AFL 2015 - A 309 Warning

MrTripleC

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Sep 26, 2007
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309 Day Warning - Coaches Corner, A Numbers Game (70)

Today marks the AFL National Draft for 2014 and one of the last acts before AFL lists are completed for the 2015 season. While teams still have another 10 days until the official lists must be lodged, in some ways today is the unofficial end of 2014 and the point where all eyes turn to 2015 and round one.


With eyes now turning to 2015 than, one can only think that there are only 309 days until the AFL premiership is decided on Grand final day. From now until that point this is the story of the 2015 season and the 309 warning for premiership success.


With AFL national draft night upon us excitement is at fever pitch. Fans love the draft because of the hope that it brings for the future.


Players love the draft because for around 100 young men this is the commencement of being able to satisfy a lifelong dream. Coaches love the draft because a group of impressionable young men are about to be ready to hang on every word they say. Clubs love the draft because it is where the pieces start to come together and a plan starts to take shape.


For me that last part is the most interesting about the draft night. The draft really gives you the greatest insight to a club, where they think they are at and where they are going in the short and long term.


Forget the hype of what a player can do or will be, for me it is looking at what a club is doing and why they are doing it. For the footy analysts nothing can beat draft night.


Over the next three weeks I will look to bring a proper analysis of what the draft means for clubs and where they are headed. While clubs may add a player or two during free agency and trade period, in almost every case it is the draft where clubs bring in the majority of their list changes for the next year.


At no other point during the off-season do clubs bring in four or more players that help shape a list. Forget ridiculous grade systems, this will be an analysis of the ‘why’ of the draft. Why each club drafted each player in the draft. Before that though, the draft needs to take place and with more than 200 hopefuls waiting to hear their name called, recent history tells us that one group of players has a far greater advantage than any other. That group hail from Victoria, and namely those that played in the TAC Cup.


In the past three years 70 per cent of the top 20 picks have come from TAC Cup clubs. That is up from about 55 per cent 10 years ago and far outweighs the 30-35 per cent participation figure that comes from young adult Victorian males.


So is this heavy weighting of Victorian talent part of a mentality where club recruiters all look and think the same? Is it because of the higher proportion of clubs based in Melbourne, is it because there is more talent in Victorian footballers or is it because the TAC Cup has done an outstanding job in promoting itself and the talent on display?


In honesty probably all four of those ideas have a level of truth about them, but the final one, that the TAC Cup market players better is the key driver in the high number of high draft picks coming from the competition.


The TAC Cup has continued to grow its exposure in the mass media and through improved television and media deals have been able to profile its brightest stars throughout the past few seasons. It cannot be seen as a coincidence that players from the TAC now dominate top picks at the AFL national draft.


While this is a great story for the TAC Cup it should be a lesson to other competitions like the SANFL and WAFL, which continue to lag behind in being able to promote its next stars. Instead they rely on the NAB Under-18 Championships as being enough to get players drafted. In this modern world being socially active is crucial and it is where Victoria is winning the battle against other football states.


Of course the downside to clubs being overexposed to Victoria’s players is that they are potentially overlooking other states and other players who may not have the hype but do have the pedigree to be bigger stars.


The proof of this is in the key big misses from the past five seasons since the TAC Cup has increased its exposure and more players have been drafted out of Victoria.


In 2013, Luke Dunstan and James Aish, both from South Australia, fell in draft boards over the season and were two of the draft steals last year. From a weak 2012 class South Australians Sam Mayes and Troy Menzel have both developed into two of the best players from that draft despite being drafted outside the top seven, while later picks in Dean Kent and Dean Terlich from Western Australia and South Australia respectively have been strong role players with Melbourne and defied their own draft pick.


2011 is littered with interstate misses with the Chad Wingard miss by Greater Western Sydney among the great draft day blunders considering their concessions. Western Australia’s Brad Hill is among the great draft day gets, falling past the top 30 while South Australians Sam Rowe and Lachie Neale are another two that have been far better than their draft day selection.

2010 saw Brodie Smith, Jack Darling, Scott Lycett, Alex Fasolo and George Horlin-Smith all fall outside the top 13 and would now be considered among the best from that draft class. And of course 2009 has the Nathan Fyfe story.


It is a balancing act for clubs and recruiters. Where is the hype proven and where is talent lurking, just waiting to be unearthed?

This draft, like all others, will have its surprises and its steals. Recent history tells us that the TAC Cup will dominate the early rounds, but just maybe the next premiership players will come from outside Victoria late on the draft evening.


As the top picks get interviewed and are presented with their club gear, remember that premiership players may be having their name called behind the hype.


Hype versus performance, that is the AFL national draft in 2014.


In 2015 MrTripleC will bring a unique look at the AFL season both through this 309 warning blog and through the Mike-to-Cam Show. Hope you enjoy the season, the read and the listen.
 
Aug 16, 2010
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2011 is littered with interstate misses with the Chad Wingard miss by Greater Western Sydney among the great draft day blunders considering their concessions.

Didn't Wingard tell GWS that he'd leave them if they drafted him?
 

MrTripleC

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308 Day Warning - St Kilda's Draft Blueprint

In any AFL season the number one pick was coveted by all clubs and in 2014 it had an added advantage for St Kilda. They had the ability to affect the entire draft based upon their first decision. Some have argued that the number one pick did not have the same importance due to the evenness of the top few picks, however what St Kilda were able to do was go into the draft knowing who they would pick and from there form an opinion on where the draft would go. They went for key position prospect Patrick McCartin.



What was intriguing about McCartin going number one was that until a few days before the draft it was expected that tough onballer Christian Petracca would be the number one pick. Only in the day or two before the draft did the draft experts get wind that St Kilda had flipped to McCartin. St Kilda has been adamant that McCartin was always the man they wanted but certainly something changed between the end of the season and draft night. Perhaps the most logical explanation was that the Western Bulldogs raised the stakes on key position players.



St Kilda has been bullish in that they believed that the research they had conducted meant they were on the right path to build a premiership squad. They continued to highlight the profile of Hawthorn and the draft picks they obtained as a key benchmark. However the noticeable difference between St Kilda and Hawthorn from a decade previous was that Hawthorn obtained two generation defining forwards within a handful of picks of one another. For all of St Kilda’s belief that they were well placed they needed to get key position players.



With a number of clubs, headlined by GWS, holding a stack of key position prospects St Kilda’s belief appeared to be that they would be able to trade for a potential game winning key forward at value. That belief was snuffed when Western offered a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal to Tom Boyd. It could be that this draft swung on St Kilda recognizing that they needed a key forward to continue with their premiership building profile. McCartin is perhaps that key forward they believe they need.



Maybe it was this uncertainty that St Kilda had created in the draft lead in that allowed a popular name a second chance in the red, black and white. Hugh Goddard long considered a top 10 pick was one of the draft day sliders before ending where cousin Brendon had a decade previous, the Saints. Goddard complimented the solid selection of Daniel McKenzie a pick later in what ended up being a successful top 25 for St Kilda. St Kilda’s draft day ended at pick 41 when they added Jack Lonie who is a small forward who had a knack for finding the goals at TAC and under age level.



St Kilda’s losses over the past three seasons have been noticeable, but what is clear from it’s direction over the past two drafts is that they do have a plan. They believe in the premiership blueprint that they have researched and created. Last year they picked up a range of versatile midfield talent. This year they have complimented with athletic big man talent. The game is likely to change in style and substance before St Kilda next contend for a premiership but what they have done with this draft is allow themselves to move with the times.



It is hard to know where exactly St Kilda are or even where they believe they are in regards to that premiership blueprint, but what is for sure, the 2014 National Draft helped add a few more of the right pieces. For that the Saints have reason to smile
 
Didn't Wingard tell GWS that he'd leave them if they drafted him?
Pretty much. Said he'd honour the initial two year contract but couldn't promise to stay after that.

Which is exactly what Wines said, too, for the record, we just backed ourselves and our culture to convince him otherwise.
 

Cylon7

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Jul 9, 2008
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Pretty much. Said he'd honour the initial two year contract but couldn't promise to stay after that.

Which is exactly what Wines said, too, for the record, we just backed ourselves and our culture to convince him otherwise.

Yes, it's fine for some. Wines and Wingard had the fortune of playing in prominent leagues. If they lived in ACT/NSW or QLD they'd be playing amateur social grade now and be unable to even change codes.

Bet they didn't have any legitimate reason and bet the AFL Commission turned a blind eye.
 

MrTripleC

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Sep 26, 2007
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307 Day Warning - Fremantle and Big Picture Drafting

They were considered one of the draft day surprises of the 2014 national draft as Fremantle loaded up on midfield and small forward talent. However perhaps the real surprise of Fremantle's draft and off-season period was the football world's
inability to look at the bigger picture that Fremantle sees.


15 months ago Fremantle fell agonisingly short of a maiden premiership and three months ago were about six good quarters away from another premiership berth. A lot has been made of a meek second half, second semi final effort but Fremantle has done the right thing in this off-season by not overcorrecting what may just have been a tough end to what was a tough season. Being hunted did not treat Fremantle kindly, in 2015 they go back to being hunters.


Part of the reason that Fremantle's off-season and draft was considered surprising was because of an unwillingness in the mainstream media to acknowledge what Fremantle has been building and is looking to sustain. To understand Fremantle's 2014 National Draft one has to look at their last two national draft performances and couple this with the history of both the club and its coach Ross Lyon.


In regards to the national draft, in 2013 Fremantle selected tall players with its first two picks adding key position prospects Michael Apeness and Alex Pearce to its list. This was complimented by promoting versatile tall Matt Taberner being elevated from the rookie list. In 2012 Tanner Smith and Jack Hannath were tall players that came to the club. That means over the past two seasons Fremantle has added five versatile and talented big men to its depth. Given that big players take time to develop the performances of Taberner and Hannath at AFL level and Smith and Apeness at WAFL level mean that all four could form a solid ruck and key position core.


Experts keep talking about the need for Fremantle to replace veteran stalwarts Luke McPharlin, Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands but with Smith down back, Apeness in the ruck and Taberner up forward the replacements are already there.


The partnership of Ross Lyon and Fremantle has been a strong one for the past three seasons but in terms of list management the path ahead is perhaps rocky. Lyon has been regarded as a win now coach. Willing to sacrifice a list in the long term to deliver a premiership. Only Lyon is yet to deliver that premiership. Fremantle want a premiership. They would sacrifice for a premiership. Yet Lyon must know that he can't leave Fremantle in a precarious position when he leaves given the hit it would give to his reputation. For that reason the draft in 2014 was a little bit of staying a contender while also continuing to think ahead for life post Lyon.


Instead of looking at Pavlich, Sandilands and McPharlin it appears Fremantle are looking next level at David Mundy, Ryan Crowley and Paul Duffield and their approaching retirements.


With these things considered Fremantle did an outstanding job of picking the best available player at the time of their picks. A lot of teams consider this the best strategy however it really is only a team that is in Fremantle's position of production from the existing and talent coming through that the best available pick works.


Lachie Weller was considered a borderline top 10 pick and Fremantle jumped at the chance to get him a pick or two later than expected. Connor Blakely may be looked back on as the steal of this draft and Fremantle were able to acquire him in the middle of the second round. Blakely's numbers were bordering on elite at WAFL league level and seems a worthy mix of David Mundy and Lachie Neale. Blakely is a luxury that adds to a growingly dominant clearance team at Fremantle.


The two later picks on forward prospects indicate that Fremantle believe that a small forward line is the key to the future. They used a four pronged small attack to differing degrees of effect last year, but appear to be in a position where pace and defensive pressure will be the ongoing benchmarks of their forward group.


As Fremantle have done, big picture is the key. If they can get the right breaks next year they will again contend and now courtesy of the 2014 draft, they are set to keep the big picture bright.
 

Tiger71

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Sep 22, 2011
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309 days until Pav lifts the cup. I will tick each one of them off.
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MrTripleC

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306 Day Warning - Port Adelaide and when a Draft isn't a Draft

For Port Adelaide, the 2014 off-season was never going to be about the draft – if they had their way. Ultimately after weeks of hard ball they were able to fashion the move for Patrick Ryder that would dictate the club’s offseason and lay their hands down at the draft.

For Port Adelaide this was the classic case of moving all in on a potential blue chip piece.

The resurrection of Port Adelaide has been widely reported over the past three seasons. Those in the know said that change started first off-field before moving on-field.

The club is now a model for leadership, even if the management of the club operations still has to be considered questionable as they are not able to turn a profit.

Perhaps that inability to turn a profit does weigh into what Port Adelaide’s bold off-season moves have been.

Clearly this is starting to look like a premiership or bust for the club as a whole. Right now they continue to ride a wave of momentum, but perhaps this is more momentum than sustained success like a Hawthorn or Geelong.

For as good as Ken Hinkley has been as a coach, doubts will remain if he is going to be a long-term one club coach. His passionate style and approach having a habit of wearing thin over seasons.

As good as the leadership of the administrative team has been off-field will other ventures turn those keen eyes elsewhere. It is starting to look like this is a club that is all in for 2014.


With a first pick at 56 in the draft, it is hard to get a strong read on what Port Adelaide was hoping to achieve with its four live picks.

They ended up taking a key defender, two forwards and a ruckman. All long term projects given the usual time it takes for late key position players to develop.

Theoretically, Logan Austin could end up with the biggest part to play this season given that Port Adelaide are still short on defensive depth.

However Austin truly is a project player given he only recently took up a defensive role.

Billy Frampton – who was one of the last picks in the draft – had elite numbers at underage level and could be a good long-term prospect, while Jesse Palmer is a proven goal kicker who is missing the accurate set shot to be a legitimate third tall weapon.

It was like Port Adelaide were admitting through the draft that they have their team and their premiership squad assembled already. The draft was simply about shooting for high risk, high upside plays. Perhaps more important for Port Adelaide will be the rookie draft, where they may add some mature-age players to build depth.

Port Adelaide told the football world where they were in the trade period. They are all in for 2015. Eyes have to turn to the rookie draft where Port Adelaide could be one of the more intriguing clubs given the wealth of possible South Australian talent that could help add depth and get them through the season.

They were reasonably lucky outside of illness mid-season to have a full team for most the year. Ask a team like Fremantle and they will tell you that all it takes is one or two injuries and a campaign can disappear in the blink of an eye.

Do Port Adelaide have all it takes to make a Power surge in 2015?
 
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MrTripleC

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305 Day Warning - Geelong and the South Australian-Cockatoo Connection

Few could have imagined when Adelaide and Geelong made a seemingly insignificant final hour trade in October's trade period that it would set the tone for one of the great what if moments of the 2014 AFL draft.


The trade on paper seemed harmless, Geelong gave up picks 14 and 35 for picks 10 and 47. At the time it appeared that Geelong's highly regarded list management team had looked at the mock draft board and saw the talent they wanted as a top ten player. The player they wanted was not getting to 14 and they wanted into the top 10.


They appeared to have a player they were set upon. Again few would or could have imagined at trade time that the player Geelong foresaw as a top ten pick was Nakia Cockatoo. Indeed Cockatoo became one of the pre-draft bolters as through draft day testing his position as a perceived high risk, high reward player became to be outweighed by the upside talent. The talent was worth the risk. Instead of being a high risk mid draft pick, Cockatoo became a wanted top talent pick and a top ten play.


Cockatoo was a highly regarded junior who had most of his 2014 season crippled by injury. When he did play though he was electrifying with his playmaking and speed on the outside elite for an underage player. Given what Geelong had lost through the trade period Cockatoo answers a lot of questions about where Geelong are going in terms of speed and outside run. Where Cockatoo is elite is exactly where Geelong needed to find elite.


To add to the complexion of this trade picks 35 and 47 also tell an intriguing draft day story. Both picks were used to land underrated members of the South Australian under 18s championship winning team. Geelong at 47 went for Cory Gregson who was one of the more consistent players at under age level showing elite tackle numbers for forward while also being able to impact the scoreboard. Indeed on numbers and proven performance it appears that Gregson is a shrewd investment for a mid third round pick.


But Harrison Wigg who was taken at 35 with Geelong's original mid second round pick also appears to be a good investment. Geelong showed by picking Gregson and Dean Gore later in the third round that they believed South Australia had some undervalued talent. Gore like Gregson was a key member of the national championship winners. Like Gregson and Cockatoo, Gore has an elite skill, that being endurance and ball winning ability for a big bodied midfielder, both skills that convert to an AFL game. Indeed on numbers and proven performance it appears that Gore is a shrewd investment for a late third round pick. Seems to be a theme here.


Clearly Geelong had regarded the under 18 championship performances as test of being a part of a successful team. This makes sense as Geelong have been a successful team for close to a decade and appear to put real stock in a players background and the team success that an underage players has had.


Overlooking Geelong's draft now it appears that they have covered a number of areas they needed help with elite skills. It is a strategy that has served them well for this decade of success they have had. They have some risk, they have some safety but overall they have upside. Some clubs just seem to do it well. Geelong are one of those clubs.


Despite this looking like a Geelong success story, still one has to ask, with all the pieces now aligned, would Geelong have actually done that late trade if they knew what it meant. Lots of what ifs but if Geelong had kept pick 14 it is possible that Cockatoo would have been on the board. Would the risk of Cockatoo being available at 14 outweighed the difference in players between Gregson and Wigg both of whom could have impressive AFL careers and both who appear to be bargain picks for where they were selected. Outside of Geelong no-one can really know if they were high on Wigg or if they were comfortable with Gregson and Gore.


No matter what they do over the course of their careers the names Cockatoo, Gregson and Wigg are going to be linked. As time passes the three careers will intertwine and both clubs will ask. What if.


It will always be a great draft day what if.
 

MrTripleC

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304 Day Warning - The Mike to Cam Show Monday December 1

The Mike to Cam Show returns for the 2015 season with their unique take on all things AFL. From now through to the AFL Grand final Mike to Cam will be bringing a daily podcast (Monday - Friday) to footy fans. This is the only five time a week footy based podcast, so footy fans get involved.

In today's show the boys give their three stars for the week just gone with Mike showing a heavy homer influence. They give their sporting one to remember from the past weekend with the NFL featuring heavily in this segment. The coaches corner poses the question of whether clubs should get longer to pick the players that will decide their clubs future before the show finishes with a draft heavy Quickfire.

As always feedback is appreciated and the show can be followed on twitter on MTC_MIKETOCAM.


 
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