ADX - Audax Resources

chaddles

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Mar 21, 2007
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Bought another lick of ADX @ 0.13 the other week... Got a little toasted, dropped another 11% today... Not sure what is causing the sell off.
 

James23

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Aug 29, 2005
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General market weakness has caused this to dip in recent times.

This is an investment, not a trade and see this being much, much higher moving towards drilling in first quarter of 2010.
 

Prem87

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The chart isnt looking that great, looks like itll fall to below 9cents..might hold off buying for a while..

Anyone know what is causing the sell off, any new info released from ADX?...drilling still as scheduled for Q1 in 2010?
 

Mundy

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Probably because they havent found anything and are getting by on hype.

There are far better plays on the market, take a peek at PCL.

Huge resource off of Kenya with some free carry from OSH, I think.
 

James23

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Correct, the chart does not look good.. There is strong resistance at 10c and hopefully this will hold. It is a no brainer buy at these levels, awaiting an announcement on oil rigs and of course more detail on drilling which is taking place in the first quarter of 2010. I still maintain on hype alone this will be in the 20s/30s leading up to drilling atleast. And from then its a 50/50 punt that this could rocket into the dollars.

Management own 20% of shares at higher prices then current levels, and they havnt budged.
 

James23

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How is it going now fellas?

It's a tough one at the moment, very strong support at around 10c.. I have no idea when the next announcement will be, but im guessing it will be to do with the rig and im hoping they hold this off until November (could be earlier), as i feel the next few months are going to be really bad for the market.

Early 2010 drilling watch out ;)
 

James23

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I am actually happy the way things are currently at with ADX. I am hoping they hold off the positive announcements until after the next market downturn coming september/october/november. Then its time to really load in, as i see this 30c + coming into drilling.
 

CarltonSocialClub

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Jun 2, 2008
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I am actually happy the way things are currently at with ADX. I am hoping they hold off the positive announcements until after the next market downturn coming september/october/november. Then its time to really load in, as i see this 30c + coming into drilling.

I keep hearing this speak of an anticipated market downturn coming, but it was meant to be coming in August, now it's being pushed off to Sep/Oct/Nov.

At this stage, I think a lot of investors aren't trying to ride a bear rally, rather they see that this is the real thing. The only thing that will turn the market down is people like you believing it's going to turn down. It's a self fulfilling prophecy.

Whilst I know that the rally of the past few months hasn't been backed up by huge volumes, there are still a lot of funds out there who are sitting on plenty of cash and need to move into equities fast so that they earn their keep. Any moron could've smashed out 15% returns in the past 3 months, so there are funds out there who have generate a return before their reports come out. Hopefully they can give the market a kick.

Whilst it may the market may fall, I can't see a reason to set it stone. My guess is sideways movement into 2010.
 

James23

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I keep hearing this speak of an anticipated market downturn coming, but it was meant to be coming in August, now it's being pushed off to Sep/Oct/Nov.

At this stage, I think a lot of investors aren't trying to ride a bear rally, rather they see that this is the real thing. The only thing that will turn the market down is people like you believing it's going to turn down. It's a self fulfilling prophecy.

Whilst I know that the rally of the past few months hasn't been backed up by huge volumes, there are still a lot of funds out there who are sitting on plenty of cash and need to move into equities fast so that they earn their keep. Any moron could've smashed out 15% returns in the past 3 months, so there are funds out there who have generate a return before their reports come out. Hopefully they can give the market a kick.

Whilst it may the market may fall, I can't see a reason to set it stone. My guess is sideways movement into 2010.

August? Dont think i've mentioned too much about August to be honest. I've been saying for months that in September things may start to turn down due to sentiment surrounding last years crash. The end of October i know things will become very bad.

Self-fulfilling prophecy? Hardly. The US is in irrepairable debt, they are headed for another depression, and they will drag the rest of the world down with them.

Late October is, and always was the call.. you just wait. anyway back on topic.
 

CarltonSocialClub

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August? Dont think i've mentioned too much about August to be honest. I've been saying for months that in September things may start to turn down due to sentiment surrounding last years crash. The end of October i know things will become very bad.

Self-fulfilling prophecy? Hardly. The US is in irrepairable debt, they are headed for another depression, and they will drag the rest of the world down with them.

Late October is, and always was the call.. you just wait. anyway back on topic.

I wasn't referring you to specifically on the August call, just that it's been thrown around that there is an imminent downturn expected from as early as August from some.

People aren't going to suddenly wake up on the first of September and say "Hey look, the US has 1.5tr of debt." China is propping it up, and it's in their best interests. By the time they decide to pull the pin they'll be self-sufficient, which won't be any time toom. This is not a repeat of the great depression (if that's what your implying), there is one big factor which is different, China (or the BRIC nations in general), who have the capacity to pull the global economy along.

Anyway, I'm not out to shoot you down, I keep an eye on what you say on the stock forums. I guess if we all thought the same the markets would be a pretty boring place to work/study/invest in.
 

Mundy

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"The oil and gas companies of the world play pass the parcel with Tunisian permits. Has to be one of the worst known oil and gas basins of the world. Multiple small prospects. Poor reservoir quality. Low sand porosity. High concentration of inert gases - 15-30% Carbon dioxide, 15% Nitrogen and 1-3% Hydrogen sulfide.

Many of the fields identified on those maps are fields that have been drilled and abandoned. Just one example is the Birsa Field which has been drilled and not touched. Tazerka is another one, abandoned after producing approximately 22 mmboe.

Oudna prospect - potential recoverable resource was estimated at 50 mmboe

Oudna field is currently in production (producing since 2006). Here we have a company who were lucky to lease an FPSO with the required technology to extract the resource. Due to poor reservoir quality they had had to use water injection to maintain reservoir pressure. They have also required a robust artificial lift mechanism to attempt to maintain production rates (One of the biggest in the world). They were producing at 20,000 bopd for 6 months (production commenced Nov 2006) it has now fallen off. In total they have produced about 15.6 million barrels since Dec 2008 (if you assume 20,000 bopd since Now 2006-Dec 2008) and Reserves at Jan 2009 are now 1 mmboe (Net Reserves to Lundin 0.4mmboe with 40% stake). Therefore the likelihood of them even reaching 20 million of the potential recoverable resource is slim.

They moved to Oudna from Isis prospect due to rapid reservoir pressure decline, combined with increased water production.

Basically this is why no majors operate in Tunisia, they realized this area was rubbish in the late 1970s.

Not saying this isn't still a decent play, can still provide you with a great return, but I'm just letting you all know a little about what your putting your money in. Might want to divide that 270 mmboe potential in half."


From somone in the know.
 

Amish Jim

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Aug 1, 2008
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"The oil and gas companies of the world play pass the parcel with Tunisian permits. Has to be one of the worst known oil and gas basins of the world. Multiple small prospects. Poor reservoir quality. Low sand porosity. High concentration of inert gases - 15-30% Carbon dioxide, 15% Nitrogen and 1-3% Hydrogen sulfide.

Many of the fields identified on those maps are fields that have been drilled and abandoned. Just one example is the Birsa Field which has been drilled and not touched. Tazerka is another one, abandoned after producing approximately 22 mmboe.

Oudna prospect - potential recoverable resource was estimated at 50 mmboe

Oudna field is currently in production (producing since 2006). Here we have a company who were lucky to lease an FPSO with the required technology to extract the resource. Due to poor reservoir quality they had had to use water injection to maintain reservoir pressure. They have also required a robust artificial lift mechanism to attempt to maintain production rates (One of the biggest in the world). They were producing at 20,000 bopd for 6 months (production commenced Nov 2006) it has now fallen off. In total they have produced about 15.6 million barrels since Dec 2008 (if you assume 20,000 bopd since Now 2006-Dec 2008) and Reserves at Jan 2009 are now 1 mmboe (Net Reserves to Lundin 0.4mmboe with 40% stake). Therefore the likelihood of them even reaching 20 million of the potential recoverable resource is slim.

They moved to Oudna from Isis prospect due to rapid reservoir pressure decline, combined with increased water production.

Basically this is why no majors operate in Tunisia, they realized this area was rubbish in the late 1970s.

Not saying this isn't still a decent play, can still provide you with a great return, but I'm just letting you all know a little about what your putting your money in. Might want to divide that 270 mmboe potential in half."


From somone in the know.

From someone in the know is obviously meant to mean a poster called dexter1 on the hot copper forum.

Dont come in and spruik information from someone as "in the know" when that someone is basically another faceless poster on the Stockmarket forum equivelant of biggfooty.

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single.asp?fid=1&tid=971610&msgid=5416664
 

James23

Premiership Player
Aug 29, 2005
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If the market can stay steady for a while longer, im expecting some very positive announcements in the coming days/weeks which im hoping will see this push 20c.
 

James23

Premiership Player
Aug 29, 2005
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West Lakes
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Where do you stand with this one leading into your predicted downturn James?

Theres talk of pending announcements in the VERY near future which could see it take off.. on the other hand I see another market crash on the cards.

I'm staying out.. for now, definite re-entry in the near future as drilling is early next year with huge targets.

Even if it does rise short-term, i see it getting smashed back down when the market finally turns.

Re-entry December / January

Sorry for not getting back to ur email yet.. been very busy.
 
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