2015 Draft, Trade & Free Agent Discussion & Speculation Thread

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beetz

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Pretty hard to get the #1 pick these days without paying overs.

Even though it hasn't produced results yet, Freo's strategy is to target KPP types through free agency, players looking to come home, pre-season draft etc. Freo will has and will continue to have a fairly strong midfield for years to come which includes Weller and Blakely should they reach the potential everyone is expecting.
 

beetz

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You have to look at precedence: Bulldogs traded Ryan Griffen (elite midfielder) and pick 6 for Tom Boyd.
 

TheMcManusNose

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Depends on each clubs circumstances.

Yeah but that's an idea of the cost. You need to have at least a top 10 pick going back plus more. O'Rourke was a #2 pick two years prior who had stalled in his development, had injuries and wanted to go home and he cost #19 (roughly we're we will pick). Sheridan/Crozier/Clarke isn't the difference between a stalled O'Rourke and a number #1 pick.

Or, for the ultimate comparisons:

1, 20, 36 for Croad (pick 4), McPharlin (pick 10).

Des Headland (pick 1) for Adam McPhee (pick 39), 3, 19
 
You have to look at precedence: Bulldogs traded Ryan Griffen (elite midfielder) and pick 6 for Tom Boyd.

Don't forget Boyd was pick 1 in the draft and McCarthy was taken at ~15. Since Hogan was taken in the rookie mini draft thing there is no precedence set for a trade for him.
 

rodney hoo

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Pretty hard to get the #1 pick these days without paying overs.

Even though it hasn't produced results yet, Freo's strategy is to target KPP types through free agency, players looking to come home, pre-season draft etc. Freo will has and will continue to have a fairly strong midfield for years to come which includes Weller and Blakely should they reach the potential everyone is expecting.

Weller no guarantee he does not want to get back to Victoria, his whole family moved there when his brother ended up at saints, his mother looked absolutely shocked on draft day when Freo called him out.
Weller & Clarke to saints would get first IMO but saints won't be last and not certain we want loose Clarke.
 

ilikepotatoes

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Weller no guarantee he does not want to get back to Victoria, his whole family moved there when his brother ended up at saints, his mother looked absolutely shocked on draft day when Freo called him out.
Weller & Clarke to saints would get first IMO but saints won't be last and not certain we want loose Clarke.
We'd need to chuck in our fist pick as well to get pick 1, and even then we'd be lucky. Clubs overvalue draft picks.
 
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We'd need to chuck in our fist pick as well to get pick 1, and even then we'd be lucky. Clubs overvalue draft picks.
Not sure why we would want the number 1 pick for the cost. If we get the best key forward in the land they won't be ready for another 3 years to even get to Tabs level. For every Cameron, there are 50 others who take time, if they make it.
 

manpurple

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Other examples of relevance are Beams + 67 for 5, 25 and Crisp.
Now Beams was a certified gun but Crisp was a round 3 rookie selection (effectively pick 135)
Now I think that we can all agree that McCarthy is going to be be good if .... And this is the point, he might do himself an injury or want to go into business (Rance) or any one of a number of things that mean he doesn't make the grade, he is just starting.
But a genuine star player only gets a low round 1, pick a mid round 2 pick and a rookie.

Or consider the points system the AFL has in place for the F/S rule. I am sure that it will be dragged out by negotiators during trade week. McCarthy was pick 15 (1,112) and worst (best, hoping for GF win) case scenario is pick 19 (compensations will be in there i imagine so 948). For which we would need 164 points of compensation which is pick 58. For us that would mean we need to use our round 1 and round 3 picks (last R3 pick is 220 points). Do I think this is realistic? In the current environment probably not but I am willing to bet in a few years that things will start to normalise in this direction.
 

PurpleEyes

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Freo have used 27 players so far in 2015.
They drafted two of those players using a top 10 National draft pick; Hill (2008 #3), Pavlich (1999 #4).
In addition, McPharlin was a Hawthorn #10 1999 National Draft player, who we got by trading away in 2001 #1, #20 & #36 for McPharlin and Trent Croad (a #3 1997 Draft). Trent Croad was then traded back to Hawthorn for the #10 2003 Draft pick.

Also, when I look at the top 10 picks of the last 15 years of AFL National Drafts (some 150 odd players), I see about 65 of them are 190cm+ players, of various types, including midfielders, rucks, forwards, defenders, utilities who may at some stage be thought of as a Key Position Player.
Less than 10 of those 190cm+, I would consider as proven real good KPP's (eg. Roughead, Franklin, Kennedy, Hurley, ...).
There's about another 10 190cm+ good KPP's, who I rate as probably just a little better than Freo's current Taberner or A. Pearce type prospects (Mackie, Nathan Brown, Tyrone Vickory, Kepler Bradley, David Hale, ...).
So in my eyes, about 20 of the 150 top 10 National Draft picks in the last 15 years have ended up being good KPPs.

That is, your chances of getting a quality KPP via the National Draft with a top 10 pick are not great.
Many of the current top KPP's in the league playing now have come from outside the top 10 National draft.

I believe you just need to keep drafting and hope that you can find one good enough to be a regular starter in your 22.
I am not a fan of trading and I just don't see big name KPP's coming to Freo unless you are willing to pay them more than they are worth.
Besides, I think in todays game, KPP's are overrated. Sometimes, the quality of your teams worst few players can have more of an effect on the outcome in today's game, what with the way teams can capitalise on turnovers.
 

Dockernut

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No reason why we couldn't go all out and pick as many talls as we can at the next draft. Can't really think of an area where we have significant deficiencies in terms of depth (maybe small forwards) aside from our tall stocks. Won't happen, but would love to see us scour the country and put a handful of tall units on the list and say: "you want it, prove yourself".
 

free at last

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Freo have used 27 players so far in 2015.
They drafted two of those players using a top 10 National draft pick; Hill (2008 #3), Pavlich (1999 #4).
In addition, McPharlin was a Hawthorn #10 1999 National Draft player, who we got by trading away in 2001 #1, #20 & #36 for McPharlin and Trent Croad (a #3 1997 Draft). Trent Croad was then traded back to Hawthorn for the #10 2003 Draft pick.

Also, when I look at the top 10 picks of the last 15 years of AFL National Drafts (some 150 odd players), I see about 65 of them are 190cm+ players, of various types, including midfielders, rucks, forwards, defenders, utilities who may at some stage be thought of as a Key Position Player.
Less than 10 of those 190cm+, I would consider as proven real good KPP's (eg. Roughead, Franklin, Kennedy, Hurley, ...).
There's about another 10 190cm+ good KPP's, who I rate as probably just a little better than Freo's current Taberner or A. Pearce type prospects (Mackie, Nathan Brown, Tyrone Vickory, Kepler Bradley, David Hale, ...).
So in my eyes, about 20 of the 150 top 10 National Draft picks in the last 15 years have ended up being good KPPs.

That is, your chances of getting a quality KPP via the National Draft with a top 10 pick are not great.
Many of the current top KPP's in the league playing now have come from outside the top 10 National draft.

I believe you just need to keep drafting and hope that you can find one good enough to be a regular starter in your 22.
I am not a fan of trading and I just don't see big name KPP's coming to Freo unless you are willing to pay them more than they are worth.
Besides, I think in todays game, KPP's are overrated. Sometimes, the quality of your teams worst few players can have more of an effect on the outcome in today's game, what with the way teams can capitalise on turnovers.

I'd love for us to trade super hard for Hogan,hopefully it happens at seasons end.
 

malpaso

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I am not a fan of trading
Consistent winning sides trade. Players not getting a run and/or undervalued by their current club. Jack Crisp FFS, Round 3 rookie, steal by the Pies.
There will be someone we pick up via trade this year I've no doubt and if we don't we are sitting on our hands.
 

darkshines

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Purely hypothetical, if Melbourne came back this year and said we'll take a 2014 All Australian small fwd plus first pick for Hogan, would you take it?

I know this goes against the bigfooty ethos of ridiculous trades; where you get a gun for a pack of smokes.

Getting Hogan would probably mean we contend, or play finals at the very least, until Fyfe retires. Would you say the same for the 27yo?

I'd do the above trade. Hit me with your torrent of abuse.
 

Agenfrida

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Yeah same. Clarke, Crozier/Sheridan and our first round pick, not enough though.
He's a player that they will build the side around. There is no way in hell that they're going to trade him, no matter who and or what picks we offer. I mean, If he was a Vic and we had him on our list, do you really think we'd trade him?

The ONLY way he's coming to us is if Hogan says "I'm off" and forces Melbourne's hand.

Apologies in advance to anyone I offend, but talk of offering Clarke, Crozier or anyone else is just poorly thought out dribble, IMO.
 

beetz

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Rather than trade away depth and picks there's every chance we may spend some time at the southern end of the ladder for a couple of season, hopefully draft some promising key position players and reload for another flag with our still dominant midfield which will hopefully still consist of Fyfe, Hill, Neale, Weller, Blakely et al.

The above is the post Pav, Sandi, McPharlin era
 

kp junior

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Purely hypothetical, if Melbourne came back this year and said we'll take a 2014 All Australian small fwd plus first pick for Hogan, would you take it?

I know this goes against the bigfooty ethos of ridiculous trades; where you get a gun for a pack of smokes.

Getting Hogan would probably mean we contend, or play finals at the very least, until Fyfe retires. Would you say the same for the 27yo?

I'd do the above trade. Hit me with your torrent of abuse.
Anyone would do that trade, but Melbourne wouldn't. Would you take that for Fyfe? Fyfe's roughly the level Melbourne would put Hogan at, if it was up to them.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 

darkshines

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Anyone would do that trade, but Melbourne wouldn't. Would you take that for Fyfe? Fyfe's roughly the level Melbourne would put Hogan at, if it was up to them.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

True. Unmentioned part is trade would only be on if Hogan wanted home a year early, which would shake Melbourne's tree.

So if not Ballantyne, what player + pick gets Hogan? Anyone bar Fyfe on the table?
 
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