List Mgmt. 2015 Trade, Draft, Rookie Draft and FA Megathread

[aussierulesrules]

Big call, I don't know how you can judge the AA thing at this stage. At this point last year Hugh Goddard was the probable number 1 pick.

He'd be basing it on what those that are looking like being drafted really high in the next draft have shown so far in their junior careers, compared with those who have gone before them and how they performed at similar ages, with Mathieson and Parish in particular having performed terrifically well at the champs last year, despite being "underagers", which augurs well for their future prospects, plus what he's heard about how they are rated in club land. It's like how the likes of Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel, Jaegar O'Meara, Jack Martin, Brad Crouch and Jesse Hogan (who were all picked up a year younger than normal draft age) were all seen as "blue chip" a year out from being the usual draft age (as were others like Boyd, Billings, Josh Kelly and Stringer) and things are looking damn good for all of them so far, with none of them looking like "flops" and it looks like the likes of Mathieson, Parish and Mills are this year's versions of the aforementioned group, showing really elite attributes and performing week after week.

As for Goddard, it wasn't this time last year that he was widely considered a probable number one pick this year, it was more like 18 months to 2-3 years ago. This time last year Paddy and Wright were the ones being talked up as really good chances to go no.1 and of course Paddy did end up going no.1.

My early tip is that you can pencil in one of Mathieson, Parish, Tucker or Wiedeman for pick 1 this year.

Should save our warchest for Shiel, Treloar, WHE, Prestia or O'Meara... 5-6 yr deal at $650k p.a should be enough IMO

That wouldn't be anywhere near enough for O'Meara and Treloar in particular. Every club in the comp would clear list space by delisting anyone they had to if they thought they could get either of those two for as little as that and we'd probably end up near the bottom of their preferred destinations list as a result.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

We were talking about free agents - not many 25 year old, 8 year players are going to want to join a team at the bottom of the ladder....

And on Boyd,

1) Boyd wasnt a Free Agent
2) Boyd signed a 7 year deal
3) Boyd is only 19
4) And remember, the Dogs did give up their Captain & pick 6 to do that deal

good we don't need them while we are on the bottom.
Wait until we are looking promising with our own recruits then grab someone.

 

[Rors]

He'd be basing it on what those that are looking like being drafted really high in the next draft have shown so far in their junior careers, compared with those who have gone before them and how they performed at similar ages, with Mathieson and Parish in particular having performed terrifically well at the champs last year, despite being "underagers", which augurs well for their future prospects, plus what he's heard about how they are rated in club land. It's like how the likes of Adam Treloar, Dylan Shiel, Jaegar O'Meara, Jack Martin, Brad Crouch and Jesse Hogan (who were all picked up a year younger than normal draft age) were all seen as "blue chip" a year out from being the usual draft age (as were others like Boyd, Billings, Josh Kelly and Stringer) and things are looking damn good for all of them so far, with none of them looking like "flops" and it looks like the likes of Mathieson, Parish and Mills are this year's versions of the aforementioned group, showing really elite attributes and performing week after week.

As for Goddard, it wasn't this time last year that he was widely considered a probable number one pick this year, it was more like 18 months to 2-3 years ago. This time last year Paddy and Wright were the ones being talked up as really good chances to go no.1 and of course Paddy did end up going no.1.

My early tip is that you can pencil in one of Mathieson, Parish, Tucker and Wiedeman for pick 1 this year.

That wouldn't be anywhere near enough for O'Meara and Treloar in particular. Every club in the comp would clear list space by delisting anyone they had to if they thought they could get either of those two for as little as that and we'd end up near the bottom of their preferred destinations as a result.

Well give them more then...

9 years, $10 million enough?

 

[God Save Max King]

i'm one who wont mind either way. if jack decides to leave, then good luck to him. i dont want a player who doesnt want to be part of the special thing we are building at the moment. this club will be absolutely radiating in 2-3 years time. sucks to be him if he chooses to pass on that. and like you said the talent will be too good to ignore

if he stays then great! we have another midfielder to build around

i cant see us losing on this

Say he goes, and is only offered a deal worthy of Band 2 Compensation, what happens then? I'd definitely say that we lost, and in fairness it wouldn't be a great look for the AFL if Steven's compensation ended up being a better pick than that for Dangerfield or Hawkins, even if they'd be in the same Band.

Re his injuries, he had an ankle and foot(?) injury early in his career, a foot issue last year, a thigh injury last year and I believe he's now on a limited pre-season.

Should save our warchest for Shiel, Treloar, WHE, Prestia or O'Meara... 5-6 yr deal at $650k p.a should be enough IMO

A 5 year, $4m deal for Treloar would give him a contract worthy of a top 10 player in the competition, which he (IMO) will become, but I'm more interested in WHE, 3.5m/5 would have put him in the top 20 highest paid players in 2014, something he couldn't refuse.

 

[SpannaMan]

Brisbane has had a go about the new academy and F/S rules here: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-01-28/bidding-changes-kneejerk

This is the part which I was talking about before:

He said if the proposed system were implemented, it would make it extremely difficult to take more than one academy player each year.

This would be solved if pick compensation did not go on to to future years. That way even if another Heeney type comes along the club can still make their 3 required draft picks using the academy without causing any major issues. Obviously a problem arises if the club gets 2 Heeney's in one year though... Maybe their should be a cap?

 

[Periphery]

it wouldn't be a great look for the AFL if Steven's compensation ended up being a better pick than that for Dangerfield or Hawkins, even if they'd be in the same Band.

The AFL's response would be exactly the same as it was for Frawley and for Buddy: That's just the way the system works.

 

[Defacto]

Say he goes, and is only offered a deal worthy of Band 2 Compensation, what happens then? I'd definitely say that we lost, and in fairness it wouldn't be a great look for the AFL if Steven's compensation ended up being a better pick than that for Dangerfield or Hawkins, even if they'd be in the same Band.

Re his injuries, he had an ankle and foot(?) injury early in his career, a foot issue last year, a thigh injury last year and I believe he's now on a limited pre-season.

A 5 year, $4m deal for Treloar would give him a contract worthy of a top 10 player in the competition, which he (IMO) will become, but I'm more interested in WHE, 3.5m/5 would have put him in the top 20 highest paid players in 2014, something he couldn't refuse.

Do you really think Steven would be band 2 compo... Seriously there's more chance of Pav being in pies colours next year

 

[sonnywalters]

Are we keen on this Darcy Parish kid?

 

[dewah07]

Are we keen on this Darcy Parish kid?

Nope, it's harly balic or bust

 

[sonnywalters]

Nope, it's harly balic or bust

Is Balic actually better than all of Parish, Schache, Ah Chee and Mathieson or do we like him cos hes a local?

 

[aussierulesrules]

Well give them more then...

9 years, $10 million enough?

You know what, if JOM was willing to come to us for those terms I'd give that a massive amount of thought and would probably do it no worries if it wasn't for the fact that we would probably have to give up our first pick in order to get him, which might not make it worth it if those expected to go around 1-3 in the next draft are a good chance to be somewhere near as good as him, but will cost us a fraction of the $ we'd have to pay JOM.

There is every chance that after the next TV rights deal salary caps will go up as much as double before long, so by say the 2nd half of a 10 year deal like that, it may be that every club will have one or maybe even two on their list who are on a mil a year, making O'Meara for $1.1mil a year pretty good value.

 

[God Save Max King]

Do you really think Steven would be band 2 compo... Seriously there's more chance of Pav being in pies colours next year

I'm just not sure about what the market will be like for Steven considering all the GWS/GCS talent uncontracted and Dangermans status. Who can you see offering him a 2.5m contract? Yes almost everyone will be overpaid in Free Agency, but it's something I worry about.

The AFL's response would be exactly the same as it was for Frawley and for Buddy: That's just the way the system works.

And I would agree with that response, but unfortunately there'd still be lashback from a) those in the media just trying to find something to criticise and b) fans who don't understand the system as a whole, in part due to the poor coverage by those same people in a.

ARR, two terrific posts again, however I'd say in my own personal opinion that Weitering and possibly Parsons will be in the conversation for #1, and that the next Collective Bargaining Agreement/TV rights deal in 2017 will have player salary more than double, but possibly with a greater spread in the TPP with draftee and rookie deals increasing greatly.

 

[ike2112]

My big doubt about Matt Finnis is the way he wanted "free agency" to benefit ALL players.
What it has done in benefiting the top few players to the detriment of all other average players was entirely predictable. Next they will be tinkering with single player caps to stop big stars using it all up.

Having said that I think it will settle down as some of the clubs signing players in huge long contracts get stung with injuries or poor form and stop offering buddy type deals.

I think he was pushing for NFL - style, everyone's a FA after 4 years style deal. And I think it'll happen within ten years.

That results in B-grade talent getting A-grade money because teams get desperate.

 

[dewah07]

Is Balic actually better than all of Parish, Schache, Ah Chee and Mathieson or do we like him cos hes a local?

Both questions yes, if theirs one thing I know it's my local talent of the past few drafts.

Avoid
Liam sumner
Taylor Grace
Tom lamb
Get
Harly balic

 

[Mindtraveller]

Is it possible to pay these players overs for the PSD or they won't do thatbto there current club?

 

[Stewart66]

Sloane will be contracted this year only chance Stkilda will get is end of year
Will not cost trade at all as is a restricted free agent end of this year.
He nominates 1 club and $ offered to Crows if they don't match he walks end of season.

Adelaide paying overs already Betts Walker and would need to pay Dangerfield crazy money to stay.

Finnis has already stated countless times they will pay overs short term .
Not saying he will leave just think best chance of end of this year
Otherwise Adelaide will contract him will not be free agent the following year.
This will allow them to stay the course drafting the best talent .

Anyway looking forward to this year and don't want to see them finish last myself

 

[Defacto]

I'm just not sure about what the market will be like for Steven considering all the GWS/GCS talent uncontracted and Dangermans status. Who can you see offering him a 2.5m contract? Yes almost everyone will be overpaid in Free Agency, but it's something I worry about.

And I would agree with that response, but unfortunately there'd still be lashback from a) those in the media just trying to find something to criticise and b) fans who don't understand the system as a whole, in part due to the poor coverage by those same people in a.

ARR, two terrific posts again, however I'd say in my own personal opinion that Weitering and possibly Parsons will be in the conversation for #1, and that the next Collective Bargaining Agreement/TV rights deal in 2017 will have player salary more than double, but possibly with a greater spread in the TPP with draftee and rookie deals increasing greatly.

He'll be a restricted free agent, one who actually loves his club, if he goes it's for big coin. There's no chance on band 2 as we'd match the offer during contract discussions so it'd never get to the point of him walking

 

[crasha301]

Would 5 million over 5 years front end loaded to the max be enough to get Sloane?
Is it to much? Could crows match that?

Would love if we could grab him amd happily let him have the captaincy after roo.

 

[Navy2005]

We could have had him at the end of 2013 if i recall? but passed on the opportunity or something.

A legacy of Scott Watters I believe. Hopefully one decision we can correct.

 

[Defacto]

A legacy of Scott Watters I believe. Hopefully one decision we can correct.

i think it was the correct one. lets remember taking dustin would have cost us our first rounder maybe our 2nd rounder at best, i dont think psd would have been an option.

that means we pass on one of billings or dunstan or acres

 

[dewah07]

Would 5 million over 5 years front end loaded to the max be enough to get Sloane?
Is it to much? Could crows match that?

Would love if we could grab him amd happily let him have the captaincy after roo.

With the new cap coming in a few years, theirs isn't as many incentives in front loading, I would be making whatever contract he wants I also wouldn't risk not getting someone because of how it would affect the current cap

 

[Periphery]

And I would agree with that response, but unfortunately there'd still be lashback from a) those in the media just trying to find something to criticise and b) fans who don't understand the system as a whole, in part due to the poor coverage by those same people in a.

All those people have been complaining since the start anyway and the AFL hasn't changed the system yet. If they do change it, it wont be because of those people but because of the mounting evidence that free agency is benefiting the top teams a lot more than the bottom. Either way, the compensation is allocated via salary and ladder position probably wouldn't be effected because the current compo benefits the lower teams.

the next Collective Bargaining Agreement/TV rights deal in 2017 will have player salary more than double, but possibly with a greater spread in the TPP with draftee and rookie deals increasing greatly.

What makes you think that? The AFL has publicly said it would like 1.7b for the next rights deal (up from 1.25b) and if they got that it's only an increase of 36%. Off the top of my head (I could be mistaken) the current share the players get is around 25% and there has been strong murmurings from the clubs that they can't afford to give up much more in the next CBA. Even if the players somehow got an increase to 33% that only results in an increase from $312m to $561m. That's all assuming that the AFL gets it's 1.7b figure when I think something less than that is more than likely and the players managing to negotiate a significant increase to their share.

Most of that is guess work of course, but I really can't see any situation where the TPP doubles with the next deals. I could easily see a 20-30% increase happening, which would still result in a $2-3m increase in the cap and would make the buddy and Boyd deals look a hell of a lot more reasonable. It'd make me very tempted to offer a BIG contract to a player or two this year.

 

[Mitchell54]

No way that gets the deal done.

He said their 1st pick, 2nd rounder ansd Jack Newnes.

 

[12Chill]

He said their 1st pick, 2nd rounder ansd Jack Newnes.

No he didn't. He said our first rounder OR our second rounder and Jack Newnes. If we give our first pick, second pick AND Newnes that's paying so far overs it's not even funny.

 

[Rors]

Sloane will be contracted this year only chance Stkilda will get is end of year
Will not cost trade at all as is a restricted free agent end of this year.
He nominates 1 club and $ offered to Crows if they don't match he walks end of season.

Adelaide paying overs already Betts Walker and would need to pay Dangerfield crazy money to stay.

Finnis has already stated countless times they will pay overs short term .
Not saying he will leave just think best chance of end of this year
Otherwise Adelaide will contract him will not be free agent the following year.
This will allow them to stay the course drafting the best talent .

Anyway looking forward to this year and don't want to see them finish last myself

Sloane is not a free agent at the end of this year, he's a free agent at the end of 2016