2015 - AFL Finals Week 2

[TheExtractorFactor]

I think you mean Chaplin from Richmond's impassable defense.

Didn't you ban yourself from the board?

 

[Robo87]

How much do you envisage the crows odds tightening?
Gone from $3.55 to $3.20 in no time.

2.50 at best I reckon, that's a big stretch too. Probably 2.80 IMO

Crows are now out to $3.70.. so much for them tightening.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Didn't you ban yourself from the board?

Had a win last week = Back to punting board to drop some knowledge.

 

[Borderline]

Crows are now out to $3.70.. so much for them tightening.

Yikes, overs for mine

 

[TheKanga]

Didn't you ban yourself from the board?

We all have losses sometimes and get in a bad mood.
The mods never banned me.
I'd like to stay now.

 

[TheKanga]

Had a win last week = Back to punting board to drop some knowledge.

Nah just sticking up for my team.

 

[Robo87]

1u on crows to win by more than 15.5pts @ $6.20 SB

crows -13.5 @7.00 b365

 

[X_box_X]

I don't mind Sloane and Danger here. Sloane's season average is slightly lower than what it otherwise would have been if he didn't have injury affected games, and Danger seems to love playing Hawthorn (Sloane also).

Season Averages
Mitchell 30.8
Hodge 26.83+3.5 = 30.33
Birchall 22.79+7 = 29.79
Dangerfield 26.73 +3 = 29.73
Douglas 21.53+8 = 29.53
Walker 14.36+15 = 29.36
Sloane 22.12+6.5 = 28.62
Rioli 15.24+12.5 = 27.74

Last Time They Met
Sloane 29+6.5 = 35.5
Dangerfield 31+3 = 34
Burgoyne 23+9.5 = 32.5
Hodge 25+3.5 = 28.5
Rioli 14+12.5 = 26.5
Mitchell 25
Douglas 14+8 = 22
Walker 5+15 = 20
Birchall DNP

Second Last Time They Met
Dangerfield 41+3 = 44
Sloane 33+6.5 = 39.5
Douglas 25+8 = 33
Birchall 25+7 = 32
Hodge 26+3.5 = 29.5
Mitchell 28
Walker 10+15 = 25
Rioli DNP

Third Last Time They Met
Dangerfield 35+3 = 38
Hodge 29+3.5 = 32.5
Sloane 25+6.5 = 31.5
Mitchell 29
Birchall 18+7 = 25
Douglas 16+8 = 24
Walker DNP
Rioli DNP

Last Six: Highlighted number represents hypothetical winner
Mitchell: 35, 34, 27, 28, 36, 28
Hodge: 29, 19, 24, 18, 28, 32
Birchall: 19, 20, 21, 21, 25, 22
Rioli: 21, 19, 10, 12, 18, 17
Danger: 26, 25, 28, 16, 27, 29
Sloane: 20, 20, 25, 26, 24, 27
Douglas: 20, 24, 25, 18, 22, 25
Walker: 16, 13, 17, 13, 15, 21

There's a bit of data there. Should be an interesting market.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Sydney may win but they won't flog us.
You under rate North a bit i think...
Oh well a lot of people have NFI what they are talking about...
Everyone was saying this time last week how Richmond have so much more ''class'' in their midfield.
They were lucky we didn't kick straight or we would of won 40+

Dont get your knickers in a twist. You're a middle of the road team and that's where you'll finish. Maybe you won't get flogged, but not getting flogged would be the best possible result for you.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Didn't you ban yourself from the board?

Oh that was him? Ha, good times

 

[Hawkies]

Dont get your knickers in a twist. You're a middle of the road team and that's where you'll finish. Maybe you won't get flogged, but not getting flogged would be the best possible result for you.

Sydney are 3 and 5 against the top 8 this year, and one of those wins was Adelaide in their first game back after their personal tragedy. Yep. Nth aren't great but Sydney are not great either. Oh yeah, that Radelaide win was their last against a top 8 team

Edit: I'm a noob for going off memory. Was there 4th game back. Cheers Grotto

 

[Profphat]

Adding:
Crows +40.5 into North +30.5 1U@1.70

Followed! $1.80 on Luxbet

 

[TheKanga]

Dont get your knickers in a twist. You're a middle of the road team and that's where you'll finish. Maybe you won't get flogged, but not getting flogged would be the best possible result for you.

Sydney are deservedly favs but North have a chance with Sydney's outs.
Bring the tackling pressure put on some early scoreboard pressure and who knows an upset could be on the cards.

 

[DerpWerls]

I like it too.

Crows +39.5
North +30.5
1.5u @ $1.85

 

[GROTTO]

Sydney are 3 and 5 against the top 8 this year, and one of those wins was Adelaide in their first game back after their personal tragedy. Yep. Nth aren't great but Sydney are not great either. Oh yeah, that Radelaide win was their last against a top 8 team

Actually it was Adelaide's 4th game played back since the tragedy.

 

[free at last]

Agree, especially re: Adelaide. Surprised so many people are bullish about them. Hawthorn will win comfortably IMO.

But Adelaide beat WC comfortably a few weeks ago and WC beat Hawks last week.That is how it works doesn't?

 

[nooblet]

staggers me how much time people put into a decision on one game.

 

[Sketi]

staggers me how much time people put into a decision on one game.

There are 2 games of AFL this week as apposed to the usual 9, yet you are staggered that there is more focus on each game?

 

[csnody]

staggers me how much time people put into a decision on one game.

Yet again, nooblets amazing contribution to the weekend ahead. Keep up the positive vibes there matey.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Sydney are deservedly favs but North have a chance with Sydney's outs.
Bring the tackling pressure put on some early scoreboard pressure and who knows an upset could be on the cards.

Sure, why not

 

[stewie griffen]

Thinking Ladbrokes 2 buck faves coupled with the Crows on sportsbet.

Not overly confident either way so may as well have the free hit

 

[nooblet]

There are 2 games of AFL this week as apposed to the usual 9, yet you are staggered that there is more focus on each game?

lol

but yeah i find it interesting that a bunch of people think that david king level cliches will give them an edge betting on finals.

people are going to write 3000 word essays about "i like the way they go about it" once the grand final hits

 

[Mazza12346]

Weekend multi

Crows +18.5
Swans -10.5
Roosters -6.5
Cowboys -6.5

50@13.02

 

[bombersbackyard]

1U hawks -5.5 QTR time line
2U hawks -21.5 1.92

clarko said he expects a response so that's good enough for me, as for the swans v north game I've spent the whole week capping it and still can't pick a winner, might just tail duck brown n dicko

not touching the swans v nm game because Andrew Swallow said the prelim final still burns from last year but Adam Goodes wore buddy franklins number at training and has been turning back the clock lately but then Lindsay Thomas got off with a fine and he'll want to grab his opportunity with both hands but then you've got the rampinator in good form to towel him up also Shaw is playing freely knowing this is his last season and teddy signing this week and hes gonna show everyone that he's still got it but then the north top ups want to show that its finals time and its big boy month for them big ben brown is also playing as a hybrid big forward/crumber and his locks flow lusciously in the wind but then then games at ANZ and north haven't beaten Sydney there in 5eva and its a s**t ground but swans play there ok but nick dal said the week off is doing them all wonders but swans have been hitting form and horse isn't the one to flirt with it but then the north players got a visit from Ronda Rousey so they will all be revving to go but the swans younger players will be back in front of SOME of their home fans and out of the hostile environment of boobiaco, heeney and rohan won't play that bad, jones wont make the error of giving a fifty away since he can't hear the whistle due to crowd swans wont kick that atrociously, mcglynn cant be as bad as he was on sat, BJACK will want to step up in his brothers absence drew petrie will wanna kick some goals and do that funny fist pump dance since he kicked really bad last week

Whats everyones thoughts on the swans v north game? gun to my head and finger on the mouse I'd go swans 1-39

 

[TheKanga]

$20 on Hawthorn - 2.50 favs (luxbet)