2015 Trade/FA Discussion (cont. in Pt.2)

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Bert Man

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Sucks that Bruce picked Stkilda over us. He's staring at the moment as the main forward.
We were never in the running for him. We had much bigger fish to fry with the GH5
 

theteamtobeat

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Any thoughts on Tim Mohr from GWS. GWS has a wealth of tall timber, plus the recent addition of Patfull might have him on the outer.

He's the same height and weight as Merrett, 195cm and 103kg key defender with 43 games next to his name.
 
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Any thoughts on Tim Mohr from GWS. GWS has a wealth of tall timber, plus the recent addition of Patfull might have him on the outer. He's 195cm 103kg key defender with 43 games next to his name.

He's pretty good, but like Clarke he probably needs some help in order to play against the best forwards, so not all that much of an upgrade.

The appeal of Rance would be that he can do a job on his opponent and help out his teammates.
 

Kevvo

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The other attractiveness of Rance is that he is fully developed right now, so we could reasonably front load his contract like crazy which seems like a good fit for where our salary cap is at right now.

It sounds like a ridiculous thing to say for a club in financial difficulty, but my guess is that we really need plausible targets who would allow us to take a bit bite out of our minimum spend for this year. Based on my understanding, we have come in well below 100 per cent of the cap in recent times (noting its only recently that we are under the three year rolling average) and really need to spend the cash one way or another, so its either a big name free agent or overpay some players.
 

jackess

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I think we have to offer Rance $750k/yr and a key forward $700k/yr whether it's Dixon or Carlisle or whoever and just hope like hell they want to come to us. The problem is there would be other clubs willing to offer them more so we're gonna struggle.
 
I think we have to offer Rance $750k/yr and a key forward $700k/yr whether it's Dixon or Carlisle or whoever and just hope like hell they want to come to us. The problem is there would be other clubs willing to offer them more so we're gonna struggle.

In which case wouldn't we offer them more as well - not for potential but matching the market value of a proven KPF (plus a small come-to-Brisbane-anyway cherry on top).

How many clubs are there atm where you could come and be 100% assured you were going to be the undisputed #1 forward target?
 
Oct 20, 2012
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if dixon continues to perform well you would think gold coast would upgrade his contract and be very keen to keep him in which case that avenue would probably shut for us
 

Sausages

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I don't mind us paying big $$ to attract the likes of Dixon, Carlisle or Rance but I just really struggle to see them wanting to come here. A lot of other clubs have plenty of $$ to match our offers.

The only reason I can think of, is the one that used to be in effect back in 88-90....it's a holiday in the sun and you get paid.
 
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I don't mind us paying big $$ to attract the likes of Dixon, Carlisle or Rance but I just really struggle to see them wanting to come here. A lot of other clubs have plenty of $$ to match our offers.


the only teams who i think in need of a forward are probably carlton (just as bad as us) maybe freo and essendon (who have carlisle they want to keep) the rest appear to have at least one good focal point in the forwardline and would not break the bank for another prospect (happy to be proven wrong i cant say im 100% across every list)
 

kylegee28

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I hope we go after some mature KPP's who aren't injury prone. Don't have to set the world on fire but just need someone to fill a void when we lose a player or two through injury. Seems we only trade for premium or bargain bin players.
 
I think as a KPF we are a pretty good destination. KPFs want to be the tip of the spear, and we are desperate to get one. They will be the center of attention, live in great weather and be paid very well. Whilst our form is bad, the list isnt. There is quality there, good quality and it does have finals potential. If you were 25-26 we wouldnt be a bad choice.
 
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Order of priority imo should be Dixon, Carslile, Hendo and Jenkins.

If we can get Dixon as a starting point and then Rance we're laughing. Forward line would still not be perfect but if Dixon can kick 35 a year and it free McStay and Freeman up playing on the second and third tall forwards than they should probably kick 30+ too.
 

TimlinOfficial

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gday guys, sorry to intrude... hope this is going in the right thread-ish. I have way too much spare time on me hands as a uni student and am currently having a look at where each club's list might be at when the doggies hit their peak around 2018. would love some feedback on this assessment of the your boys:



Certain best 22 in 2018 IF at the club:


Allan Christensen (will be 26 years old for Round 1), Daniel Rich (27), Dayne Zorko (29), Lewis Taylor (23), Pearce Hanley (29), Jack Redden (24), Sam Mayes (23), James Aish (22), Tom Rockliff (28), Dayne Beams (28)


Likely best 22 in 2018 IF at the club:


Justin Clarke (24), Darcy Gardiner (22), Tom Cutler (23), Daniel McStay (22), Michael Close (23), Stefan Martin (31), Mitch Robinson (28), Marco Paparone (23), Nick Robertson (22), Josh Green (25), Claye Beams (26)


Possible best 22:


Matthew Leuenberger (29), Rohan Bewick (28), Ryan Harwood (26), Ryan Lester (25), Jaden McGrath (21), Jonathan Freeman(24), Jackson Paine (24), Liam Dawson (22), Mitch Golby (26)

I assumed the rest on the list are unlikely to be best 22, whether because they're retired or not up to it

Obviously you guys would have a way better idea so would love a bitta feedback. I've always had a soft spot for the Lions because I've lived my whole life in Fitzroy and played juniors for Fitzroy, but am the first to admit I don't know a great deal about a lot of your list. Would love some info and hope your season improves, cheers
 
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gday guys, sorry to intrude... hope this is going in the right thread-ish. I have way too much spare time on me hands as a uni student and am currently having a look at where each club's list might be at when the doggies hit their peak around 2018. would love some feedback on this assessment of the your boys:



Certain best 22 in 2018 IF at the club:


Allan Christensen (will be 26 years old for Round 1), Daniel Rich (27), Dayne Zorko (29), Lewis Taylor (23), Pearce Hanley (29), Jack Redden (24), Sam Mayes (23), James Aish (22), Tom Rockliff (28), Dayne Beams (28)


Likely best 22 in 2018 IF at the club:


Justin Clarke (24), Darcy Gardiner (22), Tom Cutler (23), Daniel McStay (22), Michael Close (23), Stefan Martin (31), Mitch Robinson (28), Marco Paparone (23), Nick Robertson (22), Josh Green (25), Claye Beams (26)


Possible best 22:


Matthew Leuenberger (29), Rohan Bewick (28), Ryan Harwood (26), Ryan Lester (25), Jaden McGrath (21), Jonathan Freeman(24), Jackson Paine (24), Liam Dawson (22), Mitch Golby (26)

I assumed the rest on the list are unlikely to be best 22, whether because they're retired or not up to it

Obviously you guys would have a way better idea so would love a bitta feedback. I've always had a soft spot for the Lions because I've lived my whole life in Fitzroy and played juniors for Fitzroy, but am the first to admit I don't know a great deal about a lot of your list. Would love some info and hope your season improves, cheers
Pretty good, few changes tho.

Justin Clarke is in permanent ink in our best 10 atm so he will definitly be 'certain best 22' in 2018.
Darcy Gardiner will be 'certain best 22' as well.
I would think Cutler should be 'certain' as well if he stays at the club and develops properly.

I will admit that at the start of the year, didn't really like the Bullies because every time we play you, you guys make our guys really pissed off which leads to fighting which leads to free kicks for you.
However, the way you are playing at the moment has made me do a complete U-turn, you look bloody awesome and 1 will be cheering for you. Please smash Collingwood!
 

TimlinOfficial

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Pretty good, few changes tho.

Justin Clarke is in permanent ink in our best 10 atm so he will definitly be 'certain best 22' in 2018.
Darcy Gardiner will be 'certain best 22' as well.
I would think Cutler should be 'certain' as well if he stays at the club and develops properly.

I will admit that at the start of the year, didn't really like the Bullies because every time we play you, you guys make our guys really pissed off which leads to fighting which leads to free kicks for you.
However, the way you are playing at the moment has made me do a complete U-turn, you look bloody awesome and 1 will be cheering for you. Please smash Collingwood!

awesome, cheers mate. seems in that case that the forward line is definitely no. 1 priority then, might be quite a young backline when the older blokes move on though?

can't wait to beat the pies! two years in a row hopefully
 

John_Proctor

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its a good discussion point but the reality is that trying to predict a teams formation 3 years out is very difficult. Injuries, star draftees, free agents (in both directions), trades (in both directions), unfulfilled talents, late bolters all mean that players we rate highly today will fall or rise unexpectadly - especially when operating without the full detail that the club has on players.

eg. of the likely's Mitch Robinson shouldn't be 'likely best 22' today let alone in 2018 (not saying he isn't best 22 today just that he shouldn't be). And then most of the others could flip either way. Cutler's run is impressive but his disposal has been panicked the last couple of games - will he settle down or become an Aaron Fiora playing 10 games a year for his career? McStay and Close need to consistently start having games with more than 10 possessions and 5 marks to stay ahead of Andrews/Freeman/new recruits. Paparone - clean up possession! Is Green the next Banfield or the next Eddie Betts (and if he's the next Eddie does he leave our club as a free agent at some point!!)?

Even of the certains obviously Aish is at risk of leaving, Lewie Taylor and Sam Mayes were probably 'certains' before the season but have had slow starts and might fall away like a Rhys Palmer did who won a rising star and then became a fringe player.

A lot more players fall by the wayside than we expect. thnk Richard Hadley looked great as a kid with premiership in 4th game then 2-3 knee injuries in a row and left to Carlton.

Even at the start of last year who would have thought that the then 30yo Brent Moloney would fall away so quickly that he'd have retired after last season? I had him pencilled in to be a key player for us last year and this year then slowing down in 1-2 final seasons.

gday guys, sorry to intrude... hope this is going in the right thread-ish. I have way too much spare time on me hands as a uni student and am currently having a look at where each club's list might be at when the doggies hit their peak around 2018. would love some feedback on this assessment of the your boys:



Certain best 22 in 2018 IF at the club:


Allan Christensen (will be 26 years old for Round 1), Daniel Rich (27), Dayne Zorko (29), Lewis Taylor (23), Pearce Hanley (29), Jack Redden (24), Sam Mayes (23), James Aish (22), Tom Rockliff (28), Dayne Beams (28)


Likely best 22 in 2018 IF at the club:


Justin Clarke (24), Darcy Gardiner (22), Tom Cutler (23), Daniel McStay (22), Michael Close (23), Stefan Martin (31), Mitch Robinson (28), Marco Paparone (23), Nick Robertson (22), Josh Green (25), Claye Beams (26)


Possible best 22:


Matthew Leuenberger (29), Rohan Bewick (28), Ryan Harwood (26), Ryan Lester (25), Jaden McGrath (21), Jonathan Freeman(24), Jackson Paine (24), Liam Dawson (22), Mitch Golby (26)

I assumed the rest on the list are unlikely to be best 22, whether because they're retired or not up to it

Obviously you guys would have a way better idea so would love a bitta feedback. I've always had a soft spot for the Lions because I've lived my whole life in Fitzroy and played juniors for Fitzroy, but am the first to admit I don't know a great deal about a lot of your list. Would love some info and hope your season improves, cheers
 

TimlinOfficial

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its a good discussion point but the reality is that trying to predict a teams formation 3 years out is very difficult. Injuries, star draftees, free agents (in both directions), trades (in both directions), unfulfilled talents, late bolters all mean that players we rate highly today will fall or rise unexpectadly - especially when operating without the full detail that the club has on players.

eg. of the likely's Mitch Robinson shouldn't be 'likely best 22' today let alone in 2018 (not saying he isn't best 22 today just that he shouldn't be). And then most of the others could flip either way. Cutler's run is impressive but his disposal has been panicked the last couple of games - will he settle down or become an Aaron Fiora playing 10 games a year for his career? McStay and Close need to consistently start having games with more than 10 possessions and 5 marks to stay ahead of Andrews/Freeman/new recruits. Paparone - clean up possession! Is Green the next Banfield or the next Eddie Betts (and if he's the next Eddie does he leave our club as a free agent at some point!!)?

Even of the certains obviously Aish is at risk of leaving, Lewie Taylor and Sam Mayes were probably 'certains' before the season but have had slow starts and might fall away like a Rhys Palmer did who won a rising star and then became a fringe player.

A lot more players fall by the wayside than we expect. thnk Richard Hadley looked great as a kid with premiership in 4th game then 2-3 knee injuries in a row and left to Carlton.

Even at the start of last year who would have thought that the then 30yo Brent Moloney would fall away so quickly that he'd have retired after last season? I had him pencilled in to be a key player for us last year and this year then slowing down in 1-2 final seasons.


Of course there is no way to know exactly how each club will appear in 2015, but clubs don't change so dramatically that their list is unrecognisable from three years earlier.

There will no doubt be players who exceed their potential, and players who fall well below what is expected of them. But largely, you can assess the likelihood of a player's position in the best 22 pretty well.

I'll take your points into account regarding a few of those players though. Every list I look at, I take into account that they're about to lose a lot of players to retirement or that they're likely to recruit heavily to facilitate a flag tilt. I'm simply assessing where each club's current list is set for the future.

In regards to 30+ year olds, very few across the league will be regarded as 'certain' best 22 players, even GAJ will probably be 'likely' at age 33.

Cheers for the feedback mate, appreciate it
 

winged1

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Dont get carried away with Dixon's performance:

a) Gardiner is 19 and giving away heaps of height, weight and experience
b) if Merrett was in he gets Dixon, doubt he would of had the day he did
c) he consistently has not shown that sort of form
d) looking at his career he only does perform against the lower sides

So lets not pay for a guy who only seems to play well against us (and the other bottom dwellers)
 
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