List Mgmt. 2016 general list discussion and speculation (cont in Pt.2)

[Lana]

I understand you mean Delaney although I thought you were referring to the ruck which might be a bigger problem.

Surely this is McIntosh's last year before retirement, and you would be a brave man to bet Simpson's body will hold up, so we might have neither in 2016. So that would leave our rucks as Stanley, Blicavs (who may or may not be playing back) plus the two rookies who are miles off (Clark needs to be a forward given his injury history).

So to me, even if Stanley has a Stef Martin type year in the ruck, we will probably still need to put a mature age rookie on through the draft as backup, and if he doesn't we will need to get a top class ruck in. The problem is the three free agents (Bellchambers, Kreuzer, Berger) are all too injury prone, so that leaves trading again. I know the club went very hard at Z Clarke when he was last out of contract two years ago and he is again this year. TBH I thought it odd that Freo gave Hannath (their mature age backup ruck who barely ever plays for them) an extension until end 2016 when both Clarke and Griffin are u this year, to me it's a pointer that maybe Freo expect one of those two to leave, otherwise it's an odd decision.

That said the downside with Clarke is that he is a very similar type of ruck in style to Stanley. Ideally we would be better off with a Goldstein/Jacobs type of ruck who is durable for workload but not that agile, who Stanley can then complement as the agile 2nd ruck. But I can't see any obvious names available that we could trade for who will fit that bill.

The club's big challenge this year is to get both Dangerfield and a good ruckman, because while Danger is a jet, the ruck needs fixing too.

I get that we have a lot of question marks about our ruckman on our list, we do have a lot of them. I just don't think that we will recruit another "mature" 200+cm player. Players like Goldstien, Jacob, Minson who play more than 80% game time and get 25 hitouts a game are worth there weight in gold if we can get one I'm all for it but if we could have got one of them we probably would have instead of getting McIntosh.

I don't think that Stanley is ever going to be a long term solution in the ruck. But I do think that Clark could be our next Brad Ottens. I get that his injury history is a concern but his body is well rested and I don't think its something that going to hold him back especially after another pre-season next year.

I see Stanley as a KPF, with Walker and maybe Vardy(injury permitting) fighting a role as our 3rd key forward. We are lucky in that we have a lot of players who can play the role of a pinch hitting ruckman. With Blicavs transitioning as a KPD.

On the players that you brought up, I don't think Clarke is good enough to hold his own, neither is Hannath who is a solid backup but he's a worse option than Simpson. Griffen is no longer young, he'll be turning 30 in 2016. I'd take any of the free agency should they get over there injury concerns but there is a salary cap and I just don't think that we have the money to get Dangerfield and another free agent which can come with an inflated wage.

Our ruck stocks in 2016

Possible first ruckman
Simpson, Clark

Possible 2nd ruckman(in order of ability to play as a number 1 ruckman)
Vardy, Stanley, Blicavs, Walker(in an emergency)

Developing Ruckman(not ready for AFL football)
Reed, Luecy

I guess once you break it down, I can see why It wouldn't hurt to find another player who could play as a number 1 ruckman but given our current stocks it would be hard to convince a mature player who is lacking opportunity to move to us similar to how Jacobs, Maric, Mumford and Gilies moved.

Lets just see how Simpson goes this year. At this stage I'm just hoping that he'll start to be able to play more than 70% gametime

 

[catempire]

I get that we have a lot of question marks about our ruckman on our list, we do have a lot of them. I just don't think that we will recruit another "mature" 200+cm player. Players like Goldstien, Jacob, Minson who play more than 80% game time and get 25 hitouts a game are worth there weight in gold if we can get one I'm all for it but if we could have got one of them we probably would have instead of getting McIntosh.

I don't think that Stanley is ever going to be a long term solution in the ruck. But I do think that Clark could be our next Brad Ottens. I get that his injury history is a concern but his body is well rested and I don't think its something that going to hold him back especially after another pre-season next year.

I see Stanley as a KPF, with Walker and maybe Vardy(injury permitting) fighting a role as our 3rd key forward. We are lucky in that we have a lot of players who can play the role of a pinch hitting ruckman. With Blicavs transitioning as a KPD.

On the players that you brought up, I don't think Clarke is good enough to hold his own, neither is Hannath who is a solid backup but he's a worse option than Simpson. Griffen is no longer young, he'll be turning 30 in 2016. I'd take any of the free agency should they get over there injury concerns but there is a salary cap and I just don't think that we have the money to get Dangerfield and another free agent which can come with an inflated wage.

Our ruck stocks in 2016

Possible first ruckman
Simpson, Clark

Possible 2nd ruckman(in order of ability to play as a number 1 ruckman)
Vardy, Stanley, Blicavs, Walker(in an emergency)

Developing Ruckman(not ready for AFL football)
Reed, Luecy

I guess once you break it down, I can see why It wouldn't hurt to find another player who could play as a number 1 ruckman but given our current stocks it would be hard to convince a mature player who is lacking opportunity to move to us similar to how Jacobs, Maric, Mumford and Gilies moved.

Lets just see how Simpson goes this year. At this stage I'm just hoping that he'll start to be able to play more than 70% gametime

To be retained for 2016 I think Simpson would not only need to get through 2015 unscathed (huge query of itself) but he would need to recapture his 2013 form which is a big unknown if not unlikelihood.

I have my fingers crossed Simpson breaks out but I think more likely we will be looking at other options in October.

 

[Lana]

To be retained for 2016 I think Simpson would not only need to get through 2015 unscathed (huge query of itself) but he would need to recapture his 2013 form which is a big unknown if not unlikelihood.

I have my fingers crossed Simpson breaks out but I think more likely we will be looking at other options in October.

For Simpson to be retained for 2016 he only needs to have two legs and at least one arm that preferably goes beyond the elbow.

 

[catempire]

For Simpson to be retained for 2016 he only needs to have two legs and at least one arm that preferably goes beyond the elbow.

I lol'd. But I don't think so.

 

[FredLeDeux]

For Simpson to be retained for 2016 he only needs to have two legs and at least one arm that preferably goes beyond the elbow.

Big ask for him to grow all those within the next 6 months.

 

[Cataholic]

For Simpson to be retained for 2016 he only needs to have two legs and at least one arm that preferably goes beyond the elbow.

And a back with more structural integrity than a house of cards.

 

[Turbocat]

I don't mind the idea of short term contracts but, like everything, there are some things that would need to be considered.

The Rookie List and Cat. A rookies being the obvious one in my mind. Whenever there is a LTI, rookies are the ones expected to fill the breach.

That list has moved away from its original intent and can't really see it co-existing with short term contracts.

When the Rookie list was first conceived guys like Podsiady, Sherringham and Delaney were not the intended targets.

That isn't to say clubs can't use the list that way, but while guys like the aforementioned can be rookied, short-term contracts are unlikely.

Have said for a while ..I don't like the current Rookie system. They are expected to do all the same work , again this was not the original intent. These guys should be on an extended main list. Rookie B are totally different of course.

 

[Turbocat]

The ruck is an interesting debate point and I think it will evolve as the year go's on. We all have this mental idea on what we have and who we like , and who can do what.
Nearly every ruck option our list has a question over him, the only thing we know for sure...is we have a lot of options.

An Id agre with CE and Pure, we will probably add another to keep the current numbers due to the "questions"...but what type we add , age , experience etc will probably depend on how this year go's and who lacks for chances.
Id be surprised if one of Hmac or Simpson are not gone by Nov. I also think its possible that depending on side structure , someone like Walker and Vardy could get offers elsewhere.

To me Vardy and Clark have the most upside as Rucks on our list. Clark could also play as a pure forward , Vardy not so sure on that but it was the plan post Pods. Stanley and Blitz look possible long term #2's that could mainly play elsewhere. The kid Read could be handy in a year or two..too early to call. Lucey is a shot in the dark with no down side.

So who perform to above or below or just to what was expected will set who we look at. And of course who else we recruited, and where we sit in the comp.

Generally ..with Read here now, I cant see the advantage of another green kid, but one who has been in system for a while perhaps. Like them , Hate them ...the Hawks did well with the way they did it.


Im not saying any of these are the ones to go for but there options in the system and Nicholls would be handy from what I have seen.

 

[Lana]

Nicholls won't be cheap, he'd cost a first rounder.

 

[Turbocat]

Nicholls won't be cheap, he'd cost a first rounder.

Without going into worth of a specific player or players...we have shown now a wiliness to trade for the NOW.... but we mostly like to have at least one pick in R1 each year.

I hope the club has learned that trying to be cute on Ruck numbers can be expensive, so if someone was the right player Id guess they would be willing to trade for R1 for him.

On Nichols , he is the right age... and he would almost fit into FA if they change the rules. Perhaps they would be willing to trade him , especially when they have big Zac , Wright and Dixon. Gut feel is they would try for a cheaper option.

 

[dazbroncos]

His manager will certainly do that to try and call Adelaide's bluff into not matching it by threatening PSD, we have seen many managers do this before when a player wants to get to his chosen club. The problem is that in this case his love of Moggs Creek and his fiancees links to this club make it harder for them to make Adelaide believe he'd be happy to risk anywhere in Vic, but they will try.

Really though for Adelaide to risk losing him for nothing to only get say Horlin Smith or Murdoch on top of a first rounder (which they would get as compo anyway) makes no sense. After all we could agree to trade them Murdoch fir a third rounder in a separate deal anyway. There is no business case for them to match at all, the only reason is if the people high up in their footy dept think they will lose their jobs if they don't, and that might be why they match.

The rank and file, or at least the AFC board ones, want to see the AFC fight like hell to keep Danger. That may not be the best business response, as you indicate, but they, from an emotional perspective, want to see the AFC fight to keep their talent. After their personnel losses, I can see the point. Think its shortsighted but I get it.

GO Catters

 

[Turbocat]

The rank and file, or at least the AFC board ones, want to see the AFC fight like hell to keep Danger. That may not be the best business response, as you indicate, but they, from an emotional perspective, want to see the AFC fight to keep their talent. After their personnel losses, I can see the point. Think its shortsighted but I get it.

GO Catters

To me this sounds like the cries of some...never admit to anything ..when offered a deal... Its platitude without really contemplating the full scope of consequences. Its like Port sending Stevens to the PSD , so while it can warm your heart it will hardly enrich you.
The Crows job should be to do the right thing , not the emotional thing. , ...then sell it their members. Still think they probably should have traded last year.

 

[Willo_]

and his fiancees links to this club make it harder for them to make Adelaide believe he'd be happy to risk anywhere in Vic, but they will try.

I have seen you mention this a few times PO.... Forgive my ignorance but what links does she have?

 

[manboob]

I have seen you mention this a few times PO.... Forgive my ignorance but what links does she have?

"Dangerfield is engaged to the daughter of the former mayor of Greater Geelong, Bruce Harwood, who remains on the city council.The Dangerfield family live on the Surf Coast at Mogg's Creek.

Paddy's mother Janette and aunty Debbie look after the Airey's Inlet palazzo of the region's most influential businessman and Geelong's seminal modern president, Frank Costa.

Costa knows the Dangerfields well. Family members have been guests of the club at home games and, of course, Paddy played for the Falcons prior to his drafting by Adelaide in 2007. The homeward pull will be as powerful as the undertow at Fairhaven."

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/chasing-dangerfield--costs-and-complications-20150207-138n7n.html

 

[Willo_]

"Dangerfield is engaged to the daughter of the former mayor of Greater Geelong, Bruce Harwood, who remains on the city council.The Dangerfield family live on the Surf Coast at Mogg's Creek.

Paddy's mother Janette and aunty Debbie look after the Airey's Inlet palazzo of the region's most influential businessman and Geelong's seminal modern president, Frank Costa.

Costa knows the Dangerfields well. Family members have been guests of the club at home games and, of course, Paddy played for the Falcons prior to his drafting by Adelaide in 2007. The homeward pull will be as powerful as the undertow at Fairhaven."

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/chasing-dangerfield--costs-and-complications-20150207-138n7n.html

So that information isn't exactly linking her to the club though is it

 

[manboob]

So that information isn't exactly linking her to the club though is it

Well yeah cause all the people mentioned in the article go to Geelong games every week and still do stuff around the club. Just cause Costa and her dad retired doesn't mean they put on their slippers and stopped being involved. I think the article highlights that both Patrick and Misses Patrick are involved not only in the region but the club as well. Dare say they were are probably both Geelong supporters.

 

[catswhiskers]

The ruck is an interesting debate point and I think it will evolve as the year go's on. We all have this mental idea on what we have and who we like , and who can do what.
Nearly every ruck option our list has a question over him, the only thing we know for sure...is we have a lot of options.

An Id agre with CE and Pure, we will probably add another to keep the current numbers due to the "questions"...but what type we add , age , experience etc will probably depend on how this year go's and who lacks for chances.
Id be surprised if one of Hmac or Simpson are not gone by Nov. I also think its possible that depending on side structure , someone like Walker and Vardy could get offers elsewhere.

To me Vardy and Clark have the most upside as Rucks on our list. Clark could also play as a pure forward , Vardy not so sure on that but it was the plan post Pods. Stanley and Blitz look possible long term #2's that could mainly play elsewhere. The kid Read could be handy in a year or two..too early to call. Lucey is a shot in the dark with no down side.

So who perform to above or below or just to what was expected will set who we look at. And of course who else we recruited, and where we sit in the comp.

Generally ..with Read here now, I cant see the advantage of another green kid, but one who has been in system for a while perhaps. Like them , Hate them ...the Hawks did well with the way they did it.

View attachment 119398 View attachment 119399
Im not saying any of these are the ones to go for but there options in the system and Nicholls would be handy from what I have seen.

Downie has a lot going for him. Still third in line at GWS. Vic Country boy. Worth watching this year.

 

[Turbocat]

Downie has a lot going for him. Still third in line at GWS. Vic Country boy. Worth watching this year.

I have not seen him but one size and origin id be interested in an investigation. I suspect he wouldn't cost too much either R2?

 

[catswhiskers]

I have not seen him but one size and origin id be interested in an investigation. I suspect he wouldn't cost too much either R2?

Depends whether he is still third banana. Has been played as a key forward mainly in NEAFL because in his first 2 years there were others (Ruckmen) ahead of him. I would have liked us to have gone after him last trade season - would have been cheap then.

A snippett from the courier:

Giants head coach Kevin Sheedy described Downie’s journey into the AFL as a remarkable story.
“He’s a kid that’s come out of the country, has played for the national basketball team and played very little football as a kid before coming to the Giants.’’ Sheedy told gwsgiants.com.au.

“He’s really started to move through the ranks in the NEAFL.

“He’s a very mobile ruckman who’s getting more confident every time he plays the game and as he continues to develop. I think he’ll become a terrific player for the Giants.”
http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/1694021/gws-giants-tom-downie-makes-debut/

I believe he was a Geelong fan growing up in Benalla too.

 

[Turbocat]

Depends whether he is still third banana. Has been played as a key forward mainly in NEAFL because in his first 2 years there were others (Ruckmen) ahead of him. I would have liked us to have gone after him last trade season - would have been cheap then.

A snippett from the courier:

Giants head coach Kevin Sheedy described Downie’s journey into the AFL as a remarkable story.
“He’s a kid that’s come out of the country, has played for the national basketball team and played very little football as a kid before coming to the Giants.’’ Sheedy told gwsgiants.com.au.

“He’s really started to move through the ranks in the NEAFL.

“He’s a very mobile ruckman who’s getting more confident every time he plays the game and as he continues to develop. I think he’ll become a terrific player for the Giants.”
http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/1694021/gws-giants-tom-downie-makes-debut/

I believe he was a Geelong fan growing up in Benalla too.

When I have raised his name over at GWS in the past , it was always met with the view he was a fair amount away.
Even now , reading tonight a regular poster over there has Phillips a lot further advanced.

Still , I do like the sound of him. Mobile , developing. Was pick R3 p56... Is he a #1 ruck now or soon?

 

[catswhiskers]

I have not seen him but one size and origin id be interested in an investigation. I suspect he wouldn't cost too much either R2?

This outlines his background:
http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/1694021/gws-giants-tom-downie-makes-debut/

He has played mainly as a KPP in the NEAFL because of his inexperience and there being quite a few ruckmen on the GWS list in 13/14. I believe he grew up as a Geelong Supporter in Benalla. He would have been cheap this year but a good year rucking in the NEAFL will see him harder to pry loose.

I like Aussie Basketballers because they grow up playing the game (AFL) - even if its just in the yard and they watch it keenly.

 

[Turbocat]

This outlines his background:
http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/1694021/gws-giants-tom-downie-makes-debut/

He has played mainly as a KPP in the NEAFL because of his inexperience and there being quite a few ruckmen on the GWS list in 13/14. I believe he grew up as a Geelong Supporter in Benalla. He would have been cheap this year but a good year rucking in the NEAFL will see him harder to pry loose.

I like Aussie Basketballers because they grow up playing the game (AFL) - even if its just in the yard and they watch it keenly.

To be honest , id be happier to pay a little more if he has shown he is worth it. So far he has shown zip. If he came in and played 5-10 games in the ruck but could not hold Mumford out. Would I pay our R2 for him , anyone not worth that is probably not our man.. as we have Read ... I want someone 3+ years ahead of him.

 

[catswhiskers]

Getting any inexperienced young ruckman is a gamble. If he shows ability to match his athleticism his price will skyrocket.
What I saw of Podraig L and young Read last weekend suggests we are willing to gamble as they are a very long way off.
Downie is 2 years ahead of them. Can we afford to gamble with three? I suppose 2 are rookies so its only one main list spot.

I would have traded pick 55 for Downie but now I have seen Gore I am very happy with the status quo.

I doubt anyway GWS would have wanted a low pick - they had the list space and time to see if they can get better value at the end of this year or next.

 

[Turbocat]

Getting any inexperienced young ruckman is a gamble. If he shows ability to match his athleticism his price will skyrocket.
What I saw of Podraig L and young Read last weekend suggests we are willing to gamble as they are a very long way off.
Downie is 2 years ahead of them. Can we afford to gamble with three? I suppose 2 are rookies so its only one main list spot.

I would have traded pick 55 for Downie but now I have seen Gore I am very happy with the status quo.

I doubt anyway GWS would have wanted a low pick - they had the list space and time to see if they can get better value at the end of this year or next.

All true , and if the SJ deal had of happen they probably would have been willing to throw him in as a sweetener. Late picks for them is of little interest.

Id have Read ahead of Lucey by a step , but i have only seen them in a couple of games. I have not seen Downie at all , but id hope he would be 2 or 3 ahead of Read. Im different to some Id rather carry one or two extra and lose rucks , than be in the position we have been.

 

[Jon Douglas]

It all depends on where you want to be in 2016 season and what you are prepared to get done what you need to do.

Here is a fantasy to get to being a serious Premiership contender in 2016.

At the end of 2015 season Kelly, Rivers, HMac and Enright retire. Maybe 1.5-1.75 million freed up in the salary cap is my estimation.

Then we get a retirement plan (2 year contract on plenty of money) for SJ and Mackie. SJ because he may still be worth GWS' first ND pick and Mackie because he definitely has 2-3 years left of good service in him. I think we could get picks 8-12 for them. Two ok first rounders (say for argument picks 8 + 10). And another 1-1.25 million off the salary cap.

I assume we do ok this year and end up in the top 6 and win one final - and end up with picks 14 and 32 in the ND.

We go to Danger and offer 5 years at 5 million as a FA. And once we secure him 0 then it gets easier to go to the Saints and say we will trade Murdoch and our pick 8 for Stevens. We offer him a 5 year deal worth 2.5 million.

Then we two midfield guns and Clark rucking to them - we will have again a gun midfield. Who would not want to come board - and Stevens knowing Danger is coming will be lured home I would hope.

Then we go to Freo and say we will trade Kersten and pick 10 for Walters for Walters - so we get what has eluded us since Chappy left - a good crumbing, small goal kicking forward. Off him 5 year deal at 2 million.

All of the 3 players mentioned above would know (assuming GFC has a decent 2015 season) with those 3 A graders in the side we are definite Premiership chance in 2016.

If we have no injuries this is the side I see if we had these new players - (finals team for the 2016)

Bews Blitz Kolo

Thurlow Harry Guthrie

Motlop Selwood Cocky

Duncan Walker Hartman

Bartel Hawkins Walters

Foll - Clark Danger Stevens

Bench - Stanley Caddy Lang

Super sub. Stokes.

Emerg. GHS (spare on baller if needed) Lonergan (spare KPB) Simpson (spare ruck) Vardy (spare KPF).



This is a super talented and super quick side that still has size. Line breakers and X-factors.

The weakness of this side is its youth (so transition over with this team). You would think by the business end of 2016 we would have the following players having 50 or less senior games experience - Bews, Lang Thurlow, Cocky, Walker Hartman and maybe GHS. That is 7 relatively inexperienced players in big games - quite a high number.

However the top end talent is pretty high as well to make up for that inexperience - and it depends on the individual player a bit how quickly they adapt to senior footy before they become good players.

The backline looks young and a bit inexperienced but has been reinvigorated with pace and goods kicks and decision makers.

The forward line looks pretty decent as well. Plenty of marking power and quite a few goal kickers.

The midfield looks very good. Gun mids in Selwood, Danger and Stevens with good back up from Caddy, Lang, Cocky, Motlop, Duncan, Bartel and Stokes. It runs deep enough and has quite a bit of talent and pace. Add in Clark as the first ruck - and that is a very good midfield IMO. Stanley we hope is a decent second ruckman and makes our whole more flexible and quick. Even the rucks are mobile and have some leg speed.

And having so many young guys (smaller pay packets for 50 or under game players usually and there are about 7 in this team) in the team means we can afford the guns. Sure as young ones make decent progress so will there salaries be adjusted I think we could pull it off.

Its all about getting these 3 gun players to see what we are doing (building a super list very quickly - like North did in the 70's) - and them recognising they could be part of something special and still getting quite well paid to win Premierships.