List Mgmt. 2015 Draft Prospects (Poll Added 31/8/15)

[Wizard17]

Pretty sure one of the D&T regulars had him as a second rounder in a mock draft.

I know that there are few who rank him there at the moment but in my own rankings I have him at 40 odd

 

[McCraeBF]

Just say we have pick 11 or 10 in this draft I think we should value add to Gold Coast or some one else.

Imagine if we had picks 19-20-21 for say pick 11 and Talia thinking like this whilst our list is flying would put us ahead of the pack.

Loss:
Pick 11 and Talia
Gain:
19-Burton 192cm Forward
20-Bonner 190cm HBF
21-McKay 200cm CHF

Then with picks
27 Parsons 189 Midfielder
44 Crocker 185cm forward onballer

Off list
Fuller
Talia-Trade
Minson-Trade
Prudent-Trade
Darley-Trade


Thoughts??

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Just a general drafting question, but is it a trend that players who can't win their own ball are often rated lower by club recruiters than those on big footy? Second I recall with Macca that we were big on recruits being able to win their own ball more than most, is this still the case?

Could this mean that someone like Bonner could slip?

Warning: traditional Dan TL;DR post ahead.

I don't think it's so much that they rate them lower, but a player that is heavily outside is a bit more of a risk. There are added question marks on this type of player. As well as adjusting to the greater speed, endurance level, skill level, strength, emphasis on structure and tactics, etc of AFL level, they need to adjust to the dearth of space. Generally you get a lot more time and a lot less pressure at U18 level, and as a result recruiters don't get a broad sample of how players cope when they're closed down or forced to make split decisions. When they then transition, they can get found out if they are poor decision makers under pressure (Tutt), if their skills are poor under pressure (Howard), if they're not fond of contact (Watts), or if they simply just can't find the space they need to (or attract the ball at the level required) at AFL level (Darley in my opinion).

With that said, however, I believe a bit of a fallacy has developed in this regard. A player having a 30:70 CP:UP ratio doesn't necessarily make them a greater risk than a player with a 50:50 ratio, nor does it necessarily make them a greater risk than a player with a 80-20 ratio. In fact it's entirely possible to sustain this uncontested style of play at AFL level: for example, Grant Birchall (76.2% UP last year) and our own Bob Murphy (73.5% UP last year) gather way more uncontested footy than they do contested footy yet both are very good players. There is a difference between the issues presented above and being a player who operates mostly in space.

To answer your Bonner question more directly, he will only slide as a result of his outside tendencies if:

• His ability to find space and attract the ball is thought to be prone to breakdown at AFL level, and/or;
• He is perceived to be soft, and/or;
• His inability to win contested footy is due to losing contests rather than just getting himself in uncontested positions more commonly (and there is little scope for potential improvement), and/or;
• His skills/decision making/etc fall away under pressure, and/or;
• His ability to find space is wrongly harnessed and results in him being a defensive liability.

There is a very real chance I simply rate him higher than many others, which is why I specified the bolded - he could drop as a result of other issues, but I'm talking specifically to your comments about winning your own ball.

Bonner is a risk and, while his performances have been good, is more an upside pick than a raw numbers pick. I do think however, from the footage I've seen, his outside focus is being overblown into something it's not. Others who have seen more of him are better placed to make this judgment but I don't think any of the above issues apply to Bonner - he's simply good at getting into space and receiving the ball, which is extremely beneficial to a side. He has other things to improve - does need to get better at the contested stuff, needs a better intercept game, has to be better defensively, etc - but I don't see the nature of his possession gathering to be a massive issue, nor do I think it can't be improved.

TL;DR - yes, players who can't win their own ball are a bit riskier but I believe the risk is commonly misdirected and exaggerated.

 

[womble54]

Just say we have pick 11 or 10 in this draft I think we should value add to Gold Coast or some one else.

Imagine if we had picks 19-20-21 for say pick 11 and Talia thinking like this whilst our list is flying would put us ahead of the pack.

Loss:
Pick 11 and Talia
Gain:
19-Burton 192cm Forward
20-Bonner 190cm HBF
21-McKay 200cm CHF

Then with picks
27 Parsons 189 Midfielder
44 Crocker 185cm forward onballer

Off list
Fuller
Talia-Trade
Minson-Trade
Prudent-Trade
Darley-Trade


Thoughts??

Have you seen all these kids play? What does Crocker bring to the table over Prudden with 3 years in the system. If you are just picking names out of the Phantom Draft board then I would've thought thought a developing Talia, Prudden (who has been injured but is starting to show bits albeit some feel is too slow to make it a theory I don't yet subscribe too) and Darley who has shown bits over the journey but the jury is still out plus pick 11 and pick 27 is a better fit than three maybes in the very dangerous 19-22 territory.

 

[Gmod23]

Just say we have pick 11 or 10 in this draft I think we should value add to Gold Coast or some one else.

Imagine if we had picks 19-20-21 for say pick 11 and Talia thinking like this whilst our list is flying would put us ahead of the pack.

Loss:
Pick 11 and Talia
Gain:
19-Burton 192cm Forward
20-Bonner 190cm HBF
21-McKay 200cm CHF

Then with picks
27 Parsons 189 Midfielder
44 Crocker 185cm forward onballer

Off list
Fuller
Talia-Trade
Minson-Trade
Prudent-Trade
Darley-Trade


Thoughts??

Show me how to get picks 9-11 and we could get two of those players but either Burton or McKay will likely be gone at pick 9. Early picking teams need forwards and those two are IMO the second and third best forwards in the draft.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Show me how to get picks 9-11 and we could get two of those players but either Burton or McKay will likely be gone at pick 9. Early picking teams need forwards and those two are IMO the second and third best forwards in the draft.

Not to mention picks 19, 20 and 21 effectively become picks 22,23 and 24 once Mills, Hopper, Kennedy, Keays and Hipwood are taken by GWS/Sydney/Brisbane.

 

[topdog69]

Just say we have pick 11 or 10 in this draft I think we should value add to Gold Coast or some one else.

Imagine if we had picks 19-20-21 for say pick 11 and Talia thinking like this whilst our list is flying would put us ahead of the pack.

Loss:
Pick 11 and Talia
Gain:
19-Burton 192cm Forward
20-Bonner 190cm HBF
21-McKay 200cm CHF

Then with picks
27 Parsons 189 Midfielder
44 Crocker 185cm forward onballer

Off list
Fuller
Talia-Trade
Minson-Trade
Prudent-Trade
Darley-Trade


Thoughts??

We are not trade Talia our first pick for 19-21 with bidding system done live fatherson/ Academy player to dangerous for mine no guarantee the players you mentioned will be there at those picks

 

[Mofra]

With that said, however, I believe a bit of a fallacy has developed in this regard. A player having a 30:70 CP:UP ratio doesn't necessarily make them a greater risk than a player with a 50:50 ratio, nor does it necessarily make them a greater risk than a player with a 80-20 ratio. In fact it's entirely possible to sustain this uncontested style of play at AFL level: for example, Grant Birchall (76.2% UP last year) and our own Bob Murphy (73.5% UP last year) gather way more uncontested footy than they do contested footy yet both are very good players. There is a difference between the issues presented above and being a player who operates mostly in space.

With respect, the UP vs CP ratio is only irrelevant for guys who don't play through the midfield - Murph & Birchall generally play behind the ball and not through contested pack situations. Outside of this sort of player I believe the UP:CP ratios does make sense to note.
Toumpas & Cale Morton in particular were gun juniors with high UP % figures who just couldn't translate anything like their junior dominance to the big stage.

Ball winning ability if combined with better than average disposal can be devastating - Ollie Wines is an obvious example, while we tend to forget Libba scored 3rd in the kicking test at draft camp and is actually a brilliant kick on his left if given any space.
Look at Caleb Daniel - predominately an inside mid junior and SANFL yet performed well to start his career as an outside forward linking type.

 

[BRWB]

Just another question for you talent watchers.

Which player(s) have shown the most improvement this year?
Which player(s) have the most 'blue sky'?

Based on Dal's drafting history if we answer those two questions, we'll be getting an idea IMO.

And dannnnnnnnnn thanks for the earlier response - very educational.

 

[Dav1d]

Just another question for you talent watchers.

Which player(s) have shown the most improvement this year?
Which player(s) have the most 'blue sky'?

Based on Dal's drafting history if we answer those two questions, we'll be getting an idea IMO.

And dannnnnnnnnn thanks for the earlier response - very educational.

isn't that the fictional drug from Breaking Bad? (forgive me, just pulled an all nighter)

Thus far the most improved player would probably be Gach Nyoun, taken massive steps
others might say Keiran Collins

 

[Wizard17]

Just another question for you talent watchers.

Which player(s) have shown the most improvement this year?
Which player(s) have the most 'blue sky'?

Based on Dal's drafting history if we answer those two questions, we'll be getting an idea IMO.

And dannnnnnnnnn thanks for the earlier response - very educational.

Harrison McKay. Has come out of nowhere.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Would anyone who has been following the draft a lot this year so far (thinking of Wizard17 and Dav1d ) care to whip up a Bulldogs-specific wishlist at this point? I did the one below but it's really just based on what I've read. Would be really interested to see one from those who actually watch games.

1. Jacob Weitering
2. Josh Schache
3. Aaron Francis
4. Darcy Parish
5. Callum Mills
6. Jacob Hopper
7. Charlie Curnow
8. Riley Bonner
9. Harry McKay
10. Rhys Mathieson
11. Ryan Burton
12. Kieran Collins
13. Callum Ah Chee
14. Darcy Tucker
15. Eric Hipwood
16. Harley Balic
17. Ben Keays
18. Ryan Clarke
19. Matthew Kennedy
20. Luke Partington
21. Mitchell Hibberd
22. Wayne Milera
23. Nick O'Kearney
24. Jade Gresham
25. Josh Dunkley

 

[Dav1d]

Would anyone who has been following the draft a lot this year so far (thinking of Wizard17 and Dav1d ) care to whip up a Bulldogs-specific wishlist at this point? I did the one below but it's really just based on what I've read. Would be really interested to see one from those who actually watch games.

1. Jacob Weitering
2. Josh Schache
3. Aaron Francis
4. Darcy Parish
5. Callum Mills
6. Jacob Hopper
7. Charlie Curnow
8. Riley Bonner
9. Harry McKay
10. Rhys Mathieson
11. Ryan Burton
12. Kieran Collins
13. Callum Ah Chee
14. Darcy Tucker
15. Eric Hipwood
16. Harley Balic
17. Ben Keays
18. Ryan Clarke
19. Matthew Kennedy
20. Luke Partington
21. Mitchell Hibberd
22. Wayne Milera
23. Nick O'Kearney
24. Jade Gresham
25. Josh Dunkley

1. Jacob Weitering
2. Darcy Parish
   
3. Josh Schache
   
4. Charlie Curnow
   
5. Aaron Francis
   
6. Callum Mills
   
7. Matthew Kennedy
   
8. Ben Keays
   
9. Keiran Collins
   
10. Jacob Hopper
    
11. Harry McKay
    
12. Eric Hipwood
    
13. Rhys Mathieson
    
14. Callum Ah Chee
    
15. Harley Balic
    
16. Riley Bonner
    
17. Mitchell Hibberd
    
18. Darcy Tucker
    
19. Sam Weideman
    
20. Tom Cole
    
21. James Parsons
22. Harrison Himmelberg
    
23. Stephen Tahana
    
24. Sam Skinner
    
25. Jesse Glass-McCasker

 

[CaptainMurphy]

1. Jacob Weitering
2. Darcy Parish
   
3. Josh Schache
   
4. Charlie Curnow
   
5. Aaron Francis
   
6. Callum Mills
   
7. Matthew Kennedy
   
8. Ben Keays
   
9. Keiran Collins
   
10. Jacob Hopper
    
11. Harry McKay
    
12. Eric Hipwood
    
13. Rhys Mathieson
    
14. Callum Ah Chee
    
15. Harley Balic
    
16. Riley Bonner
    
17. Mitchell Hibberd
    
18. Darcy Tucker
    
19. Sam Weideman
    
20. Tom Cole
    
21. James Parsons
22. Harrison Himmelberg
    
23. Stephen Tahana
    
24. Sam Skinner
    
25. Jesse Glass-McCasker

Love that you rate Curnow so high. Hibberd too. Everything I've read about Kennedy and Keays makes them seem too inside for us, without the silky outside skills I'm thinking we need. And I've been scared off Weiderman by a phantom drafter comparing him to Liam Jones.

 

[Wizard17]

1. Jacob Weitering
2. Darcy Parish
   
3. Josh Schache
   
4. Charlie Curnow
   
5. Aaron Francis
   
6. Callum Mills
   
7. Matthew Kennedy
   
8. Ben Keays
   
9. Keiran Collins
   
10. Jacob Hopper
    
11. Harry McKay
    
12. Eric Hipwood
    
13. Rhys Mathieson
    
14. Callum Ah Chee
    
15. Harley Balic
    
16. Riley Bonner
    
17. Mitchell Hibberd
    
18. Darcy Tucker
    
19. Sam Weideman
    
20. Tom Cole
    
21. James Parsons
22. Harrison Himmelberg
    
23. Stephen Tahana
    
24. Sam Skinner
    
25. Jesse Glass-McCasker

1. Jacob Weitering
2. Darcy Parish
3. Charles Curnow
4. Aaron Francis
5. Joshua Schache
6. Callum Mills
7. Rhys Mathieson
8. Matthew Kennedy
9. Jacob Hopper
10. Harrison McKay
11. Eric Hipwood
12. Riley Bonner
13. Harley Balic
14. Darcy Tucker
15. Kieren Collins
16. Luke Partington
17. Tom Cole
18. Ryan Clarke
19. Mitchell Hibberd
20. Sam Skinner
21. Sam Weideman
22. James Parsons
23. Callum Ah Chee
24. Wayne Milera
25. Brayden Fiorini

 

[Dav1d]

Love that you rate Curnow so high. Hibberd too. Everything I've read about Kennedy and Keays makes them seem too inside for us, without the silky outside skills I'm thinking we need. And I've been scared off Weiderman by a phantom drafter comparing him to Liam Jones.

I wouldn't be too scared off, Skippos took him for Adelaide
so he can't rate him too poorly; I did intentionally leave out Burton as well & Glass-McCasker is one that I have rated for a while

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I wouldn't be too scared off, Skippos took him for Adelaide
so he can't rate him too poorly; I did intentionally leave out Burton as well & Glass-McCasker is one that I have rated for a while

Oh yeah, no Burton, didn't notice. Just the broken leg or don't rate him?

And what's G-McC like?

 

[Wizard17]

Just a horrible break. I don't think anyone will take a risk with him first round though everyone will be checking to see if he can come back 100% from it.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Just a horrible break. I don't think anyone will take a risk with him first round though everyone will be checking to see if he can come back 100% from it.

Maybe I'm too swayed towards the hopeful by the risk on Stringer paying off.

 

[Dav1d]

Oh yeah, no Burton, didn't notice. Just the broken leg or don't rate him?

And what's G-McC like?

I rate Burton, Stringer played in his draft year though
Burton did not, so it makes judging how much he might have improved compared to last year impossible
& I believe if Lever can slide like he did then so could better, probably sounds like silly logic
but that is just my opinion

G-McC is a Skinny KPD that uses the ball well, sticks to his task, doesn't get much of the ball, reads the flight of the ball beautifully
but his currently skinny body gets him bumped out of the drop zone of the ball & I think that he averaged about 2-3 contested marks per game in the Champs & there is just something there that I like

 

[CaptainMurphy]

I rate Burton, Stringer played in his draft year though
Burton did not, so it makes judging how much he might have improved compared to last year impossible
& I believe if Lever can slide like he did then so could better, probably sounds like silly logic
but that is just my opinion

G-McC is a Skinny KPD that uses the ball well, sticks to his task, doesn't get much of the ball, reads the flight of the ball beautifully
but his currently skinny body gets him bumped out of the drop zone of the ball & I think that he averaged about 2-3 contested marks per game in the Champs & there is just something there that I like

What pick would you risk on Burton then, do you think?

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

With respect, the UP vs CP ratio is only irrelevant for guys who don't play through the midfield - Murph & Birchall generally play behind the ball and not through contested pack situations. Outside of this sort of player I believe the UP:CP ratios does make sense to note.
Toumpas & Cale Morton in particular were gun juniors with high UP % figures who just couldn't translate anything like their junior dominance to the big stage.

Ball winning ability if combined with better than average disposal can be devastating - Ollie Wines is an obvious example, while we tend to forget Libba scored 3rd in the kicking test at draft camp and is actually a brilliant kick on his left if given any space.
Look at Caleb Daniel - predominately an inside mid junior and SANFL yet performed well to start his career as an outside forward linking type.

Good point and I do agree that the stat is less meaningful for non-mids (and in hindsight my post probably shouldn't have been so centred around it). That assessment is still beneficial to Bonner though who plays predominantly off half back (and that's where I'd want him to play at the top level as well, with short stints off a wing if he can add that to his game).

 

[Skippos]

I rate Burton, Stringer played in his draft year though
Burton did not, so it makes judging how much he might have improved compared to last year impossible
& I believe if Lever can slide like he did then so could better, probably sounds like silly logic
but that is just my opinion

G-McC is a Skinny KPD that uses the ball well, sticks to his task, doesn't get much of the ball, reads the flight of the ball beautifully
but his currently skinny body gets him bumped out of the drop zone of the ball & I think that he averaged about 2-3 contested marks per game in the Champs & there is just something there that I like

McCasker is a terrible kick and more physically developed than you're giving him credit for.

I'd be surprised if Burton goes first round. Byt in this draft with the shallowness of it there'll be a club who goes early. It'll be whenever they start getting genuine ?s on talent. Imo 20-30

Put it this way - I'd much rather a player whose only real ? is injury than a player whose ? is a lack of talent.

Burton was a 3-7 pick before this imo. Getting a 3-7 for pick 25? Worth the punt. I'd give up four pick 25s for pick five*, so essentially imo picking him there is picking him for 25% of the value he'd be if injury didn't occur. Steal.

* not as a one off. As a one off the risk associated with pick 5 is too strong. But over a larger sample I'd do that as the larger the sample the closer results get to the mean and lesser risk. So for example id give up pick 25*4 ten times for pick 5 ten times but I wouldn't do pick 25*4 for pick 5. Just thought I'd clarify before being pulled up!

 

[Dav1d]

McCasker is a terrible kick and more physically developed than you're giving him credit for.

I definitely think that he could add a lot more muscle to that frame though
& by terrible kick, do you mean the decisions that he makes by foot are terrible or he has a terrible kicking action?

Anyway, there is something that I like about him

 

[topdog69]

How is Jack Owen going for Willamstown given he was invited to draft camp last year ? I notice that Karl Brown kicked 3 goal yesterday match his teammates Mark Kovaic was named one the best player