2015 Brownlow

[GROTTO]

2nd last round that North match then, clear BOG, not a vote IIRC.

This is true as well, apparently this game was even worse than the final round game where he didnt get a vote.

 

[Vic Vinegar]

Reckon Danger (Charlie)/Kennedy (Coleman) double at 48/1 right now might be worth a dabble.

 

[Jugada]

lol subjective or not the brownlow post season is one of the easiest things to make money from. The bookies have to make judgement calls on hundreds of subjective markets so there are sure to be mistakes made

 

[Zealbee]

lol subjective or not the brownlow post season is one of the easiest things to make money from. The bookies have to make judgement calls on hundreds of subjective markets so there are sure to be mistakes made

Yeah both parties are simply guessing.

 

[Jugada]

Yeah both parties are simply guessing.

Maybe you guess, i do a bit of work. Watching matches, polling history, key stats etc. Its not as if the umpires just put close their eyes and point at the team lists to come up. Sure you will get a few random results in there but overall its easier to make a profit than most things

There are subjective decisions made by umpires during actual matches every minute anyway. Then there is SuperCoach betting which is entirely subjective as well which is quite popular here with people making good money from it

 

[GROTTO]

Maybe you guess, i do a bit of work.

So did you pick Priddis last year, as he was clear winner by 4 votes?

I do agree with you that in some markets of the Brownlow you could do well in, but overall I have learnt my lesson from it from past years.

 

[Jugada]

So did you pick Priddis last year, as he was clear winner by 4 votes?

I do agree with you that in some markets of the Brownlow you could do well in, but overall I have learnt my lesson from it from past years.

No, did you pick St Kilda to win this week as they were clear by 5 goals? Picking out one result to prove a point does nothing

I did have Priddis finishing top 5 though so it was no huge surprise. Anyway i would say 1% of my bets (if that) are on the actual winner market, there are so many better options out there. Maybe you should change your strategy then? I know many people who do lots of work and make money consistently every year on the brownlow so its not the market that is the problem

 

[Zealbee]

Maybe you guess, i do a bit of work. Watching matches, polling history, key stats etc. Its not as if the umpires just put close their eyes and point at the team lists to come up. Sure you will get a few random results in there but overall its easier to make a profit than most things

There are subjective decisions made by umpires during actual matches every minute anyway. Then there is SuperCoach betting which is entirely subjective as well which is quite popular here with people making good money from it

But then by your reasoning it should be possible to make money off SuperCoach since the bookies have the same problem (not that I bet on it).

 

[Jugada]

But then by your reasoning it should be possible to make money off SuperCoach since the bookies have the same problem (not that I bet on it).

It is possible which is why i said there are people here making good money from it

 

[Zealbee]

It is possible which is why i said there are people here making good money from it

My bad, at work and had to skim read.

 

[GROTTO]

No, did you pick St Kilda to win this week as they were clear by 5 goals? Picking out one result to prove a point does nothing

I did have Priddis finishing top 5 though so it was no huge surprise. Anyway i would say 1% of my bets (if that) are on the actual winner market, there are so many better options out there. Maybe you should change your strategy then? I know many people who do lots of work and make money consistently every year on the brownlow so its not the market that is the problem

Im not having a shot at you. Just that I do feel the Brownlow is more subjective than most AFL games thats a personal opinion. With that said, proof is your ROI on the Brownlow. If you are doing well I have no reason to doubt you and well done. I do agree if you are making money it is from investing a lot of hard work in to it and kudos to you.

The Priddis remark was not meant to be directed at you per se just that that result had blindsided almost all punters. The Saints result was just one game and one result. Priddis managed to poll votes in a number of games where almost all punters did not see him coming, how did this manage to happen over the course of an entire season?

 

[Jugada]

Im not having a shot at you. Just that I do feel the Brownlow is more subjective than most AFL games thats a personal opinion. With that said, proof is your ROI on the Brownlow. If you are doing well I have no reason to doubt you and well done. I do agree if you are making money it is from investing a lot of hard work in to it and kudos to you.

The Priddis remark was not meant to be directed at you per se just that that result had blindsided almost all punters. The Saints result was just one game and one result. Priddis managed to poll votes in a number of games where almost all punters did not see him coming, how did this manage to happen over the course of an entire season?

I had him on 23 votes so all he did was turn a couple 1s into 2s or 2s into 3s for me. Its not as if he was down for 6 votes and surprised week after week with his votes. Given he is an umpires favourite and polled extremely well in the past its not really that much of a surprise. A mate of mine who does his own count had a grand on him to win too so from my perspective it wasnt that big of a shock result when it happened. Some of the others around him underpolled by a few votes for me too so the margin blew out but his count was not far off the mark

 

[Oraaaaazio]

But then who receives the votes is completely subjective and is just an opinion you and others have come up with, there is no way of knowing one way or another who the umpires liked in a game. That's my issue with it. All credit to you if you do well out of it but I would rather stick to something where the outcome wasn't subjective and decided by someone's opinion.

Fair enough, each to their own. I keep track of each game throughout the season. I don't do 3,2,1 but have a system of sorts... Of course there's some luck involved but the bookies often get it horribly wrong on markets that they're making up with players that they don't see polling many votes - team votes, groups etc. Most of the money to be made is on those sort of bets. Probably not worth the time I put in to it at the end of the day but it's a bit of fun and if I make me and my mates some money out of it then why not

 

[HG247]

Round 1

Carlton defeated by Richmond
3-2-1
3. K Macintosh*
2. B Ellis
1. T Hunt
Spread
2. K Macintosh*
1.5 B Ellis
1 T Hunt
0.5 C Judd
0.5 S Docherty

Melbourne defeats Gold Coast
3-2-1
3. T McDonald
2. N Jones
1. D Prestia
Spread
2. T McDonald
2. N Jones
0.5 D Prestia
0.5 J Howe
0.5 T Viney
0.5 J Garlett

Sydney defeats Essendon
3-2-1
3. J Kennedy
2. L Parker
1. D Hannebery
Spread
1.5 J Kennedy
1.5 L Parker
1. D Hannebery
1. K Jack
0.5 D Heppell
0.5 J Watson

Brisbane defeated by Collingwood
3-2-1
3. D Swan
2. D Rich
1. S Pendlebury
Spread
2. D Swan
1.5 D Rich
1. S Pendlebury
1. S Sidebottom
0.5 D Beams

Western Bulldogs defeat West Coast
3-2-1
3. M Boyd
2. J Macrae
1. M Bontempelli
Spread
1.5 M Boyd
1.5 J Macrae
1.5 M Bontempelli
0.5 J Cripps
0.5 L Dahlhaus
0.5 J McGovern

St Kilda defeated by GWS
3-2-1
3. A Treloar
2. D Shiel
1. L Whitfield
Spread
2.5 A Treloar
2. D Shiel
1. L Whitfield
0.5 J Steven

Adelaide defeats North Melbourne
3-2-1
3. T Walker
2. P Dangerfield
1. R Sloane
Spread
2.5 T Walker
1.5 P Dangerfield
1.5 R Sloane
0.5 E Betts

Fremantle defeats Port Adelaide
3-2-1
3. N Fyfe
2. D Pearce
1. O Wines
Spread
2. N Fyfe
2. D Pearce
0.5 O Wines
0.5 B Ebert
0.5 M Pavlich
0.5 D Mundy

Hawthorn defeats Geelong
3-2-1
3. J Lewis
2. L Hodge
1. L Breust
Spread
3. J Lewis
1. L Hodge
1. L Breust
0.5 S Mitchell
0.5 S Burgoyne

 

[HG247]

Round 2

West Coast defeats Carlton
3-2-1
3. J Kennedy
2. M Priddis
1. L Shuey
Spread
3. J Kennedy
2. M Priddis
0.5 L Shuey
0.5 A Gaff

Richmond defeated by Western Bulldogs
3-2-1
3. M Bontempelli
2. A Rance
1. M Wallis
Spread
3. M Bontempelli
1. A Rance
1. M Wallis
1. D Martin

GWS defeats Melbourne
3-2-1
3. D Shiel
2. S Coniglio
1. J Kelly
Spread
2. D Shiel
1.5 S Coniglio
1 J Kelly
0.5 C Ward
0.5 S Mumford
0.5 T McDonald

Collingwood defeated by Adelaide
3-2-1
3. P Dangerfield
2. B Smith
1. R Sloane
Spread
2. P Dangerfield
2. B Smith
1.5. R Sloane
0.5 S Jacobs

Port Adelaide defeated by Sydney
3-2-1
3. J Kennedy
2. K Jack
1. L Franklin
Spread
3. J Kennedy
1.5 K Jack
1.5 L Franklin

Gold Coast defeated by St Kilda
3-2-1
3. D Armitage
2. J Bruce
1. M Richitelli
Spread
2.5 D Armitage
2.5 J Bruce
0.5 M Rischitelli
0.5 L Dunstan

Geelong defeated by Fremantle
3-2-1
3. N Fyfe
2. D Mundy
1. M Barlow
Spread
2.5 N Fyfe
2.5 D Mundy
0.5 M Barlow
0.5 S Hill

Essendon defeats Hawthorn
3-2-1
3. J Watson
2. D Heppell
1. J Lewis
Spread
2. J Watson
2. D Heppell
0.5 J Lewis
0.5 J Gunston

North Melbourne defeats Brisbane
3-2-1
3. T Goldstein
2. J Waite
1. J Ziebell
Spread
2. T Goldstein
2. J Waite
2. J Ziebell

 

[X_box_X]

I backed Andrew McLeod for a decent wager pre season one year at 28-1, started the night at $1.90 i think. Came second.

Never again.

In that situation, you have the opportunity to hedge by laying him at those odds of $1.90. I wouldn't be so naïve about the Brownlow. Personally it has been very profitable for me. As widowlicker stated, it's the only event you can bet on where the winner is predetermined. That's assuming you're placing your bet after the final round.

If you investigate different books, you will often find fixed odds at a higher pricer than the betfair lay price, and that's even with the lay price being more than you would get if there was more exposure. I.E. Last year Priddis was at $20 after round 19 with TAB. Betfair lay price was at $13.

TAB also had Fyfe at $3 to outpoll Ablett last year on the day of the count. Other books rated both at $1.90 in head to head. There's plenty of other examples that I can't be bothered posting, but to suggest it's the worst thing to bet on is a ridiculous statement, especially because I think it's the best thing to bet on due to the free money to be made and the entertainment value.

 

[Zealbee]

Round 2

West Coast defeats Carlton
3-2-1
3. J Kennedy
2. M Priddis
1. L Shuey
Spread
3. J Kennedy
2. M Priddis
0.5 L Shuey
0.5 A Gaff

Richmond defeated by Western Bulldogs
3-2-1
3. M Bontempelli
2. A Rance
1. M Wallis
Spread
3. M Bontempelli
1. A Rance
1. M Wallis
1. D Martin

GWS defeats Melbourne
3-2-1
3. D Shiel
2. S Coniglio
1. J Kelly
Spread
2. D Shiel
1.5 S Coniglio
1 J Kelly
0.5 C Ward
0.5 S Mumford
0.5 T McDonald

Collingwood defeated by Adelaide
3-2-1
3. P Dangerfield
2. B Smith
1. R Sloane
Spread
2. P Dangerfield
2. B Smith
1.5. R Sloane
0.5 S Jacobs

Port Adelaide defeated by Sydney
3-2-1
3. J Kennedy
2. K Jack
1. L Franklin
Spread
3. J Kennedy
1.5 K Jack
1.5 L Franklin

Gold Coast defeated by St Kilda
3-2-1
3. D Armitage
2. J Bruce
1. M Richitelli
Spread
2.5 D Armitage
2.5 J Bruce
0.5 M Rischitelli
0.5 L Dunstan

Geelong defeated by Fremantle
3-2-1
3. N Fyfe
2. D Mundy
1. M Barlow
Spread
2.5 N Fyfe
2.5 D Mundy
0.5 M Barlow
0.5 S Hill

Essendon defeats Hawthorn
3-2-1
3. J Watson
2. D Heppell
1. J Lewis
Spread
2. J Watson
2. D Heppell
0.5 J Lewis
0.5 J Gunston

North Melbourne defeats Brisbane
3-2-1
3. T Goldstein
2. J Waite
1. J Ziebell
Spread
2. T Goldstein
2. J Waite
2. J Ziebell

I agree with all of these. This your own count? Do you use what media outlets have voted for as a reference or is it just who you think?

 

[HG247]

I agree with all of these. This your own count? Do you use what media outlets have voted for as a reference or is it just who you think?

Yeah my count. I watch most games but i use other media outlets and stats to fill in the blanks

 

[Lion of Panjshir]

Nice work, HG247.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Have done votes in here the last few years, will do so again as long as time permits. last few years have been pretty successful with my votes, heres hoping it continues

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 1

CARL v RICH
3 B Ellis (Rich)
2 K McIntosh (Rich)
1 T Hunt (Rich)

MELB v GC
3 T McDonald (Melb)
2 D Prestia (GC)
1 J Garlett (Melb)

SYD v ESS
3 D Heppell (Ess)
2 L Parker (Syd)
1 J Melksham (Ess)

BRIS v COLL
3 D Swan (Coll)
2 D Rich (Bris)
1 S Pendlebury (Coll)

WB v WCE
3 J Macrae (WB)
2 J Stringer (WB)
1 J McGovern (WCE)

ST K v GWS
3 A Treloar (GWS)
2 J Steven (St K)
1 L Whitfield (GWS)

ADEL v NM
3 T Walker (Adel)
2 R Sloane (Adel)
1 P Dangerfield (Adel)

FREO v PA
3 N Fyfe (Freo)
2 D Mundy (Freo)
1 O Wines (PA)

HAW v GEEL
3 J Lewis (Haw)
2 L Hodge (Haw)
1 S Motlop (Geel)

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 2

WCE v CARL
3 J Kennedy (WCE)
2 M Priddis (WCE)
1 L Shuey (WCE)

RICH v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 T Cotchin (Rich)
1 T Dickson (WB)

GWS v MELB
3 S Coniglio (GWS)
2 C Ward (GWS)
1 D Shiel (GWS)

COLL v ADEL
3 P Dangerfield (Adel)
2 B Smith (Adel)
1 S Jacobs (Adel)

PA v SYD
3 J Kennedy (Syd)
2 L Franklin (Syd)
1 D Hannebery (Syd)

GC v ST K
3 J Bruce (St K)
2 D Armitage (St K)
1 M Rischitelli (GC)

GEEL v FREO
3 N Fyfe (Freo)
2 D Mundy (Freo)
1 M Barlow (Freo)

ESS v HAW
3 J Watson (Ess)
2 D Heppell (Ess)
1 L Hodge (Haw)

NM v BRIS
3 J Waite (NM)
2 T Goldstein (NM)
1 S Gibson (NM)


LEADERBOARD
6 – N Fyfe (Freo)
5 – D Heppell (Ess)
4 – D Mundy (Freo), P Dangerfield (Adel)

 

[HG247]

Collingwood vs St Kilda

3-2-1
3. D Swan
2. J Elliott
1. S Pendlebury

Spread
3. D Swan
1.5. J Elliott
1 S Pendlebury
0.5 B Grundy

Adelaide vs Melbourne

3-2-1
3. R Sloane
2. S Thompson
1. D MacKay

Spread
3. R Sloane
1.5 S Thompson
1. D MacKay
0.5 N Jones

Carlton vs Essendon

3-2-1
3. J Watson
2. D Heppell
1. M Murphy

Spread
3. J Watson
1.5 D Heppell
1. M Murphy
0.5 C Hooker

Sydney vs GWS

3-2-1
3. D Hannebery
2. L Franklin
1. L Whitfield

Spread
3. D Hannebery
1.5 L Franklin
1. L Whitfield
0.25 I Heeney
0.25 D Smith

North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide

3-2-1
3. M Broadbent
2. L Thomas
1. A Swallow

Spread
1.5 M Broadbent
1.5 L Thomas
1.5 A Swallow
1. B Ebert
0.5 J Schulz

Brisbane vs Richmond

3-2-1
3. T Cotchin
2. B Houli
1. D Martin

Spread
3. T Cotchin
1.5 B Houli
0.5 D Martin
0.5 A Miles
0.5 D Beams

Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs

3-2-1
3. L Hodge
2. J Lewis
1. J Roughead

Spread
3. L Hodge
1.5 J Lewis
1.5 J Roughead

West Coast vs Fremantle

3-2-1
3. L Neale
2. S Hill
1. N Fyfe

Spread
3. L Neale
2. S Hill
0.5 N Fyfe
0.5 D Pearce

Geelong vs Gold Coast

3-2-1
3. J Selwood
2. J Martin
1. M Rischitelli

Spread
3. J Selwood
1. J Martin
1. M Rischitelli
0.5 J Kelly
0.5 D Prestia

 

[Lion of Panjshir]

Sloane at 50s is a good bet. (sportsbet.com.au)

 

[X_box_X]

Sloane at 50s is a good bet. (sportsbet.com.au)

You're gonna be on a massive Sloaner if he wins.

Seriously, though, I like it.

He has that similar sort of flowing hair like Cooney and Priddis that should attract votes. Plus he's a top player who has started very well.

As a real smokey, another player I don't mind is Ebert. He hasn't polled well in the past, which is a small concern. But he has started the season very well. I got on him at $100 for top three and $50 for top five.