Certified Legendary Thread 2015 AFL Power Rankings

[Roby]

Losing a lot of beans on the dogs bet. This performance should put an end to your considerable over inflation

Didn't your Beloved System lose money again this week had it gone against the betting market. Only beat the line in two out of nine games, again. It's done three or less... four times in the last five weeks and probably around five or six times this year in eight rounds. But really who is keeping count.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Didn't your Beloved System lose money again this week had it gone against the betting market. Only beat the line in two out of nine games, again. It's done three or less... four times in the last five weeks and probably around five or six times this year in eight rounds. But really who is keeping count.

I don't have a beloved system I think some are better than others and it's turning out that way. But your system is shockingly inaccurate where margins are concerned so I'm surprised your line bets even come through.

But like you said last before the game, time to put swans 2nd and get over your bias.

 

[SterlingArcher]

Mods were in here again deleting on-topic conversational posts. Chief what's the go with thread moderation these days when it isn't flaming or trolling posts? The moderation team are overzealous where threads are concerned when there isn't any racism, trolling, flaming, personal attacks, vandalism or off-topic bay-13-esque nonsense. Just last night there were at least a dozen posts deleted that were on-topic with content that's been posted repeatedly in similar threads on the same topic over the years.

I asked last night and I'll ask again today, why is this thread protected whereas others are not?

I've found Gary Ablett Snr and his tin foil hats account

 

[Roby]

I don't have a beloved system I think some are better than others and it's turning out that way. But your system is shockingly inaccurate where margins are concerned so I'm surprised your line bets even come through.

But like you said last before the game, time to put swans 2nd and get over your bias.

Your surprised line bets have come through even though they have done so for five years? Great point.

Oh and by the way, the Power Rankings this year have come within predicted margin by:

• 12 points: 16 times
• 3 points: 4 times
• Exact margin: twice.

 

[AlibiMonday]

I don't have a beloved system I think some are better than others and it's turning out that way. But your system is shockingly inaccurate where margins are concerned so I'm surprised your line bets even come through.

But like you said last before the game, time to put swans 2nd and get over your bias.

Where's Roby posting margins? Nobody cares about your deep erotic margin fantasies in this thread. Lather up somewhere else, preferably out of sight.

He's giving line bets you muppet and they're largely killing it!

 

[Roby]

What a ride for Melbourne!

Obviously there is more to come.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Your surprised line bets have come through even though they have done so for five years? Great point.

Oh and by the way, the Power Rankings this year have come within predicted margin by:

• 12 points: 16 times
• 3 points: 4 times
• Exact margin: twice.

If that's the case, put it out there so that it can be independently verified. It took you 5 years to cave in to public pressure to start posting your bets, your starting bank then your units.

 

[Roby]

If that's the case, put it out there so that it can be independently verified. It took you 5 years to cave in to public pressure to start posting your bets, your starting bank then your units.

Another inaccurate post.

The rest of us will get rich and you'll die wondering.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Another inaccurate post.

The rest of us will get rich and you'll die wondering.

That's not going to happen considering I've already made profitable bets from the culmination of tips and margins provided from 5 models. It's pretty easy to get a line bet right when a bunch of independent models agree to a result. But of course there are upsets and you can never truly predict a teams' performance.

 

[Roby]

That's not going to happen considering I've already made profitable bets from the culmination of tips and margins provided from 5 models. It's pretty easy to get a line bet right when a bunch of independent models agree to a result. But of course there are upsets and you can never truly predict a teams' performance.

Since the power rankings is the only model that has posted a profit this year (surprise, surprise), the amalgamation (not culmination) of all the models may have possibly made money only if you would have gone against the tips and margins. Possibly. Then again you may have lost money either way.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Where is sthmelb_dimmies

 

[The Swans Blog]

Since the power rankings is the only model that has posted a profit this year (surprise, surprise), the amalgamation (not culmination) of all the models may have possibly made money only if you would have gone against the tips and margins. Possibly. Then again you may have lost money either way.

Your model is the only model that's focused on gambling, so assuming that the other 4 that I track and post on is wrong. Never has Squiggles posted line bets or discussed betting profit, neither has FootyForecaster, FootyMaths Blog or MasseyRatings. You've used SportsBet as an example of a model run by a betting company, so it's impractical to assess their model because of perceived market bias, which they definitely have. It translates through their odds.

Let's see, this weekend:
$90 on Geelong
$200 on Sydney
lost $10 on Adelaide.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Roby your model barely made a return this week and it was up to Fremantle to drag it over the line again and a big bet on GWS -6.5 came through as well. For 7,320 beans outlayed, you returned a modest 654.6, for a net return of 7974.6.

 

[Roby]

That's not going to happen considering I've already made profitable bets from the culmination of tips and margins provided from 5 models. It's pretty easy to get a line bet right when a bunch of independent models agree to a result. But of course there are upsets and you can never truly predict a teams' performance.

Your model is the only model that's focused on gambling, so assuming that the other 4 that I track and post on is wrong. Never has Squiggles posted line bets or discussed betting profit, neither has FootyForecaster, FootyMaths Blog or MasseyRatings. You've used SportsBet as an example of a model run by a betting company, so it's impractical to assess their model because of perceived market bias, which they definitely have. It translates through their odds.

Let's see, this weekend:
$90 on Geelong
$200 on Sydney
lost $10 on Adelaide.

The models all tipped Hawthorn to cover the lines so you tipped Sydney.

Two of them tipped GWS so you put money on Adelaide.

Roby your model barely made a return this week and it was up to Fremantle to drag it over the line again and a big bet on GWS -6.5 came through as well. For 7,320 beans outlayed, you returned a modest 654.6, for a net return of 7974.6.

Wrong, and, wrong and wrong.

Although very predictably you're embarrassing yourself, again.

All you have done for the last three years can be shown below.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I'm going by your bets, 1-2 pages ago, had an outlay of 7,320. Is this not correct? Did you 'fudge' your numbers again? Make another hilarious boo boo? I double checked before I calculated, so please, enlighten your audience.

 

[lamaros]

Roby your model barely made a return this week and it was up to Fremantle to drag it over the line again and a big bet on GWS -6.5 came through as well. For 7,320 beans outlayed, you returned a modest 654.6, for a net return of 7974.6.

Shut up no one cares about you.

 

[Hagla]

Am I the only one who enjoys reading chunkychicken's posts here? His persistence is what keeps me coming back. Roby successfully trolls me most of the time so I only really come here to see people sticking it to the man.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Am I the only one who enjoys reading chunkychicken's posts here? His persistence is what keeps me coming back. Roby successfully trolls me most of the time so I only really come here to see people sticking it to the man.

I'm a big fan of the work of sthmelb_dimmies

He's all about the cold hard numbers, can't argue with them.

 

[Alfonz]

I'm going by your bets, 1-2 pages ago, had an outlay of 7,320. Is this not correct? Did you 'fudge' your numbers again? Make another hilarious boo boo? I double checked before I calculated, so please, enlighten your audience.

If you want to continue your incessant whining that nobody wants to read, you could at least get your sums right.

Roby listed all his bets in one post, and by my calculations he got 8/12 correct (and one wrong tip was a hedged bet), total outlay of 7750, profit of 1689 (22%).

 

[MrKK]

Am I the only one who enjoys reading chunkychicken's posts here? His persistence is what keeps me coming back. Roby successfully trolls me most of the time so I only really come here to see people sticking it to the man.

Sticking it to Roby about his bets when he's been consistently turning out a profit for at least the 4 years I've been following his threads only makes chunkychicken look like a chunky goose.

 

[The Swans Blog]

If you want to continue your incessant whining that nobody wants to read, you could at least get your sums right.

Roby listed all his bets in one post, and by my calculations he got 8/12 correct (and one wrong tip was a hedged bet), total outlay of 7750, profit of 1689 (22%).

5 adjustments this round alone, including changing tip twice for Port Adelaide vs Richmond, which he had correct on Saturday.

Game|Beans|Odds|Line|Staked Team|Bookie
\Essendon v Brisbane | 650| 1.92 | -27.5 |Essendon|Betstar
\Geelong vs Carlton | 360| 1.91 | 32.5| Carlton| Betstar

Previous tips

Game|Beans|Odds|Line|Staked Team|Bookie\ Melbourne v Western Bulldogs | 1310| 1.91 | -18.5 |Western Bulldogs|TAB
\Fremantle v North Melbourne| 1070| 1.91 | -24.5 |Fremantle|Centrebet
\ GWS v Adelaide | 1020| 1.91 | -6.5 |GWS|Centrebet
\Hawthorn v Sydney| 970| 1.92 | -9.5| Hawthorn| Sportsbet
\Hawthorn v Sydney| 140| 1.92 | -10.5| Hawthorn| Sportsbet
\Gold Coast v Collingwood | 600| 1.92 | -17.5| Collingwood| Luxbet
\St Kilda v West Coast | 430| 1.85| -32.5| West Coast| Centrebet
\Geelong v Carlton | 410| 1.92 | -28.5 |Geelong|Betstar
\Geelong vs Carlton | 360| 1.91 | 32.5| Carlton| Betstar

Game|Beans|Odds|Line|Staked Team|Bookie
\Essendon v Brisbane | 350| 1.92 | -29.5 |Essendon|Centrebet
\Port Adelaide v Richmond | 440| 1.8 | 23.5| Richmond| TAB

Previous tips

Game|Beans|Odds|Line|Staked Team|Bookie\ Melbourne v Western Bulldogs | 1310| 1.91 | -18.5 |Western Bulldogs|TAB
\Fremantle v North Melbourne| 1070| 1.91 | -24.5 |Fremantle|Centrebet
\ GWS v Adelaide | 1020| 1.91 | -6.5 |GWS|Centrebet
\Hawthorn v Sydney| 970| 1.92 | -9.5| Hawthorn| Sportsbet
\Hawthorn v Sydney| 140| 1.92 | -10.5| Hawthorn| Sportsbet
\Essendon v Brisbane | 650| 1.92 | -27.5 |Essendon|Betstar
\Gold Coast v Collingwood | 600| 1.92 | -17.5| Collingwood| Luxbet
\St Kilda v West Coast | 430| 1.85| -32.5| West Coast| Centrebet
\Geelong v Carlton | 410| 1.92 | -28.5 |Geelong|Betstar
\Geelong vs Carlton | 360| 1.91 | 32.5| Carlton| Betstar

All of our powers combined, Captain... whatever; his tables look a mess since he keeps mingling updates with previous bets.

Team|Line|Odds|Stake|Return\
Essendon| -29.5| 1.92| 350| 672 \
Richmond| 23.5| 1.8| 440| 792 \
Dogs| -18.5| 1.91| 1310| 0 \
Freo| -24.5| 1.91| 1070| 2043.7 \
GWS| -6.5| 1.91| 1020| 1948.2\
Hawthorn| -9.5| 1.92| 970 0 \
Hawthorn| -10.5| 1.92| 140| 0\
Essendon| -27.5| 1.92| 650| 1248\
Collingwood| -17.5| 1.92| 600| 1152\
West Coast| -32.5| 1.85| 430| 795.5\
Geelong| -28.5| 1.92| 410| 787.2\
Carlton| 32.5| 1.91| 360| 0

Outlay|Profit|%|Net\
7750|1688.6|21.7%|9438.6

Tidy up your bet tables and stop mixing updated bets in with current bets. Otherwise, very good result, apologies for the confusion, pretty easy to mix results when you mix and double up your bets.

Line bets on Fremantle are constantly coming up and I'm surprised that they aren't top of your rankings considering that, whereas Hawthorn bets aren't coming up. It's probably worth while putting a bet on the +line for the opposition since Hawthorn have been involved in 4 close games already this season. But considering the next two opponents I'd favour a -30 line for Hawthorn.

Your rankings are underrating Melbourne, and to be honest they deserve to be pretty low, overrating Bulldogs, overrating Port Adelaide (I know, I know), underrating Sydney and Fremantle, overrating Adelaide, overrating Essendon, definitely overrating GCS, definitely underrating Collingwood. But since your rankings are configured for lines and futures, your bets are coming through at better than 50% so far this season.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Am I the only one who enjoys reading chunkychicken's posts here? His persistence is what keeps me coming back. Roby successfully trolls me most of the time so I only really come here to see people sticking it to the man.

Yes, I agree. This is what the thread is about! Why the * would anyone come here if not for the ongoing battle that raises the troll-ery to new heights?

 

[LeverPuller]

All this means is that Roby has NFI what to make of the Dees...

To be fair neither do I

 

[Ochre]

Am I the only one who enjoys reading chunkychicken's posts here? His persistence is what keeps me coming back. Roby successfully trolls me most of the time so I only really come here to see people sticking it to the man.

I come for Roby, the whole Roby and nothing but the Roby, not to hear chunkychicken whine

 

[CrimsonRaven]

I come for Roby, the whole Roby and nothing but the Roby, not to hear chunkychicken whine

If you've such a problem just block him then?