Prediction 2016 - Goals Forecast & Player Ratings

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

We know that Walker can kick 50+ in a season. Not saying he will match that again with an older and more worn body, but I don't see why he couldn't comfortably kick 30ish if healthy enough to play 18-20 games.
I'd back Everitt to be able to kick 30ish again and backup last year. I think Levi is ready to step up to become a 40+ kicker with Phillips and/or Gorringe to take more ruck duties away from him. I don't think Kreuz is going to spend too much time forward, but would pencil him in for 10-15. Reckon Phillips and Gorringe would be good for roughly a goal a game sharing ruck/fwd duties in roughly 10-12 games each, so there's about another 10 each.
Now is where it starts to get interesting. The next group depends on team structure and which players end up taking on the high half forward type roles. I'd expect Daisy and Kerridge to see a fair bit of time there. I think we can comfortably expect 15-20 from Daisy. He managed 12 in 2014 with a low fitness base and minimised penetration in his kicking. Kerridge is a dark horse. Based on his 2013/2014 seasons, I'd say he looks like a good goal a game player. Unfortunately we only play norf once, but I think 20 can be expected if he cements a spot. I'd like to see Gibbs rotated through half forward. Is a good kick and can take a mark. Has hit double figures on 5 occasions and should be able to do it again. Murphy averages 15 goals a season and has only missed double figures twice (one being his first year where he only played 13 games). Tuohy is capable of 10 from the backline (like he could literally kick them from there).
We know Army is good for a goal a game when played forward. The biggest question is how many games he gets - 10?

Lots of variables involved, but that's a rough 210-240, give or take, without the incidentals.
That's 12 players with 10+ (probably highly optimistic, but it's hypothetically speaking). And three at 30+.

Will we get that? Probably not, but I can see the potential. Without trying to state the obvious, the biggest deciding factor will be how often we can get the ball forward and the quality of that delivery.

 

[therubbernub]

I agree if we are to play the same sort of panicked , brainless forward entry type of football as last year , that we will struggle up forward. But everything I hear is screaming that it will not be the same in 2016. That tells me that we will get much more out of our forwards (regardless of their limited talent) than we did in 2015. Perhaps Casboult will start kicking bags, walker might surprise. The list goes on....

 

[HyphensBack]

Fair bit of love for jed lamb to kick a few goals this year - any reports from the track on how he is performing?

Would have thought that it is currently out of Clem Smith, Jed Lamb and Dylan Buckley to play as the permanent smaller forward - heard a little about Clem on the track (looking fitter), heard a lot about Bucks (voice and effort), but not much about Jed.

Any chance that not one of those 3 guys play and we just have resting mids in the pocket?

 

[Blue and Silver]

Ok, so I thought I might break this down a little. Last year we scored a grand total of 219 goals and 211 behinds. DEAD last in both categories league wide.

The league average was 287.5.



With an increase of 30 goals for the season or just over 1 per game we leave the bottom bracket. With just over 2 extra goals a game we enter that dense middle pack. WCE & Hawthorn are so much further past that it isn't worth discussing.

So 2 extra goals a game seems like a good benchmark presuming the league itself remains static. Another way of thinking about it is we need approximately 2 extra goals per game compared to the leagues total goals per game for the year. Meaning we move above either the inflation or deflation of goal-scoring. Frankly as the worst performed side. That should not be hard

 

[therubbernub]

Ok, so I thought I might break this down a little. Last year we scored a grand total of 219 goals and 211 behinds. DEAD last in both categories league wide.

The league average was 287.5.

View attachment 213279

With an increase of 30 goals for the season or just over 1 per game we leave the bottom bracket. With just over 2 extra goals a game we enter that dense middle pack. WCE & Hawthorn are so much further past that it isn't worth discussing.

So 2 extra goals a game seems like a good benchmark presuming the league itself remains static. Another way of thinking about it is we need approximately 2 extra goals per game compared to the leagues total goals per game for the year. Meaning we move above either the inflation or deflation of goal-scoring. Frankly as the worst performed side. That should not be hard

it would be interesting to see the number of goal kickers per match on average in a similar chart. I think if you drill down on total goals kicked , that we will find the number of goal kickers has a direct relationship. Spread the goal kicking and you kick more goals