2015 Draft Discussion

[BigCat2]

This is no longer the case.

Suns won't be picking Schache, I don't believe.

Skippos, is it a gut feel or have you heard whispers?

 

[Skippos]

Skippos, is it a gut feel or have you heard whispers?

More than a gut feel. Won't elaborate more than that - and if my mail changes I'll pass that on.

At this stage I suspect GC will be targetting high character individuals with leadership. I'd expect them to look at blokes like Clark, Weitering, Snelling etc. More in the Touk Miller mold. Schache isn't a bad kid but he's not someone who you can build a culture around.

 

[Fitzroy bears]

I can see that there are some, like yourself and Cotter who have the perception that we are a couple of players away. I am not one of those, call me jaded but I just don't see it with that crop of players. It would actually be nice to make the finals and then it is another thing to be competitive and then another level to win a premiership.

I think your right, of all the players that they have listed, most of them are second round picks or later and you wont win a premiership or even challenge for one with a bunch of second round picks now this is not to say those players wont develope into solid players, but they dont have the class needed. We have been down the bottom for awhile now, but as we all know the class we have gotten in has been stolen from us and replaced with second round picks. We still have a chance to move up the ladder and challenge, but we cant keep trading out first round picks. We have to develope those players we do have and upgrade them through the trade period whilst using free agency to our advantage, one piece at a time. Dont think dixon will bring us from outside the 8 to top 4 even if you add another key back.

 

[cotter101]

More than a gut feel. Won't elaborate more than that - and if my mail changes I'll pass that on.

At this stage I suspect GC will be targetting high character individuals with leadership. I'd expect them to look at blokes like Clark, Weitering, Snelling etc. More in the Touk Miller mold. Schache isn't a bad kid but he's not someone who you can build a culture around.

I find that pretty interesting actually. Haven't heard anything myself, but Schache is certainly what I'd call a high character individual that has some leadership ability going forward.

 

[jjami15]

More than a gut feel. Won't elaborate more than that - and if my mail changes I'll pass that on.

At this stage I suspect GC will be targetting high character individuals with leadership. I'd expect them to look at blokes like Clark, Weitering, Snelling etc. More in the Touk Miller mold. Schache isn't a bad kid but he's not someone who you can build a culture around.

With everything that is happening down the road I had a query about this a few pages back and did also mention that I know nothing about Schache but everything you hear about Weitering is A+ in regards to his character plus he's only a seventeen year old. Young man with an old head on his shoulders one might say.

 

[Viceregal]

With everything that is happening down the road I had a query about this a few pages back and did also mention that I know nothing about Schache but everything you hear about Weitering is A+ in regards to his character plus he's only a seventeen year old. Young man with an old head on his shoulders one might say.

What is his loyalty index score?

 

[Brettles]

Callum Twomey has rated Keays and Hipwood 14th and 15th respectively in his "Phantom form guide" here:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-07-03/2015-draft-phantom-form-guide

I really hope we can get both the boys to our side along with Schache (rated 2).

I haven't really reviewed the new drafting rules in great detail yet but I do hope we can make this happen!

 

[dlanod]

Callum Twomey has rated Keays and Hipwood 14th and 15th respectively in his "Phantom form guide" here:
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-07-03/2015-draft-phantom-form-guide

I really hope we can get both the boys to our side along with Schache (rated 2).

I haven't really reviewed the new drafting rules in great detail yet but I do hope we can make this happen!

We'll be able to take them both, although it may drop our first round pick back a bit next year. However if that's what Keays and Hipwood are bid on as (incredibly unlikely this far out), we'd only need the equivalent of pick 52 on top of our current draft picks to not go into debt next year.

 

[Brettles]

We'll be able to take them both, although it may drop our first round pick back a bit next year. However if that's what Keays and Hipwood are bid on as (incredibly unlikely this far out), we'd only need the equivalent of pick 52 on top of our current draft picks to not go into debt next year.

Phew, that's a relief as they both look like great prospects!

Sounds like you're right across it dlanod - thanks for the information

 

[Fatcat08]

We'll be able to take them both, although it may drop our first round pick back a bit next year. However if that's what Keays and Hipwood are bid on as (incredibly unlikely this far out), we'd only need the equivalent of pick 52 on top of our current draft picks to not go into debt next year.

How does teams moving up and down orders to take academy players affect the value of our second and third round picks. Do we retain the value of our picks at the start of draft night or do they fluctuate as pics are surrendered and people move around?

 

[dlanod]

How does teams moving up and down orders to take academy players affect the value of our second and third round picks. Do we retain the value of our picks at the start of draft night or do they fluctuate as pics are surrendered and people move around?

They fluctuate, as do the value of the picks bidding on it. To use the picks 14 and 15 as an example, that would only be the case if the same team bid on both our players - whoever had pick 14 would bid on Keays. We match and end up with pick 14, and everyone else shuffles down one until our next pick, at which point they'd be unchanged, and if we used multiple picks everyone after the second pick are all bumped up one, etc. The original bidding team now has pick 15, and bids on Hipwood.

 

[Viceregal]

They fluctuate, as do the value of the picks bidding on it. To use the picks 14 and 15 as an example, that would only be the case if the same team bid on both our players - whoever had pick 14 would bid on Keays. We match and end up with pick 14, and everyone else shuffles down one until our next pick, at which point they'd be unchanged, and if we used multiple picks everyone after the second pick are all bumped up one, etc. The original bidding team now has pick 15, and bids on Hipwood.

Next numpty enquiry ...

Does this mean that you could hypothetically have a really really long first round - ie assuming that the first round finishes when the premiers take their '18' if you had say 10 clubs bid on F/S or Academy people during the first round (so effectively Brisbane getting say pick 2 and pick 10 etc) could the '18' end up being '28' and the first found for that year end up being picks 1-28?

 

[Sanchez365]

They fluctuate, as do the value of the picks bidding on it. To use the picks 14 and 15 as an example, that would only be the case if the same team bid on both our players - whoever had pick 14 would bid on Keays. We match and end up with pick 14, and everyone else shuffles down one until our next pick, at which point they'd be unchanged, and if we used multiple picks everyone after the second pick are all bumped up one, etc. The original bidding team now has pick 15, and bids on Hipwood.

Interestingly that seems roughly around where collingwood might finish. And they surely wouldn't be so bitter as to bid on numerous academy players one after the other would they?

 

[dlanod]

Next numpty enquiry ...

Does this mean that you could hypothetically have a really really long first round - ie assuming that the first round finishes when the premiers take their '18' if you had say 10 clubs bid on F/S or Academy people during the first round (so effectively Brisbane getting say pick 2 and pick 10 etc) could the '18' end up being '28' and the first found for that year end up being picks 1-28?

In theory I would guess so.

Interestingly that seems roughly around where collingwood might finish. And they surely wouldn't be so bitter as to bid on numerous academy players one after the other would they?

Depends whether they're a professional club. Hine strikes me as generally rational.

 

[scoman]

I worry about clubs bidding just to force us to use higher picks. However the club who bids must be prepared to take that player. They will have interviewed them and have a genuine need.

History has shown a reluctance to pick Queensland and NSW talent in the first round as the feeling is they haven't played against div one teams at the Champs and any senior football is played at a much lower level. As a result I am expecting clubs to be more inclined to go for guys like Parish, Parington, Balic and Mathison. Also it seems GWS kids Hooper and Kennedy and Sydney's Mills and possible father son Dunkley are also rated higher than Keays. The knock on Keays seems to be his lack of speed and or elite level skills. Recruiters will perhaps feel his potential for improvement is not as high as some of the others?

Anyway I think if clubs bid on either of these two or both in the first round we should take it as a good thing even if it means we miss out on some good value picks in the middle of the draft and have to grab some very speculative picks at the end to fill the list. I think we will have an extra pick or two in the late first round or early second round after the trade period anyway so we should be able to get the three top line players we are after and maybe grab another academy kid or two with our last picks as any bids after 57 (I think) mean you can use your last picks on them.

Also great to see so many of our kids leading Queensland to victory in the Champs!

 

[Fatcat08]

They fluctuate, as do the value of the picks bidding on it. To use the picks 14 and 15 as an example, that would only be the case if the same team bid on both our players - whoever had pick 14 would bid on Keays. We match and end up with pick 14, and everyone else shuffles down one until our next pick, at which point they'd be unchanged, and if we used multiple picks everyone after the second pick are all bumped up one, etc. The original bidding team now has pick 15, and bids on Hipwood.

Possibly good news for us given hopper, mills and Kennedy may require multiple picks therefore our second, third and fourth round pick could move up a fair few places and therefore be a bit higher value which would have some benefit for us when matching points

 

[dlanod]

Possibly good news for us given hopper, mills and Kennedy may require multiple picks therefore our second, third and fourth round pick could move up a fair few places and therefore be a bit higher value which would have some benefit for us when matching points

Additionally, every player nominated before our's potentially knocks the nominating team's pick down one as well (assuming when it comes to draft time a given team is always going to be the one to nominate player X given draft boards and their pick in the draft).

 

[Kevvo]

I worry about clubs bidding just to force us to use higher picks. However the club who bids must be prepared to take that player. They will have interviewed them and have a genuine need.

History has shown a reluctance to pick Queensland and NSW talent in the first round as the feeling is they haven't played against div one teams at the Champs and any senior football is played at a much lower level. As a result I am expecting clubs to be more inclined to go for guys like Parish, Parington, Balic and Mathison. Also it seems GWS kids Hooper and Kennedy and Sydney's Mills and possible father son Dunkley are also rated higher than Keays. The knock on Keays seems to be his lack of speed and or elite level skills. Recruiters will perhaps feel his potential for improvement is not as high as some of the others?

Anyway I think if clubs bid on either of these two or both in the first round we should take it as a good thing even if it means we miss out on some good value picks in the middle of the draft and have to grab some very speculative picks at the end to fill the list. I think we will have an extra pick or two in the late first round or early second round after the trade period anyway so we should be able to get the three top line players we are after and maybe grab another academy kid or two with our last picks as any bids after 57 (I think) mean you can use your last picks on them.

Also great to see so many of our kids leading Queensland to victory in the Champs!

I think these are all reasonable points, but I wonder if the increasing prevalence of academy kids may be changing that? Specifically I'm thinking of:

- Heeney was highly rated despite the uncertainties you mention (lower quality in the NEAFL, Div 2 at national champs) and that translated into some very high quality performances early. No doubt he is a standout, but I wonder if he has shifted the glass ceiling.

- Notwithstanding the overrating of academy kids like Hammelmann on bigfooty, more prominent draft watchers like Callum Twomey haven't tended to have those guys high up on their ratings in the past. This year that seems to be a bit different. Twomey seems to get pretty good mail from the clubs, so I feel some amount of confidence that Keays and Hipwood really are in that conversation.

 

[POBT]

I think the issue has been Qld lads have tended to underperform at the champs in their draft year. When we had a large group of players perform well at the champs (eg 2006) we got a bunch of guys drafted, including 1 (Armitage) in the top 10. This year our under 18s have performed well and, moreover, guys with big reputations going into the champs have solidified their reputations with several good performances at that level. To me, the difference this year to the past couple is that guys with talent are converting that talent to performance when it counts.

 

[chopperduck]

Yeah, there has been some talent but you really had to find it and invest in it. I think there is a better stage for the QLD u18 now as well as better coaching (obviously with academies). To have 2 QLD boys rated in top 20 picks shows the academies work. They can create more talent and solve go home factor for struggling frontier clubs. Watch the AFL screw it up though.

The more academy boys that end up on local lists the more it will spur on the 14yo choose between sports, seeing that there is a pathway to the top here locally.

 

[bearslover1996]

Did anyone record the full Qld Vs Nsw/Act game and would possibly be posting it on youtube?

 

[Len S]

Joining in after enjoying your work, for a few years !The draft for us is complicated by the Aish and Leuenberger situations,as we know.There are three likely standouts available to us to choose if things follow as appears.;Schache, Weitering and Francis. There are then several Q.L.D kids putting hands up. They have all been mentioned, however following a previous enquiry re Reuben William,I can say there was significant non Brisbane interest in him on the two days I attended,and I could see why.

I would also observe that Leppa, inherited a train wreck, in motion,plus the injury list from hell. Next year I would expect an exciting move forward, ,to be followed by finals the following ! When you look, at the lists of sides other than Hawthorn, Collingwood,Western Bulldogs and Port,there are a lot of very top age teams with big list concerns in the near future. Thanks, Hold fast !!

 

[acuguy]

Keays and Hipwood could both go top 10, this will be very interesting. Both boys are the most draftable QLD kids I have seen since Riewoldt.

 

[iBeng]

Joining in after enjoying your work, for a few years !The draft for us is complicated by the Aish and Leuenberger situations,as we know.There are three likely standouts available to us to choose if things follow as appears.;Schache, Weitering and Francis. There are then several Q.L.D kids putting hands up. They have all been mentioned, however following a previous enquiry re Reuben William,I can say there was significant non Brisbane interest in him on the two days I attended,and I could see why.

I would also observe that Leppa, inherited a train wreck, in motion,plus the injury list from hell. Next year I would expect an exciting move forward, ,to be followed by finals the following ! When you look, at the lists of sides other than Hawthorn, Collingwood,Western Bulldogs and Port,there are a lot of very top age teams with big list concerns in the near future. Thanks, Hold fast !!

Solid first post, welcome to Bigfooty to.

Im just excited to have a draft where, potentially, we have no one who'll want to go home in 2, 3, 4 years.

 

[acuguy]

I think Chol will also go top 25 and I would expect Reuben William to not be around by pick 40. Going to be a very exciting QLD draft!