2015 - AFL Round 2

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West Coast|$1.45|$1.47|$1.48|$1.47|$1.48|$1.48
\Carlton|$2.75|$2.70|$2.65|$2.70|$2.60|$2.65
\|line:14.5|line:13.5|line:12.5|line:13.5|line:12.5|line:12.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Richmond|$1.33|$1.39|$1.40|$1.40|$1.38|$1.38
\West.Bulldogs|$3.35|$2.95|$1.00|$2.95|$3.10|$3.05
\|line:19.5|line:18.5|line:17.5|line:17.5|line:18.5|line:18.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney|$1.40|$1.42|$1.42|$1.42|$1.42|$1.41
\Melbourne|$3.00|$2.85|$2.85|$2.85|$2.90|$2.95
\|line:17.5|line:16.5|line:16.5|line:16.5|line:15.5|line:15.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Collingwood| $2.45|$2.60|$2.60|$2.60|$2.50|$2.60
\Adelaide|$1.55|$1.50|$1.50|$1.50|$1.54|$1.50
\|line:11.5|line:12.5 |line:12.5|line:12.5|line:11.5|line:11.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast|$1.20|$1.18|$1.20|$1.20|$1.22|$1.18
\St Kilda|$4.60|$4.90|$4.50|$4.60|$4.35|$5.00
\|line:30.5|line:31.5|line:30.5|line:29.5|line:30.5|line:30.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adel.|$1.68|$1.70|$1.70|$1.70|$1.75|$1.71
\Sydney|$2.20|$2.15|$2.15|$2.15|$2.10|$2.15
\|line:6.5|line:5.5|line:5.5|line:5.5|line:4.5|line:5.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Geelong|$1.80|$1.75|$1.75|$1.80|$1.82|$1.83
\Fremantle|$2.00|$2.10|$2.10|$2.00|$2.00|$2.00
\|line:2.5|line:4.5|line:4.5|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:2.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Essendon|$4.25|$4.00|$4.50|$4.20|$4.60|$4.50
\Hawthorn|$1.22|$1.25|$1.20|$1.23|$1.20|$1.21
\|line:26.5|line:26.5|line:28.5|line:26.5|line:27.5|line:27.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\North Melb.|$1.18|$1.20|$1.20|$1.20|$1.18|$1.18
\Brisbane|$4.90|$4.50|$4.50|$4.60|$5.00|$5.00
\|line:32.5|line:32.5 |line:32.5|line:31.5|line:33.5|line:32.5

ODDS AT 00.00 ON 8/4/15

 

[Atavistic]

I like Port at home.

 

[BloodRet]

Like freo

 

[banana_bus]

Wow massive overreaction to Adelaides win yesterday...

 

[TheDyerLegacy]

Wouldn't mind backing Carlton.. Think WCE have a horrible midfield which should be a win for the Blues.. could use Yarran's run in Perth... With Jacksh going down could look to bring in Casboult which could stretch the already depleted Eagles KPD... I see value in the Blues...

 

[Zealbee]

Put the house on North Melbourne. Rockliff gone for 6 weeks and Brad Scott will have teamed them a new one after the loss to Adelaide.

 

[Jugada]

I like Blues, Dogs, Dees, Dockers and Pies all at the +line

 

[Anzac16]

Even after our performance the other night, Carlton appear value at the line. Daisy and Jaksch will miss for us. Expect Casboult and maybe Tutt or Whiley to come in for Daisy.

Dogs at the line is definitely okay. Richmond looked very on and off on Thursday night. Only concern is the game being at the MCG.

Demons at the line pretty good value. They played fantastic and GWS didn't impress me that much. I'd even consider taking them SU as well. Oh how times have changed...

North will probably bounce back and smash Brisbane. Probably a no bet game at this stage.

 

[BILC]

Tigers look good at 1.40, wouldn't be so confident at Etihad but we've got them covered at the G.

 

[banana_bus]

Lol ffs @ the Bulldogs value comments.

Tigers don't lose that. Another 5 goal win. Could and should be much more.

 

[Anzac16]

Lol ffs @ the Bulldogs value comments.

Tigers don't lose that. Another 5 goal win. Could and should be much more.

Can you actually post your reasoning's for a change instead of just berating people. I'm fine for other people to have contrasting opinions as it engages discussion, but we rarely seem to get that here.

Before looking at any stats, Dogs could be worth a punt at the line. They played pretty well against West Coast and appear to have found some great young talent. Are they a better team than Richmond on paper? No. But I think they've got the better form coming into the match personally. They ran with Richmond well last year (and beat them albeit at Etihad) and whilst their team looks worse on paper, I think they will actually improve slightly this year. Richmond will potentially lose Dids today which would be a decent loss to their team. To be fair though Cotchin and Martin we were well held against Carlton and had very little influence on the game. I'd say Beveridge will look to shut down these 2 as they are definitely tagable. Riewoldt definitely needs to be shut down and I don't rate the Dogs defense. They did hold JJK to just the 2 goals this weekend which is pretty a decent effort.

Overall I think the Tigers should win the game. But I'm not expecting a huge blowout. I'd say the line is around what I'd expect it to be after this weekends results. Money might come in on the Tigers line so the Dogs line later in the week could be the value bet.

 

[banana_bus]

What stats do you want?

Richmond are a top 8 side. Bulldogs are a bottom 6 side. Not sure the last time they won a game at the G (Demons don't count) as well.

The reasoning is as sound as my reasoning for last weeks match. Carlton are s**t. Richmond are a lot less s**t (still s**t).

 

[BILC]

Can you actually post your reasoning's for a change instead of just berating people. I'm fine for other people to have contrasting opinions as it engages discussion, but we rarely seem to get that here.

Before looking at any stats, Dogs could be worth a punt at the line. They played pretty well against West Coast and appear to have found some great young talent. Are they a better team than Richmond on paper? No. But I think they've got the better form coming into the match personally. They ran with Richmond well last year (and beat them albeit at Etihad) and whilst their team looks worse on paper, I think they will actually improve slightly this year. Richmond will potentially lose Dids today which would be a decent loss to their team. To be fair though Cotchin and Martin we were well held against Carlton and had very little influence on the game. I'd say Beveridge will look to shut down these 2 as they are definitely tagable. Riewoldt definitely needs to be shut down and I don't rate the Dogs defense. They did hold JJK to just the 2 goals this weekend which is pretty a decent effort.

Overall I think the Tigers should win the game. But I'm not expecting a huge blowout. I'd say the line is around what I'd expect it to be after this weekends results. Money might come in on the Tigers line so the Dogs line later in the week could be the value bet.

Apart from the game at Etihad last year we've had the wood over the Dogs.

It's been a while since we played them at the G, and personally I think we are a 4 goal better side playing at the G. They had a good win against WC but round 1 results are quite often an anomaly. I just can't see us losing this game, and I think 1.40 with Sportsbet giving cash back if we lead at any quarter is almost a risk free bet.

 

[Jugada]

Lol ffs @ the Bulldogs value comments.

Tigers don't lose that. Another 5 goal win. Could and should be much more.

Richmond were putrid for all but 15 minutes against Carlton. The only reason they were still in the match is because the Blues couldnt kick straight in the opening quarter. That is a team that you said had a worse line up than a VFL team, and if you're struggling to beat them i dont know how you could be confident against anyone.

Tigers obviously have top end talent but it falls away very quickly so the loss of Deledio will be a huge loss

 

[banana_bus]

Richmond were putrid for all but 15 minutes against Carlton. The only reason they were still in the match is because the Blues couldnt kick straight in the opening quarter. That is a team that you said had a worse line up than a VFL team, and if you're struggling to beat them i dont know how you could be confident against anyone.

Tigers obviously have top end talent but it falls away very quickly so the loss of Deledio will be a huge loss

Dominated the contest from about half way through the second quarter.

Won the game comfortably without input from Cotchin, Deledio or Martin.

I have the Dogs on par with Carlton - obviously their future is brighter with young talent coming through.

Happy to stick my neck out here, like I did last week. That 1.40 is very generous. If it was at Etihad I'd be a bit more wary.

 

[Jars#3]

I like Brisbane with that 4 and a half goal line. I also reckon Melbourne are worth something H2H and I reckon I can lock in Hawks to cover that piddly line.

banana bus I agree the Coll v Adel odds is an overreaction... if it were at the MCG I'd back the Pies but it's at Etihad... might be worth backing the line on which ever team you think will win... I'm not gonna touch that one though :/

EDIT: just remembered we beat the Pies twice last year... could be part of the reason behind those odds

 

[rideclutch]

Can you actually post your reasoning's for a change instead of just berating people. I'm fine for other people to have contrasting opinions as it engages discussion, but we rarely seem to get that here.

Before looking at any stats, Dogs could be worth a punt at the line. They played pretty well against West Coast and appear to have found some great young talent. Are they a better team than Richmond on paper? No. But I think they've got the better form coming into the match personally. They ran with Richmond well last year (and beat them albeit at Etihad) and whilst their team looks worse on paper, I think they will actually improve slightly this year. Richmond will potentially lose Dids today which would be a decent loss to their team. To be fair though Cotchin and Martin we were well held against Carlton and had very little influence on the game. I'd say Beveridge will look to shut down these 2 as they are definitely tagable. Riewoldt definitely needs to be shut down and I don't rate the Dogs defense. They did hold JJK to just the 2 goals this weekend which is pretty a decent effort.

Overall I think the Tigers should win the game. But I'm not expecting a huge blowout. I'd say the line is around what I'd expect it to be after this weekends results. Money might come in on the Tigers line so the Dogs line later in the week could be the value bet.

Fair analysis. Hard to get a read on the Tigers off that one match IMO. As impressive as it seems that Cotch/Dusty/Lids were well held yet they still won, we also had a massive advantage in the ruck and up forward, yet we didn't exactly put Carlton away. They got the job done but not overly convincing to me. My gut says too much quality for the Dogs and they improve here by 5-6 goals, but I think I'd like to see them do it first.

Haven't watched the Dogs game just yet, but yeah if the line blows out a bit I could be tempted there I reckon.

 

[Dougz]

Early on i like Melbourne's line (+16.5), definitely played a better brand of footy against Gold coast.

Carlton @2.70 against West Coast also looks good value depending on Carlton's selections, if they decide to go big up forward they'll have a really good chance.

Also for round 3 Fremantle (1.61) vs WCE (2.25) with sportsbet special is good value, Freo should start around 1.30 next week.

 

[X_box_X]

Richmond should beat us comfortably. Not just cause it's at the MCG either.

We're going to be on and off this year, especially in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, you can expect us to simply be off. It's also unlikely we will bring the same sort of intensity into a match two weeks in a row.

 

[apolis]

I like Melbourne against GWS. The game is being played in Canberra too.

Cats out to 1.80 also looks tasty with Sportsbet's special.

 

[angelo44]

I like Melbourne against GWS. The game is being played in Canberra too.

Cats out to 1.80 also looks tasty with Sportsbet's special.

Like melbourne at GWS too

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

Crows line looks nice. No sidebottom big loss for the pies and I cant see them keeping them under 100 points

 

[nobbyiscool]

For the Tigers apologists, I would only remind you that 2 teams play a game - yes, Richmond are better than they seemed on Thursday, but the Bulldogs were hot on Saturday night. I think the odds in this game are crazy, cos the dogs could be anything over the first half of the season.

Other odds that I like/don't understand/have been subject to overreactions include GWS vs Melbourne - I don't know how Melbourne aren't favourites on R1 form; and Hawthorn vs Essendon - Hawthorn would still be value at half the price.

 

[Sketi]

I can see Tigers creaming the Dogs at the G, they love beating up on lower teams there and the Dogs don't play the ground too well.

Also lol at people talking up Carlton again after last week, their forward line is seriously bad. I'm thinking a possible bottom 4 finish this year. West Coast for mine.

 

[Jugada]

I can see Tigers creaming the Dogs at the G, they love beating up on lower teams there and the Dogs don't play the ground too well.

Also lol at people talking up Carlton again after last week, their forward line is seriously bad. I'm thinking a possible bottom 4 finish this year. West Coast for mine.

If by beating up on lower teams you mean scrapping out a 4 goal win then yes. In there 4 matches against bottom 4 teams at the G last year they went 0-4 at the line and weren't even close to covering once and even dropped a game