List Mgmt. 2015 general list discussion and speculation - PLEASE START NEW THREAD ON BREAKING NEWS

[Partridge]

We went out in straight sets, having appeared to learn little from our failings in finals since 2011.

They powered past everyone (apart from Port, who are obviously coming in a big way). Including a thunderous GF smashing that meant the game was effectively over before quarter time.

I'd like to think you're right about (1) as well. But not even I can be that optimistic about what would need to go right for us and what would need to go wrong for them.

Yep. Right now, after the way we exited the finals, after the way we underperformed again in September, we have to be humble and acknowledge that other teams are doing things much better than us. Rather than get defensive and state proudly we're on the same footing for 2015, or as big a threat for the flag (we're just not), we should be asking "what can we learn from them?". How come their slow midfield can cut Sydney to pieces? How do they always hit up targets? How come their veterans actually do play their best footy in September (the polar opposite to us)?

 

[GFrost]

So would I. And then I'd wake up from the world's most magnificent dream.

Shhhhhh you are interrupting me... Menzel is about to kick the winning goal after the siren in the Granny....against the Hawks.......

 

[GFrost]

Tim Membry of Syd requesting a trade... Is he a forward?

And Bucks after Paddy:
Buckley said he hadn't spoken to Dangerfield or his management but, when asked if the Pies had, he replied: "I dare say, I dare say".
"What I will say… is that we look at every opportunity to improve our list," Buckley said.

 

[rocker_oz33]

Tim Membry is a forward yes.
Our Tom Harley is the swans new GM of football,good less tv time for him i hope.

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

Tim Membry of Syd requesting a trade... Is he a forward?

And Bucks after Paddy:
Buckley said he hadn't spoken to Dangerfield or his management but, when asked if the Pies had, he replied: "I dare say, I dare say".
"What I will say… is that we look at every opportunity to improve our list," Buckley said.

Yeah, supposedly gun 3rd tall type, strong, Kersten-like. Doesn't really fit what we need unfortunately.

 

[Footy Smarts]

How do you figure that? Hawks are the reigning premiers who just dismantled the next best side in a GF. Geelong went out in straight sets.

Look who their best players were. Mitchell, Lake, Burgoyne, Hodge, Hale and Gibson were all huge in finals and they're all over 30. They'll all be over 31 this time next year. They planned it well and got a bit lucky having every older player fit and firing come finals. But realistically if any of them are playing as well this time next year as they were this year they'll have done extremely well, let alone getting all 6 of them up and going. That's a big drop off that's almost certain to happen in the next year. They've got some good young players but there's no way they can overcome that drop, just like we couldn't overcome our losses since 2011 immediately.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Ours goes alright too.

#inwellswetrust

One for trades, one for the draft

 

[4quarter_cat]

Yep. Right now, after the way we exited the finals, after the way we underperformed again in September, we have to be humble and acknowledge that other teams are doing things much better than us. Rather than get defensive and state proudly we're on the same footing for 2015, or as big a threat for the flag (we're just not), we should be asking "what can we learn from them?". How come their slow midfield can cut Sydney to pieces? How do they always hit up targets? How come their veterans actually do play their best footy in September (the polar opposite to us)?

Unlike you P, I don't work for or at the club. So I have the privilege of being able to step back and trust that our management and coaching staff conduct that kind of review post every season. I also think the answer to them will be easily overcome. The question will be how will Hawthorn re-invent themselves too.

I am also inspired by the flash in the pan 15 minute periods against the Hawks and North, where we absolutely tore them apart and looked like the Geelong of old again. Unfortunately we couldn't maintain them, or waited too long before going for it in both games.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Look who their best players were. Mitchell, Lake, Burgoyne, Hodge, Hale and Gibson were all huge in finals and they're all over 30. They'll all be over 31 this time next year. They planned it well and got a bit lucky having every older player fit and firing come finals. But realistically if any of them are playing as well this time next year as they were this year they'll have done extremely well, let alone getting all 6 of them up and going. That's a big drop off that's almost certain to happen in the next year. They've got some good young players but there's no way they can overcome that drop, just like we couldn't overcome our losses since 2011 immediately.

It's not almost certain to happen next year. All those players are in their 30s, but they're still playing well. There's nothing to suggest a radical drop-off will occur. They've managed their veterans very well over the last couple of years so that they're peaking during finals time, as opposed to all getting injured and looking slow and terrible during the finals, which has been the case with Geelong's veterans since 2011.

 

[catempire]

View attachment 83838

One for trades, one for the draft

Balmey goes alright too. Landed a big fish just this week.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Balmey goes alright too. Landed a big fish just this week.

Who?

 

[Tackle_happy]

Fair enough, Scott Seward.

They seem like they're not slowing down at anything like the rate our vets are.

But we all know the end can come quickly.

And surely Lake isn't part of Frawley's thinking, anyway. Chip's basically being recruited to take his place.

Wondering what their training methods are?

Our over the hill seniors seem to be slowing down more and more (were never particularly fast), whilst theirs (also not fast) are able to maintain and look as good as they did for the last few season.

Lets hope our new fitness peeps can help out in that matter!

 

[Tackle_happy]

Tim Membry is a forward yes.
Our Tom Harley is the swans new GM of football,good less tv time for him i hope.

Thats awesome!

By that I mean less of him on TV of course.

 

[Partridge]

Unlike you P, I don't work for or at the club. So I have the privilege of being able to step back and trust that our management and coaching staff conduct that kind of review post every season. I also think the answer to them will be easily overcome. The question will be how will Hawthorn re-invent themselves too.

I don't work for the club either. I have the privilege of being able to think for myself. I also have very little trust in Scott or Balme, and after three pretty ordinary finals effort I'm not so sure gaping holes in our list, gameplan and fitness are going to be fixed in one off-season. I very much doubt they can be "easily overcome".

When and where did I say I ever worked for the club?

I am also inspired by the flash in the pan 15 minute periods against the Hawks and North, where we absolutely tore them apart and looked like the Geelong of old again. Unfortunately we couldn't maintain them, or waited too long before going for it in both games.

I'm not inspired by that. I'm sobered far more by the rest of each game where Hawthorn played with us like a pet puppy, or where North comprehensively outplayed us for the first 3 quarters.

I said it earlier, I'm adopting the null hypothesis. If Scott or Balme or anyone else from the club says we're aiming for top 4, or we're the equal of Hawthorn, that's great.

Prove it.

 

[JUBJUB]

I also have very little trust in Scott or Balme

Gee,we never would've known by reading your whiny posts.
There you go,you learn knew things everyday.

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

Wondering what their training methods are?

Our over the hill seniors seem to be slowing down more and more (were never particularly fast), whilst theirs (also not fast) are able to maintain and look as good as they did for the last few season.

Lets hope our new fitness peeps can help out in that matter!

Yeah, would be interesting.

Gibson, Lake and Mitchell all played less than 17 games for the year so come finals were maybe a bit fresher and Burgoyne and Hodge, statistically had close to career best years and all were fit and firing for the finals. On the contrary, our second best ball winner, Johnson, had injuries and didn't play, Stokes never really found form again after being injured and we lost Bundy on top of that. Their 3 biggest ball winners were ripe, ours were out or out of form. Doesn't help the cause.

Not saying we could have beaten them but would've made a significant difference if those 3 were ready to go for us.

 

[Footy Smarts]

It's not almost certain to happen next year. All those players are in their 30s, but they're still playing well. There's nothing to suggest a radical drop-off will occur. They've managed their veterans very well over the last couple of years so that they're peaking during finals time, as opposed to all getting injured and looking slow and terrible during the finals, which has been the case with Geelong's veterans since 2011.

You don't need a radical drop off. They had 6 out of 6 all playing and in form. Realistically there's probably a 20% chance that a player over 31 is injured (perhaps more). So the chance that all of them are fit would be pretty small (~26% if they're on average 20% chance to be injured).

But they all happened this year to be playing something close to career best form. Look at their finals:

QF - All of Mitchell, Hale, Lake, Hodge and Gibson would've been in their best 8 player (along with Hill, Birchall and maybe Gunston/Shiels).
PF - All of Hodge, Mitchell and Hale would've been in their best 6 players.
GF - All of Mitchell, Lake, Hodge, Gibson and Burgoyne would've been in their best 8 players.

That's unreal form from guys over 30. Basically it's unlikely that they'll all be fit and it's very unlikely that if they're fit they'll be playing as well as this year. They just happened to have every one of them not just fit but in ripping form which requires great planning but also a hell of a lot of luck.

The major difference between our veterans and theirs is the reliance on them and the positions they play. It's a fair bit easier for Gibson and Burgoyne to dominate out of defence when they've got Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis killing it in midfield. If we had Johnson dominating midfield I bet Kelly and Enright would've looked better. Same with Lonergan at full back compared to Lake. Bartel as a 3rd forward isn't likely to change the course of a game unless he moves into midfield like he did against the Hawks and was brilliant.

When you look at likely improvement or drop off next year you'd expect the senior players from hawthorn to get worse. It's almost impossible for them to improve on close to career best output and history suggests it's highly unlikely more than 2 of them will match their performances now they're over 31. In contrast our senior players are coming off a low base so in terms of finals performances they're not going to slip much. But then we've got Caddy, Horlin-Smith and Guthrie as key cogs who we expect should improve. Add in a returning Christensen and Johnson and our midfield looks far more dangerous.

I'm not saying we're going to shoot up the ladder or that the Hawks will crash. But expecting the same performances from the Hawks' senior players is unrealistic. There are also more players playing in more important roles who should improve for Geelong. I think it's reasonable to expect the gap between us and Hawthorn next year to be less than what there was in finals.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think with Clark arriving and no sign of Mcintosh or Simpson leaving you can forget about another ruck coming in.

Like it or not, they just don't see that as a priority. They have a huge amount of faith in Blicavs and I think they believe one of Mcintosh, Vardy or Simpson can fill the other spot.

I don't think it is a very good move to be honest, but we are a little tied with having these four (Mcintosh, Vardy, Simpson, Clark) already on our list.

I think the back up will come through a rookie list state league pick.

I do worry if any lessons have been taken out of our finals loss at all.

But...you could apply the exact same logic to dismiss Geelong going after Frawley, couldn't you? Frawley doesn't seem like a perfect fit for us, until one of Lonergan or Rivers retires. But he's 26 and he's available.

 

[Boxhead_31]

Luke Lowden might be a good pick up, a ruckman that has had a fair bit of development put into him already and is ready to continue his career elsewhere but who will not cost a massive amount to get.

24yo - 204cm -102kgs

 

[GFrost]

Luke Lowden might be a good pick up, a ruckman that has had a fair bit of development put into him already and is ready to continue his career elsewhere but who will not cost a massive amount to get.

24yo - 204cm -102kgs

There were whispers earlier that Geelong were interested. However this was in the paper today:

Melbourne ruck/forward Mitch Clark wants to get to Geelong, which means their interest in Lowden is likely to dissipate.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I'm not buying it, definitely not from Maher. I'll actually be surprised if he goes to Hawthorn, not that concerned though and almost want him to.

I'm still a masssive advocate for starting to back Kolo in a bit next year, if not only to give him less incentive to want a move to the GC. I think he's a very important player for us going forward.

I'm not against the idea, but I think the priority should be on Hamling. The clock is ticking there and I think if the club didn't expect him to make significant strides as a senior player in 2015, it should have just about been time to cut him loose. Unless injuries intervene, I'd be pretty disappointed if JH and JK don't make their senior debuts in 2015.

 

[Boxhead_31]

There were whispers earlier that Geelong were interested. However this was in the paper today:

I saw that an couldn't understand it, Dawson and Hamish have proven unfortunately that they can't be relied upon to get through a full season so we really don't have a number 1 ruck so our ruck stocks are Dawson, Hamish, Blitz, Walker and possibly Toohey (I'm not counting Vardy as a ruck because the way his hips are rucking is no longer a option for him imo)

 

[Footy Smarts]

I saw that an couldn't understand it, Dawson and Hamish have proven unfortunately that they can't be relied upon to get through a full season so we really don't have a number 1 ruck so our ruck stocks are Dawson, Hamish, Blitz, Walker and possibly Toohey (I'm not counting Vardy as a ruck because the way his hips are rucking is no longer a option for him imo)

Clark was in the AA squad as a ruck when at Brisbane. While I highly doubt he'd be our first option, if all of Simpson, McIntosh and Vardy are unavailable he's a very good fall-back. Also Vardy has been put in the ruck for some period every single time he's played for us. I'd say if he plays it's more likely to be as a ruckman than as a key forward.

 

[GFrost]

I saw that an couldn't understand it, Dawson and Hamish have proven unfortunately that they can't be relied upon to get through a full season so we really don't have a number 1 ruck so our ruck stocks are Dawson, Hamish, Blitz, Walker and possibly Toohey (I'm not counting Vardy as a ruck because the way his hips are rucking is no longer a option for him imo)

Perhaps they are planning to take body parts from Simpson, McIntosh, Clark, Vardy and combine into one fit ruckman? Although they'll probably muck it up and we'll end up with one with Dawson's back, Hamish's knee, Vardy's hips, and Clark's foot!

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Luke Lowden might be a good pick up, a ruckman that has had a fair bit of development put into him already and is ready to continue his career elsewhere but who will not cost a massive amount to get.

24yo - 204cm -102kgs

He presumably wants to go somewhere where he will be a permanent senior player. And I'm not sure we can guarantee that (actually, I'm pretty sure we can't). Lowden, to me, is one of those 'tweener' ruckmen that doesn't really interest me at all, with the club in its current situation (unless Simpson or McIntosh depart): too good to hang around in the VFL for a couple of years, but not good enough (or, at least, not proven) to automatically assume the #1 mantle.