2015 - AFL Round 3

[Keystone agony]

Stkilda are value, pies may have no midfield.

I like the tigers, even though they are notoriously bad for playing away i think the lions are really struggling. No Forward or backline and without Hanley and Rockliff through the middle, Aish out of form ect

I also like North to beat Port however will depend on the fitness of Thompson, Hansen, Wells ect

I think Carlton at a 35.5 Line (I think they will drift even more after teams) - Carlton lose Menzel, S.White Essendon gain Fletcher and likely Dempsey 2 best 22 players. So they should drift a little more based on teams. Still question marks over Essendon running at a game, Carlton will come fired out had the media on their back all week, Essendon being able to kick/score enough struggled last year and have struggled so far this year still. Also Essendon have been great out of the blocks but so have Carlton if they can somehow be able to keep that even after the 1st quarter or the first half then they should run out the game better then the dons still IMO.

I think Essendon should prevail with teams on paper but not sure they can win by 6-7 goals or more.

 

[GROTTO]

I also like North to beat Port however will depend on the fitness of Thompson, Hansen, Wells ect

Dal Santo out, if Wells and Thompson also miss as well coupled with Lobbe returning expect an avalanche of money on the Power. I do like the Power this week.

 

[Keystone agony]

Dal Santo out, if Wells and Thompson also miss as well coupled with Lobbe returning expect an avalanche of money on the Power. I do like the Power this week.

Yeh ill wait for teams. Could easily be Wells, Thompson named and Lobbe not.

 

[GROTTO]

Yeah i highly doubt it but as far as "dangers" for this bet goes i would say thats one of them.

Your biggest dangers for your bet in order are - Saints, Freo and Geelong.

Crows wont be ambushed like last year against the Demons. If it was against the Dogs at the Dome, you would have solid case.

 

[HG247]

Crows wont lose to the Demons. Back to back interstate away games is a factor to consider. I cant recall many Victorian Clubs having to undertake this and winning in their second away week. It would be interesting to know the stats on this.

Melbourne clubs playing "Away" (Interstate) in their 2nd consecutive week for the last 3 seasons

H2H 1-9 (11.11%)
Line 2-8 (25%)

Including Hawthorn's "Home" games in Launceston

H2H 3-10 (30%)
Line 3-10 (30%)

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Crows wont be ambushed like last year against the Demons. If it was against the Dogs at the Dome, you would have solid case.

Adelaide oval is our home ground excuse me.

Beat you there last year and should have beaten Port as well.

$9 = money for jam

 

[DerpWerls]

I've taken Essendon -33.5 and Richmond -14.5 (singles) each at $1.92

 

[I Lost My Keays]

St Kilda H2H @$3

If your team wins any quarter and loses you get money back.

Also Pendlebury and Adams might be out

 

[BILC]

Stkilda are value, pies may have no midfield.

I like the tigers, even though they are notoriously bad for playing away i think the lions are really struggling. No Forward or backline and without Hanley and Rockliff through the middle, Aish out of form ect

I also like North to beat Port however will depend on the fitness of Thompson, Hansen, Wells ect

I think Carlton at a 35.5 Line (I think they will drift even more after teams) - Carlton lose Menzel, S.White Essendon gain Fletcher and likely Dempsey 2 best 22 players. So they should drift a little more based on teams. Still question marks over Essendon running at a game, Carlton will come fired out had the media on their back all week, Essendon being able to kick/score enough struggled last year and have struggled so far this year still. Also Essendon have been great out of the blocks but so have Carlton if they can somehow be able to keep that even after the 1st quarter or the first half then they should run out the game better then the dons still IMO.

I think Essendon should prevail with teams on paper but not sure they can win by 6-7 goals or more.

We've been really good away recently? Probably better than in Melbourne!

Haven't lost at the Gabba since the mid 2000's.

 

[BILC]

St Kilda H2H @$3

If your team wins any quarter and loses you get money back.

Also Pendlebury and Adams might be out

Leads at any break, not wins any quarter.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Leads at any break, not wins any quarter.

Cheers

Still backing them in

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Does anyone think that Richmond's line is too low?

 

[GROTTO]

Anyone participating in Last Man Standing on here?

There is "only" ~400 left.

 

[TheKanga]

Limited funds for punting atm just a couple small multis

Carlton (+33.5)
Port (-5.5)
Gold Coast (+36.5)

$10 @ 8's

Collingwood 1-39
Essendon 1-39
Melbourne (+44.5)
Sydney 40+
Port (-5.5)
Richmond 1-39
Hawthorn 40+
Gold Coast (+36.5)
Fremantle (-20.5)

$1 @ 400's

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

How could anyone bet on Carlton at the moment? They're midfield got dominated by the worst midfield in the competition.

Essendon just beat the Hawks

 

[samFFC]

Line / total multis:

Last week: 4/9

Yup.

Line/Game total tips from last week

Having another go this week, some TBD:
Carlton +11.5 under 159.5
WB +20.5 under 178.5
Melbourne +15.5 under 169.5
Collingwood +13.5 over 182.5
Gold Coast -33.5 under 176.5
Sydney +5.5 under 173.5
Fremantle -3.5 under 165.5
Hawthorn -30.5 over 181.5
North Melbourne -35.5 over 181.5

In particular, will wait and see on PA/Sydney (might go Port if the weather looks greasy), and similar for GC/Hawthorn if weather not looking great.

Changed to Essendon +30.5 on game day, good decision! But also changed to Brisbane +37.5, bugger!

Inn terms of lines picked 4, and hit the total on all of them! Also picked total in NM/BL and the GWS/Melb games, so 6/9 for that pretty good.

For this week, for first 3 games going:

St Kilda +17.5 over 167.5
Essendon -30.5 under 173.5
Melbourne +47.5 under 174.5

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

1U - Armitage > Steven (SC) @ $2.00

 

[SpecialComments]

I like Carlton at a plus line, I reckon they will come out tomorrow and show something. Essendon on a massive high after last weeks win.

St Kilda tonight, definitely think is good value at $3.05

Gold Coast to get within 6 goals of Geelong.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I'm sorry but I don't know how you can touch Carlton at the moment. Essendon just beat Hawthorn and Carlton lost to a team riddled with injuries by a big margin.

 

[Anzac16]

I was away last week and busy for quite a bit of this week so sorry for the late write up.

Collingwood vs St.Kilda @ MCG

One of the most interesting games for the round for my mind. I think the Saints have shown plenty in the last 2 weeks and have found some great players for the future. Question is how long they can sustain this form for? Last year they won their first 2 games of the season before dropping right off apart from a massive win over the Dockers. I think they are a huge chance for this game even with Pendlebury playing due to some of the key matchups as a part of the game. Their defense has been okay so far and Bruce up forward supporting Riewoldt has proven one of the moves of the year so far. Midfield wise they've got a good young core that have won them enough of the ball so far. Armitage is finally looming as hitting the potential everyone knew he had, whilst guys like Steven and Dunstan are constantly improving. Mav Weller has also continued his form as a tagger, so expect him to really take it to Pendles if he plays. Otherwise he will surely play on Swan. I'm tipping the Saints in this game in a very close, scrappy game. If Riewoldt is late out though then I would expect the Pies to take the chocolates.

Adelaide vs Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval

The Dees managed to beat the Crows in the respective game last year, but surely they can't do it two years in a row? They've played 6 quarters of very good footy so far this year, before dropping right back to the old Melbourne we know against GWS in the second half. Crows on the other hand have smashed North at home and had a pretty convincing win over the Pies. They've been playing with a confidence that I haven't seen since 2012 and I can't see that dropping off this week. Scott Thompson comes back into the team to bolster their midfield whilst young Jake Kelly gets a crack with Cheney's injury. Viney is a huge loss for the Demons given his shutdown roles on players whilst he's been managing to find a fair bit of the footy himself. Crows should be able to beat them pretty comfortably at home. If the Demons can recreate some of the form they had in Round 1 then they could keep it a bit closer. The line is starting to slip out quite a bit, so Demons at the line could be the play here.

Carlton vs Essendon @ MCG

Two pretty contrasting form lines between these two so far this year. Essendon will be full of confidence after last week whilst Carlton have finally admitted they are in a rebuild phase. Plenty of changes for the Blues this week and their might be more to come before the bounce as well. Not sure whether we can compete to well with Essendon at the moment with a lot of our key players massively out of form. If they can manage to find some form Carlton could keep it closer, but I even though it pains me to say it, Essendon at the line is probably the correct play here.

Sydney vs GWS @ SCG

Earlier in the week I was very keen on GWS. Their line has started to move in which has been a bit disappointing. Swans looked amazing last week against a very average Port side team, and their pressure was terrific. GWS came out after HT to completely demolish the Demons and started to show that improvement that most people were expecting this year. Honestly I'm having a really hard time calling which way this game will go right now. If GWS can keep that form up from late last week then the Swans will have a real game on their hands. But on the other hand if the Swans can apply that same pressure as last week they will be able to more than likely get the win. GWS do match up quite well against the Swans, but Buddy could very well get away from them.

Brisbane vs Richmond @ GABBA

Not sure how this line is still so small at the moment. Tigers have looked pretty bad for the first 2 weeks but the Lions have been pretty unlucky with injuries to important players to start off the year. Tigers in my eyes are the better team easily on paper in this game and they will be spewing after the crap they dished up last week. Lions will want to also bounce back after that dismal performance against North last week, but I just can't see them being able to run with the Tigers who they haven't actually been able to beat in a very long time. Think the bookies are reading too much into the Brisbane/Collingwood game in R1 and the final margin there. Fact is that Collingwood smashed them for 3 quarters before easing off in the last.

North vs Port @ Etihad

This game should be an absolute beauty with a very close scoreline. North have the form running into this match after a very convincing win last week, whilst Port are building after a slow start to the year. Dal Santo is a big loss for the Roos but Bastinac does come in which isn't the worst replacement in the world. Cornes being rested is very odd for my mind given how big this game is for the Power, and the Power have named a couple of interesting selections. I think North win this game personally, just due to their form coming into the match plus the bonus of a home ground advantage. But it is a very hard game to call exactly.

Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs @ Aurora

Gibson and Mitchell come back after being rested last week. Frawley is a massive out as it means that Gibson will more than likely play a key position role again for the Hawks. Coming off a pretty average game last week I'd expect we will see some of more classic Hawthorn ball use this week. Bulldogs are not without a shot in this match though given how they have started this year. I quite like the team they are putting on the park at the moment and they've got a lot of talent in every part of the ground. With the line starting to slip out past 50 points my most likely play will be the Dogs at the line for this game. They've got enough talent to keep it within that in my eyes.

Geelong vs Gold Coast @ Simonds

Geelong haven't really got going so far this year but I expect they will come out this week ready to go. Gold Coast have looked nothing short of s**t under the Rodney Eade tenure so far and it's not looking any brighter with Ablett out for a while again now. Geelong at Simonds have been fairly unbeatable in years gone although they were smashed their last week by Freo. I can't really write too much more on this game as I almost certainly won't be touching any bets for the game as both teams have some huge question marks surrounding them.

West Coast vs Fremantle @ Domain Stadium

Fremantle look set for a huge run at another Grand Final so far this year and they will be wanting to smash their cross town rivals. I actually think the Eagles match up okay on Freo even with the injures that they've had, but I can't see the winning this game. They did look quite good last week against Carlton, but I think that was more a case of Carlton just being absolute garbage. Fremantle on the other hand have beaten 2 other top 8 quality teams. My lean would be Fremantle line for this game, but given its a derby it could be a lot tighter.

 

[ALL IN]

I like Carlton at a plus line, I reckon they will come out tomorrow and show something. Essendon on a massive high after last weeks win.

St Kilda tonight, definitely think is good value at $3.05

Gold Coast to get within 6 goals of Geelong.

Im sorry but please save your money.
Carton will come out and play one quarter just like the last two weeks but will be overrun and outclassed by the Bombers. James Hird has got the Bombers heads where they need to be and they are simply just leagues above Carlton on every level. Essendon's pressure and spread is far superior to WCE & we saw what happened last week. The Essendon back line will monster Carlton's forwards with they're limited entries.
St Kilda does look like value but are paying $3 for a reason. Remember they still lost to Giants in round 1. Collingwood aren't playing nearly as bad as everyone is making out and Saints can't run out a full game. Sportsbet cash back special could be handy here as your obviously looking to gamble.
Seriously though, tell me how you think Gold Coast will get close to even 10 goals vs Geelong at Simonds stadium? Theres not enough room in this forum to list the reasons why Geelong will splatter the Suns hopes of any finals in 2015 beyond oblivion.
You've picked 3 of the worst teams in the AFL to bet your hard earned money on with no reason other than they should show something after being so poor. Bad Idea in my opinion.

 

[SpecialComments]

Im sorry but please save your money.
Carton will come out and play one quarter just like the last two weeks but will be overrun and outclassed by the Bombers. James Hird has got the Bombers heads where they need to be and they are simply just leagues above Carlton on every level. Essendon's pressure and spread is far superior to WCE & we saw what happened last week. The Essendon back line will monster Carlton's forwards with they're limited entries.
St Kilda does look like value but are paying $3 for a reason. Remember they still lost to Giants in round 1. Collingwood aren't playing nearly as bad as everyone is making out and Saints can't run out a full game. Sportsbet cash back special could be handy here as your obviously looking to gamble.
Seriously though, tell me how you think Gold Coast will get close to even 10 goals vs Geelong at Simonds stadium? Theres not enough room in this forum to list the reasons why Geelong will splatter the Suns hopes of any finals in 2015 beyond oblivion.
You've picked 3 of the worst teams in the AFL to bet your hard earned money on with no reason other than they should show something after being so poor. Bad Idea in my opinion.

2 posts you've had in your big footy career. Listen up kiddo, we'll see who is right near the end of Round 3. Quite a few other posters are along the same lines too.

 

[Smiling Buddha]

Coll vs St.K: Could see a St.K win. Decent value.
Carl vs Ess: Essendon easy but not enough value for H2H.
Adel vs Melb: Crows easy but not enough value for H2H.
Syd vs GWS: $6+ is tempting in a two-horse race...
North vs Port: Value bet of the round. North are pretenders but this is exactly the sort of match/venue Scott has built them for. Load up on the Roos.
Bris vs Rich. Tigers are diabolically bad. Putrid. But Brisbane are hopeless. No bet.
Haw vs Footscray: Dogs would be worth a cheeky nibble if Hawthorn wasn't coming off a loss.
Geel vs: GCS: If the Suns win this I will eat my hat. Geel line (-39) worth a look.
WCE vs Freo: Freo the better team but derbies throw up some odd games. No bet.

Final bets:
-St. K win. 5U @ $2.85. (Ladbrokes score first goal but lose = money back).
-Waite to kick 3 or more goals and North win. 10 units @ $3.50.
-Footscray +47.5 @ $1.92. $25 free bet.

($100 initial season bankroll, each unit = $1)

 

[BloodRet]

Thought I'd let yas know that madbookie are offering a 20 buck free bet on the afl upon sign up. No deposit required. Chucked it on carlton

 

[BloodRet]

Coll vs St.K: Could see a St.K win. Decent value.
Carl vs Ess: Essendon easy but not enough value for H2H.
Adel vs Melb: Crows easy but not enough value for H2H.
Syd vs GWS: $6+ is tempting in a two-horse race...
North vs Port: Value bet of the round. North are pretenders but this is exactly the sort of match/venue Scott has built them for. Load up on the Roos.
Bris vs Rich. Tigers are diabolically bad. Putrid. But Brisbane are hopeless. No bet.
Haw vs Footscray: Dogs would be worth a cheeky nibble if Hawthorn wasn't coming off a loss.
Geel vs: GCS: If the Suns win this I will eat my hat. Geel line (-39) worth a look.
WCE vs Freo: Freo the better team but derbies throw up some odd games. No bet.

Final bets:
-St. K win. 5U @ $2.85. (Ladbrokes score first goal but lose = money back).
-Waite to kick 3 or more goals and North win. 10 units @ $3.50.
-Footscray +47.5 @ $1.92. $25 free bet.

($100 initial season bankroll, each unit = $1)

I thought units are meant to be 5% of your initial bankroll so in your case 5 bux