2k15 season and the clean out...

[Mike Smyth]

Yeah, nah. I'm just saying that sometimes it is worth taking that risk, particularly when you know the deadwood you've got, isn't going to be any use to you whatsoever.

Exactly right. Given our current predicament we need to take risks or another generation of afc players will pass by without a premiership.

 

[pjcrows]

Douglas on the trade table.

Get rid of L Thompson, McKernan, Ellis-Yoleman, Graham.

 

[lunacy]

The Answer is simple. Is Aish better than Durdin. If the answer is yes, then we offer Brisbane pick 9.

But he's contracted and Brisbane would say FU and it won't get done. Next year if Aish hasn't re-signed they won't have that same power. We can use our 1st round pick (and steak knives if required) to get him next year.

 

[lunacy]

The Answer is simple. Is Aish better than Durdin. If the answer is yes, then we offer Brisbane pick 9.

But he's contracted and Brisbane would say FU and it won't get done. Next year if Aish hasn't re-signed they won't have that same power. We can use our 1st round pick (and steak knives if required) to get him next year.

 

[Allefgib]

Come and do my dishes and windows too bigfella?

Dishes I get the point. Not so sure about windows....

 

[Tex200]

But he's contracted and Brisbane would say FU and it won't get done. Next year if Aish hasn't re-signed they won't have that same power. We can use our 1st round pick (and steak knives if required) to get him next year.

True.

However if you could get Aish to request a release, with the promise of if not this year then def next year, then they at least sit down to talk.

Then you need to go hard and give something good - Douglas + 9 IMO.

If they can possibly get it done this year then do it - don't give him another year up there assuming he won't settle eventually

 

[Vader]

Hird pick 79
Swan pick 58
Ben Johnson 62
Malceski 64
Hargrave 67
Johncock 65
Walker 75
Lyons 61
Rischatelli 61
Hamill 79
Stokes 61
Dixon 77
Richie Vandenberg 78
Jade Rawlings 94
Byron Pickett 67
Corey Jones 60
Westhoff 71
Rodan 86
Chris Grant 105
Brian Lake 71
Southern 92

I reckon it's worth a crack.

How many of those were drafted in the last decade? Talent identification has improved an awful lot since the 1990s when most of those players were being drafted.

Walker doesn't even belong on the list. He was a NSW scholarship holder and as such was "drafted" with our last live selection in the draft. He was never available to any other club, after he signed on as a scholarship player.

 

[jenny61_99]

How many of those were drafted in the last decade? Talent identification has improved an awful lot since the 1990s when most of those players were being drafted.

Walker doesn't even belong on the list. He was a NSW scholarship holder and as such was "drafted" with our last live selection in the draft. He was never available to any other club, after he signed on as a scholarship player.

Look - no idea. I'm just saying there has been talent come from later in the list and also - and probably more often, for us in any case, from the rookie list. Cut your deadwood and see what if. Also, you might get a more experienced second tier player later in the draft (that hasn't been picked up) that would be better than the witches hats some of our deadwood appear to be.

 

[billy fragos]

i wouldn't trade him.

IF we want to move smith up field (obvious thats the plan, probably as a wing, its just a matter of if it works and he performs as well there otherwise he may move back again) then Hendo and Jaensch become the rebounding defenders.

As a team who lacks outside run and line braking ability Hendo is one who when up and about gives us exactly that.

yes he was poor this season but one thing about Hendo from exposed form is he is very much a confidence player- propagable in part attributable to his basketball background and the fact he is not a natural footballer. Missing so much footy and dealing with that as well as likely confidence issues from the broken leg IMO would have the potential to affect him more that some others.

if he can return to the Hendo of the end of 2013 then he will make a huge difference to our side

Or we could play vb back and trade Hendo

 

[billy fragos]

But he's contracted and Brisbane would say FU and it won't get done. Next year if Aish hasn't re-signed they won't have that same power. We can use our 1st round pick (and steak knives if required) to get him next year.

If aish requests a trade home and we can offer them good compensation it might be done

 

[spexau]

Or we could play vb back and trade Hendo

Hendo is a much better kick and decision maker

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

If aish requests a trade home and we can offer them good compensation it might be done

Aish at a minimum will see out his initial contract and IF he does ask for a trade Brisbane will play hard ball

How good will it be to have an Ebert playing for Port and an Aish playing for the crows

 

[WeeBlake]

How many of those were drafted in the last decade? Talent identification has improved an awful lot since the 1990s when most of those players were being drafted.

Walker doesn't even belong on the list. He was a NSW scholarship holder and as such was "drafted" with our last live selection in the draft. He was never available to any other club, after he signed on as a scholarship player.

Rockliff
A huge number of rookie list players
The point is plenty of good players are first selected after the first couple of rounds of the draft

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Aish at a minimum will see out his initial contract and IF he does ask for a trade Brisbane will play hard ball

How good will it be to have an Ebert playing for Port and an Aish playing for the crows

I will be surprised if Aish requests a trade home ......call it a gut feel

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Douglas on the trade table.

Get rid of L Thompson, McKernan, Ellis-Yoleman, Graham.

Douglas has as much chance of being traded as i have of playing next season .......although i am confident in my ability to be better than L.Thompson

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

I will be surprised if Aish requests a trade home ......call it a gut feel

It certainly won't be this year and I agree he comes across to be a very loyal lad

However the Lions have tried to stitch him up early and he has advised that he won't talk contracts for another 12 months

 

[Vader]

Look - no idea. I'm just saying there has been talent come from later in the list and also - and probably more often, for us in any case, from the rookie list. Cut your deadwood and see what if. Also, you might get a more experienced second tier player later in the draft (that hasn't been picked up) that would be better than the witches hats some of our deadwood appear to be.

Let's go through the list then - the list you proposed..
Hird pick 79 - 1990
Swan pick 58 - 2001
Ben Johnson 62 - 1999
Malceski 64 - 2002
Hargrave 67 - 1999
Johncock 65 - 2000
Walker 75 - 2007 (not eligible to be drafted by any other club)
Lyons 61 - 2010
Rischatelli 61 - 2003
Hamill 79 - 1994
Stokes 61 - 2005
Dixon 77 - (Ben) 1994
Richie Vandenberg 78 - 1997
Jade Rawlings 94 - 1994
Byron Pickett 67 - 1996
Corey Jones 60 - 2000
Westhoff 71 - 2006
Rodan 86 - 2006 (initially drafted by Richmond at pick #33 in 2001)
Chris Grant 105 - 1988
Brian Lake 71 - 2001
Southern 92 - 1992

So, from that entire list, only Walker (ineligible), Lyons, Stokes and Westhoff were drafted in the last 10 years...

According to the studies I've read, the odds of a player selected at 60+ playing 100+ games is approximately 5%. The question then becomes whether it is better to draft someone with only a 5% chance of making it, or hold onto the player you already have - one who won't make it in the long term, but could provide some "depth" in the short term. This is a balancing act. It might be worthwhile taking a gamble on one player late in the draft, but it's stupidity to suggest that the club should be taking multiple players beyond the 4th round.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

It certainly won't be this year and I agree he comes across to be a very loyal lad

However the Lions have tried to stitch him up early and he has advised that he won't talk contracts for another 12 months

Would make sense by his manager who will use (like Pavlich) the lure of home to increase his contract

 

[Vader]

Rockliff
A huge number of rookie list players
The point is plenty of good players are first selected after the first couple of rounds of the draft

But for every Rockliff there are 19 players who don't make it (based on the statistical average of only 5% of players drafted that late playing 100+ AFL games). Sure, the chance exists that you'll uncover a gem - but the odds against it are prohibitive.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Let's go through the list then - the list you proposed..
Hird pick 79 - 1990
Swan pick 58 - 2001
Ben Johnson 62 - 1999
Malceski 64 - 2002
Hargrave 67 - 1999
Johncock 65 - 2000
Walker 75 - 2007 (not eligible to be drafted by any other club)
Lyons 61 - 2010
Rischatelli 61 - 2003
Hamill 79 - 1994
Stokes 61 - 2005
Dixon 77 - (Ben) 1994
Richie Vandenberg 78 - 1997
Jade Rawlings 94 - 1994
Byron Pickett 67 - 1996
Corey Jones 60 - 2000
Westhoff 71 - 2006
Rodan 86 - 2006 (initially drafted by Richmond at pick #33 in 2001)
Chris Grant 105 - 1988
Brian Lake 71 - 2001
Southern 92 - 1992

So, from that entire list, only Walker (ineligible), Lyons, Stokes and Westhoff were drafted in the last 10 years...

According to the studies I've read, the odds of a player selected at 60+ playing 100+ games is approximately 5%. The question then becomes whether it is better to draft someone with only a 5% chance of making it, or hold onto the player you already have - one who won't make it in the long term, but could provide some "depth" in the short term. This is a balancing act. It might be worthwhile taking a gamble on one player late in the draft, but it's stupidity to suggest that the club should be taking multiple players beyond the 4th round.

Basically nothing to lose delisting an extra dead wood for a pick 60+, but can't afford to have numerous picks 60+ by delisting useful depth players who will never be stars.

 

[Vader]

Basically nothing to lose delisting an extra dead wood for a pick 60+, but can't afford to have numerous picks 60+ by delisting useful depth players who will never be stars.

Exactly... Having one pick at 60+ is probably reasonable. We might get lucky, we don't risk a lot if it doesn't work out. Having multiple picks at 60+ is a disaster looking for somewhere to happen.

 

[Bay62]

Sando on 5AA says there'll be 7, 8 or 9 changes to the list!

 

[Bay62]

Says fitness guys have done a "pretty good" job this year

Also says he speaks to Bomber every week and thinks he will probably walk away from the game - "not that I'm announcing it on your show or anything"! Really?? Then why did you say it!!

 

[CrowAboutIt]

Why would u trade "up and coming players" in Lyons, Grigg or Kerridge for a pick?

If these guys are showing that they can play at the level why would u trade them for a pick? The player we'd pick is no certainy to be able to play at the top level..

 

[Dangerousfield]

If we packaged Douglas with pick 9 what could we get? Pick 2/3 from Melb/Gws?

What is the Douglas contract situation, is he contracted for next year?