Academy Bidding FAQ

[Crusha]

Just to ease your mind it has been confirmed that the rules were changed this year. This has come form the AFL. at the start of the draft they will list out the full draft order down to round 7 or 8 with no team missing spots.

As for the second part, I'm seeking clarification on how this works.

Hey (that's what Horses eat), why does hitting the "like" button 300 times not give you multiple likes for the above post.
Never mind .... at least I tried.

The bottom above post was meant to be in response to the top above post ........................... if you get what I mean ......................





......."hey (that's what horses eat) get your hands off me you young Whipper Snapper .... say, where did you get those nice white coats ....?

 

[AB09]

Interesting that all except one pick from 33 to 44 are now occupied by the three clubs with Academy selections. A clear indication from Bris, Syd and GWS that all three clubs will be matching any bids. I wonder if this will potentially encourage any clubs to place earlier bids.

 

[SBMVJB]

With picks disappearing our picks will move up. They should become 35,36,37,38,39 worth 2418. With the 20% increase the value will be 2901.6. Should nearly cover pick 8 and 9.

 

[Crawb]

Will we have a reverse Top 10 countdown on draft night this year like the past few years where the first 10 picks are done behind closed doors and then they do the jumper presentation for TV?

Could be an interesting countdown as the order isn't set in stone anymore. Still prefer the traditional normal way however.

 

[Dizzle]

Question to those with more knowledge on this; let's pose a worse case scenario where we are the first to need to match a bid - say Keays at 8. That would assume we need to use (say) 38/39/40 - I don't know the numbers.

The question is; would that bring our picks 41 and 42 forward, and therefore worth more points?

Is it fair to say that our misfortune by having our hand forced early can also be to our benefit?

 

[Cockliff38]

Will we have a reverse Top 10 countdown on draft night this year like the past few years where the first 10 picks are done behind closed doors and then they do the jumper presentation for TV?

Could be an interesting countdown as the order isn't set in stone anymore. Still prefer the traditional normal way however.

Pretty sure it's 1, 2, 3 etc, it kind of has to be with live bidding.

Question to those with more knowledge on this; let's pose a worse case scenario where we are the first to need to match a bid - say Keays at 8. That would assume we need to use (say) 38/39/40 - I don't know the numbers.

The question is; would that bring our picks 41 and 42 forward, and therefore worth more points?

Is it fair to say that our misfortune by having our hand forced early can also be to our benefit?

Yep, they'd come forward by 2 spots. Our benefit this year comes from the fact we've got multiple highly rated academy kids and a heap of third round picks to pay them off. Worst case scenario like you said is that one gets bid on early, it will net us more points through the unused third round selections in that bid (in this case 41 and 42) moving forward. But the three GWS/Sydney academy boys are more highly rated so all our third rounders will be moving up the order nonetheless...

 

[Mr Ripper]

What a steaming pile of convoluted donkey dung. #stuffed

 

[Crusha]

Question to those with more knowledge on this; let's pose a worse case scenario where we are the first to need to match a bid - say Keays at 8. That would assume we need to use (say) 38/39/40 - I don't know the numbers.

The question is; would that bring our picks 41 and 42 forward, and therefore worth more points?

Yep, they'd come forward by 2 spots. Our benefit this year comes from the fact we've got multiple highly rated academy kids and a heap of third round picks to pay them off. Worst case scenario like you said is that one gets bid on early, it will net us more points through the unused third round selections in that bid (in this case 41 and 42) moving forward. But the three GWS/Sydney academy boys are more highly rated so all our third rounders will be moving up the order nonetheless...

Given the scenario above, and if Hipwood was the next Acad./Fath.Son to be nominated, then he would taken using two of those picks as well i.e. with 39 & 40. A real quirk of the system.

Of course, if there was other Acad./Fath.Son 's nominated in between, then it is feasible that the second match could be taken with picks lower than the first match.

If you don't follow, just trust me ......... I don't want to give an example ..........just in case i am wrong!

 

[pOleK]

Still a bit lost but if no one bids on our academy players are we able to draft them with the picks we have or do we still have to pay a certain amount of points to make sure that everything remains fair.

 

[M Malice]

Still a bit lost but if no one bids on our academy players are we able to draft them with the picks we have or do we still have to pay a certain amount of points to make sure that everything remains fair.

no we dont need to use points, just the picks in the highly unlikely event that no one bids on them.

 

[JasRulz63]

Still a bit lost but if no one bids on our academy players are we able to draft them with the picks we have or do we still have to pay a certain amount of points to make sure that everything remains fair.

Bids after pick 55 means we can get the player without 'paying' any points, and only costs us a list spot. If no-one bids on a player that we want on our main list, we can take them with our last pick of the draft (whenever that may be) provided we have the list space.

I'm not sure about rookie listing but unless rules have changed, we will be able to nominate academy players we want on our rookie list after the PSD, but before the RD, provided they are not bid/taken in the ND or PSD.

 

[Donble]

Anyone think here the Suns and Lions will make a pact not to bid on each others academy players? I'm hoping so as it will make Qld footy strong.

 

[Crusha]

Further confirmation that no. of picks not restricted to no. of list spaces:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-10-27/draft-crop-could-be-the-smallest-on-record

"For instance, the Lions hold five straight selections from No.38-42, but they might only enter the draft with four open list spots.

The picks will remain so they can match early bids on academy pair Ben Keays and Eric Hipwood. If that happens and the leftover selections are shifted to the end of the draft, they will disappear if the Lions don't have list spots available."

 

[Redeye Rambler]

With picks disappearing our picks will move up. They should become 35,36,37,38,39 worth 2418. With the 20% increase the value will be 2901.6. Should nearly cover pick 8 and 9.

Its a bit picky but looking at the draft order and expected bids, our pick 38 will move up only 2 places.
excluding our pick 2....
GWS currently occupy 2 draft picks before our first pick. They have 2 early academy players. No net change of our first draft pick
Sydney currently occupy 3 draft picks before our first pick. They are likely to use all 3 to match the early bid. i.e. Sydney's first pick moves up, next 2 picks are downgrades to be after ours. Net change = our pick 38 to pick 36.

 

[Redeye Rambler]

If the academy bids are as follows
Pick 3 = SS
Pick 5 = GWS
Pick 6 = GWS
Pick 9 = BL
Pick 13 = BL

I calculate that we will be back into the draft at pick 38.
I haven't considered any bidding between picks 13 and 38. There may be some movement of pick 38, but if the academy bids fall where I estimate they will, we will have a second round pick available.

 

[dlanod]

If the academy bids are as follows
Pick 3 = SS
Pick 5 = GWS
Pick 6 = GWS
Pick 9 = BL
Pick 13 = BL

I calculate that we will be back into the draft at pick 38.
I haven't considered any bidding between picks 13 and 38. There may be some movement of pick 38, but if the academy bids fall where I estimate they will, we will have a second round pick available.

Kennedy probably won't get bid on with pick 6, but that aside it should still use up pick 38:

• Sydney matching pick 3 (Initial pick value: 2234; Discounted pick value: 1787; Matched pick 33, remaining value 1224; Matched pick 36, remaining value 722; Matched pick 37, remaining value 239; Matched pick 44, remaining value -123; 123 points left over for any deficit).
• GWS matching pick 5 (Initial pick value: 1878; Discounted pick value: 1502; Matched pick 11, remaining value 173; Matched pick 34, remaining value -369; 369 points left over for any deficit).
• GWS matching pick 6 (Initial pick value: 1751; Discounted pick value: 1400; Matched pick 40, remaining value 971; Matched pick 49, remaining value 684; Matched pick 51, remaining value 425; Matched pick 54, remaining value 205; Matched pick 59, remaining value 47; Matched pick 60, remaining value -99; 468 points left over for any deficit).
• Brisbane matching pick 9 (Initial pick value: 1469; Discounted pick value: 1175; Matched pick 36, remaining value 673; Matched pick 37, remaining value 190; Matched pick 38, remaining value -275; 275 points left over for any deficit).
• Brisbane matching pick 13 (Initial pick value: 1212; Discounted pick value: 969; Matched pick 37, remaining value 486; Matched pick 38, remaining value 21; Matched pick 67, remaining value -48; 323 points left over for any deficit).

 

[Slitherin9]

Kennedy probably won't get bid on with pick 6, but that aside it should still use up pick 38:

• Sydney matching pick 3 (Initial pick value: 2234; Discounted pick value: 1787; Matched pick 33, remaining value 1224; Matched pick 36, remaining value 722; Matched pick 37, remaining value 239; Matched pick 44, remaining value -123; 123 points left over for any deficit).
• GWS matching pick 5 (Initial pick value: 1878; Discounted pick value: 1502; Matched pick 11, remaining value 173; Matched pick 34, remaining value -369; 369 points left over for any deficit).
• GWS matching pick 6 (Initial pick value: 1751; Discounted pick value: 1400; Matched pick 40, remaining value 971; Matched pick 49, remaining value 684; Matched pick 51, remaining value 425; Matched pick 54, remaining value 205; Matched pick 59, remaining value 47; Matched pick 60, remaining value -99; 468 points left over for any deficit).
• Brisbane matching pick 9 (Initial pick value: 1469; Discounted pick value: 1175; Matched pick 36, remaining value 673; Matched pick 37, remaining value 190; Matched pick 38, remaining value -275; 275 points left over for any deficit).
• Brisbane matching pick 13 (Initial pick value: 1212; Discounted pick value: 969; Matched pick 37, remaining value 486; Matched pick 38, remaining value 21; Matched pick 67, remaining value -48; 323 points left over for any deficit).

Small point, but the deficit concept as described here doesn't exist.
The first pick used to match a bid moves to the pick that was bid.
Any other picks that are wholly consumed move the end of the draft.
The last pick used(assuming more than one is used) gets shifted down in the draft to the value of the remaining points. Eg. 200 surplus points means the last pick used gets shifted down to pick 56.
When we are talking 200+ this becomes a significant outcome for other bids.
I've done a spreadsheet if anyone cares. It shows that assuming Mills, Hopper and Kennedy go first we can pretty much match anything. With the worst outcome being a very small deficit on next years 1st rounder and no points to match William, Chol et al.

 

[Jivlain]

Small point, but the deficit concept as described here doesn't exist.

It's different for matching top-18 picks apparently.

Also, further to this point posted late last week, hopefully the below (taken from the official AFL Bidding System Rule book issued to Club recruiters) serves as some clarification:

Once the player has been “paid” for by the forfeiting of a single selection or multiple selections, there may be a surplus of points. With the exception of the circumstance set out below, those surplus points are converted to another selection in the current National Draft using the DVI.

The exception to the above point is where a player is bid for at pick 18 or earlier and the Club’s next available selection is worth more points than the value that must be paid to acquire the player. In this case, the surplus points are not converted to a selection in the current National Draft, but are retained and used to offset any deficit arising at the conclusion of this National Draft or future National Drafts.

 

[Slitherin9]

It's different for matching top-18 picks apparently.

And that's why we traded down. "Next available pick". Only happens if your FIRST match is too much.

 

[Slitherin9]

But yes, first round matches can get complicated.

 

[dlanod]

Small point, but the deficit concept as described here doesn't exist.
The first pick used to match a bid moves to the pick that was bid.
Any other picks that are wholly consumed move the end of the draft.
The last pick used(assuming more than one is used) gets shifted down in the draft to the value of the remaining points. Eg. 200 surplus points means the last pick used gets shifted down to pick 56.
When we are talking 200+ this becomes a significant outcome for other bids.
I've done a spreadsheet if anyone cares. It shows that assuming Mills, Hopper and Kennedy go first we can pretty much match anything. With the worst outcome being a very small deficit on next years 1st rounder and no points to match William, Chol et al.

It's probably been mentioned, but "the last pick used" part only holds true for non-first round bids, e.g. not Hipwood and probably not Keays. Left over points from last picks used for those guys are effectively held in escrow and used to pay off any deficit at the conclusion of the night. Check out the original post in this thread for more details, as it's been updated as more info has come to light over the course of the offseason.

 

[Redeye Rambler]

What happens when a club passes at their pick in the draft? Do later picks move forward to fill the gap?

I know that matching later draft bids reach 0 points at pick 56, but I can imagine a scenario where an academy club has a points deficit when they are finished matching bids, but later in the draft they may pick up a few points due to a few clubs passing.

 

[Fatcat08]

It's different for matching top-18 picks apparently.

FWIW and feel free to correct me dlanod I read that post by Lions_Insider as applying only if you used 1 pick to match a top 18 bid, not multiple ones. Eg if you have to match a bid at pick 8 and have pick 9, your leftover points don't suddenly become pick 54, rather they hold over to make up available deficits. I'd imagine that this system was to stop having one pick turned into two picks in the draft. If you have to use a second pick to match a top 18 bid this pick just slides back the corresponding deficit place, and doesn't get held over. Thats how I read it as applying and tends to be supported in the Jack Steele example where the second picks extra points don't get held over, rather they mean that pick 24 slides to 27.

Also dlanod the link for the Moore and Steele examples seems to have changed to this http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

 

[dlanod]

Thanks Fatcat08, updated the OP.

Also used http://www.theage.com.au/afl/injury...e-new-afl-bidding-system-20151112-gkxg8b.html to clarify that all discounts are based on a pick 18 cutoff, not the ambiguous "first round" metric.

 

[JasRulz63]

I asked Emma about the trading away of picks and potential deficits falling in those corresponding rounds. In our example, if we have to carry a deficit into next year that we incur in matching a third round pick, those points will come from the North pick we traded in. If we didn't trade that pick in, it would come from our fourth round pick.