Academy Watch

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The Flying Belgian said:
Just can't see either of our guys going inside the top 10.
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I agree...there is starting to be a lot of hype around guys like Parish,Mathieson,Skinner, and many more...like when they bunch at the turn into the straight, in the Cup. Most calls of the card, have Keays and Hipwood presently in the 10-15 range.

The Wagner,William,Chol scenario,is a bit more volatile.
 

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JasRulz63 said:
Completely uneducated, but I think Keays will go later than expected at around 18-25.
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I'm a bit on board with this, though I'd be guessing about 15 and on (without looking at needs). He's one of a number of similarly rated mids, and clubs prefer locals unless there's a significant talent gap or they fill an identified need (speed, etc). That could see him slide a bit.
 
I was pretty concerned about Hipwood going a bit higher but those fears have been allayed. I wouldn't be surprised if there are clubs who would be prepared to take him with a top 10 pick based on need. Clubs like Essendon, Melbourne, Carlton might see a need on their list for a 200cm+ KPP who could be developed at either end. The question is whether those clubs see other players as better meeting their needs and I think between Weitering, Weideman and Curnow, there are guys who would appeal more. Then a guy like McKay seems to be the flavour of the month in terms of athletic uber-tall KPP.

The top 10 in the draft is rarely dominated by KPPs. 2-3 talls seems to be the average in recent years. If we assume all of Weitering, Schache, Weideman, Curnow are guaranteed to go top 10, then it would be highly surprising to see another KPP taken (noting Curnow is slightly undersized), let alone 2. 6 players being able to play a KP would be a top 10 out of the box. Then again, there have been instances where taking a tall earlier than expected has started a "run" on KPPs.
 
A few things have lined up for us this draft. A combination of finishing position being so low, and where our prospects are rated, doesn't put our first selection in jeopardy. Keays and Hipwood being rated in a similar range is handy too, to get maximum value.

Having a solid mix of Talls and Mids, means there plenty to go around, with good options outside of our prospects (as pointed out) Carlton, Essendon and Melbourne having multiple picks will help with an even selection of the different types too.

Going to be a really good draft for us, we will walk away with one of the best draft hauls.
 
Quigley said:
One thing to consider is whether teams will be strategic and whether they will be keen to make us take an academy player at a high position knowing we would not pass rather than letting them fall to a position which more correctly reflects their true draft position.
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Its ironic then, the AFL dont want us getting them cheap but if that happened I doubt they'd step in and make changes. They'll just say "Thats where clubs rated them, thats what you pay!"
 
Quigley said:
One thing to consider is whether teams will be strategic and whether they will be keen to make us take an academy player at a high position knowing we would not pass rather than letting them fall to a position which more correctly reflects their true draft position.
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I just can't see that happening, unless a club with pick 9 rated all the next 6 players at the same. Stakes are too high to bluff.
 
Our picks are in the late 30s there is no way we are getting comparable talent then. If its a toss up between overpaying for Hipwood or Keays and getting a second rate talent in the 40s we are going to overpay. That could make the bidding team have better talent available for their latter picks or it could wipe out our ability to match on a secondary target they have like William.
 
Quigley said:
Our picks are in the late 30s there is no way we are getting comparable talent then. If its a toss up between overpaying for Hipwood or Keays and getting a second rate talent in the 40s we are going to overpay. That could make the bidding team have better talent available for their latter picks or it could wipe out our ability to match on a secondary target they have like William.
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That's a good point. Still would pretty ballsy of a club to do it.
 

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The Flying Belgian said:
Yeah, noticed that too. Perhaps he burnt himself out on footy - there was a few media reports from a couple of years ago how he was playing for 3 games. I think Reardo is our Darling Downs expert* - he may have some insight...

* - Being regarded by others as an expert usually means you know 1% more than everybody else :D



It's hard to find anything written about the residency rule with any clarity. This article talks about the 5 years, but not the "continuous" bit:
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Played senior footy on the Downs this year with Coolaroo, won a flag and was extremely good all year. He's a class above most guys up here, I hope he goes back to Brisbane and has another crack at it. He didn't enjoy his last season down there, I think the constant travel and added pressure burnt him out a bit. He's getting bigger, he's put some size on his frame now and is looking in excellent condition. Hope this answers your question Quigley.
 
Reardo said:
Played senior footy on the Downs this year with Coolaroo, won a flag and was extremely good all year. He's a class above most guys up here, I hope he goes back to Brisbane and has another crack at it. He didn't enjoy his last season down there, I think the constant travel and added pressure burnt him out a bit. He's getting bigger, he's put some size on his frame now and is looking in excellent condition. Hope this answers your question Quigley.
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Sounds a lot like what Kennedy did. Hopefully the similarity continues and he comes back to give it a big crack in his draft year.
 
Quigley said:
Sounds a lot like what Kennedy did. Hopefully the similarity continues and he comes back to give it a big crack in his draft year.
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He's played a full season against men in a league where the rules are quite "flexible". He was targeted all season because of how damaging he can be and took it all in his stride, he's a tough kid with the tools to make it, remarkable athlete. The knock on him has always been his disposal but he has clearly worked hard on that and is now extremely effective on both sides.
 
There's a fear around here that other sides might place vexatious bids just because they can. I can't really see it at the moment - other than possibly Eddie to soothe his 02/03 pain. Hurting us has a flow on effect of helping other clubs, other enemies.

I think clubs are probably jumpy about Sydney, and after Buddy, Tippett and Heeney, I can't see any club letting Mills go to them for chips. But we're not currently a week-to-week threat.

Looking at it from a different angle: To win a flag, you only have to overtake the clubs in front of you. If you finished 3rd, it doesn't matter to you if the 17th side jumps to 12th. If Hipwood played for Brisbane next year and had a similar impact to Harris Andrew, we still probably come 14th. If Hipwood arrived at, say, Port Adelaide playing like Harris Andrews - third tall, intercept marking anything in the air, occasional ruck - that might have a sizeable impact on Port's premiership tilt.

So, if you're Hawthorn, North, Sydney, West Coast, Richmond, Freo etc, Hipwood to Port Adelaide is a bigger headache to you, than Hipwood to Brisbane. They don't have to like Brisbane - they just have to look after themselves.
 
xplo said:
There's a fear around here that other sides might place vexatious bids just because they can. I can't really see it at the moment - other than possibly Eddie to soothe his 02/03 pain. Hurting us has a flow on effect of helping other clubs, other enemies.

I think clubs are probably jumpy about Sydney, and after Buddy, Tippett and Heeney, I can't see any club letting Mills go to them for chips. But we're not currently a week-to-week threat.

Looking at it from a different angle: To win a flag, you only have to overtake the clubs in front of you. If you finished 3rd, it doesn't matter to you if the 17th side jumps to 12th. If Hipwood played for Brisbane next year and had a similar impact to Harris Andrew, we still probably come 14th. If Hipwood arrived at, say, Port Adelaide playing like Harris Andrews - third tall, intercept marking anything in the air, occasional ruck - that might have a sizeable impact on Port's premiership tilt.

So, if you're Hawthorn, North, Sydney, West Coast, Richmond, Freo etc, Hipwood to Port Adelaide is a bigger headache to you, than Hipwood to Brisbane. They don't have to like Brisbane - they just have to look after themselves.
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Feel that Carlton will bid for Hipwood at either 8 or 11 if both Curnow and Weideman are both gone (likely). But we've got to factor in that Mills, Hopper and Kennedy will have been bid on and taken by then too :thumbsu:

Can't see us needing to use points based on a Top 10 pick for Hippy. Keays too.

Just hope we have a pick left in the 30's to use on a kid we may rate :cool:
 
Panthera said:
Feel that Carlton will bid for Hipwood at either 8 or 11 if both Curnow and Weideman are both gone (likely). But we've got to factor in that Mills, Hopper and Kennedy will have been bid on and taken by then too :thumbsu:

Can't see us needing to use points based on a Top 10 pick for Hippy. Keays too.

Just hope we have a pick left in the 30's to use on a kid we may rate :cool:
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Yep, could see Carlton having a go there, but I feel that would be primarily because they like Hipwood better than Harry MacKay - not just to make us cough up big points. And that's fair enough. I mean, it's awesome for us if clubs decide they can't be bothered bidding on a kid they aren't going to get. But if I was Carlton, I'd seriously consider Hipwood before MacKay.

And if we match, no skin off their nose - they take MacKay anyway. Quite Legit.
 
xplo said:
Yep, could see Carlton having a go there, but I feel that would be primarily because they like Hipwood better than Harry MacKay - not just to make us cough up big points. And that's fair enough. I mean, it's awesome for us if clubs decide they can't be bothered bidding on a kid they aren't going to get. But if I was Carlton, I'd seriously consider Hipwood before MacKay.

And if we match, no skin off their nose - they take MacKay anyway. Quite Legit.
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Carlton know that they won't get Hipwood so why would they waste time and energy considering him at all.
 
tigernova said:
:rolleyes:......:D
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Congrats on him getting drafted, must have been an exciting moment for you all. Lets hope he makes the best of the opportunity and gets to play AFL football. Don't think you need to come on here and be condescending about it. No-one here had anything against Buzza, anything negative said I would put down to you coming onto the Brisbane board and having pot shots at the club (which judging by your work in the Cats thread nothing has changed). At the end of the day we were out of the draft well before he was picked, so its clear that we rated others higher.

All the best to him down in Geelong, he's certainly going to a club that is great at developing talent.
 
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