those 3 have the pedigree to pull off a win. Most of the regular classics riders will be present and ready to win; Cancellara, Valverde, Cavendish, Wiggins, Stannard, Bennati, Roche, Cancellara and Voigt being the the big guns. On paper, Cav is easily the best sprinter (more-so than usual), however this race has only finished in a bunch sprint one time.

My Tip.
Hard to look past Peter Sagan. He can stick with the best riders and can win from a bunch sprint. The thing with this race, or any race that isn't on a paved road, is mechanical failures or punctures can have a massive bearing on the outcome of the race.

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Good win by Michal Kwiatkowski. I thought Sagan played the final climb quite poorly. He shouldn't have attacked as he was never going to be good enough to drop Kwiatkowski. Sagan 2nd, Valverde 3rd.

I only managed to watch the last 12km. Top 9 split among 3 groups. Included Kwiatkowski, Sagan, Valverde, Cunego, Kreuziger, Cancellara, Evans, Barguil and Poels.
 
Paris-Nice
The first major European stage race for the year is upon us. This year, there is no prologue and no time trial at all. In fact, the route is rather underwhelming all round this year. Only stage 6 into Fayence has any semblance of an uphill finish, and it isn't a categorised climb. The course will appeal to a wider variety of riders than other stage races because of the lack of hills and time trials, which should result in a hotly contested race. However a lot of the big names will be using this race as a chance to get some race miles under their legs without having to really push themselves.

Riders to watch
As far as the usual stage race suspects go, the cabinet is very bare, with Vincenzo Nibali and Andy Schleck standing out like a sore thumb as the two obvious superstar riders. This race will be contested by a large bunch of riders who in the GT's would be targeting single stages, but in this race they could have the pedigree to win overall. Look out for riders such as Rui Costa, Simon Gerrans, Tejay Van Garderen, Geriant Thomas, Sylvain Chavanel, Thomas Voeckler, Jon Izaguirre, Jerome Coppel and Rafal Majka. These guys can all produce great results on their day, but this race is over 8 days, so the most consistent from these guys could take out the title.

The sprint race is also fairly interesting, as some of the usual suspects (Cavendish, Greipel and Kittel) are not racing. That's not to say we wont see good racing. The sprints should feature some great riders such as Tyler Farrar, Thor Hushovd, Tony Gallopin, John Degenkolb, Matt Goss, Alex Kristoff, Tom Boonen, Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Matti Breschel and JJ Rojas.

My Tip
My tip to take out the race is Geriant Thomas. He should be consistent enough over the race to not lose time and might sneak up the ranks in the sprints to pick up some time with the available time bonuses (10, 6 and 4s for first, second and third respectively). Tony Gallopin is another in the same boat who shouldn't lose time and can sprint well enough to pick up bonuses.
 
Paris - Nice
Stage 1. Mantes-la-Jolie - Mantes-la-Jolie
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Though tonight's stage begins and ends in Mantes-la-Jolie, it finishes at different points within the town. A fairly flat race, it climbs Cote de Vert 3 times (though it is only classified twice for some reason). Expect the usual stage race strategies to play out; smaller teams send someone out in the break, someone takes both climbs to get into the climber's jersey, then they get caught and the stage finished in a mass sprint.

Look out for; a nervous last couple of km. With no Cav and no Greipel, the usual two dominant lead out trains will not be as prominent. Giant Shimano should still be there or thereabouts with John Degenkolb, however expect Garmin Sharp and BMC to be around the head of the pack as well, looking after Tyler Farrar (GSH) and Thor Hushovd (BMC)

My Tip; going with Alex Kristoff. He is a smart rider with a real turn of speed. He has a habit of pulling out good results with very little help from his team. Look for him to jump onto the back wheel of Degenkolb then kick out to pip him on the line.
 
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Paris - Nice
Stage 2. Rambouillet - Saint-Georges-sur-Baulche
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Sorry for the late and short preview, drove Melbourne --> Mildura today so I'm a bit tired. Anyway, last night's race through up an interesting finish. Nacer Bouhanni (who I inexplicably left out of my preview) went on to win the stage, which wasn't that surprising. The thing which was surprising was the lack of other big names in the top 10. Goss, Hushovd, Boonen, Kristoff and Gallopin all finished outside the top 10. The other major occurrence last night was the withdrawal of Tejay Van Garderen due to a stomach bug.

As for tonight, I'd expect a bunch sprint finish again.

My tip; John Degenkolb. Finished second last night, I think he'll improve tonight.
 
Paris - Nice
Stage 3. Toucy - Circuit de Nevers Magny-Cours
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For any rev-heads out there, yes, today's stage does finish at the Magny-Cours race track. From what I can ascertain, they will be finishing with a lap of the circuit, which should be a real treat.

Last night's stage threw up a surprise winner, with Bekin's Moreno Hofland coming up trumps. At least last night a majority of the sprinters finished up at the pointy end of the race, as you would expect.

For the third night in a row, we have a relatively flat course which will finish in a bunch sprint. In the past couple of nights, Gianni Meersman has been keeping things interesting by trying to pinch points at the intermediate sprints, however he lost a bunch of time last night right at the end of the race (puncture I believe), so his hopes have probably been snuffed out.

My tip; Given the type of course set tonight, I really think it will be between Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb. Both are in good form and are the two best sprinters out there. I'll stick with my guns and back in Degenkolb.
 
Paris - Nice
Stage 4. Nevers - Belleville
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Now things get interesting. John Degenkolb holds the overall lead right now as he has had the most consistent race so far. Don;t expect him to hold it by the end of the night though.

Looking strictly at the stage profile, it doesn't seem like a really tough stage. However the summit of Cote du Mont Brouilly comes 14km from the end of the stage. It is a short, steep climb - 3km at an average of 8.4%. This still doesn't tell the full story though. The final 1.5km are all above 9%, including one section at 25% :eek: Expect good climbers such as Rui Costa, Gerrans, Chavanel or Voeckler to have a real crack at the top of the climb and try and break away. The only sprinters I see even sticking close on this climb would be Thomas and Gallopin. I'd think that Sky would be looking to chase down the break by the start of the climb and make the climb pretty hard for the other riders, while still nursing Thomas over the top.

My Tip; Having said that Sky will control the race, I see this a the best chance for Tony Gallopin. He is only 22" behind, and only 1" behind Thomas. If he makes the move tonight, he should be able to get enough time on the pure sprinters to see him win the whole race.
 
Tirreno-Adriatico

As far as the two stage races that are currently running go, this is the one to watch. It has so much more of a varied course compared to Paris-Nice, and it has attracted a far better quality of rider, all of which SHOULD add up to a much better race. The GC contenders include the following riders; Pozzovivo, Peraud, Scarponi, Brajkovic, Kangert, Pirazzi, Gesink, Mollema, Evans, Gilbert, Basso, Pinot, Martin, Horner, Ulissi, Van Den Broeck, Quintana, Uran, Santaromita, Rolland, Porte, Wiggins, Conador and Roche.

The race itself involves 2 summit finishes, a TTT and an ITT. For the sprinters (including Cavendish, Sagan, Kittel and Greipel) there are 3 flat stages as well.

My tip: For the overall victory, my tip would have to be Rigoberto Uran. He is in pretty good form of late, is a good climber, a good time trailer and has a good team for the TTT as well. The other obvious top riders are Porte and Wiggins, both of which are better ITT riders and arguably better climbers than Uran, however Sky doesn't have the stronger TTT team going around. Contador is in the same situation.
 
Tirreno Adriatico
Stage 1 - Donoratico - San Vincenzo (TTT)

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This is essentially a prologue as a TTT. Not much will be determined tonight other than the jersey wearers. All up it's a pretty flat course, with barely a speed bump in the middle.

My Tip; Hard to look past OPQ tonight with time trial powerhouses in Uran, Kwiatkowski and Martin. Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo are also good bets. Keep an eye out for OGE as well. They have a great time trial line up, whether they ride well together is another story though.
 
Paris-Nice
Stage 5 - Creches-sur-Saone - Rive-de-Gier
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Last night saw Tom Jelte-Slagter ride a perfect race, beating Geriant Thomas on the line. Those two, along with Wilco Kelderman managed to hold off the closing peleton (though Kelderman was given the peleton's time). Though Thomas is now in the yellow jersey, he leads Degenkolb by only 3". With time bonuses available, Degenkolb must now be the favourite to take out the whole race.

Tonight's stage takes the race past Lyon. The stage itself is rater unremarkable. A few cat 3 climbs and one cat 2 climb. The cat 2 climb (Cote de Saint Catherine) is rather an "easy" climb in comparison to last night. It is a 12km drag uphill at an average of 2.8%. This could be the catalyst for an attack, but knowing Sky, they will keep the pressure up in order to try and deliver Thomas to the line.

My tip; Going with my usual tip for Paris-Nice, John Degenkolb.
 
Tirreno - Adriatico
Stage 2. San Vincenzo - Cascina
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An undulating first half of the race is followed by a pan flat final 50km. This stage will definitely be one the sprinters will try and target. With Cav currently in the leader's jersey thanks to OPQ's dominant performance last night, he is my tip to keep himself in the race lead, at least for another day.
 
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