A continual source of debate on this board centres on the size of respective clubs' supporter bases, especially those in Victoria. A common way of measuring support is through crowds.
To simply compare the average home or average home and away crowds of these clubs over a period of time ignores many intricacies of the AFL's fixturing. For example, some clubs may play more matches against traditional Victorian rivals than others, largely because of the AFL's goal to maximise crowds and TV audiences for financial reasons. Other clubs are often left with far more home games against low drawing opposition.
For this reason, I have taken the average home crowds of Victorian clubs against non-Victorian opposition over the period of 2000-2014 (2000 being when Docklands Stadium was opened, and the new expansion clubs of Fremantle and Port Adelaide had established themselves in the competition somewhat).
Obviously this model is far from perfect, and some of its limitations will be discussed below, but I believe it gives a more accurate indication of a club's drawing power.
To read the below rankings:
Line 1: Club
Line 2: Total crowd vs non-Victorian clubs (Victoria only crowds)
Line 3: Total number of games vs non-Victorian clubs (Games played in Victoria)
Line 4: Average crowd (Average in Victoria)
Line 5 or below: Comments
1. Collingwood
2,604,002
63
41,333
Collingwood's average benefits somewhat from playing a large majority of home games at the MCG, especially when compared to other clubs. The average figure may also be slightly inflated by Collingwood's excellent win-loss record in this time.
2. Essendon
2,215,770
61
36,324
In contrast with Collingwood, Essendon's average is probably limited somewhat by playing non-Victorian clubs almost exclusively at Docklands. From the mid-2000s onwards, Essendon has also struggled on-field, not winning a final in this time.
3. Richmond
1,788,963
63 (58)
28,396 (29,884)
Richmond's average is dragged down somewhat by having played five home games outside of Victoria from 2000-2014. However, this is offset by the fact that the Tigers play the majority of their home games at the MCG rather than Docklands. Another factor to consider is Richmond's ordinary on-field performances since the turn of the century.
4. Carlton
1,665,058
59 (58)
28,221 (28,530)
It is interesting to note that out of Victorian clubs, Carlton has played the fewest home games against non-Victorian opposition, which suggests that their home average for all games is inflated by Victorian rivalries. However, Carlton, unlike Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn, has played most home games at Docklands and also many at the small Princes Park. When this is combined with Carlton's poor win-loss record since 2000, one can understand why Carlton's average is perhaps lower than expected.
5. St Kilda
1,669,274 (1,517,495)
66 (57)
25,292 (26,623)
St Kilda will come as a surprise packet to many. This average is particularly impressive given the Saints' complete absence of MCG home games against non-Victorian teams. Some may try to argue that St Kilda's figure is inflated by relative on-field success, however, since 2000, St Kilda has lost more games than it has won.
6. Hawthorn
1,771,407 (1,258,030)
75 (42)
23,619 (29,953)
No doubt Hawthorn is a big outlier in this data set. Hawthorn's average is dragged down severely by their Tasmanian home games, and this is reflected in their average figure for home games in Victoria. However, if the Hawks were to play all home games in Victoria, the average would most likely not be as high as 29,953. Many of the club's least appealing home games are played in Launceston, and would drag the average down if they were played in Melbourne. I would suggest a figure somewhere in between their overall average and their Victorian average. In contrast, one could make a case that Hawthorn's Victorian average in particular is inflated by their successfulness, having won three premierships, and by playing almost all Victorian home games at the MCG.
7. Geelong
1,424,690
65
21,918
This data set does not provide an accurate reflection of Geelong's support, due to the very limited capacity of Kardinia Park, where the club plays all home matches against non-Victorian teams. In recent years, however, the capacity of the Cattery has been expanded to over 30,000, and crowds have not grown to the extent that Geelong would have hoped, suggesting that perhaps the average of 21,918 is not too far off.
8. Melbourne
1,617,044 (1,342,445)
78 (61)
20,731 (22,007)
Melbourne has played home games against non-Victorian opposition more than any other Victorian club. Since its last finals appearance in 2006, Melbourne has been a basket case on field, with the worst winning record of any Victorian club, which has no doubt adversely affected their crowds. Melbourne does, however, have the advantage of playing a large majority of its Victorian home games at the MCG.
9. Western Bulldogs
1,409,787 (1,083,827)
71 (50)
19,856 (21,677)
The Bulldogs' average of just shy of 20,000 is lowered by their 21 home games outside of Victoria. They have not had the advantage that other teams have had of playing home games at the MCG, which would likely improve crowds somewhat. Outside of three preliminary finals appearances, the Bulldogs have also been one of the least successful clubs during this period.
10. North Melbourne
1,258,689 (959,924)
70 (46)
17,981 (20,868)
North Melbourne finishes in last place in both measures of average crowds, which must be a concern as the club would have hoped to capitalise on the success of the 1990s. North has generally been competitive on-field throughout this whole period, with a positive win-loss record, but their failure to make a grand final appearance will have left little impact upon crowds. North Melbourne has had the inherent disadvantage of playing the vast majority of home games at Docklands.
If someone could find a way to factor into these calculations the inflating/deflating effects of on-field performance over this time it would help to address a key issue with this, and any other, crowd comparison model.
To simply compare the average home or average home and away crowds of these clubs over a period of time ignores many intricacies of the AFL's fixturing. For example, some clubs may play more matches against traditional Victorian rivals than others, largely because of the AFL's goal to maximise crowds and TV audiences for financial reasons. Other clubs are often left with far more home games against low drawing opposition.
For this reason, I have taken the average home crowds of Victorian clubs against non-Victorian opposition over the period of 2000-2014 (2000 being when Docklands Stadium was opened, and the new expansion clubs of Fremantle and Port Adelaide had established themselves in the competition somewhat).
Obviously this model is far from perfect, and some of its limitations will be discussed below, but I believe it gives a more accurate indication of a club's drawing power.
To read the below rankings:
Line 1: Club
Line 2: Total crowd vs non-Victorian clubs (Victoria only crowds)
Line 3: Total number of games vs non-Victorian clubs (Games played in Victoria)
Line 4: Average crowd (Average in Victoria)
Line 5 or below: Comments
1. Collingwood
2,604,002
63
41,333
Collingwood's average benefits somewhat from playing a large majority of home games at the MCG, especially when compared to other clubs. The average figure may also be slightly inflated by Collingwood's excellent win-loss record in this time.
2. Essendon
2,215,770
61
36,324
In contrast with Collingwood, Essendon's average is probably limited somewhat by playing non-Victorian clubs almost exclusively at Docklands. From the mid-2000s onwards, Essendon has also struggled on-field, not winning a final in this time.
3. Richmond
1,788,963
63 (58)
28,396 (29,884)
Richmond's average is dragged down somewhat by having played five home games outside of Victoria from 2000-2014. However, this is offset by the fact that the Tigers play the majority of their home games at the MCG rather than Docklands. Another factor to consider is Richmond's ordinary on-field performances since the turn of the century.
4. Carlton
1,665,058
59 (58)
28,221 (28,530)
It is interesting to note that out of Victorian clubs, Carlton has played the fewest home games against non-Victorian opposition, which suggests that their home average for all games is inflated by Victorian rivalries. However, Carlton, unlike Collingwood, Richmond and Hawthorn, has played most home games at Docklands and also many at the small Princes Park. When this is combined with Carlton's poor win-loss record since 2000, one can understand why Carlton's average is perhaps lower than expected.
5. St Kilda
1,669,274 (1,517,495)
66 (57)
25,292 (26,623)
St Kilda will come as a surprise packet to many. This average is particularly impressive given the Saints' complete absence of MCG home games against non-Victorian teams. Some may try to argue that St Kilda's figure is inflated by relative on-field success, however, since 2000, St Kilda has lost more games than it has won.
6. Hawthorn
1,771,407 (1,258,030)
75 (42)
23,619 (29,953)
No doubt Hawthorn is a big outlier in this data set. Hawthorn's average is dragged down severely by their Tasmanian home games, and this is reflected in their average figure for home games in Victoria. However, if the Hawks were to play all home games in Victoria, the average would most likely not be as high as 29,953. Many of the club's least appealing home games are played in Launceston, and would drag the average down if they were played in Melbourne. I would suggest a figure somewhere in between their overall average and their Victorian average. In contrast, one could make a case that Hawthorn's Victorian average in particular is inflated by their successfulness, having won three premierships, and by playing almost all Victorian home games at the MCG.
7. Geelong
1,424,690
65
21,918
This data set does not provide an accurate reflection of Geelong's support, due to the very limited capacity of Kardinia Park, where the club plays all home matches against non-Victorian teams. In recent years, however, the capacity of the Cattery has been expanded to over 30,000, and crowds have not grown to the extent that Geelong would have hoped, suggesting that perhaps the average of 21,918 is not too far off.
8. Melbourne
1,617,044 (1,342,445)
78 (61)
20,731 (22,007)
Melbourne has played home games against non-Victorian opposition more than any other Victorian club. Since its last finals appearance in 2006, Melbourne has been a basket case on field, with the worst winning record of any Victorian club, which has no doubt adversely affected their crowds. Melbourne does, however, have the advantage of playing a large majority of its Victorian home games at the MCG.
9. Western Bulldogs
1,409,787 (1,083,827)
71 (50)
19,856 (21,677)
The Bulldogs' average of just shy of 20,000 is lowered by their 21 home games outside of Victoria. They have not had the advantage that other teams have had of playing home games at the MCG, which would likely improve crowds somewhat. Outside of three preliminary finals appearances, the Bulldogs have also been one of the least successful clubs during this period.
10. North Melbourne
1,258,689 (959,924)
70 (46)
17,981 (20,868)
North Melbourne finishes in last place in both measures of average crowds, which must be a concern as the club would have hoped to capitalise on the success of the 1990s. North has generally been competitive on-field throughout this whole period, with a positive win-loss record, but their failure to make a grand final appearance will have left little impact upon crowds. North Melbourne has had the inherent disadvantage of playing the vast majority of home games at Docklands.
If someone could find a way to factor into these calculations the inflating/deflating effects of on-field performance over this time it would help to address a key issue with this, and any other, crowd comparison model.
