AFL 2015

[Keystone agony]

Good points raised Keystone.

The only issue with Port is that they do lack depth and have not been tested with a heavy injury toll since Hinkley took over. Even last year towards the latter half of the season when they had a few injuries they lost games they probably should have won. When the Hawks were decimated with injuries they were still a very competitive unit and truly have a well tested depth.

Where do you think the Crows will finish under a new coach? I think they have the list to go anywhere from 7th to 11th.

Yeh actually still think hawks are the team to beat. Sydney great squad on paper. Port lack quality depth depth but if still think they have a very solid 25 and their top 10-15 is as good as any IMO.

I think GWS could potentially make the top 8 this year, thats my fairly big call. I think if they can get Hanyes back, Davis back to his best with Mohr (is he injured) with Patful they have very good talls. Their forward line talls: Cameron back to best, continued development of Tomlinson and Patton is tracking better than expected with an amazing midfield and smalls across the field i think they could be the dark horse of the comp this year. I think they will be better than GC 2014 and they wernt far off.

Crows are really hard team to predict. Think they lack in too many areas for me. Id have them just outside the 8 without looking to see who actually will get in there. With such a tight comp its hard to say.

I might be bias but im pretty certain Hawks, Freo, Sydney, Port and Essendon can be written down as top 8 finishes. Kangaroos should be there but i doubt they will cause any damage in finals. The next 2 spots up for grabs i think GWS could well be one of them if things go well. Geelong always seem to make it but one year they wont, Eagles? Adelaide? the others teams i like.

 

[Jugada]

Yeah they opened $1.90 each, then everyone plunged on the lions, then they went well in the NAB Cup and ended up tumbling in to like $1.20 after that

 

[GROTTO]

The week leading into the game the Lions definitely were $1.60 and the Dogs were $2.35 I do , from memory also I thought they were both $1.90 as mentioned earlier. As Jugada mentioned, the Lions were smashed in even at $1.60

 

[GROTTO]

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/afl-round-1.993564/

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Early picks

Richmond H2H
Gold Coast H2H
Brisbane H2H
West Coast H2H
GWS H2H
Adelaide H2H
Hawthorn H2H

@20.14

I would put $50

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Also put Boak brownlow winner as well as Dangerfield brownlow winner

I also put Walker to win the Coleman

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah they opened $1.90 each, then everyone plunged on the lions, then they went well in the NAB Cup and ended up tumbling in to like $1.20 after that

I should clarify by opening up I meant the week before the season - i.e. after the NAB cup form was already known.

 

[free at last]

I can see Sydney sliding and Freo will battle to make Top 4 so love the look of Adelaide Top 4 ($4.50) and North Melbourne at Top 4 ($3.20) to join shorter priced Hawks and Port inside the Top 4. Also like the look of Essendon for that final Top 4 spot ($5.00) but really not sure what will come out of ASADA and how it will impact the squad even if cleared. The Swans are extremely vulnerable down back and if they cop some injuries, I could easily see the wheels falling off so a value roughie would be Swans to miss the Top 8 ($7.00)

What are your reasons for freo and Sydney both sliding?

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Hawks
Swans
Port
Freo

Top 4 in my opinion

Geelong
Adelaide
Richmond
North

The rest ^^

Not in the exact order

 

[Keystone agony]

Hawks
Swans
Port
Freo

Top 4 in my opinion

Geelong
Adelaide
Richmond
North

The rest ^^

Not in the exact order

Best doing ladder predictions imo to get your point across.

Hawks
Sydney
Port
Fremantle

Essendon
North Melbourne
Geelong
GWS (Its going to be my big call for the season, so im running with it).
----------------------
West Coast
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Richmond (Really struggling to split these 4 teams)

Collingwood
Brisbane
Carlton

WBD
Melb
Stkilda

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Best doing ladder predictions imo to get your point across.

Hawks
Sydney
Port
Fremantle

Essendon
North Melbourne
Geelong
GWS (Its going to be my big call for the season, so im running with it).
----------------------
West Coast
Adelaide
Gold Coast
Richmond (Really struggling to split these 4 teams)

Collingwood
Brisbane
Carlton

WBD
Melb
Stkilda

We have a decent draw and I think we will win the first 4 games which is vital for us to be in the top 8

 

[Keystone agony]

We have a decent draw and I think we will win the first 4 games which is vital for us to be in the top 8

Yeh true.

I guess my calculations are more so then on the teams list rather than taking into consideration the draw/fixture ect - which i havnt.

Id be happy to play Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond twice each this year, whereas in past years it wouldnt be considered that way.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Yeh true.

I guess my calculations are more so then on the teams list rather than taking into consideration the draw/fixture ect - which i havnt.

Id be happy to play Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond twice each this year, whereas in past years it wouldnt be considered that way.

Collingwood are going to be shot without Beams , Carlton don't have a forwardline and Richmond will be in the 8.

 

[X_box_X]

View attachment 101496 View attachment 101496
lol View attachment 101496

2015 = an odd year.

 

[Keystone agony]

Collingwood are going to be shot without Beams , Carlton don't have a forwardline and Richmond will be in the 8.

I disagree with Richmond. Not saying they wont make the top 8 but just dont think you can say "Richmond will make the 8" out of a party boy Martin, a guy now getting injuries Deledio, an inconsistent head dropping key forward Riewoldt and a gun captain heavily tagged each week Cotchin and maybe add in Ellis they dont have much else going for then IMO.

Theyre 7-22 group is pretty poor/avg IMO.

Alot of their season relies on brilliant seasons from Maric, Grimes, Batchelor, Conca and Vlastuin and even then all those guys are limited footballers.

Collingwood have lost to much quality in Thomas, Beams, Harry O, Maxwell,, Shaw, Jolly, Wellingham im sure im forgetting someone in such a small time frame that no club could be expected to cover those players with what they did at collingwood.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I disagree with Richmond. Not saying they wont make the top 8 but just dont think you can say "Richmond will make the 8" out of a party boy Martin, a guy now getting injuries Deledio, an inconsistent head dropping key forward Riewoldt and a gun captain heavily tagged each week Cotchin and maybe add in Ellis they dont have much else going for then IMO.

Theyre 7-22 group is pretty poor/avg IMO.

Alot of their season relies on brilliant seasons from Maric, Grimes, Batchelor, Conca and Vlastuin and even then all those guys are limited footballers.

Collingwood have lost to much quality in Thomas, Beams, Harry O, Maxwell,, Shaw, Jolly, Wellingham im sure im forgetting someone in such a small time frame that no club could be expected to cover those players with what they did at collingwood.

Reason I put them in the top 8 up there is because of their easy draw.

I can see gold coast making top 8 as well :/

 

[GROTTO]

We have a decent draw and I think we will win the first 4 games which is vital for us to be in the top 8

Biased but true. The draw is a massive variable in deciding the top 8 and the injury list depending on most clubs.

 

[GROTTO]

Yeh true.

If ASADA do a number on the Dons you can add them to that wish list of teams wanting to play certain ones twice.

I guess my calculations are more so then on the teams list rather than taking into consideration the draw/fixture ect - which i havnt.

Id be happy to play Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond twice each this year, whereas in past years it wouldnt be considered that way.

 

[Keystone agony]

Essendon arent going to cop anything thats well known now by those that are still following the story closely.

 

[Swan4Brownlow]

A lot of people here writing the Pies off as bottom 4 finishers more out of hatred than a logical reason. Sure they've lost a lot of quality but most of the players they've shed have been dead wood (Didak, Johnson, Jolly, Wellingham all were either done or have done SFA since leaving, Beams is the only one that hurts) and they've also got a number of guys who are ready to step up and improve their output. In Cloke and Pendlebury they have a top 3 mid in the comp and a potential top 3 power forward if Cloke goes back to his AA form. Sidebottom showed in the second half of last year that he is ready to step up and become an elite mid and Adams, Freeman, Witts, Grundy, Langdon, Elliott and Kennedy headline a group of younger players who are ready to assume greater responsibilities and it will be their output that decides where the side goes. If Brown and Reid stay on the park and Swan shows last year was an aberration due to niggles rather than his form falling off a cliff, then given our draw I'd be shocked if we don't make the 8. Toovey, Goldsack, Greenwood and Varcoe are all solid AFL citizens and will give you a reasonably consistent output most weeks. There are absolutely no excuses for us not to make the 8 at this stage and a lot of the other clubs fighting for that 8th spot have much more difficult draws than we do. Barring injuries to Pendlebury and/or Cloke then I think we can finish 6-8. I'm all over the $3 at Sportsbet.

 

[iluvparis]

Solid team supported to bet suggestion ratio.

 

[GROTTO]

A lot of people here writing the Pies off as bottom 4 finishers more out of hatred than a logical reason. I think we can finish 6-8. I'm all over the $3 at Sportsbet.

From 2014, statistically speaking you have lost 3 of your top 10 players in Beams, Ball and Harry O and you had the 4th worst forward line in the competition and 9th worst in conceding. I dont hate Collingwood, I just think there are better teams that will land in the 8 ahead of you. Mind you, you do have a favorable draw, where I have penciled you in for about 11-12 wins and you only leave Victoria during the H&A season 5 times.

Mind you, I have a similar bias in which I do think the Crows will land in the 8. Crows are at $2 to make the 8.

 

[Keystone agony]

Its hard to say whos going to be an easy team to beat or a hard team.

Are richmond rated as a top 8 team to beat?
Are u rating GWS as an 'easy' team? How are brisbane rated at the gabba to beat?

The only real easy teams to beat next year IMO are melbourne, saints and dogs and the bombers almost lost to all of them last year.

If your playing those 3 twice than you have a favorable draw.

 

[HBFlanker]

Havent had any bets as of yet but will be loading up on North top 4 and if i can find a market will be having a fair bit on Collingwood bottom 4.

 

[SApies]

Adelaide @ 4.50 to make top 4 seems like REAL good value

Also definitely having a look at Adelaide/Hawthorn to make grand final @ 61!

Got a feeling about Crows this year.