List Mgmt. 2015 Trade, Draft, Rookie Draft and FA Megathread

[hayes]

IMO Jacky Steven would have to make All Australian Team next season if he wants anywhere near $500,000

If Steven came to us and said he'd take 500k I'd be signing him up then and there before he changed his mind.

 

[STK2020]

I hope like hell Jacky wins a Brownlow ,
I think everyone is guided by one brilliant year and so far hasnt been fit enough to match it , hopefully 2015 is his year .
Having said that ....
If his Kpi's haven't been met then NO cash ,
And lets see what compo pick is offered .

 

[Fehring]

Does anyone have an idea of who's likely to be around at our first pick, 18?

 

[hayes]

I hope like hell Jacky wins a Brownlow ,
I think everyone is guided by one brilliant year and so far hasnt been fit enough to match it , hopefully 2015 is his year .
Having said that ....
If his Kpi's haven't been met then NO cash ,
And lets see what compo pick is offered .

It's not just one brilliant year, even this past season in what is seen as a very down year for him he was at the very least the equal of Armo if not better. If that's what he's going to produce in a down year then just imagine the upside. A compo draft pick doesn't come close to matching that.

 

[12Chill]

Jumping the gun by about 11 months or so...

2015 Draft
1 - Mathieson
2 - Parish (priority pick)

I'd take Parish and Tucker at this stage with picks 1 and 2 and hope Burton slides to 20. Would be a great outcome.

Jacob Weitering I'd keep a keen eye on too.

 

[STK2020]

[Qwouldn'tayes, post: 36402381, member: 56724"]It's not just one brilliant year, even this past season in what is seen as a very down year for him he was at the very least the equal of Armo if not better. If that's what he's going to produce in a down year then just imagine the upside. A compo draft pick doesn't come close to matching that.[/QUOTE]
I wouldnt mind Melbournes compo pick they recieved for Frawley . If we are talking mid to late 20's then NO way !

 

[SaintLex]

IMO Jacky Steven would have to make All Australian Team next season if he wants anywhere near $500,000

He's probably on around that at the moment. I mean, who else is eating up the 95% we have to pay?

 

[STK2020]

Tommy Lee

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

We might as well just sticky this thread as it is not going anywhere.

 

[Nutsngum]

Will still help his Adelaide sickness though

Bottled water should help with that.

 

[mighty sainters]

I'd take Parish and Tucker at this stage with picks 1 and 2 and hope Burton slides to 20. Would be a great outcome.

Jacob Weitering I'd keep a keen eye on too.

Tucker and Balic for me. TBH, the top 10 looks awesome this year, but unfortunately 3 of those are already spoken for

 

[ike2112]

Firstly, lol - great work.

Secondly, on the underspending thing. We will be able to have such a large dash at free agents that it is not funny. On top of the fact that we are pre-paying some of the younger players to get to the 95% minimum, Saints have chosen not to list any of its eligible veterans for the $113k payment outside of the cap. So that's an extra $500k ish extra that we can pay outside the cap in 2016 (Montagna, Roo, Ray, Fisher + Gilbert) on top of the $1M difference between paying 95% and 105%. So our war chest from free agency has to be somewhere in the vicinity of $1.5M to $2M. Cha ching

(sauce: http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-12-08/the-veterans-list)

The only fault really is that whilst we'd be essentially able by rule to overspend and go beyond the cap... our club is so riddled with debt that we cannot actually afford to do it. We're making a huge loss; paying out more isn't going to improve that.
Would we accept the club being defunct in 10yrs and place taken by a Tassie/NZ franchise as a price for winning a flag?

 

[ike2112]

Steven
Montagna (too old?)
Gilbert (too injury-prone?)
Hickey OR Longer
Geary
Newnes
Combo of fringe players (Lee, Bruce, Murdoch, Ross, Webster, other- do 2-4 B-Grade players make an A-Grade deal?).
I hope a number of these players are off-limits but my point is, do we even have an option for a "big trade" left on our list like the McEvoy deal? Steven might be the only obvious one left.
Keen to see what you all think from an opposition's point of view.

We might be able to spin Steven into a deal for two later 1st round picks. To be honest if he is going to leave, we want him to have a blinder of a season to get his value high - many Saints fans still have their doubts on him, so opposing scouts and fans will have too so clubs won't want to break the bank for him.
I think if I was Eddie, lost Beams and Swan not the factor he's been, I'd be looking at Steven. The Pies have picked up quite a few high draft picks, if 'Berg gets fit and is as good as expected, then a player like Steven is what they'd be after.
Geelong seems the place he might be want to head to, but I'm not sure if they'd be interested. Not sure its their style, they tend to go for more under-the-radar types in deals.

I suggested over a year ago that we'd probably only keep Hickey and Longer together for a couple years, and if both stayed fit, make a decision and deal one of them (just felt they're not flexible enough to play together). Not sure if that will play out, as Hickey hasn't stayed fit, so its a risk to deal Longer, and for other clubs it's a risk to trade with us for Hickey. But think that could be a discussion the club at least listens to if another club proposes something.

Cant see the club dealing Newnes, unless he continues to struggle in midfield and is cemented in as a HBF; maybe they consider us to have a surplus. In reality I think they expect 2 of Newnes, Savage, Webster etc to step it up in 2015 and become clearly better quality.

I actually think it'll be comp for Steven, maybe a deal for Longer if Hickey plays 20+ games and Longer wants a better shot elsewhere, and then someone like Saunders being dealt for a pick in the 30s.

 

[dewah07]

Tucker and Balic for me. TBH, the top 10 looks awesome this year, but unfortunately 3 of those are already spoken for

Welcome to the bandwagon

 

[ike2112]

The strategy isn't 3 first round picks.. If was improving selections IN THE FIRST THREE ROUNDS by a certain percentage until 2016 or some bullshit.

Increase number of picks in the first 3 rounds by 50% over 4 years. Statement made prior to 2013 draft.
So instead of 3 picks x 4 drafts = 12 picks
They wanted 18 picks in that period, on average 4.5 per draft.

Just talking picks:
2013
We turned McEvoy and our 2nd into two late-first-round picks (18 and 19)
We let Dal go to get us back into the 2nd round again, but then dealt that for Longer.
We had 3 picks in the first three rounds, but I'd include Longer because we were going to use that pick, then Longer being available and being considered great value, was a bonus.

2014
Turned Stanley and a 4th rounder into a 1st rounder
Used 4 picks.

So they're actually behind in their projection - they need 10 picks in the first 3 rounds in the next two drafts to meet it. I can't see that happening.

My view is that the original strategy was a complete clearing of the decks. People say that you cant rebuild if you give up your good players. But in reality, that can be countered with the suggestion that you cant rebuild quicker than all the other clubs (who by default get the same number of draft picks) unless you give up good players for extra picks.
I am pretty sure Pelchen would have wanted to move on Armo for the pick. He might even have wanted to forego Paddy and pick 1, if he could get a good enough deal (e.g two very high picks).

I think that when they published that statement, they expected to be drafting 6 kids in the first 50 this year, but that's not how its played out. That might well mean that we have not given up enough, or risked enough, to be able to rebuild enough (significantly more than other clubs). Or it may just be that some of the players on the list are reliable enough, and that the rookie draft is bringing us better than we thought, and that a deal like Delaney's working out for us is very handy.

 

[ike2112]

See, to me, that in itself is an argument for us getting a pick:
"Look how far we've fallen in 4 years. Look how many players we have retained from 2006-2010. Look at the dearth of high-end talent we have from the expansion era."
Just because we screwed up our drafting from the time before that, doesn't mean we should be automatically excluded from getting a PP, and when you consider that our best performers are still our older players, it certainly does present a good argument. The AFL aren't just going to let us wallow on the bottom of the ladder to "teach us a lesson"

And the counter to that is, that we did it to ourselves. We weren't victims of circumstance - we sold out fully on getting a flag, giving up picks for bit-part players. We should suffer for our short-sightedness and be a lesson to others...

 

[ike2112]

Hickey is streets ahead of longer IMO. Does a heap more around the ground. Wouldn't want to trade him. There is a difference between trading players of value and players who are your core going forward.

The interesting thing for me, is that Hickey's continued progression to being more than just a restarts ruckman, will make the difference to Longer's career. If Hickey expands his game, then Longer probably gets in the 22 more often. If he doesn't, then they're too similar and one of them isn't going to get a fair crack unless there's injuries.

 

[mighty sainters]

And the counter to that is, that we did it to ourselves. We weren't victims of circumstance - we sold out fully on getting a flag, giving up picks for bit-part players. We should suffer for our short-sightedness and be a lesson to others...

Yeah, but no one gets to the point where they actually need a priority pick without screwing up somewhere, and if the AFL isn't going to give a pick to a club that is deemed to have "done it to themselves", then they should scrap the pick altogether, because they'll always find an excuse to not give it to clubs.
Also, when can we say that it wasn't "us" who got ourselves into that position anyway? We've turned over every single position from a recruitment/development standpoint, changed CEO, President, all coaches, etc to the point where we're completely different in a management standpoint, which is where we screwed up in the first place.
Being on the bottom for longer is bad for business, both for the AFL and us, and if we win less than 5 games again this year (which is looking likely), they might just want to do something about it

 

[Barrels]

Welcome to the bandwagon

 

[Mindtraveller]

We might as well just sticky this thread as it is not going anywhere.

Who knows. We might win a few more games next year all this speculation about pick 1 will go to waste...

 

[hayes]

[Qwouldn'tayes, post: 36402381, member: 56724"]It's not just one brilliant year, even this past season in what is seen as a very down year for him he was at the very least the equal of Armo if not better. If that's what he's going to produce in a down year then just imagine the upside. A compo draft pick doesn't come close to matching that.

One draft pick would be enough for you? At best it's a lateral move, worst case we've lost a really good player for nothing. Surely it would take more?

 

[Barrels]

OI MODS.... Gimme back my damn thread!!

 

[dewah07]

OI MODS.... Gimme back my damn thread!!

Should of waited for 2015 like they said probs

 

[Barrels]

Should of waited for 2015 like they said probs

You shaddup.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Still not as ugly as Sadelaide.

Looks rather pretty today.