2016 Ladder Predictions

[aussierulesrules]

Bill, we know how much you hate Essendon but don't embarrass yourself, Watson has panels on Dal Santo and you know it.

I sincerely hope you don't mean from an overall career perspective, because I'd take Dal's career over Jobe's any time.

Only a year older and only debuted one year earlier, yet Dal has played 100 more games (300 v 200), has polled Brownlow votes in 13 of those years, compared to 9 for Jobe, has come 3rd, 3rd, 6th and 11th in Brownlow counts, compared to Watson with a 1st*, 9th and 12th and Dal has made 3 AA teams compared to Jobe's two. It took Jobe 7 seasons to crack the 500 possessions in a season barrier, at 24yo, whereas Dal did it in just his 4th, at age 21, also one of the years he came 3rd in a Brownlow (a very young age to finish so high).

You can look at stats all you want, I have no bias either way however if both are in their prime I would take Watson over dal santo every day of the week.

Watson's "prime" lasted for about 5 minutes though* and at his best Dal was extremely good and damaging, hence scoring 28 votes one year in a Brownlow, only 2 off Watson's winning total.

 

[Halftimehero]

I sincerely hope you don't mean from an overall career perspective, because I'd take Dal's career over Jobe's any time.

Only a year older and only debuted one year earlier, yet Dal has played 100 more games, has polled Brownlow votes in 13 of those years compared to 9 for Jobe and has come 3rd, 3rd, 6th and 11th in Brownlow counts, compared to Watson with a 1st*, 9th and 12th and Dal has made 3 AA teams compared to Jobe's two.
Watson's "prime" lasted for about 5 minutes though* and at his best Dal was extremely good and damaging, hence scoring 28 votes one year in a Brownlow, only 2 off Watson's winning total.

No, I mean from watching the two play, as the other fella said, you can quote stats all you like, but Jobe is a much better footballer than Dal Santo.

Oh and you forgot the 3 Best and Fairests Jobe won compared to Nicks 0 if you really want to go down the stats path and when talking about Brownlow votes, I think you need to add a lot more weight to the fact that Jobe actually won one.

 

[aussierulesrules]

No, I mean from watching the two play, as the other fella said, you can quote stats all you like, but Jobe is a much better footballer than Dal Santo.

Oh and you forgot the 3 Best and Fairests Jobe won compared to Nicks 0 if you really want to go down the stats path and when talking about Brownlow votes, I think you need to add a lot more weight to the fact that Jobe actually won one.

How much of that win was due to the juice he was on?

As for the B&F's, you also need to factor in who at each club was there to take votes off them and at our club during Dal's time he was "competing" with the likes of Riewoldt, Harvey, Hayes, Fisher, Gehrig, Goddard, Montagna, Ball, Milne, etc. whereas Jobe hasn't had to compete with anywhere near the same calibre of internal competition during the years he's won his B&F's.

Goddard is a perfect example of this. Played comfortably the best footy of his career when he was with us, yet like Nick, 0 B&F's to show for it. First year at Essendon, wins B&F. You have to put them into perspective.

Dal Santo was also literally robbed of our B&F in 2011 (the year he scored 28 Brownlow votes) and the mail from those on our board here who were at the count that night was that all the talk amongst the playing group that night was that the vote was rigged, because if Nick won it, it would have triggered a B&F bonus in his contract that would have tipped our salary cap over the edge, so close to 100% was it (that was the year we brought Pelchen in to fix our salary cap mess and the list). So he ended up coming an extremely close and convenient 2nd that night, but I'm sure everyone who was at St Kilda at the time would consider that B&F to have been rightfully his.

I'm not necessarily disputing that Jobe at his best was better than Nick at his best and Jobe has been much more consistent since he became really good, but Nick's overall contribution is higher (as you would expect from 50% more games) and at his best he was extremely damaging as well.

He's being dismissed here like he's some "plodder", but you don't come top 6 three times in the Brownlow (and top 11 four times) if you're not extremely good.

 

[Halftimehero]

How much of that win was due to the juice he was on?

As for the B&F's, you also need to factor in who at each club was there to take votes off them and at our club during Dal's time he was "competing" with the likes of Riewoldt, Harvey, Hayes, Fisher, Gehrig, Goddard, Montagna, Ball, Milne, etc. whereas Jobe hasn't had to compete with anywhere near the same calibre of internal competition during the years he's won his B&F's.

Goddard is a perfect example of this. Played comfortably the best footy of his career when he was with us, yet like Nick, 0 B&F's to show for it. First year at Essendon, wins B&F. You have to put them into perspective.

Dal Santo was also literally robbed of our B&F in 2011 (the year he scored 28 Brownlow votes) and the mail from those on our board here who were at the count that night was that all the talk amongst the playing group that night was that the vote was rigged, because if Nick won it, it would have triggered a B&F bonus in his contract that would have tipped our salary cap over the edge, so close to 100% was it (that was the year we brought Pelchen in to fix our salary cap mess and the list). So he ended up coming an extremely close and convenient 2nd that night, but I'm sure everyone who was at St Kilda at the time would consider that B&F to have been rightfully his.

I'm not necessarily disputing that Jobe at his best was better than Nick at his best and Jobe has been much more consistent since he became really good, but Nick's overall contribution is higher and at his best he was extremely damaging as well.

He's being dismissed here like he's some "plodder", but you don't come top 6 three times in the Brownlow (and top 11 four times) if you're not extremely good.

Not dismissing him as a plodder at all, he can play no doubt, Jobe is definitely a level above though.

 

[Madtiger2006]

No it didn't

After Round 12:

2010-2 wins/9 losses
2011-6 wins/6 losses
2012-3 wins/8 losses
2013-6 wins/5 losses(4 wins/6 losses after Round 14)
2014-7 wins/4 losses/1 draw
2015-2 wins/9 losses

Plenty of beltings too. 4 bad endings after Round 14.

 

[Halftimehero]

After Round 12:

2010-2 wins/9 losses
2011-6 wins/6 losses
2012-3 wins/8 losses
2013-6 wins/5 losses(4 wins/6 losses after Round 14)
2014-7 wins/4 losses/1 draw
2015-2 wins/9 losses

Plenty of beltings too. 4 bad endings after Round 14.

2010 we were s**t the whole year

2011 we won more games in the second half of the year. Made the 8

2012 I conceded that, we fell in a heap.

2013 I said at a pinch but once reality of being stripped of finals sunk in we were cactus, still won enough games to finish 7th

2014 Won more games than we lost from round 14 onwards. Made the 8.

2015 we were terrible from round 8 onwards.

It is a myth we crumble every year towards the end, its happened once, twice if you are picky.

 

[Madtiger2006]

2010 we were s**t the whole year

2011 we won more games in the second half of the year. Made the 8

2012 I conceded that, we fell in a heap.

2013 I said at a pinch but once reality of being stripped of finals sunk in we were cactus, still won enough games to finish 7th

2014 Won more games than we lost from round 14 onwards. Made the 8.

2015 we were terrible from round 8 onwards.

It is a myth we crumble every year towards the end, its happened once, twice if you are picky.

Still only 2 decent 2nd halves out of 6. You either crumbled or you gave up or you trained too hard in the preseason. Started season well about 4 of those seasons, ended 4 seasons badly. You've had big losses in the 2nd half of seasons too. Will be interesting to see how your season goes next year.

 

[Trav 20]

Great players win Brownlows, however, it's never been a great guide in evaluating players, their careers, or their worth.

It seems the younger posters on here treasure it as some kind of worthwhile measure.

 

[adammania9]

Dal Santo wouldn't even carry Jobe's bags to the game, come on William.

2012 is the only season ever where Jobe was better than NDS, a season where he admittedly took PED. Everything about NDS is better. Jobe has always been an insanely overrated player. Hop off it.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Some ladder predictions would be welcomed.

 

[Papa G]

Fremantle
Port
Geelong
West Coast
Hawthorn
Richmond
Sydney
Gold Coast

North
Bulldogs
GWS
Collingwood
Adelaide
Saints
Essendon
Melbourne
Brisbane
Carlton

 

[blueiris]

Is the reason it's most popular opinion Lions are likely to finish last or second last Brisbane's lack of muture KPP'ers our midfield is likely to be better next year

 

[Arsene Wenger]

my effort

Hawthorn
West Coast
Freo
Port
Richmond
Sydney
Geelong
Collingwood
----
North
Bulldogs
GWS
St Kilda
Gold Coast
Adelaide
Essendon
Melbourne
Brisbane
Carlton

 

[Slax]

West Coast
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Geelong
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Bulldogs
Collingwood
------
North Melbourne
Sydney
GWS
St Kilda
Adelaide
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Essendon
Melbourne
Carlton

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Bombers had a good injury run? Bahahahaha.

Watson missed 10 games
Hocking missed 17 games
Myers missed 20 games
Z Merrett missed 5 games
Colyer missed 11 games
Zaharakis missed 7 games
Bellchambers missed 12 games

Yep real good run.

West coast had far more injuries to better players & made the grand final.

That is hardly a massive list of outs.

 

[Wild Bill]

No, I mean from watching the two play, as the other fella said, you can quote stats all you like, but Jobe is a much better footballer than Dal Santo.

Oh and you forgot the 3 Best and Fairests Jobe won compared to Nicks 0 if you really want to go down the stats path and when talking about Brownlow votes, I think you need to add a lot more weight to the fact that Jobe actually won one.

Watson's best is better but NDS has played at a high level for more of his career. Both are good players but we aren't talking about greats of the game.

As for B&F Goddard never won one in his prime at the Saints but walked into Essendon and picked one up. Watson never had a Riewoldt or Hayes to compete with. Also Watson won them when you finished 14th, 11th and 8th. Gee even David Zaharakis won one at Essendon.

 

[Halftimehero]

Watson's best is better but NDS has played at a high level for more of his career. Both are good players but we aren't talking about greats of the game.

As for B&F Goddard never won one in his prime at the Saints but walked into Essendon and picked one up. Watson never had a Riewoldt or Hayes to compete with. Also Watson won them when you finished 14th, 11th and 8th. Gee even David Zaharakis won one at Essendon.

Dal played seasons at the saints when they were in the bottom half of the ladder. Steven Baker even won one.

 

[pacman]

WC
Port
Hawks
Cats
Freo
Dogs
North
Tigers

Pies
Giants
Suns
Swans
Crows
Saints
Lions
Dees
Dons
Blues

 

[Cammy2Benjamin]

Is the reason it's most popular opinion Lions are likely to finish last or second last Brisbane's lack of muture KPP'ers our midfield is likely to be better next year

I think if your midfield remains healthy you've got Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton covered. Beyond that is dependent on how your younger KPP's play

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

I see most people have Essendon finishing bottom 4 or bottom 2.

Thats ok will just make it sweeter when we start our climb up the ladder next year.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I see most people have Essendon finishing bottom 4 or bottom 2.

Thats ok will just make it sweeter when we start our climb up the ladder next year.

The thing that will make that a lot harder to do is that pretty much every other team except for Carlton who didn't play finals last year is also a strong chance to be better in 2016 than they were in 2015, so it's not like there are a bunch of teams on an obvious slide who you will just waltz past.

Whoever finishes 2nd last next year may do so with as many as 5 or 6 wins.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

The thing that will make that a lot harder to do is that pretty much every other team except for Carlton who didn't play finals last year is also a strong chance to be better in 2016 than they were in 2015, so it's not like there are a bunch of teams on an obvious slide who you will just waltz past.

Whoever finishes 2nd last next year may do so with as many as 5 or 6 wins.

True

Imo the team had a downer in 2015.I wont be able to know i untill I see where the team finishes next year.

 

[mikeder]

Dogs still have a mountain of work to do, learning to defend would be a good start thought they were putrid in the final

Ye, totally agree "JBC", and Bevo has turned into a good coach, but is no Genius. And I still say look out for Port In 2016!

 

[Connar]

my effort

Hawthorn
West Coast
Freo
Port
Richmond
Sydney
Geelong
Collingwood
----
North
Bulldogs
GWS
St Kilda
Gold Coast
Adelaide
Essendon
Melbourne
Brisbane
Carlton

Finals Predictions in this Ladder Predictions:

W1:

QF1: Haw def PA
QF2: WC def by Fre
EF1: Rich def Collingwood
EF2: Syd def NM

W2:

SF1: PA def Rich
SF2: WC def by Syd

W3:

PF1: Haw def PA
PF2: Fre def Syd

W4:

GF: Haw def by Fre.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

Some ladder predictions would be welcomed.

Glenorchy
North Launceston
Clarence
Lauderdale
Devonport
Launceston
Hobart City / North Hobart
Burnie
Kingborough
Western Storm / Prospects Haws / The Bye / Folded by round 6