I agree, but not this year. Maybe in a few years. The 11 I nominated I believe could step up to A grade this season.
2015 Ladder Prediction
- Thread starter ShanDog
- Start date
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I agree, but not this year. Maybe in a few years. The 11 I nominated I believe could step up to A grade this season.
huddler
Senior List
1. Sydney
2. Port
3. Hawthorn
4. Fremantle
---------------
5. North
6. Carlton
7. Gold Coast
8. Geelong
----------------
9. Adelaide
10. Brisbane
11. Essendon
12. Richmond
13. Dogs
14. GWS
15. West Coast
16. Demons
17. St Kilda
18. Collingwood
2. Port
3. Hawthorn
4. Fremantle
---------------
5. North
6. Carlton
7. Gold Coast
8. Geelong
----------------
9. Adelaide
10. Brisbane
11. Essendon
12. Richmond
13. Dogs
14. GWS
15. West Coast
16. Demons
17. St Kilda
18. Collingwood
thylacine60
Premium Platinum
- Banned
- #78
mad optimism, huddles.......respect 
are you completely insane?
are you completely insane?
huddler
Senior List
"Sanity and happiness are an impossible combination" - Twain.mad optimism, huddles.......respect
I'm just happy, Thy.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Pumpy, using the same scale, what would be hawthorn or Sydney's number? I'm ok with 11 but not if these guys have 20...
Bring on Vinnie
Senior List
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An interesting exercise is to run through the list and analyse whose output will improve this year v last, who will plateau and who's output will drop off. If you apply this to our best 26 and given their injuries/form/age last year, most would be graded as improving this year.
Output to Plateau relative to 2014
Gibbs
Simpson
Rowe
Jamison
Everitt
Curnow
Wood
Output to Diminish relative to 2014
I don't believe any of our best 26 will go backwards. Only injury will reduce their output from 2014
We will miss Waite from our best 22 and possibly Robbo
Output to Increase relative to 2014
Walker (based on his injuries last year)
Menzel (experience)
Murphy (injuries)
Judd (injuries)
Buckley (injuries/experience)
Kreuzer (injuries)
Yarran (experience)
Docherty (experience)
Cripps (experience)
Henderson (injuries)
Thomas (injuries)
Casboult (experience)
Tuohy (poor form last year)
Carrazzo (injuries)
Sheehan (experience)
Jones (new)
Jacksh (new)
Whiley (new)
Tutt (new)
Given the easier draw, a better understanding of the game plan, and a better pre-season, only a horror run of injuries will prevent us climbing the ladder.
Output to Plateau relative to 2014
Gibbs
Simpson
Rowe
Jamison
Everitt
Curnow
Wood
Output to Diminish relative to 2014
I don't believe any of our best 26 will go backwards. Only injury will reduce their output from 2014
We will miss Waite from our best 22 and possibly Robbo
Output to Increase relative to 2014
Walker (based on his injuries last year)
Menzel (experience)
Murphy (injuries)
Judd (injuries)
Buckley (injuries/experience)
Kreuzer (injuries)
Yarran (experience)
Docherty (experience)
Cripps (experience)
Henderson (injuries)
Thomas (injuries)
Casboult (experience)
Tuohy (poor form last year)
Carrazzo (injuries)
Sheehan (experience)
Jones (new)
Jacksh (new)
Whiley (new)
Tutt (new)
Given the easier draw, a better understanding of the game plan, and a better pre-season, only a horror run of injuries will prevent us climbing the ladder.
First thing to bear in mind is that I don't believe all 11 will be A graders this year, it's just that I believe that there are 11 players on our list who have the potential to be A Graders. Heck, if Yazz, Murph and Menzel all stepped up this year I'd be thrilled. 11 is a fantasy really.
As for Hawthorn, I just graded their list based on the 2014 season and I have 8 A Graders on there: Roughead, Jordan Lewis, Mitchell, Hodge, Isaac Smith, Gunston, Gibson and Bruest.
The major difference though between them an us is the quality of the rest of their list. I rated Birchall, Burgoyne, Lake, Hale, Bradley Hill and Liam Shiels as B Graders based on 2014, however one could easily argue that they could all be A graders. Jeez, Cyril had a s**t 2014 and I only rated him a C, but as we all know, he's A though and through if he could put an injury free season together. Their top end depth just slaughters ours. Their bottom end depth too!
If I was to rate the Hawks on 2015 potential, I only had 13 A graders. The main difference between us and them, was the rest of the Hawks were potentially B graders (except Schoenmakers!). We have a lot of C and some D graders still lurking on the list.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Cheers Pumpy. Appreciate the response.
Just reinforces the notion that it's not necessarily about bringing in big FA or trade targets but improving the quality of say the bottom 6 of your best 22 and then the depth quality beyond that.
Just reinforces the notion that it's not necessarily about bringing in big FA or trade targets but improving the quality of say the bottom 6 of your best 22 and then the depth quality beyond that.
Tony Lynn 15
Hall of Famer
- Banned
- #84
Great post Vinnie.
The only thing I disagree on is how everyone rated Tuohy's year. He played 22 games which to me would suggest the MC were pretty happy with how he went. I know we all expect a lot but I reckon we were harsh on his output last year.
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Or put another way the consistency/evenness of the list is much more important than having a Dangerfield etc. Isnt this the current strategy we are pursuing atm ? We turned a laverde into Jaksch/whiley/Boekhorst. Just as those three are no certainty to make it neither is Laverde. But for mine, the odds of getting a good player are better with three to choose from.
For all his faults, Demetriou's policies have produced a competition more even than ever before....barring a couple of standouts shored up through
Free Agency. I have high hopes for our Blues with a much improved list. Judicious drafting and trading along with some decent developing players give us hope for the future after some very poor efforts for way too long. With other sides improving too we could finish anywhere from 6 to 16.
1. HAWTHORN...................Great coaching and development, an excellent list, and the spoils of success bringing list top ups a little difficult to
comprehend given salary cap regulations. Hard not to see more of the same if intensity holds.
2. SYDNEY SWANS.............Similar to Hawthorn, perhaps more talent, but not as well drilled. Their weakness lies in defence, with some ageing soldiers and the departure of Malceski. Supreme flat track bullies, but can be exploited if matched in the midfield.
3. PORT ADELAIDE.............Seemingly on the rise, and don't need to improve much. Ryder can only help (unless he and Monfries take a holiday). Their running power is their strength. Burgess driving them even harder this year. Have had mid season hiccups last 2 seasons, I attribute to "burn out", which they have overcome with a freshen up. If driven harder their is some possibility a freshen up will not be enough.
4. NORTH MELBOURNE.......Ridicule as much as we like, they are on the rise. Their recruiting is "each way" with top ups and a few kids. Outside run and "silk" has been an issue. Dal Santo and Higgins help immeasurably as would a fit Wells. Have the players to make a "run"
5. FREMANTLE...................Bit of a transition stage with some KPP's approaching use by. Suspect some good kids on the way. Still plenty of firepower in the engine room and will play a part in September.
6. RICHMOND....................Have enough strength and class across the park, as much as we prefer to think otherwise. Maric and Miles add starch and played a big part in their late resurgence. Dimmer won't play games with Riewoldt again. Griffiths provides a developing foil for both Maric and JR. Well balanced.
7. GOLD COAST.................Will continue to improve as the youngsters develop. Just how quickly will depend on injuries. Suspect a slower burn, but hard to see them missing out this year.
8. CARLTON.......................Optimism maybe, but really liking the list. Established guns getting a good run at it, (read Judd, Thomas) kids developing. Just how high is the ceiling for Menzel, Cripps and co? Time will tell. Have not looked better served with KPP and ruck options for a while.
9. BRISBANE......................Have overachieved in last couple of years suggesting they are better than many think. Lepper doing a great job of uniting the troops. Likely to be a little inconsistent, but that midfield is elite now. Some good young KPPs and topline rucks. Will win their share, maybe more.
10. GEELONG......................Big drop? They do not have the midfield depth. Too reliant on Selwood and Johnson, who is fast approaching use by physically. Have some talent coming, but will need a transition period. Have heaps of tall options but all bar Stanley and Blicavs are unsound. Disclaimer: If D.Menzel and M.Clark can stand up and find form will make a mockery of my analysis.
11. ADELAIDE......................Excellent midfield, strong forward line, changing of the guard down back. New coach could easily bring new starch and consistency across the park. So a big watch, however, may just remain a perennial underachiever.
12. GWS GIANTS..................Patfull and Griffen sure to produce positives with the young list. Plenty of options, but still plenty of questions in attack. Gambling on a slower process, but could be a big improver.
13. WEST COAST..................Priddis won the Brownlow, plenty of votes in an ordinary midfield. Have added depth and talented kids, but I expect their turnaround to take time. Liking the progress of others more.
14. COLLINGWOOD...............No not purely a wish list position. Some good kids coming, but Beams is elite, Ball and Lamumba under rated. Dropping a few percent, with other on the rise. I see this as their mark. Also expect this will be as low as they go.
15. MELBOURNE...................Improving list, they have talent that will thrive as the list balances. Hogan, Petracca and Brayshaw give them great hope. Lamumba, Jeffy and Newton will help. Slow rise the order of the season.
16. WESTERN BULLDOGS......Talented young list, but lost more than they have gained in the short term. Expect a year or two before a big upward curve. Have good young mids on "P" plates still, solid developing KPD's. Still a bit thin up front though.
17. ST. KILDA......................Plenty of light at the end of the tunnel. Great young talent and I rate the coach. Just too soon. Will be capable of causing an upset if taken too lightly.
18. ESSENDON*...................If not censured will play finals. If any justice remains in this twisted world will be missing half of their list.
Free Agency. I have high hopes for our Blues with a much improved list. Judicious drafting and trading along with some decent developing players give us hope for the future after some very poor efforts for way too long. With other sides improving too we could finish anywhere from 6 to 16.
1. HAWTHORN...................Great coaching and development, an excellent list, and the spoils of success bringing list top ups a little difficult to
comprehend given salary cap regulations. Hard not to see more of the same if intensity holds.
2. SYDNEY SWANS.............Similar to Hawthorn, perhaps more talent, but not as well drilled. Their weakness lies in defence, with some ageing soldiers and the departure of Malceski. Supreme flat track bullies, but can be exploited if matched in the midfield.
3. PORT ADELAIDE.............Seemingly on the rise, and don't need to improve much. Ryder can only help (unless he and Monfries take a holiday). Their running power is their strength. Burgess driving them even harder this year. Have had mid season hiccups last 2 seasons, I attribute to "burn out", which they have overcome with a freshen up. If driven harder their is some possibility a freshen up will not be enough.
4. NORTH MELBOURNE.......Ridicule as much as we like, they are on the rise. Their recruiting is "each way" with top ups and a few kids. Outside run and "silk" has been an issue. Dal Santo and Higgins help immeasurably as would a fit Wells. Have the players to make a "run"
5. FREMANTLE...................Bit of a transition stage with some KPP's approaching use by. Suspect some good kids on the way. Still plenty of firepower in the engine room and will play a part in September.
6. RICHMOND....................Have enough strength and class across the park, as much as we prefer to think otherwise. Maric and Miles add starch and played a big part in their late resurgence. Dimmer won't play games with Riewoldt again. Griffiths provides a developing foil for both Maric and JR. Well balanced.
7. GOLD COAST.................Will continue to improve as the youngsters develop. Just how quickly will depend on injuries. Suspect a slower burn, but hard to see them missing out this year.
8. CARLTON.......................Optimism maybe, but really liking the list. Established guns getting a good run at it, (read Judd, Thomas) kids developing. Just how high is the ceiling for Menzel, Cripps and co? Time will tell. Have not looked better served with KPP and ruck options for a while.
9. BRISBANE......................Have overachieved in last couple of years suggesting they are better than many think. Lepper doing a great job of uniting the troops. Likely to be a little inconsistent, but that midfield is elite now. Some good young KPPs and topline rucks. Will win their share, maybe more.
10. GEELONG......................Big drop? They do not have the midfield depth. Too reliant on Selwood and Johnson, who is fast approaching use by physically. Have some talent coming, but will need a transition period. Have heaps of tall options but all bar Stanley and Blicavs are unsound. Disclaimer: If D.Menzel and M.Clark can stand up and find form will make a mockery of my analysis.
11. ADELAIDE......................Excellent midfield, strong forward line, changing of the guard down back. New coach could easily bring new starch and consistency across the park. So a big watch, however, may just remain a perennial underachiever.
12. GWS GIANTS..................Patfull and Griffen sure to produce positives with the young list. Plenty of options, but still plenty of questions in attack. Gambling on a slower process, but could be a big improver.
13. WEST COAST..................Priddis won the Brownlow, plenty of votes in an ordinary midfield. Have added depth and talented kids, but I expect their turnaround to take time. Liking the progress of others more.
14. COLLINGWOOD...............No not purely a wish list position. Some good kids coming, but Beams is elite, Ball and Lamumba under rated. Dropping a few percent, with other on the rise. I see this as their mark. Also expect this will be as low as they go.
15. MELBOURNE...................Improving list, they have talent that will thrive as the list balances. Hogan, Petracca and Brayshaw give them great hope. Lamumba, Jeffy and Newton will help. Slow rise the order of the season.
16. WESTERN BULLDOGS......Talented young list, but lost more than they have gained in the short term. Expect a year or two before a big upward curve. Have good young mids on "P" plates still, solid developing KPD's. Still a bit thin up front though.
17. ST. KILDA......................Plenty of light at the end of the tunnel. Great young talent and I rate the coach. Just too soon. Will be capable of causing an upset if taken too lightly.
18. ESSENDON*...................If not censured will play finals. If any justice remains in this twisted world will be missing half of their list.
happydude
Brownlow Medallist
- Nov 20, 2009
- 10,023
- 11,956
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Port Melbourne, Ice, Raven
Haven't done up a whole ladder but I think we will finish 5-6 port will be 3,4 or 5 (the injury to Jackson trengrove may cost them a couple close ones or at least some %)
Hawks list is starting to age a little but have so much quality so I have them at 2 or 3 Sydney will perform enough in H&A to get top but I don't think they will take out the big one.
Freeo are hard to predict could fall away but are as much chance to stick top 4
St kilda and dogs to battle it out for the spoon. GC for 8th
Tigers should be in September but we know how much fun they are to predict.
Hawks list is starting to age a little but have so much quality so I have them at 2 or 3 Sydney will perform enough in H&A to get top but I don't think they will take out the big one.
Freeo are hard to predict could fall away but are as much chance to stick top 4
St kilda and dogs to battle it out for the spoon. GC for 8th
Tigers should be in September but we know how much fun they are to predict.
Given the easier draw, a better understanding of the game plan, and a better pre-season, only a horror run of injuries will prevent us climbing the ladder.
Take into account that for the past few seasons it's been difficult to find a clear favourite between us, the make up of our team for round 1, which version of Richmond shows up on the night and a host of other factors that can occur in 3 months time, it can really go either way mate.
As for making the 8, we'll be scrapping in by the skin of our teeth if we do so I don't like the odds on that.
PaddySoul
Rookie
Top 6 is a possibility if all falls into place. More likely is 6-12. I do think we'll surprise a few and play finals if we're lucky. But to those who will go in with unrealistic optimism and expectations of finals, I'd suggest to focus success on the development of our young blokes rather than the number in the W column.
happydude
Brownlow Medallist
- Nov 20, 2009
- 10,023
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- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Port Melbourne, Ice, Raven
We have a gambling thread in the blueroom if you're interested.
Bit quiet this time of year but during the AFL season it gets a bit of a run
Bit quiet this time of year but during the AFL season it gets a bit of a run
- Dec 22, 2006
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1. Port
2. Swans
3. Hawks
4. North
5. Tigers
6. Gold Coast
7. Geelong
8. Adelaide
9. Freo
10. Essendon
11. Collingwood
12. Brisbane
13. Carlton
14. GWS
15. Bulldogs
16. West Coast
17. Melbourne
18. Saints
I am not as optimistic as others with how we will go this year, I am not convinced our fwd line will function and i think we have gone backward to go forward with iur list by making some tough calls that will be better in the long term.
Freo I think will battle and be t he big sliders of 2015, they are still too reliant on Pav and Sandilands who are a year older, they made a mistake not being active in the trade period.
Port i think have the list to win it, will need luck with injuries but with Boak, Gray, Wingard a year older they will only get better.
2. Swans
3. Hawks
4. North
5. Tigers
6. Gold Coast
7. Geelong
8. Adelaide
9. Freo
10. Essendon
11. Collingwood
12. Brisbane
13. Carlton
14. GWS
15. Bulldogs
16. West Coast
17. Melbourne
18. Saints
I am not as optimistic as others with how we will go this year, I am not convinced our fwd line will function and i think we have gone backward to go forward with iur list by making some tough calls that will be better in the long term.
Freo I think will battle and be t he big sliders of 2015, they are still too reliant on Pav and Sandilands who are a year older, they made a mistake not being active in the trade period.
Port i think have the list to win it, will need luck with injuries but with Boak, Gray, Wingard a year older they will only get better.
JustaBattler
Everyone Looks Better In Blue
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Wash your mouth out with heavy duty soap!!
SBYM
Fish, chips, cup o' tea, Mary @#? Poppins. London!
Might play finals. Might not. Dunno...
PaddySoul
Rookie
What I think about is that when we were on that decent run of form at the end of last year, the only player we've lost is Waite. Robbo and Jeff weren't in the side and we had about 5 key players out injured. With all reports of a decent preseason, I wouldn't expect us to go backwards.
Cautiously optimistic.
Cautiously optimistic.
Fun fact. We won more games out of form in our first 10 games last season then we did in form during our last 10 games of the season.
Finish 4-6 as I believe we will have improved significantly since last year and I am tipping last day in September action for us this year.
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Always look on the Bright Side of Life (Well Mick looks like a long lost cousin of John Cleese, sort of 
) ..
I am tipping us to finish 10th .. Just don't think we've got enough games into the kids yet, to have enough depth in our best 22 make a sustained push for the finals..
I hate being negative, but in my opinion, there is still far too much being left for too few on our list.
Love our new recruits, but don't think they will be enough to get us over the line.
Anyhow, aside from probably Essendon* and maybe Richmond, its hard to imagine any 2014 finalist being dislodged from the eight (although we say the same thing every year)
) ..I am tipping us to finish 10th .. Just don't think we've got enough games into the kids yet, to have enough depth in our best 22 make a sustained push for the finals..
I hate being negative, but in my opinion, there is still far too much being left for too few on our list.
Love our new recruits, but don't think they will be enough to get us over the line.
Anyhow, aside from probably Essendon* and maybe Richmond, its hard to imagine any 2014 finalist being dislodged from the eight (although we say the same thing every year)
