2016 US Presidential Election - Trump vs Clinton? - Part 1

[Lebbo73]

Rand Paul is not his father, hope he gets nowhere. his Patriot Act filibuster is just positioning himself for the GOP primaries.

You think Rand is nothing but talk? I am worried that that is the case as well.

Separately, Obama is as big a failure as Bush. If not bigger. Obama promised so much and did the opposite.

 

[medusala]

Doubt he'll get anywhere near Hillary, but if he can mount a decent enough run in the Primaries it might be better for her in the long run. A coronation would never be a good look for someone with as many skeletons in the closet as she has.

Apparently these are appearing in New York. Re skeletons in the closet, the door is pretty well open.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Rick Perry is the latest to throw his hat into the ring for the Republicans.

Rick Perry, the former governor of Texas, has launched his campaign to earn the Republican nomination for US president.

At a rally in Dallas, the 65-year-old promised he would "end an era of failed leadership".

His 14-year tenure at the helm of the country's second largest state earned the socially conservative Christian a reputation for cutting spending.

This is his second bid for the White House.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-33000015

And any mention of Rick Perry can't go without this clip:

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Although introducing a form of universal healthcare will be a handy legacy.

Easily the highlight and a reminder Democrats and Republicans aren't the same just because they're imperialists.

 

[Norwegian Blue]

Snicker. Just when you thought the Republican Clown Car was full, Donald Trump decides to get in.

 

[swingdog]

Snicker. Just when you thought the Republican Clown Car was full, Donald Trump decides to get in.

This stuff's always enjoyable at this point in the cycle. I'm never sure what Trump thinks he gets out of this other than air time for his ego.

 

[Fuzzy Wuzzy Bear]

Snicker. Just when you thought the Republican Clown Car was full, Donald Trump decides to get in.

Could be even worse, we might get Bush 3.0. Jeb must be itching to deliver some freedom to Iraq again.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Talk that - thanks to the various bizarre network debate rules - Trump may qualify for GOP debates at the expense of someone like Graham or Perry. Bizarre.

 

[Allan Shorty]

Talk that - thanks to the various bizarre network debate rules - Trump may qualify for GOP debates at the expense of someone like Graham or Perry. Bizarre.

Bizarre indeed. Think they can take ten at the debate. Perry would be no loss. Graham deserves to be there.

 

[Allan Shorty]

I'm enjoying this republican field. Some dark horses, some clearly past its, some nuts, some greenhorns. Dunno why Mitch McConnell never made a run he could go well in this lot.

Scot walker seems the danger to bush3. Long way and many gaffes to go though.

 

[swingdog]

Big fields are common this early. As soon as the first primaries and Iowa straw poll start, that's when you need bodies on the ground to push your campaign. That costs serious money.

Until then, it's all about free media. When the voting starts, half of these will drop out.

 

[Allan Shorty]

Ted cruz is interesting. He's building a huge war chest by all accounts. He has got himself name recognition and a pretty clear niche on the right. I'm interested to see how far he makes it.

 

[swingdog]

Ted cruz is interesting. He's building a huge war chest by all accounts. He has got himself name recognition and a pretty clear niche on the right. I'm interested to see how far he makes it.

I'll tip not past New Hampshire.

 

[Allan Shorty]

Straight out? Wouldnt he want to hang on until Texas and the like in March ?

 

[swingdog]

Straight out? Wouldnt he want to hang on until Texas and the like in March ?

He would but the early caucuses and primaries tend to mark out the front runner. He might make it to Texas as that is early in March, but even then it's a Super Tuesday with eight states - party managers specifically schedule these to knock out pest candidates. It's expensive to run operations in all eight states, so even if he won Texas, he'd likely lose the rest.

At that point, the numbers aren't as important as momentum and the money it attracts.

 

[Cmarsh]

This stuff's always enjoyable at this point in the cycle. I'm never sure what Trump thinks he gets out of this other than air time for his ego.

Well he did put his name to this book afterall

 

[awaremind]

What a dominant looking man /\

 

[Bomberboyokay]

 

[Bomberboyokay]

 

[Slax]

We're now reaching a point where we can seriously start looking at those who have confirmed they are seeking nomination and review them.

Democrats
Hillary Clinton - clear front runner at this stage and expected to win the nomination, but same was said 8 years ago too.
Martin O'Malley - only current candidate I can see challenging Clinton for the nomination. Good record at local level and slowly increasing his national profile, also has the massive advantage of absolutely no dirt on him, something incredibly rare in USA politics.
Bernie Sanders - will get a reasonable following from the left, but thinking that his nomination is more about securing a position as VP on the main card.
Lincoln Chafee - the Democrat side show. This bloke as stood as a Republican, Independent and now Democrat. No chance.

Republicans
Jeb Bush - current front runner. Is actually very close to his brother on social issues and as USA politics has lurched to right over the last decade it means he is now a centre-left in the party. Family name though will allow him to get away with that a lot better than if he wasn't a Bush. Great record as Governor of Florida and as good support from the Latino community (married a Mexican).
Rick Santorum - surprise pack of the 2012 campaign and serious challenger to Bush. Is from the right so will want everything to be about security.
Mick Huckabee - has dropped in profile since finishing second to Romney 4 years ago, but still going to be a serious contender especially if he can secure the funding he didn't have 4 years ago which was ultimately the major factor which cost him the nomination. If his campaign begins to falter could easily see him ending up on the ticket with the winner.
Ted Cruz - sound policies, good debater, can work with Democrats, but chances of getting the support needed from those in the party incredibly small.
Marc Rubio - boarders on a Tea Party candidate, but has a very different stance on immigration and illegal immigrants already in the USA to the Tea Party. Still very young at 44 for a Presidential candidate and relatively new to the political scene. Will be interesting to watch, but won't challenge the main contenders. Could well be a VP candidate depending on how much support he actually gets.
George Pataki - If I could pick the next USA President he'd definitely be on the final short list. Is a Reagan like Republican, believes in small government and lower taxes but is a social moderate (could even say socialist considering the rest of USA politics). Won't win, but would love to see him in the debates as would offer a stark contrast to the rest of the candidates.
Ron Paul - son of Rand Paul for those who remember. Is only candidate who is openly anti-Tea Party. Will benefit from his father's supporter base but can't see getting the level of support required.
Bobby Jindal - well performed Louisiana governor, No chance to win but is a serious contender for the VP nomination.

Republican also rans (no chance and extremely unlikely to be considered for VP)
Donald Trump - this is about his ego, nothing else and everyone knows it. Only interest in it for me is if he actually does get to Iowa which I doubt.
Carly Fiorina - just like trump it looks more as if she is doing this for her ego than any other reason. Feminist with chip on her shoulder who couldn't win a Senate seat, so no chance here.
Ben Carson - Will provide some brilliant quotes during his campaigning as known for some out there comments, but not much else
Chris Christie - timing is everything in politics 4 years ago would've given McCain a real run for his money and may of even won the nomination, but 4 years on has been caught up in a number of controversies and now no chance.
Rick Perry - will America forget his "Oops I forgot" moment from the debates 4 years ago. Neither do I
Lindsey Graham - only thing I can see going for him is South Carolina is third up in the primaries

 

[swingdog]

We're now reaching a point where we can seriously start looking at those who have confirmed they are seeking nomination and review them.

Democrats
Hillary Clinton - clear front runner at this stage and expected to win the nomination, but same was said 8 years ago too.
Martin O'Malley - only current candidate I can see challenging Clinton for the nomination. Good record at local level and slowly increasing his national profile, also has the massive advantage of absolutely no dirt on him, something incredibly rare in USA politics.
Bernie Sanders - will get a reasonable following from the left, but thinking that his nomination is more about securing a position as VP on the main card.
Lincoln Chafee - the Democrat side show. This bloke as stood as a Republican, Independent and now Democrat. No chance.

Republicans
Jeb Bush - current front runner. Is actually very close to his brother on social issues and as USA politics has lurched to right over the last decade it means he is now a centre-left in the party. Family name though will allow him to get away with that a lot better than if he wasn't a Bush. Great record as Governor of Florida and as good support from the Latino community (married a Mexican).
Rick Santorum - surprise pack of the 2012 campaign and serious challenger to Bush. Is from the right so will want everything to be about security.
Mick Huckabee - has dropped in profile since finishing second to Romney 4 years ago, but still going to be a serious contender especially if he can secure the funding he didn't have 4 years ago which was ultimately the major factor which cost him the nomination. If his campaign begins to falter could easily see him ending up on the ticket with the winner.
Ted Cruz - sound policies, good debater, can work with Democrats, but chances of getting the support needed from those in the party incredibly small.
Marc Rubio - boarders on a Tea Party candidate, but has a very different stance on immigration and illegal immigrants already in the USA to the Tea Party. Still very young at 44 for a Presidential candidate and relatively new to the political scene. Will be interesting to watch, but won't challenge the main contenders. Could well be a VP candidate depending on how much support he actually gets.
George Pataki - If I could pick the next USA President he'd definitely be on the final short list. Is a Reagan like Republican, believes in small government and lower taxes but is a social moderate (could even say socialist considering the rest of USA politics). Won't win, but would love to see him in the debates as would offer a stark contrast to the rest of the candidates.
Ron Paul - son of Rand Paul for those who remember. Is only candidate who is openly anti-Tea Party. Will benefit from his father's supporter base but can't see getting the level of support required.
Bobby Jindal - well performed Louisiana governor, No chance to win but is a serious contender for the VP nomination.

Republican also rans (no chance and extremely unlikely to be considered for VP)
Donald Trump - this is about his ego, nothing else and everyone knows it. Only interest in it for me is if he actually does get to Iowa which I doubt.
Carly Fiorina - just like trump it looks more as if she is doing this for her ego than any other reason. Feminist with chip on her shoulder who couldn't win a Senate seat, so no chance here.
Ben Carson - Will provide some brilliant quotes during his campaigning as known for some out there comments, but not much else
Chris Christie - timing is everything in politics 4 years ago would've given McCain a real run for his money and may of even won the nomination, but 4 years on has been caught up in a number of controversies and now no chance.
Rick Perry - will America forget his "Oops I forgot" moment from the debates 4 years ago. Neither do I
Lindsey Graham - only thing I can see going for him is South Carolina is third up in the primaries

Scott Walker?

 

[Slax]

Scott Walker?

Hasn't actually confirmed his candidacy at this stage so left him off. Would be a serious Republican contender if he does, but the cost of running a full campaign is a major deterrent for him.

 

[swingdog]

Hasn't actually confirmed his candidacy at this stage so left him off. Would be a serious Republican contender if he does, but the cost of running a full campaign is a major deterrent for him.

Fair enough - that's odd because I thought there was some effective penalty if they didn't declare by the end of June, to do with fundraising for their PACs.

Should have said - nice summary.

I think Santorum is a little overstated; the US has moved more socially progressive since 2012, so candidates like he and Huckabee would struggle, though might do well with their base.

The Democrat's veep pick will be interesting - the Washington Post has handicapped the field at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...e-presidential-field-yes-you-read-that-right/. I personally wonder whether Hillary needs a type to appeal to blue collar males.

 

[Slax]

Fair enough - that's odd because I thought there was some effective penalty if they didn't declare by the end of June, to do with fundraising for their PACs.

Should have said - nice summary.

I think Santorum is a little overstated; the US has moved more socially progressive since 2012, so candidates like he and Huckabee would struggle, though might do well with their base.

The Democrat's veep pick will be interesting - the Washington Post has handicapped the field at http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...e-presidential-field-yes-you-read-that-right/. I personally wonder whether Hillary needs a type to appeal to blue collar males.

There is a penalty for not nominating by June 30, it has something to tax with tax exemption status for donations. There has though been some fundraising set up on his behalf, but he won't have direct access to it. All that said it still is June 30 in the USA and stranger things have happened in the minutes leading up to midnight.

No-one gave Santorum a chance 4 years ago and if wasn't for a stuff up in the counting then the final result may well of been different. Santorum has good support from inside the party but go to the election and he will lose as has very little support from the swinging voters and middle America who are the ones who will decide who goes to the White House.

Good article link. If Clinton get the Democrat nomination then Elizabeth Warren is no chance for VP, no way known will they go to the polls with an all female ticket.

 

[swingdog]

There is a penalty for not nominating by June 30, it has something to tax with tax exemption status for donations. There has though been some fundraising set up on his behalf, but he won't have direct access to it. All that said it still is June 30 in the USA and stranger things have happened in the minutes leading up to midnight.

No-one gave Santorum a chance 4 years ago and if wasn't for a stuff up in the counting then the final result may well of been different. Santorum has good support from inside the party but go to the election and he will lose as has very little support from the swinging voters and middle America who are the ones who will decide who goes to the White House.

Good article link. If Clinton get the Democrat nomination then Elizabeth Warren is no chance for VP, no way known will they go to the polls with an all female ticket.

Agree - she'll see who's not turning out for her in the primaries and select on that basis.

For those interested, Ken Rudin's Political Junkie podcast (http://krpoliticaljunkie.com/content/podcast/) and Slate's Political Gabfest podcast (http://www.slate.com/articles/podcasts/gabfest.html) are good ways to stay up to date with the campaigns.

For a bit of history, John Dickerson's Whistlestop podcast (http://www.slate.com/articles/podcasts/whistlestop.html) tells about past campaigns but also reflects how they relate to today's.