List Mgmt. 2015 Trade, Draft, Rookie Draft and FA Megathread
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SaintLex
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BIG BOY MCEVOY
Kildonan
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Listed below are the players grouped in year of birth and the draft pick number (irrespective of year drafted).
The colours indicate the year drafted Red = 2014, Blue = 2013, Green = 2012, Pink = 2011
18: Patrick McCartin(#1), Hugh Goddard(#21), Daniel McKenzie(#22), Jack Lonie(#41), Brenton Payne(R#37)
19: Jack Billings(#3), Luke Dunstan(#18), Blake Acres(#19), Jack Sinclair(R#1) Eli Templeton(R#3)
20: Nathan Wright(#24), Spencer White(#25), Brodie Murdoch(#40), Josh Saunders(#43), Tim Membrey(#46), Lewis Pierce(#75)
21: Billy Longer(#8), Sebastian Ross(#21), Jack Newnes(#37), Jimmy Webster(#42), Darren Minchington(R#65)
22: Maverick Weller(GC preselection), Josh Bruce(GWS preselection), Daniel Markworth(#35), Arryn Siposs(#75), Tom Curren(R#24)
23: Tom Hickey(GC Qld zone selection), Dylan Roberton(#49), Tom Lee(#60), Shane Savage(#75)
24: Jack Steven(#42), Tom Simpkin(R#29), Cameron Shenton(R#30)
25: Ahmed Saad(GWS preselection), Luke Delaney(R#26), Jason Holmes(International Rookie)
26: David Armitage(#9), Jarryn Geary(R#58)
27:
28: Farren Ray(#4), Sam Gilbert(#33)
29:
30+: Nick Riewoldt(#1), Sean Dempster(#34), Leigh Montagna(#37), Sam Fisher(#55), Adam Schneider*(#60)
In the last 4 years we have turned over the vast majority of our list. In doing this turnover they have brought in a large number of players who were early round selections. Not every selection will be successful. Already some of the players we recruited in these four drafts have been delisted, and there will be more to come.
In 2011 / 2012 / 2013 we addressed two needs, we needed to bring in talent and we needed to address the age disparity.
That phase seems to have been addressed and now we are simply going all out for top end talent.
The focus on obtaining 50% more picks in the first three rounds may be there, but the larger plan of regenerating our list has been achieved without adhering strictly to a formula.
One could argue that we obtained 5 players from the 2014 draft who fit the criteria (counting Membrey)
6 players from the 2013 draft fit the criteria (counting Weller and Bruce)
6 players from 2012 draft (counting Hickey and Roberton) that's 17 players already and that was after a pretty good effort in 2011 where 4 players were drafted who fit the formula (arguably more because Saad and Milera were preselected by GWS and traded to us)
The recruiters have given our club a real boost by rebuilding so quickly.
The accelerated list turnover has slowed and I expect that the club will turn players over at a more natural pace (whilst still trying to maximise their picks in the first three rounds).
The talent is already here (and yeah - there is more to come). The next important step is in the hands of the coaches, the fitness staff and the senior players.
felsty
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Completely agree Kildo! Good summary as well
The only thing is, that once an early pick player has been drafted, not been overly successful and then traded at a later pick, their former early draft pick status is irrelevant.
We know for sure ( ultimate example ) that Tambling wasn't worth a first round pick when he went to Adelaide, ( Richmond were lucky with what they got ) and now he's not worth a spot on a list.
So for players like Longer, Membrey, and Ray their original pick status is not something for consideration.
very well said and worked out
Kildonan
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Agree with this. Have always thought that the draft pick a player is drafted at becomes irrelevant the day after the draft. They are now on a list and have to earn their stripes by hard work, achieving goals set by the coaches and learning to become part of a team.
A player brought in from elsewhere is not necessarily appropriately evaluated by the draft pick he was originally obtained with. If you accept that then you can also appreciate that some players are now more appropriately evaluated more highly that their original draft pick. An example is Luke Delaney who is surely more value to our club than the rookie pick he was originally drafted with. It works both ways. Some players taken with early picks may not retain that high draft value but others taken with a late pick are possibly worth an earlier draft pick now.
It also makes a mockery of some of the "free agency" value calculations. Not sure that Tom Scully will ever be worth the compensation he generated.
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Amazing how many hand outs the Dees have had.
Scully = Ablett and Frawley > Buddy were both insane. I understand that is just the way the system works but you cant tell me the AFL didnt bump up the compo a little to try and get Melbourne out of their rut.
If the exact same thing happened to North they would have already been relocated to Hobart.
Scully = Ablett and Frawley > Buddy were both insane. I understand that is just the way the system works but you cant tell me the AFL didnt bump up the compo a little to try and get Melbourne out of their rut.
If the exact same thing happened to North they would have already been relocated to Hobart.
Of course the compensation (at least now regarding Free Agency & not the GC/GWS list building scheme) is all based on the contract value & length.
Hence how ridiculous the 'Frawley is not worth pick 3' hysteria was. His contract was worth a band 1 compo pick...& due to the Dees being rubbish that resulted in pick 3.
That's a good summary Kildonian, and I've already said before I think it was kind of an error of the club to put an exact number to their aim.
But it's important to remember they made the statement in 2013, post-season. So by then they were saying widescale list regeneration even with the 2011 + 2012 guys in place. They probably already had a good idea by then of what they have in Newnes, Webster, Murdoch etc. And with that in mind, they decided they still needed better players. Not just younger players, but they specifically wanted to target players from the sharp end of the draft.
However, Eli was a bonus. Weller I think also a bonus. Longer was a bonus (looked very likely they were gonna go with Jolly as backup ruck before Billy became available).
I even think Delaney might be a bonus as I got the feeling they brought him in as a stop-gap, just a handy lump, but he's turned out to be very useful and potentially has enough good years left in him that he'd be in the team once the rise happens.
This is why a) putting a number on picks was an error, you gotta be flexible and react, and b) why I still feel the club is on the hunt for a couple more top 15 players - they will replace probably Siposs and Simpkin this year. Schneider too, and is Joey signed for 2016? Markworth and Minchington both got only 1yr deals, so either of those might be dropped if they don't show something this year.
I think we don't just want to replace those guys with the natural flow of the draft. Other clubs get the same number of picks as us, if not more. And benefit from academy and fs picks. So we gotta be ahead of that curve. Replace 5 guys with 1 senior body and 4 picks in the top 35 selections (2 of them from the first 15 or so). That's the plan for this year I reckon.
But it's important to remember they made the statement in 2013, post-season. So by then they were saying widescale list regeneration even with the 2011 + 2012 guys in place. They probably already had a good idea by then of what they have in Newnes, Webster, Murdoch etc. And with that in mind, they decided they still needed better players. Not just younger players, but they specifically wanted to target players from the sharp end of the draft.
However, Eli was a bonus. Weller I think also a bonus. Longer was a bonus (looked very likely they were gonna go with Jolly as backup ruck before Billy became available).
I even think Delaney might be a bonus as I got the feeling they brought him in as a stop-gap, just a handy lump, but he's turned out to be very useful and potentially has enough good years left in him that he'd be in the team once the rise happens.
This is why a) putting a number on picks was an error, you gotta be flexible and react, and b) why I still feel the club is on the hunt for a couple more top 15 players - they will replace probably Siposs and Simpkin this year. Schneider too, and is Joey signed for 2016? Markworth and Minchington both got only 1yr deals, so either of those might be dropped if they don't show something this year.
I think we don't just want to replace those guys with the natural flow of the draft. Other clubs get the same number of picks as us, if not more. And benefit from academy and fs picks. So we gotta be ahead of that curve. Replace 5 guys with 1 senior body and 4 picks in the top 35 selections (2 of them from the first 15 or so). That's the plan for this year I reckon.
bsk2002
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2011 Draft outcome is almost more up in the air than recent drafts.
Every player could go either way. Ross, Markworth, Newnes, Webster. You can bank that Newnes will at least be a solid contributor. Couldn't lock in much else.
I think Ross is a season away from asserting his future. I like the cut of his jib. I think he'll just slowly get better and better.
Newnes can be a wicked kick when he's sweeping/rebounding, and is super hard at it. Seasoning into a Hodge style half-back, with a similar ruthless approach from a naturally leader, would be alright. Stints in the middle to assert his aggression once he's filled out.
Looking at the midfield, I'm really not sold on Saunders, Weller, Curren or Minchington. Realistically, I'm hoping for one of those to become a 200 game player, coming on massively through hard work over 3-4 years. I'd put my money on Saunders out of those mentioned.
They all seem to be ultra hard workers. The first three have no damaging side to their game.
I'm not keen on Geary either, but see his place for now.
Every player could go either way. Ross, Markworth, Newnes, Webster. You can bank that Newnes will at least be a solid contributor. Couldn't lock in much else.
I think Ross is a season away from asserting his future. I like the cut of his jib. I think he'll just slowly get better and better.
Newnes can be a wicked kick when he's sweeping/rebounding, and is super hard at it. Seasoning into a Hodge style half-back, with a similar ruthless approach from a naturally leader, would be alright. Stints in the middle to assert his aggression once he's filled out.
Looking at the midfield, I'm really not sold on Saunders, Weller, Curren or Minchington. Realistically, I'm hoping for one of those to become a 200 game player, coming on massively through hard work over 3-4 years. I'd put my money on Saunders out of those mentioned.
They all seem to be ultra hard workers. The first three have no damaging side to their game.
I'm not keen on Geary either, but see his place for now.
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karaoke
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gringo2011
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I see Newness more of a Montagna type, quiet achiever who you don't notice racking up numbers. He's a very good at everything but not exceptional at anything to me. Should play 200 games barring injury though. Webster is more likely to be a Hodge to me, has a few very good traits like second and third efforts and a hatred of losing the ball. Has that slightly crazy aggression too. If he makes it there are some great qualities there. I agree Saunders is the most likely to make it up to a high standard of those guys. His pace and tank make him a very handy respect. Ross is a slow burn but looks like his trajectory has been very even and where you would expect. Weller is the type coaches love as he can do a role. Might never be more than a tagger but still looks likely to play 100+ games even at current output. Minchington and Curren are to early to tell. Curren isn't as good taken away from that mid forward role he played in the VFL. Could be a victim of too many in the same spot with Billings, Saunders, Minch, Saad, Lonie, Membery and even Siposs all likely to want a spot as a forward who could take a bit of a run on ball every now and then.
Geary to me is a lock, plays hard and the disposal quality is often overstated. He seriously improves our senior team along side a fit Armo, Steven, Montagna, Gilbert and Fisher. Along side another strong year from Rooey that is the difference between competitive games and absolute thrashings.
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Saunders is more likely to succeed than Webster?
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He meant most likely to be elite. I dont know whatbhis kicking is like though
bsk2002
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Out of Saunders, Weller, Curren and Minchington.
Watching our rd 18 game vs Freo, Newnes' first half stood out. He was ruthless at the man and the ball. He can crunch packs, and intercept aerial contests as a 3rd man up with brute force. Bit taller than say a Montagna, and potentially a better sweeping kick to advantage. Some of his low bullets were class, and took me by surprise.
Webster I am unsure of, I've mostly liked the look of him when he's attacking the forward half of the ground. Lacks a bit of defensive wit.
Geary I respect and he's definitely needed. I'm just not big on players like himself and Gilbert's disposal and nervousness with the ball, can be hit or miss, and often infectious across the board. Opposition light up when they know such players are off their game. They turn into bully mode and their energy levels sky-rocket.Think Geary is a very average player. Got plenty of time for Gilbert, for the most part.
Really hoping Goddard II soaks in a lot of Fisher's calmness and sensibility.
Damn Sam Fisher is just a sick player when fit. That reliability and smarts, speaking of infectious...
Watching our rd 18 game vs Freo, Newnes' first half stood out. He was ruthless at the man and the ball. He can crunch packs, and intercept aerial contests as a 3rd man up with brute force. Bit taller than say a Montagna, and potentially a better sweeping kick to advantage. Some of his low bullets were class, and took me by surprise.
Webster I am unsure of, I've mostly liked the look of him when he's attacking the forward half of the ground. Lacks a bit of defensive wit.
Geary I respect and he's definitely needed. I'm just not big on players like himself and Gilbert's disposal and nervousness with the ball, can be hit or miss, and often infectious across the board. Opposition light up when they know such players are off their game. They turn into bully mode and their energy levels sky-rocket.Think Geary is a very average player. Got plenty of time for Gilbert, for the most part.
Really hoping Goddard II soaks in a lot of Fisher's calmness and sensibility.
Damn Sam Fisher is just a sick player when fit. That reliability and smarts, speaking of infectious...
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Agreed. Hopefully gets a full season this year, I've really enjoyed watching him play so far.
karaoke
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I've said before I see Newnes as our version of James Kelly, won't be an absolute superstar (ie Selwood, SJ or Bartel) but will hold his own in his role year in year out.
Hmm, it's an interesting one. I get that he doesn't have blistering pace or any specific skill that screams that he will be a superstar. Usually, he just quietly goes about his business but with his excellent disposal and good movement around the ball I could see him being a Dal Santo-type replacement (maybe a bit less of an outside player though). Obviously he needs to get insert himself into games a bit more on a consistent basis but he keeps a cool head when under pressure and seems to pick players out with the perfect kick at the right time. Not saying he's necessarily going to have as good of a career as Dal Santo but he does give us quite a bit to work with and I wouldn't be surprised if he starts averaging well over 20 disposals a game pretty soon (and good disposals).
THe AFL have to help clubs lower down the ladder, yes Frawley was not worth a number 3 pick but with 18 teams in the league how on earth are you going to go up the ladder when you have 2 picks inside the top 40. I would like to see lower clubs get more picks in the top 10 to even the comp.
Persevering Saint
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I think we forget how damaging TC was in the early period last year as a tagger. I also think that he was asked to play those roles on opposition gun-players, because the club expects him to emulate them in the future.
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We can only hope.
Periphery
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There is talk on the Freo board that Crozier might want to return to Vic at the end of next year (rumors started after he apparently bought a house in Elwood).
I don't know enough about him, so what are all your thoughts? Was pick 20 in the 2011 draft and has played 21 games so far.
If any Freo supporters see this feel free to add any insights you have.
I don't know enough about him, so what are all your thoughts? Was pick 20 in the 2011 draft and has played 21 games so far.
If any Freo supporters see this feel free to add any insights you have.
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