List Mgmt. 2016 general list discussion and speculation (cont in Pt.2)

[Lana]

It all depends on where you want to be in 2016 season and what you are prepared to get done what you need to do.

Here is a fantasy to get to being a serious Premiership contender in 2016.

At the end of 2015 season Kelly, Rivers, HMac and Enright retire. Maybe 1.5-1.75 million freed up in the salary cap is my estimation.

Then we get a retirement plan (2 year contract on plenty of money) for SJ and Mackie. SJ because he may still be worth GWS' first ND pick and Mackie because he definitely has 2-3 years left of good service in him. I think we could get picks 8-12 for them. Two ok first rounders (say for argument picks 8 + 10). And another 1-1.25 million off the salary cap.

I assume we do ok this year and end up in the top 6 and win one final - and end up with picks 14 and 32 in the ND.

We go to Danger and offer 5 years at 5 million as a FA. And once we secure him 0 then it gets easier to go to the Saints and say we will trade Murdoch and our pick 8 for Stevens. We offer him a 5 year deal worth 2.5 million.

Then we two midfield guns and Clark rucking to them - we will have again a gun midfield. Who would not want to come board - and Stevens knowing Danger is coming will be lured home I would hope.

Then we go to Freo and say we will trade Kersten and pick 10 for Walters for Walters - so we get what has eluded us since Chappy left - a good crumbing, small goal kicking forward. Off him 5 year deal at 2 million.

All of the 3 players mentioned above would know (assuming GFC has a decent 2015 season) with those 3 A graders in the side we are definite Premiership chance in 2016.

If we have no injuries this is the side I see if we had these new players - (finals team for the 2016)

Bews Blitz Kolo

Thurlow Harry Guthrie

Motlop Selwood Cocky

Duncan Walker Hartman

Bartel Hawkins Walters

Foll - Clark Danger Stevens

Bench - Stanley Caddy Lang

Super sub. Stokes.

Emerg. GHS (spare on baller if needed) Lonergan (spare KPB) Simpson (spare ruck) Vardy (spare KPF).



This is a super talented and super quick side that still has size. Line breakers and X-factors.

The weakness of this side is its youth (so transition over with this team). You would think by the business end of 2016 we would have the following players having 50 or less senior games experience - Bews, Lang Thurlow, Cocky, Walker Hartman and maybe GHS. That is 7 relatively inexperienced players in big games - quite a high number.

However the top end talent is pretty high as well to make up for that inexperience - and it depends on the individual player a bit how quickly they adapt to senior footy before they become good players.

The backline looks young and a bit inexperienced but has been reinvigorated with pace and goods kicks and decision makers.

The forward line looks pretty decent as well. Plenty of marking power and quite a few goal kickers.

The midfield looks very good. Gun mids in Selwood, Danger and Stevens with good back up from Caddy, Lang, Cocky, Motlop, Duncan, Bartel and Stokes. It runs deep enough and has quite a bit of talent and pace. Add in Clark as the first ruck - and that is a very good midfield IMO. Stanley we hope is a decent second ruckman and makes our whole more flexible and quick. Even the rucks are mobile and have some leg speed.

And having so many young guys (smaller pay packets for 50 or under game players usually and there are about 7 in this team) in the team means we can afford the guns. Sure as young ones make decent progress so will there salaries be adjusted I think we could pull it off.

Its all about getting these 3 gun players to see what we are doing (building a super list very quickly - like North did in the 70's) - and them recognising they could be part of something special and still getting quite well paid to win Premierships.

You could do a similar exercise with the top 10 teams in the league. If you add an a pair of A grade mids and one of the best crumbing forwards in the league to any half decent team, they'll become a premiership threat. This scenario is so unrealistic it hurts. AFL trading isn't a video game like football fanatic where you can turn 31+ aged players for top 10 picks. Recruit players a year after they sign a 5 year contract for even less money.

Just getting Dangerfield would be a massive coup.

 

[Jon Douglas]

Yes it could be very unrealistic but my point is that should be our aim - to do what it takes (with integrity) to build the best side capable of winning a premiership - while not destroying the culture of the club and loyalty by players in the process. Tricky path it would seem.

But the players I mentioned to be traded are either not best 22 players (well yet) or they are near retirement and if given a good financial deal for a year longer than we can promise them - they might be willing to choose to do this. And that is how that deal would be done - all parties in agreement. I think GWS could do ok out of either getting SJ (good player still and a player that brings in fans - read marketable) or Mackie who get a 3 year deal at 1.5 mill I suspect (who again I think would be a good player for GWS).

But we all basically know that Geelong wants to be a serious Premiership contender we need -

A more potent first ruckman.
A more potent second ruckman.
Probably 2 more A midfielders.
A good goal kicking small forward.
A decent CHF.
A bit more leg speed over all.

Now you cannot fix all things in one season and that is where club planning should be a 10 year deal.

But we have still competitive team because we still have a number of good players - quite a few of these are elite. But we have lost enough elite and very good players now that have not been replaced by players yet of the their standard.

The most important issue is the midfield IMO. We can kill two birds with one stone if we get two A grade mids that have leg speed. Do that - and that alone - and with natural progression of some youngsters at the club and we would be fair chance in 2016. We know that Danger MIGHT come back to the area so we are a chance of getting him. Maybe we will, maybe we wont. But we should make a very decent offer regardless.

Then go after Stevens at the Saints. I think we can financially afford both if the combination of retirements and we do trade two big contract players like SJ and / or Mackie. Yes things would need to fall into place and go our way - but its worth the effort IMO. The on field results could be enormous.

Is Stevens gettable ? who knows but if he knew he would playing along side Selwood and Danger, and had Clark rucking to him - perhaps that would a good enticement for him to come if we make a decent deal to the Saints.

Cross the Alps and surprise them.

 

[Pivo]

Jon Douglas, I think this has been mentioned previously but you seem to want to run with it.

Jack Steven re-signed with the Saints 4 days ago, until 2020 no less.

While I understand guys can be traded during their contract, I don't know if the Saints really needed to offer such a long term deal unless they really wanted Steven hanging around.

Likewise, Steven, if he wanted out, could have let his current contract end this year and then look around.

5 year deals don't usually indicate a club or player wanting to leave.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ns-new-fiveyear-contract-20150326-1m80zt.html

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

Yes it could be very unrealistic but my point is that should be our aim - to do what it takes (with integrity) to build the best side capable of winning a premiership - while not destroying the culture of the club and loyalty by players in the process. Tricky path it would seem.

But the players I mentioned to be traded are either not best 22 players (well yet) or they are near retirement and if given a good financial deal for a year longer than we can promise them - they might be willing to choose to do this. And that is how that deal would be done - all parties in agreement. I think GWS could do ok out of either getting SJ (good player still and a player that brings in fans - read marketable) or Mackie who get a 3 year deal at 1.5 mill I suspect (who again I think would be a good player for GWS).

But we all basically know that Geelong wants to be a serious Premiership contender we need -

A more potent first ruckman.
A more potent second ruckman.
Probably 2 more A midfielders.
A good goal kicking small forward.
A decent CHF.
A bit more leg speed over all.

Now you cannot fix all things in one season and that is where club planning should be a 10 year deal.

But we have still competitive team because we still have a number of good players - quite a few of these are elite. But we have lost enough elite and very good players now that have not been replaced by players yet of the their standard.

The most important issue is the midfield IMO. We can kill two birds with one stone if we get two A grade mids that have leg speed. Do that - and that alone - and with natural progression of some youngsters at the club and we would be fair chance in 2016. We know that Danger MIGHT come back to the area so we are a chance of getting him. Maybe we will, maybe we wont. But we should make a very decent offer regardless.

Then go after Stevens at the Saints. I think we can financially afford both if the combination of retirements and we do trade two big contract players like SJ and / or Mackie. Yes things would need to fall into place and go our way - but its worth the effort IMO. The on field results could be enormous.

Is Stevens gettable ? who knows but if he knew he would playing along side Selwood and Danger, and had Clark rucking to him - perhaps that would a good enticement for him to come if we make a decent deal to the Saints.

Cross the Alps and surprise them.

This. Your posts are fantasy.

 

[John]

Jon Douglas, I think this has been mentioned previously but you seem to want to run with it.

Jack Steven re-signed with the Saints 4 days ago, until 2020 no less.

While I understand guys can be traded during their contract, I don't know if the Saints really needed to offer such a long term deal unless they really wanted Steven hanging around.

Likewise, Steven, if he wanted out, could have let his current contract end this year and then look around.

5 year deals don't usually indicate a club or player wanting to leave.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ns-new-fiveyear-contract-20150326-1m80zt.html

The Internet is an amazing thing. I turn on Big Footy, the most amazing "thing" in the existence of the cosmos, to find I have an alert tagging me in this post. Damned if I can see where but who am I to question the all powerful alert system we have. Good stuff by the way but do you really care what I think? Nah thought not. Best of luck for the season. May it not be as long as I suspect ours will be

 

[Pivo]

The Internet is an amazing thing. I turn on Big Footy, the most amazing "thing" in the existence of the cosmos, to find I have an alert tagging me in this post. Damned if I can see where but who am I to question the all powerful alert system we have. Good stuff by the way but do you really care what I think? Nah thought not. Best of luck for the season. May it not be as long as I suspect ours will be

Well I know how it happened but I'm not telling.

Mystery is a good thing.

Enjoy the season.

 

[Lana]

Jon Douglas, if Johnson wanted out to GWS he would have done so this year when they approached him. The currency he and Mackie have is a lot less than you think they do. Trading both when they are both fit and in good form is in bad taste especially if you do it for a high level of compensation, which implies that they still have something to give. It was a different case with Hunt, Podsiadly and Chapman where we essentially gave them away for nothing.

We couldn't trade them anyway since they are both free agents and at there age would at best get us a second round compensation pick.

I can't think of many times a team has brought more than two A grade players into a team in a single year. If you can, find some examples in the last 20 years I'd like to hear about them.

 

[Pivo]

I can't think of many times a team has brought more than two A grade players into a team in a single year. If you can, find some examples in the last 20 years I'd like to hear about them.

Hard when talking genuine A-grade quality.

Best I can do is Beams and Christensen. That isn't a shabby 1-2 punch by the Lions last year.

Probably next best I've got is Gibson and Burgoyne arriving at the Hawks at the same time in '09.

Depends on how loose your idea of "A-grade" is I suppose.

 

[Lana]

Hard when talking genuine A-grade quality.

Best I can do is Beams and Christensen. That isn't a shabby 1-2 punch by the Lions last year.

Probably next best I've got is Gibson and Burgoyne arriving at the Hawks at the same time in '09.

Depends on how loose your idea of "A-grade" is.

I have a pretty loose definition. A grade for me, consistent, developed performances, no excuses given for lack of maturity. For me when you see it you know it. For example Duncan is one now while Caddy isn't.

Was Gibson regarded as an A grade when he left North?

I'm thinking the Collingwood picking up Ball and Jolly before 2010

 

[Pivo]

I have a pretty loose definition. A grade for me, consistent, developed performances, no excuses given for lack of maturity. For me when you see it you know it. For example Duncan is one now while Caddy isn't.

Was Gibson regarded as an A grade when he left North?

Highly debatable but my partner is a North fan and she was less than impressed when he up and left. She rated him (if that means anything).

I'm not a big Gibson fan but he has come a long way since being rookied by the Kangaroos.

 

[Turbocat]

Jon Douglas, if Johnson wanted out to GWS he would have done so this year when they approached him. The currency he and Mackie have is a lot less than you think they do. Trading both when they are both fit and in good form is in bad taste especially if you do it for a high level of compensation, which implies that they still have something to give. It was a different case with Hunt, Podsiadly and Chapman where we essentially gave them away for nothing.

We couldn't trade them anyway since they are both free agents and at there age would at best get us a second round compensation pick.

I can't think of many times a team has brought more than two A grade players into a team in a single year. If you can, find some examples in the last 20 years I'd like to hear about them.

Not sure if you are familiar with the story of Packer selling the Nine network to Bond. Why did you sell it Kerry? You only get one Alan Bond in a life time...or something a long that line.

We almost might have had that last year SJ to GWS for P4 and P7 , SJ would be the same age as Mackie at the end of this year...but of course not a FA?
So while agree with you , most unlikely , every now and then a "Bond" offer does occur.

As a prospect for other clubs Id guess that at his age but his shape and durability Id say Mackie would have more time left than SJ. Perhaps certain clubs would look at him, but unless he is signed mid year , we will be a FA.

 

[Turbocat]

10lana , just stirring on Garland or you like him as a fa?

 

[Lana]

10lana , just stirring on Garland or you like him as a fa?

A little bit of both. But if we wanted to go the FA route to replace Rivers, Garland would be cheap and get-able. Though he is even less of a KPP than Rivers. He'd be playing a loose man role more one of those third man to a contest defenders.

To be honest he hasn't stood out to me either positively or negatively in either contest or kicking wise. I do remember him being out marked by Johnson in that thrashing we gave them in 2011. I think he'd be a decent role player but it would probably be better if we just played Kolodjashnij down back from next year onwards.

 

[Turbocat]

A little bit of both. But if we wanted to go the FA route to replace Rivers, Garland would be cheap and get-able. Though he is even less of a KPP than Rivers. He'd be playing a loose man role more one of those third man to a contest defenders.

To be honest he hasn't stood out to me either positively or negatively in either contest or kicking wise. I do remember him being out marked by Johnson in that thrashing we gave them in 2011. I think he'd be a decent role player but it would probably be better if we just played Kolodjashnij down back from next year onwards.

So , option to keep in mind if we have too many got once but otherwize........

 

[Jon Douglas]

Jon Douglas, I think this has been mentioned previously but you seem to want to run with it.

Jack Steven re-signed with the Saints 4 days ago, until 2020 no less.

While I understand guys can be traded during their contract, I don't know if the Saints really needed to offer such a long term deal unless they really wanted Steven hanging around.

Likewise, Steven, if he wanted out, could have let his current contract end this year and then look around.

5 year deals don't usually indicate a club or player wanting to leave.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/st-kilda-midfielder-jack-steven-signs-new-fiveyear-contract-20150326-1m80zt.html

yep did not read this. Thanks - well cross him off the list then !

 

[Turbocat]

yep did not read this. Thanks - well cross him off the list then !

I think we all liking the potential , especially if the Saints liked the idea of another early FA pick...but they musts feel they have just about stacked their list enough. 720,000 for him , whats that make Danger worth? Of course it doesn't that way but 500 with us was way off.
Does that make us look more at SS , not sure. I hope so. But I also think that if we can do another Blease type or a Stanley type we will. My first preference would probably be a GWS name or two but they will not be coming cheap. CE like rucks and they will not be cheap either.

 

[Lana]

So , option to keep in mind if we have too many got once but otherwize........

Can you rephrase that, I'm not following the bolded.

 

[Jon Douglas]

Jon Douglas, if Johnson wanted out to GWS he would have done so this year when they approached him. The currency he and Mackie have is a lot less than you think they do. Trading both when they are both fit and in good form is in bad taste especially if you do it for a high level of compensation, which implies that they still have something to give. It was a different case with Hunt, Podsiadly and Chapman where we essentially gave them away for nothing.

We couldn't trade them anyway since they are both free agents and at there age would at best get us a second round compensation pick.

I can't think of many times a team has brought more than two A grade players into a team in a single year. If you can, find some examples in the last 20 years I'd like to hear about them.

I don't disagree - but as I have written earlier it about the intent of the club and context.

Maybe we will wont even get Danger and our side will look similar to as it does this season with maybe 1-2 new young kids that are at the club now (Thurlow, Gregson, Cocky, etc). But that means, to me anyway, that we may miss a chance to sneak a flag soon.

I can see us improving but I can't see us without another 2 A grade mids being ultimately successful. In the next 2 seasons we lose SJ - who we made a mid because we needed one so badly. So one will not be enough IMO.

As far as context goes - I see Port, GC and GWS on the rise - Hawks will remain competitive for a while as well as Sydney. List look ok to me.

So come 2018 and 2019 it could be very difficult to beat some of these teams if they can hold them together (especially GC and GWS). 2016/2017 seems one of our best chances to get a Premiership for me. Our younger guys will generally have a decent amount of games behind them, our stars still playing will be ok and if we can get 1-2 FA that bolster the midfield we are a good chance to be a threat.

Dnager, if we can afford him - and he is interested in coming - will be a big part of the return to being a genuine threat. Get another decent mid and we are away. We have the backline and forward line to win a big game - so if we have the midfield surely we are on the radar.

Not easy to do to get 2 decent mids but GFC has to look at a host of possibilities and see what comes up. Make a concerted effort and see what happens. But definitely have a red hot go at it.

 

[Turbocat]

Can you rephrase that, I'm not following the bolded.

Bloody keyboard , on my old macbook. try again
So , option to keep in mind if we have too many retire all at once but otherwize.......

In other words, If suddenly we find we have too little experience for whatever reason. For eg. Imagine a backine of

Bews , Lonergan , Guthrie
Thurlow , Taylor , Smedts

 

[Lana]

Bloody keyboard , on my old macbook. try again
So , option to keep in mind if we have too many retire all at once but otherwise.......

In other words, If suddenly we find we have too little experience for whatever reason. For eg. Imagine a backine of

Bews , Lonergan , Guthrie
Thurlow , Taylor , Smedts

Always an option, especially if Mackie also retires, though I think that he has more than just this year left in him.

I expect our back six next year to look something like this.
Bews Lonergan Kolodjashnij
Thurlow Taylor Mackie

 

[Turbocat]

Always an option, especially if Mackie also retires, though I think that he has more than just this year left in him.

I expect our back six next year to look something like this.
Bews Lonergan Kolodjashnij
Thurlow Taylor Mackie

Like yours a lot better , Mackie has years left whether he wants it or its at Geelong is a separate question.

 

[BIGANT]

I wonder how young brad hartman is tracking, not sure whether it's cut n dry as an injury update. It's a month on i'm hoping no updates is good news. Either way it will be a news story to the geel faithful what ever comes of his decision.

 

[Teriyakicat]

I wonder how young brad hartman is tracking, not sure whether it's cut n dry as an injury update. It's a month on i'm hoping no updates is good news. Either way it will be a news story to the geel faithful what ever comes of his decision.

Yeah- he's not been forgotten by many on here, I expect.
Fingers crossed he's going OK.

 

[FredLeDeux]

I wonder how young brad hartman is tracking, not sure whether it's cut n dry as an injury update. It's a month on i'm hoping no updates is good news. Either way it will be a news story to the geel faithful what ever comes of his decision.

Scott said yesterday that they're "very very optimistic" that he'll be back soon.

 

[BIGANT]

Scott said yesterday that they're "very very optimistic" that he'll be back soon.

Okay, when did he say that ? Promising, if so.