2015 - AFL Round 1

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Zealbee said:
You think GWS will easily cover?
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I reckon they will, but my original post wasn't meant to imply that (if that's what you thought).

I reckon the Giants could be headed for a ten goal win.
 

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ricardogp said:
nice tables balmainforever!

You will have to let me know how to do them!
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If I am not mistaken the hard work is actually setting up the table the first time, but after that they self populate by themselves as the odds change via a link from the spreadsheet to the odds maker. Much like if you are monitoring the stockmarket.
 
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JONES HENDO CAZ said:
Like North at $2.20. Crows have a few injury concerns and a worrisome back line.

Waite Petrie +that ugly kid should kick plenty.
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Crows will be without Thompson*, Kerridge and Crouch. (* slight chance to play in R1, 30%)

Fun Fact Brad Scott has never won an opening R1 game coaching North Melbourne in 5 seasons.:cool:

Foolish Fact - Phli Walsh has never lost an opening R1 game coaching Adelaide.:confused:
 
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GROTTO said:
If I am not mistaken the hard work is actually setting up the table the first time, but after that they self populate by themselves as the odds change via a link from the spreadsheet to the odds maker. Much like if you are monitoring the stockmarket.
Click to expand...
I just mean formatting tables in BF. I've so far just been posting screenshots from Excel :)
 
banana_bus said:
Jeez that $7 for the Dons is mighty tempting... can't remember a season where the Swans have started strongly.

Sure, there's plenty that could go wrong... but $7...
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Its also purely based on the assumption that the Essendon players being rubbed out too.
 

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Time for my weekly write up.

Carlton vs Richmond

People might call bias on this but I think Carlton are great value here. I took them at the line of +14.5 a week or so ago personally and I still there is enough value to take them at the line of +12.5. We have a great record against the Tigers in years gone past and even last year we only lost by 12 points with a fairly average team on the park. Carlton missing Kreuzer and Walker hurts, the former being a bigger loss. Some young talent coming through the ranks for us has seen us have a decent preseason and setting ourselves up for a big R1 clash. Richmond have had a decent preseason as well with a hard fought loss against the Bulldogs whilst playing their VFL side. A big win over a depleted Power side before another hard fought loss against a very good North Melbourne. I'm expecting both teams will come out and want to play an attacking game so we should see a high scoring exciting contest. Midfield is definitely where this game is going to be won or lost as I feel that both the teams line up well against each other at either end of the ground. Biggest concern for me with Carlton is getting first use of the ball from the ruck. If we can win this and then win the clearances we should be a big chance to take the match. Should be a very close match with either team winning by less than a couple of goals for my mind.

Melbourne vs Gold Coast

Ablett or no Ablett has been the biggest question with this match. It looks like he will play now, which is a huge tick for Gold Coast winning. Gold Coast have had some guns coming off injury interrupted preseasons; Ablett, O'Meara and Prestia highlighting this in the midfield department. All look set to play R1 at this stage but whether or not they will be able to perform at around 90% of their capacity at least is questionable. No Lynch or Dixon definitely hurts them up forward and should restrict their scoring to an extent. Rodney Eade's first game as coach of the Suns so it will be interesting to see how much he has changed the game plan and how quickly the players can adapt. Melbourne will be looking to improve again this year, but I have some serious questions over their team. No Dawes for this game means that Hogan will be copping all of the attention. Their midfield has improved this year but I don't think it can compare to the Suns engine room. Their defense is the big concern but with no Lynch or Dixon they will get some reprieve. Expecting a lower scoring affair based on how Melbourne played last year. It seems that they will play a high possession style of footy.

Sydney vs Essendon

Who knows what will happen here. If ASADA bans the Bombers as expected they will get smashed. I'll update this after tomorrow.

Brisbane vs Collingwood

Will be a very interesting game. Midfield is definitely where this game is going to be won. Brisbane have a better midfield right now, but overall their team lacks class on every line. The Pies looked good R1 of preseason against the young Hawks team, but struggled for the next 2 games and got smashed against the Dogs. I'm concerned about them this year, I really am. They've got the talent there to do well, but they just haven't shown enough yet. The thing that will win them the game is their KPP. Brown and Reid? should be able to handle the young Brisbane forwards and Cloke and White should be able to kick quite a few between them. If Gault plays he could be very good for them as well up forward. Brisbane have been getting enough scoring shots on goal throughout preseason, but their accuracy has been dismal. I'm confident that they will get enough scoring shots to be able to beat the Pies, but my biggest concern is that accuracy.

Bulldogs vs West Coast

Could actually be a very close and exciting match if the Dogs play like they did in their preseason match against the Pies. West Coast have the more experienced side, but they've lost some some important players for R1. If Mitch Brown missing R1 with that hamstring they could be in some trouble. I'm confident that the Eagles have the fire power to kick a winning score up forward even without Darling there as Tom Lamb looks a ready made replacement for the first month or so that Darling is out. Josh Kennedy tends to kill the Dogs as well. Midfield battle should be interesting with the Dogs having some really good young talent coming through there now after losing Griffen and Cooney at the end of last year and then Libba to injury. Should be a fairly free flowing game with both teams trying to go full out attack. The Eagles have the talent to take the chocolates.

St. Kilda vs GWS

I'm confident Riewoldt will play this week even with the doubts surrounding him. If he doesn't though this game could get ugly. GWS have recruited very well and with the further development of their young talent they will win more games this year. They've got a solid team all over the park now and outclass the Saints on every line. GWS preseason form has been very impressive and watching the games has shown me that they are full of confidence this year. No Patton this year, but Cam McCarthy looks ready to step up and play as the other KPF for them this year. Their midfield is going to rival quite a few others as one of the best in the AFL now with a lot of stars in there. They should be able to get first use of the ball through Mumford and hopefully deliver it lace out to Cameron. Being that it is at Etihad I'm expecting a pretty free flowing game.

Adelaide vs North

Both of these teams should end up around the same part of the ladder at the end of the year so it should be a great R1 clash. Crows take in the home ground advantage for the game, but I expect that most other teams have mostly figured out how to play at Adelaide Oval properly over the off season. North have recruited to push themselves into the premiership window and they will know that this game is a must win for them. My biggest concern is their defense if Hansen misses. Thompson should be able to do a decent enough job on Walker at times, but Tex looks set for a huge year. I'm expecting him to kick a bag. Then you've got Tippet on Jenkins and somebody will have to take Lynch as well. Add in Betts and Cameron as small forwards and you've got yourself a lot of problems. Crows defense is their main weakness so it will be interesting to see who lines up on who. Talia should taken Petrie, although Petrie typically ends up beating him. Waite and Black will be some challenging matchups for the Crows other talls. You'd expect based on this a pretty high scoring encounter. The midfield battle should be very interesting with both teams having quite a lot of talent in there. Jacobs vs Goldstein will be a crucial match up in the ruck. I can see this game going either way personally.

Fremantle vs Port

I'm struggling to pick a winner for this match. Both teams have some huge question marks surrounding them. Looks like Ballantyne is certain to miss now for the Dockers which is a huge loss. No Dawson, Suban and Crowley from their best 22 also and question marks surrounding Barlow and Duffields fitness. Then you've got Port who will have an underdone Trengove and Wingard lining up for their first hitouts of the year. If Ryder and Monfries miss through ASADA then its a huge hit for them. If all things go right for both clubs then Port should win for my mind. They beat them over in Perth last year in the final and they have the right style of play to beat the Dockers. Both matches towards the end of last year ended up being quite high scoring, and assuming the weather holds up I would think it will be the same.

Hawthorn vs Geelong

With the curse well and truly broken now, the Hawks should be able to run over the Cats in my opinion. They've just got too many gun players and they play such a great brand of footy. In saying that I've been impressed with the Cats this preseason at times. Clark is a huge addition to their team, but the Hawks have the defenders to take care of him and Hawkins. The Cats will always lift for these games, so I'm not expecting the margin to be more than a few goals for the Hawks. Typically these games end up being very high scoring encounters but with rain predicted in Melbourne for most of the weekend it might mean that it could be a bit more scrappy.
 
I think the Carlton, GWS and Gold Coast lines are the pick of the week for my mind. GWS 40+ not a bad bet either.
 
Does anyone know if Sportsbet, Syd vs Dons, is just temporarily suspended or will they be putting out odds after tomorrow?
 
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