2015 - AFL Finals Week 3

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SB sent me a text as a promo. $3.20 for Hawks 1-39 tonight. First 1000 customers though

Although I don't think this will happen tonight. Thought I would share.
 
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SB sent me a text as a promo. $3.20 for Hawks 1-39 tonight. First 1000 customers though

Although I don't think this will happen tonight. Thought I would share.
For all those that didn't get the text. You can find the bet in the ski jumping section. There is one in the cross country section for Roosters 1-12 @ 4.50 as well.
 
Yeah, found it :)

If you combine it with Hawks 40+ you can effectively get $2 for Hawthorn.

Personally I've taken it with Hawks -11.5 @ $2 and hoping for a middle. Think it will be a tight & intense affair so don't think a 40 margin is likely.
 
Going for a bit of a middle using Sportbets margin specials and LuxBets win specials as some cover in case it goes over.

$20 Hawks @ 2.5 (LuxBet)
$50 Hawks 1-39 @3.20 (Sportsbet)

Hawks Win 1-39 = $140 Profit
Hawks Win 40+ = $20 Loss

--------------------------------------------

$20 Roosters @ 2.5 (Luxbet)
$30 Roosters 1-12 @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)

Roosters Win 1-12 = $135 Profit
Roosters win 13+ = Break Even
 
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Going for a bit of a middle using Sportbets margin specials and LuxBets win specials as some cover in case it goes over.

$20 Hawks @ 2.5 (LuxBet)
$50 Hawks 1-39 @3.20 (Sportsbet)

Hawks Win 1-39 = $140 Profit
Hawks Win 40+ = $20 Loss

--------------------------------------------

$20 Roosters @ 2.5 (Luxbet)
$30 Roosters 1-12 @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)

Roosters Win 1-12 = $135 Profit
Roosters win 13+ = Break Even

Errrr, am I missing something or are you forgetting the possibility of either of them losing?
 

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Errrr, am I missing something or are you forgetting the possibility of either of them losing?

haha yes that is a possibility. I may even look to place some on the underdogs too if I can find decent odds, did something similar last week but the underdogs had much higher odds so willing to just risk it atm. By no means do i think that this bet is risk free, either team losing is a real possibility, but I believe the favourites will win. Rolling over winnings from last week so willing to just cop it if it loses.

Think that's why he said it's a "bit of a middle". But not really a middle when 2 out of 3 possibilities means you lose money.

yeah it's not exactly a 'middle', but basically just going for the margin and using the H2H win as a bit of cover if it goes over, but if its within the margin the H2H will win too. Considered putting less on the hawks margin to break even if it goes over, but I am confident it will be a close game so more likely for the result to fall within the margin, but if its over still get some cover.
 
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freos back 6 looks very iffy on paper, i know they play a team defense style of game, but i reckon if the hawks get on a roll it could get ugly. Kinda like the tigers game early in the year
 
Think that's why he said it's a "bit of a middle". But not really a middle when 2 out of 3 possibilities means you lose money.

Bit of a middle = possible outcome
 
Is Michael Johnson gonna play?

Nice weather in perth. Wind has come in but no where near as bad as when the hawks played the eagles 2 weeks ago and should die down a bit by kick off
 
Is Michael Johnson gonna play?

Nice weather in perth. Wind has come in but no where near as bad as when the hawks played the eagles 2 weeks ago and should die down a bit by kick off

I have no actual info on Johnson, but I think he is in doubt 6 or 7 times a season and ends up playing.

Seriously, he is one of my favourites so always have him in my SC team, and it seems every third week there is 'doubts' over whether he will play, and then he does play, so wouldn't be too worried.
 
I have no actual info on Johnson, but I think he is in doubt 6 or 7 times a season and ends up playing.

Seriously, he is one of my favourites so always have him in my SC team, and it seems every third week there is 'doubts' over whether he will play, and then he does play, so wouldn't be too worried.
I think it basically comes from wannabee good journalist hanging over the freo fence and seeing that he isn't training mid week and equating that to he is in doubt to play. Yet they dont realise how old he is, how his body is and realise for the other 15 weeks of the season he actually doesnt like or do much training during the week
 
Line is now creeping into 6.5 for tonight on WH.

Hawks to lead at atleast 1 break tonight? i believe hawks are a good chance-so going Hawks SU with SB's special.

edit: I think in the big games the big players step up:
.5u Hodge 2goals+ @2.87
.25u Hodge 3goals+ @8.00 b365

Also will Frawley play forward tonight??! he is listed as HF. & is @3.25 for 2goals and $10.00!! for 3goals - potential value perhaps. (A few weeks ago he kicked 6 goals in 2 games[albeit bris&carlton]).
 
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Line is now creeping into 6.5 for tonight on WH.

Hawks to lead at atleast 1 break tonight? i believe hawks are a good chance-so going Hawks SU with SB's special.

edit: I think in the big games the big players step up:
.5u Hodge 2goals+ @2.87
.25u Hodge 3goals+ @8.00 b365

Also will Frawley play forward tonight??! he is listed as HF. & is @3.25 for 2goals and $10.00!! for 3goals - potential value perhaps. (A few weeks ago he kicked 6 goals in 2 games[albeit bris&carlton]).

Frawley is the biggest s**t stain since Hawthorns jumper.
 

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