2015 Membership Thread - Can we get 35,000

[TiAn_]

Historically, our membership only significantly increases with a deep finals run, then plateaus until the next deep finals run. Highly unlikely we'll exceed 30k until we're contending for a flag again.

Year Membership Numbers
2014 26,622
2013 30,209
2012 30,007
2011 29,710
2010 32,077
2009 28,215
2008 28,306
2007 28,725
2006 26,042
2005 21,974
2004 19,295
2003 21,260
2002 20,838
2001 19,085
2000 18,056
1999 20,491
1998 20,064
1997 15,054
1996 10,650
1995 12,212

 

[fargy]

Historically, our membership only significantly increases with a deep finals run, then plateaus until the next deep finals run. Highly unlikely we'll exceed 30k until we're contending for a flag again.

Year Membership Numbers
2014 26,622
2013 30,209
2012 30,007
2011 29,710
2010 32,077
2009 28,215
2008 28,306
2007 28,725
2006 26,042
2005 21,974
2004 19,295
2003 21,260
2002 20,838
2001 19,085
2000 18,056
1999 20,491
1998 20,064
1997 15,054
1996 10,650
1995 12,212

Membership numbers were definitely more than that last year. From memory around 31,000.

 

[TiAn_]

Membership numbers were definitely more than that last year. From memory around 31,000.

You're probably right. But my point is that based on historical trends we're unlikely to exceed 30k until we've had a decent finals run.

 

[Next Waiting]

I have said a lot over the years...re alternative member options.

I spent a lot of time in the states and they are in love with our game....

I have spoken to the senior marketing operations manager for the NFL yes NFL.....

I gave there name to our marketing guys in 2013 .... no call even made by us??? we don't need a 2 million dollar sponsor for 5 years....

It was an easy venture...

1.NFL logo are on our shorts
2.NFL offer add on memberships to team members for $35 American
3.They get free online downloads of every bulldog game.
4.They get a t-shirt and sticker
5.NFL clubs have over 10 million members

Say we picked up say 5% of there current members is yes 5000 members at $35 =WE s**t ON COLLINGWOOD

Now please send this to anyone you want at the club its free -I usually charge $500 an hour

Unbelievable

 

[Cudi]

Once again this week in the HS Sunday paper, not a mention of the Bulldogs but plenty about Carlton again. Whoever is looking after the Blues PR/media is doing a damn good job this off season.

There was plenty on our website last week about how the team is coming along, but surely the club could provide the journos with the same update opportunities to get some awareness out there to create interest and drive membership.

There is a double page spread in both papers today. HS actually has 3 pages on us.

 

[BRG93]

21,817

 

[Sharkey66]

Peter Gordon was just on 3aw and when asked, said 50000 was a realistic goal for 2019. Had some interesting comments on growth.

 

[Snake Livermore]

Peter Gordon was just on 3aw and when asked, said 50000 was a realistic goal for 2019. Had some interesting comments on growth.

Such as...

 

[dogwatch]

Historically, our membership only significantly increases with a deep finals run, then plateaus until the next deep finals run. Highly unlikely we'll exceed 30k until we're contending for a flag again.

Year Membership Numbers
2014 26,622 31,725
2013 30,209 30,211
2012 30,007
2011 29,710 32,125
2010 32,077 34,842
2009 28,215 28,590
2008 28,306
2007 28,725
2006 26,042
2005 21,974 21,975
2004 19,295
2003 21,260
2002 20,838
2001 19,085
2000 18,056
1999 20,491
1998 20,064
1997 15,054 15,064
1996 10,650
1995 12,212
1994 9,339
1993 11,478
1992 9,311
1991 9,598
1990 10,983
1989 5,168
1988 5,351
1987 3,452
1986 8,433
1985 8,030
1984 6,491

Membership numbers were definitely more than that last year. From memory around 31,000.

The above (in red where different) are the figures that I have. I've used a strike-through where there is a big discrepancy (2010, 2011 & 2014). I've also added another 12 years worth back to 1984. It's only for accuracy ... I agree with Tian re the need for sustained finals success to get another good spike in membership.

 

[dogwatch]

I just mapped the above membership figures against ladder position. There's not quite as strong a correlation as I had expected.

Blue columns = membership tally
Brown line = ladder ranking (0-100% of other teams below us)
Dotted line = cutoff ranking to play in the finals

Summary:
We played in the finals series 12 times in those 31 years (38.7%), a rate only marginally worse than average for the AFL (42.1%). *
And we reached the third week of September 7 times (22.6%), a rate that is also only marginally worse than average for the AFL (23.8%). *
But no fourth week of September and no flags.

* In fact until McCartney became coach we were doing better than the AFL average on both of these stats since 1984 ... but let's not go there!

 

[Super Hans]

Would of liked to of been a member in the past, but never really had the money. Just singed up for 2015.

 

[dogwatch]

I presume all current members got one of these from PG.

I would like to personally thank you for you commitment to our Club this year with your 2015 membership purchase.

Your membership directly contributes to the future success of our Club and we value your contribution greatly.

To thank you for your support and for securing your membership before the start of the season, we are going to mark your name down on our Wall of Honour so it is displayed proudly at our spiritual home, Victoria University Whitten Oval.

The Wall of Honour will be placed in our Heritage Museum, just a stone's throw away from the '54 Premiership Cup so your name will be in good company among our Club's proud history.

If you haven't yet signed up, do so before the season starts and you might go on the WoH too... WooHoo!

 

[Doggies7]

Would of liked to of been a member in the past, but never really had the money. Just singed up for 2015.

Your photo <<< is perfect to describe how we are all replying to that post right now

 

[TiAn_]

I just mapped the above membership figures against ladder position. There's not quite as strong a correlation as I had expected.
View attachment 109912
Blue columns = membership tally
Brown line = ladder ranking (0-100% of other teams below us)
Dotted line = cutoff ranking to play in the finals

Summary:
We played in the finals series 12 times in those 31 years (38.7%), a rate only marginally worse than average for the AFL (42.1%). *
And we reached the third week of September 7 times (22.6%), a rate that is also only marginally worse than average for the AFL (23.8%). *
But no fourth week of September and no flags.

* In fact until McCartney became coach we were doing better than the AFL average on both of these stats since 1984 ... but let's not go there!

A better indicator than raw membership figures would be the annual % increase/decrease in membership against ladder position.

 

[dogwatch]

A better indicator than raw membership figures would be the annual % increase/decrease in membership against ladder position.

Funny you should mention that. I was looking at the chart yesterday and thinking the same thing.
I'll see what I can do.

 

[dogwatch]

Here we go...

The correlation between ladder position and membership change is more evident in this format, especially after the fightback era (say 1991 onwards):

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Here we go...

The correlation between ladder position and membership change is more evident in this format, especially after the fightback era (say 1991 onwards):

View attachment 110545

love your data Dogwatch - it looks like a pretty similar trend - its just a bit hard to see exactly when the membership % change goes negative

dont want to be a pain - could you do the Memb %Chg as Bars above and below the zero point, while maintaining the line trend of ladder position (if that possible)

 

[BRG93]

21,995

 

[Snake Livermore]

Here we go...

The correlation between ladder position and membership change is more evident in this format, especially after the fightback era (say 1991 onwards):

View attachment 110545

Nice one dogwatch. I love a good graph. There is a good correlation between ladder position for the season and change in membership. However ladder position is determined at the end of the season, and memberships are sold before and in the first half of a season. So how does this work, are our members psychic?

What I get from this graph is the importance of early performance on driving that membership change, and we've been shafted by our early season draws lately, and have another horror opening this year.

Why don't the AFL let the low ranked clubs all play themselves early on to drive up league wide excitement and member numbers?

That said, if we have a strong nab cup and pinch two of our first three, we could be still be looking at 35000 this year.

 

[dogwatch]

love your data Dogwatch - it looks like a pretty similar trend - its just a bit hard to see exactly when the membership % change goes negative

dont want to be a pain - could you do the Memb %Chg as Bars above and below the zero point, while maintaining the line trend of ladder position (if that possible)

As requested...

Nice one dogwatch. I love a good graph. There is a good correlation between ladder position for the season and change in membership. However ladder position is determined at the end of the season, and memberships are sold before and in the first half of a season. So how does this work, are our members psychic?

What I get from this graph is the importance of early performance on driving that membership change, and we've been shafted by our early season draws lately, and have another horror opening this year.

Why don't the AFL let the low ranked clubs all play themselves early on to drive up league wide excitement and member numbers?

That said, if we have a strong nab cup and pinch two of our first three, we could be still be looking at 35000 this year.

I've tagged some of the key milestones that I reckon had a bearing on membership. Clearly Fightback (leading into membership year 1990) was a huge one. Also the arrival of Barry Hall generated a lot of excitement, especially after we had made 2 consecutive PFs but seemed to be just missing a quality KPF. Bazza looked like he could make the difference in 2010 but it wasn't to be.

I don't think members are psychic, but they are pretty smart. Every club sells hope in the off season but usually supporters can tell pretty early on if there is some real chemistry happening. A lot of memberships do get sold in April and if you can impress in those early games it will do wonders for membership. I think you can see that happened in 1997 (along with the arrival of Wallace and the Smorgon regime) and again in 2005-2007. The anomalies seem to be 1992 (the forgotten PF) where the membership spike came the year AFTER and in 2008-09 but in those years I think we had already experienced the surge in optimism (2005-7) so there wasn't much more capacity for growth at that time.

The AFL does let lowly placed clubs play each other due to the seeding of the modern draw, although it won't guarantee you play every early game against another lowly ranked club. Besides, the fans will get a bit cynical if your only wins are against weak opposition. What will excite them is a win against a finals contender (eg if we beat either WCE or Richmond in R1 & 2).

 

[TiAn_]

As requested...
View attachment 110618

I've tagged some of the key milestones that I reckon had a bearing on membership. Clearly Fightback (leading into membership year 1990) was a huge one. Also the arrival of Barry Hall generated a lot of excitement, especially after we had made 2 consecutive PFs but seemed to be just missing a quality KPF. Bazza looked like he could make the difference in 2010 but it wasn't to be.

I don't think members are psychic, but they are pretty smart. Every club sells hope in the off season but usually supporters can tell pretty early on if there is some real chemistry happening. A lot of memberships do get sold in April and if you can impress in those early games it will do wonders for membership. I think you can see that happened in 1997 (along with the arrival of Wallace and the Smorgon regime) and again in 2005-2007. The anomalies seem to be 1992 (the forgotten PF) where the membership spike came the year AFTER and in 2008-09 but in those years I think we had already experienced the surge in optimism (2005-7) so there wasn't much more capacity for growth at that time.

The AFL does let lowly placed clubs play each other due to the seeding of the modern draw, although it won't guarantee you play every early game against another lowly ranked club. Besides, the fans will get a bit cynical if your only wins are against weak opposition. What will excite them is a win against a finals contender (eg if we beat either WCE or Richmond in R1 & 2).

That really reflects what I was thinking. If we don't get a sognificant boost in membership on the back of Bevo and some early wins this year we'll
probably be holding steady until finals are on the cards again.

 

[BRG93]

22,088

 

[TempletonTheRat]

As requested...
View attachment 110618

I've tagged some of the key milestones that I reckon had a bearing on membership. Clearly Fightback (leading into membership year 1990) was a huge one. Also the arrival of Barry Hall generated a lot of excitement, especially after we had made 2 consecutive PFs but seemed to be just missing a quality KPF. Bazza looked like he could make the difference in 2010 but it wasn't to be.

I don't think members are psychic, but they are pretty smart. Every club sells hope in the off season but usually supporters can tell pretty early on if there is some real chemistry happening. A lot of memberships do get sold in April and if you can impress in those early games it will do wonders for membership. I think you can see that happened in 1997 (along with the arrival of Wallace and the Smorgon regime) and again in 2005-2007. The anomalies seem to be 1992 (the forgotten PF) where the membership spike came the year AFTER and in 2008-09 but in those years I think we had already experienced the surge in optimism (2005-7) so there wasn't much more capacity for growth at that time.

The AFL does let lowly placed clubs play each other due to the seeding of the modern draw, although it won't guarantee you play every early game against another lowly ranked club. Besides, the fans will get a bit cynical if your only wins are against weak opposition. What will excite them is a win against a finals contender (eg if we beat either WCE or Richmond in R1 & 2).

Excellent work Dogwatch

It clearly defines two periods - pre and post 97 - the Smorgon/Wallace revival

Pre 97 the membership was quite fickle in that there were big swings with the teams success. In 1993 we had a nice jump but then in 1994 we lost about the same we gained the previous year.

Post 97 the membership base has been quite steady and shown more consistent growth - it still comes with swings, along with the teams performance, but not as dramatic; any negative swings are less often and much smaller in impact.


Predicting the future based on history we should be coming into a period of growth along with a climb up the ladder

10% growth each year for 4 years would lift membership to around 45,000.
IMHO 50,000 is very achievable by 2019

 

[Running Dog]

So how does this work, are our members psychic?

I used to be psychic, but I couldn't see any future in it, although that was in a past life.

 

[Tommycash]

Still ahead of last year, and hopefully this is the beginning of a bit of an acceleration.