List Mgmt. 2015 Trade, Draft, Rookie Draft and FA Megathread

[Kilroy]

.... It doesn't explain what will happen if Sydney still wanted to pick up Jack Hiscox last year. They used pick 38 last year, but under this new system they wouldn't have pick 38 cause of Heeney. Do they use whatever their next pick is and just keep subtracting till they run out of picks and it starts being deducted from the next years picks?

Presumably Sydney would realise at some point that they don't want him that much.

....I think the most controversial part of the proposal is how they came up with the draft picks values.

Sudoku?

 

[Periphery]

Its actually pretty simple. Club A nominates an academy or f/s selection like normal then the other clubs bid on that player like normal. When Club B bids for the player then then Club A has to make up what that pick is worth using their later picks in the draft as according to the AFL's valuations of draft picks. I'm assuming if Club A chooses not to then Club B gets the player for the previously bidden pick.

Only part of that system I disagree with is how it can effect future drafts. Theoretically every club has a near infinite number of draft picks in every draft so all those later draft picks should be used to make up the compensation.

I think the most controversial part of the proposal is how they came up with the draft picks values.

This link has more info: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-01-27/new-player-bidding-system-close

This scale was based on data relating to the average player salaries of each pick from the year 2000 onwards.

Seems alright. The points system developed on this blog http://hurlingpeoplenow.tumblr.com/post/98964610922/hpn-draft-pick-trade-value-chart-v1 uses the games played for each draft pick over a decent period to come up with it's values. I haven't graphed it out but I'd guess it will follow a similar curve to the one the AFL came up with.

I think it needs to effect future picks. Clubs don't have a near infinite number of picks cause the system only values the first 74. If a club has 2 highly rated prospects coming through (like Sydney does next year) and they finish high on the ladder? The first one wipes out the majority of the value from their current year picks, so they need to pay from future years to make it work.

There's a small benefit to all the non academy clubs in that with picks being effectively removed from the draft and being devalued then their picks move up the order slightly. If enough of this happens you could see some decent movement from picks in the 40s.

 

[Navy2005]

I think what we need now especially with our decision to go for a tall forward in McCartin as no 1 is now to target a quality midfielder. If there is any chance we can still do a trade or organise something with Richmond for Dustin Martin I think he would be ideal. Has pace, kicks goals and takes abit of the pressure off the like of Montagna and Stevens. Would be a g
reat asset if at all possible.

 

[SK_MD_#7]

I think what we need now especially with our decision to go for a tall forward in McCartin as no 1 is now to target a quality midfielder. If there is any chance we can still do a trade or organise something with Richmond for Dustin Martin I think he would be ideal. Has pace, kicks goals and takes abit of the pressure off the like of Montagna and Stevens. Would be a g
reat asset if at all possible.

We could have had him at the end of 2013 if i recall? but passed on the opportunity or something.

 

[TN25]

I think what we need now especially with our decision to go for a tall forward in McCartin as no 1 is now to target a quality midfielder. If there is any chance we can still do a trade or organise something with Richmond for Dustin Martin I think he would be ideal. Has pace, kicks goals and takes abit of the pressure off the like of Montagna and Stevens. Would be a g
reat asset if at all possible.

Darcy Parish?

 

[Ekomaira]

Darcy Parish?

I don't know anything about the kid, but I hope we get him purely based on his name. It's a beauty

 

[TN25]

I don't know anything about the kid, but I hope we get him purely based on his name. It's a beauty

There's a lot more to like about him than his name

 

[BrianSpeaking]

I think what we need now especially with our decision to go for a tall forward in McCartin as no 1 is now to target a quality midfielder. If there is any chance we can still do a trade or organise something with Richmond for Dustin Martin I think he would be ideal. Has pace, kicks goals and takes abit of the pressure off the like of Montagna and Stevens. Would be a g
reat asset if at all possible.

He's no chance, we have based our recruiting on talent and character, so DM will be staying at Richmond.
I can say however that this years draft is an absolute pearler at the top end, me thinks we get a certain future All Australian.

 

[Ekomaira]

There's a lot more to like about him than his name

Yeah from what I've read from a few blokes is he'll be one of the guys contending for the top pick next year. Looking forward to watching some of his highlights

 

[TN25]

Yeah from what I've read from a few blokes is he'll be one of the guys contending for the top pick next year. Looking forward to watching some of his highlights

He's top of my list ATM

 

[karaoke]

Yep, we need more Vic Country boys,

Darcy Tucker is a pretty good name too.

(Has it been mentioned Tucker is a Saints supporter? .............)

 

[AFLOnline]

Anyone still confident Gillon will get us a PP?

We could take Tucker AND Parish... Or even Mathieson.

 

[gringo2011]

He's no chance, we have based our recruiting on talent and character, so DM will be staying at Richmond.
I can say however that this years draft is an absolute pearler at the top end, me thinks we get a certain future All Australian.

Big call, I don't know how you can judge the AA thing at this stage. At this point last year Hugh Goddard was the probable number 1 pick.

 

[gringo2011]

Anyone still confident Gillon will get us a PP?

We could take Tucker AND Parish... Or even Mathieson.

I'm not even confident we will finish last. A few teams are going to be ordinary this year and if we keep injuries low we have the potential to lift ourselves off the bottom.

 

[AFLOnline]

I'm not even confident we will finish last. A few teams are going to be ordinary this year and if we keep injuries low we have the potential to lift ourselves off the bottom.

And if we do finish on the bottom with <5 wins as predicted? Surely we have to be a very good chance for a PP, even if it's at the end of first round.

 

[Rors]

Gillon to do us a solid & at least give us a PP at the end of 1st round. I'd be happy enough with that.

#1 + #19 + #20

or if Jack Steven leaves:

#1 + #2 + #20

I hate Jack to go, but I think i'd still sleep well at night if this happens

 

[Mitchell54]

I think what we need now especially with our decision to go for a tall forward in McCartin as no 1 is now to target a quality midfielder. If there is any chance we can still do a trade or organise something with Richmond for Dustin Martin I think he would be ideal. Has pace, kicks goals and takes abit of the pressure off the like of Montagna and Stevens. Would be a g
reat asset if at all possible.

I think he is a free agent in 2016.

Offer him 500K a year and you might get him.
Richmond are paying him 480K per year.

 

[Persevering Saint]

We are in the running, but Melbourne, bulldogs, west coast, Carlton and controlling could all surprise with their ineptness this year.
And StKilda potentially have an all Australian back line.

I agree, I think a backline with Fisher, Dempster, Geary, Gilbert, Webster, Delaney, Wright, Savage is actually going to be more formidable than people think.

 

[gringo2011]

Gillon to do us a solid & at least give us a PP at the end of 1st round. I'd be happy enough with that.

#1 + #19 + #20

or if Jack Steven leaves:

#1 + #2 + #20

I hate Jack to go, but I think i'd still sleep well at night if this happens

It's a very dangerous gamble. Frawley was worth pick 2 but the AFL could easily decide that the effect of giving up pick 2 for the bottom teams best players encourages them to sell up their best which unbalances lists. We could get a pick after our second pick again and there is no way to know until it's done.

I think the priority pick is gone. If we win 5 games in total over 2 seasons thats another story but I hope we don't get to that. Losing Jack loses us our second biggest marquee player, loses momentum, loses another in the mid career age bracket which we don't have enough of and generally says to the list that anyone is expendable. It would be extremely poor management to me. You keep your best and add to it not jump on a cycle of flogging everyone off for another potential star.

Unless Jack says he won't stay we need to pay him what he's offered elsewhere. He's a restricted FA so he is more than likely staying anyway.

 

[gringo2011]

I agree, I think a backline with Fisher, Dempster, Geary, Gilbert, Webster, Delaney, Wright, Savage is actually going to be more formidable than people think.

Don't forget Shenton was in the best few players on multiple weeks too, Roberton couldn't get his ankles right after a stellar year in 2013 and Farren Ray probably had his most consistent year for us last year. Simpkin probably won't see seniors again either with those guys all in front of him.

 

[Defacto]

Not sure if this had been touched on, but ameet is on the panel that has come up with the revised model

Shows how respected he is by the AFL and other clubs when it comes to the list management stuff.

Also great for us as he'll have a better understanding of it, in theory

 

[Stewart66]

Gillon to do us a solid & at least give us a PP at the end of 1st round. I'd be happy enough with that.

#1 + #19 + #20

or if Jack Steven leaves:

#1 + #2 + #20

I hate Jack to go, but I think i'd still sleep well at night if this happens


Prefer keep Steven go very hard at Sloane ...keep 1st rounder myself build the list

 

[Rors]

What would you offer to get Sloane?

To get Sloane, we'd either have to risk no-one trading with us for years by somehow getting him agree to go into the PSD, or give up our 1st pick, or 2nd round pick & say a Jack Newnes

We'd have to be paying overs to get Sloane out of Adelaide IMO

 

[Periphery]

2nd round pick & say a Jack Newnes

No way that gets the deal done.

 

[hayes]

Some people on here are going to be really disappointed when we don't get the spoon this year.

Hoping, praying, fingers toes and everything crossed. I'd kill to avoid the bottom, surely our putrid luck with injury has to end at some point?