Certified Legendary Thread 2015 AFL Power Rankings

[Janus]

* off Roby. It's Adelaide's home game, so you pick Adelaide who is ranked higher. You don't get to pick and choose.

 

[Roby]

Can you explain why you have your 7th placed team [Port] beating your 4th placed team [Crows] that start with a huge home advantage and port still have one [at best] of their premier midfielders missing?

Thanks Roby.

They're playing on the same home ground, it's not a HUGE HOME ADVANTAGE.

Crows outs are more substantially more significant.

Port are in better form (even if they were very lucky in both their last two games and should be 0-4).

Inb4 Ollie Wines out makes Port a better team.

Let's hope there is a late out for Port because I personally think the Crows will win!

I rarely bet on footy & don't follow systems or the like, just follow my nose & there is no way I would take $1.88 about the Suns, esp with their outs against what is an injured but increasingly settled Lions side.

There has been mistakes in your major bets the last 2 weeks Roby, sure this isn't another one?

Not this week and hopefully never again.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Roby is one of the most valuable contributors to bigfooty. Those with eyes that can see, can see this.

 

[Kangas_11]

They're playing on the same home ground, it's not a HUGE HOME ADVANTAGE.

Crows outs are more substantially more significant.

Port are in better form (even if they were very lucky in both their last two games and should be 0-4).

Ahhh... Port are in better form. That makes sense then. I just wish there was some kind of ranking of teams on current form.

 

[Crankyhawk]

PR Tips for round 5*

Pies
Cats
Dogs
Suns
Hawks
Eagles
Freo
Dons
Port

• The Power Rankings care little that the Bulldogs are playing the Swans in Sydney, they think they are too good right now and they should take the chocolates.
• You shouldn't expect hidings this week unless your team is Brisbane or North Melbourne.
• Port Adelaide is tipped to beat the Crows by a solitary goal now provided that Robbie Gray does actually start in the showdown.
• Cats started favourites but the ommision of Mitch Clark may have put the Tigers as favourite. With Lonergan back Geelong should be still favourite.

2015 Tip Tally: 26/39

*the power rankings reserve the right to change tips based on late outs.


Betting tips for round 5

Game|Beans|Odds|Line|Staked Team|Bookie\Gold Coast v Brisbane | 1400 | 1.88 | WIN |Gold Coast | Sportsbet
\Sydney v Western Bulldogs |900 | 1.92 | +34.5 | Western Bulldogs | Luxbet
\North Melbourne v Hawthorn |480 | 1.91| -20.5 |Hawthorn | Centrebet

How are your tips out of 39 with 36 games? You have a typo monster.

 

[Roby]

How are your tips out of 39 with 36 games? You have a typo monster.

Good pick it should be 36.

This is my keyboard at home.

 

[RonSon]

They're playing on the same home ground, it's not a HUGE HOME ADVANTAGE.

Crows outs are more substantially more significant.

Port are in better form (even if they were very lucky in both their last two games and should be 0-4).

LOL.


Fantastic work Roby.

Never change!

 

[Port01]

Wines and Impey vs Crouch and Kerridge I guess, I don't think any other injured players for either side matter this year. Not sure thats a massively significant difference.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Not this week and hopefully never again.

You've dropped a lot of beans on the dogs. Your upset tip rate is about 50% this season, but you've tipped 2 this week and it's likely that it'll be about 30% after this round. And you never responded to my post, the one that I followed up after you derided my sure tip last round (based off of model predictions) when yours was marginally worse (based off of subjective nonsense).

 

[Janus]

They're playing on the same home ground, it's not a HUGE HOME ADVANTAGE.

Crows outs are more substantially more significant.

Port are in better form (even if they were very lucky in both their last two games and should be 0-4).

Let's hope there is a late out for Port because I personally think the Crows will win!

So what you're saying - and I'm trying not to laugh here - is that if Port wins, it will only be because the Crows are missing guys like Brad Crouch, Andy Otten and James Podsiadly? Meaning that no matter what, the Crows will stay 3rd in your pissant rankings while Port will probably drop thanks to whatever bullshit reason you come up with?

You just can't admit you ****ed up ranking the Crows so high based on a lucky 2012 season, and it's going to make you look ******* stupid.

 

[The Swans Blog]

So what you're saying - and I'm trying not to laugh here - is that if Port wins, it will only be because the Crows are missing guys like Brad Crouch, Andy Otten and James Podsiadly? Meaning that no matter what, the Crows will stay 3rd in your pissant rankings while Port will probably drop thanks to whatever bullshit reason you come up with?

You just can't admit you stuffed up ranking the Crows so high based on a lucky 2012 season, and it's going to make you look ******* stupid.

Final Siren already covered this - yeah he's got egg on his face, but if you put a team up high enough for long enough you'll eventually get it right.

 

[thefreodockers]

Unless that team is Richmond.

 

[thefreodockers]

Then you put them in 9th.

 

[doppleganger]

If your model is actually tipping the Dogs, why aren't you placing faith in the model and placing your beans on the HTH market and taking the Dogs as outright winners at the juicy odds of 5.50??

 

[FrankDrebin]

Going by your rankings surely the ADL / PA game is where you could make a significant profit this week?

However

ADL injuries are more significant than PA?

I know they have a lot but other then B Crouch not one of their injuries is a lock for best 22.

Please provide further analysis on why your system has tipped the lower ranked PA (who have 2 best 22 players out themselves). As the injuries excuse doesnt fly with me.

 

[hutchy31]

If your model is actually tipping the Dogs, why aren't you placing faith in the model and placing your beans on the HTH market and taking the Dogs as outright winners at the juicy odds of 5.50??

I'm definitely not a Roby apologist, but a model could tip a team in H2H by a slim margin making the H2H bet a marginal one that you might not gamble on. But if they're getting a sizeable start on the line, maybe more than 20 points, then that looks an excellent bet.

Imagine your model (or just your own opinion) had hawks to beat north by 41-42 points tomorrow. The line is -20.5 at 1.90, but hawks by 40+ is 3.20. What bet do you go with?

Depends on what your approach is to punting I would guess, but if like Roby you're promoting your model as providing betting value you go with the line.

 

[Roby]

You've dropped a lot of beans on the dogs. Your upset tip rate is about 50% this season, but you've tipped 2 this week and it's likely that it'll be about 30% after this round. And you never responded to my post, the one that I followed up after you derided my sure tip last round (based off of model predictions) when yours was marginally worse (based off of subjective nonsense).

Are you sure it's 50%, do you have the stats? I haven't checked.

Now the Suns are not favourite! So that means three upsets that the rankings are tipping, could be more with Port Adelaide and/or Eagles (expected to win by 1 point) with a late out.

Stay tuned.

p.s With a possible introduction of Milestone Modifier and Dane Swan out, the PR might even have picked the Blues this week!

 

[The Swans Blog]

Are you sure it's 50%, do you have the stats? I haven't checked.

Now the Suns are not favourite! So that means three upsets that the rankings are tipping, could be more with Port Adelaide and/or Eagles (expected to win by 1 point) with a late out.

Stay tuned.

p.s With a possible introduction of Milestone Modifier and Dane Swan out, the PR might even have picked the Blues this week!

Well, I've got your tips from this morning and it's too late to revise them. But if your model changes, let me know in the models thread. Eagles by only 1 point over GWS... are you sure about that?

 

[Roby]

Betting tips for round 5 updated

Game|Beans|Odds|Line|Staked Team|Bookie\Gold Coast v Brisbane | 1400 | 1.88 | WIN |Gold Coast | Sportsbet
\Sydney v Western Bulldogs |900 | 1.92 | +34.5 | Western Bulldogs | Luxbet
\North Melbourne v Hawthorn |480 | 1.91| -20.5 |Hawthorn | Centrebet
\Richmond v Geelong |200 | 2| +8.5|Geelong| Topsport
\Richmond v Geelong|185 |2| +8.5|Geelong| Palmerbet
\St Kilda v Essendon |200 | 2| +39.5 |St Kilda| Topsport
\St Kilda v Essendon|50|2| +39.5|St Kilda| Palmerbet
\Melbourne v Fremantle|200|1.92| -29.5|Fremantle| Bookmaker

Original Betting Tips

 

[Duck Farmer]

You just can't admit you stuffed up ranking the Crows so high based on a lucky 2012 season, and it's going to make you look ******* stupid.

Don't be silly. The inertia from the Crows 2012 season is keeping them up in the same way the inertia from the Bulldogs 2012-14 seasons is weighing them down.

 

[Roby]

Betting tips for round 5 updated again

Jamison out. Pies should take this easily.

Game|Beans|Odds|Line|Staked Team|Bookie
\Carlton v Collingwood |550 | 1.90 | -8.5 | Collingwood | TAB

Original Betting Tips

 

[The Swans Blog]

Bit late to go changing your tips. You can't do any of that nonsense if you're running a betting shop.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Bit late to go changing your tips. You can't do any of that nonsense if you're running a betting shop.

Yes, I'd say that original bets stand plus new bets. Will calculate later when not using phone.

 

[RonSon]

Bit late to go changing your tips. You can't do any of that nonsense if you're running a betting shop.

I have full confidence in Roby and if I were a customer of his cash for footy tips service would have no problem putting my money down yesterday only to have Roby them change them at the last minute tonight.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I have full confidence in Roby and if I were a customer of his cash for footy tips service would have no problem putting my money down yesterday only to have Roby them change them at the last minute tonight.

Twice today, once yesterday. Even changed it an hour before the match.