AFL 2015

[d3ft]

Geelong seems to bring the best out in players so if Mitch Clark is going to recapture his 2012 form at any club, it'll probably the Cats. Big if though.

And yeah, Stanley is a spud.

 

[doncht]

That's Geelong's magic I guess. I don't know how he does it but he makes it every time.

 

[toxic]

Nic nat at
100/1 for the brownlow. .

I'm interested at that price

 

[TheKanga]

Anyone betting on the NAB this year?

 

[GROTTO]

Anyone betting on the NAB this year?

Probably going to wait for the odds to come out first before considering it. There is some value in a few games especially when soft squads are selected. Problem is that the books have held back releasing odds till squads are posted.

 

[TheKanga]

Probably going to wait for the odds to come out first before considering it. There is some value in a few games especially when soft squads are selected. Problem is that the books have held back releasing odds till squads are posted.

It was good betting on those round robin NAB games because often the fresh team would win.
I'll probably wait before I decide as well, probably won't touch the games played at rural stadiums.

 

[GROTTO]

It was good betting on those round robin NAB games because often the fresh team would win.
I'll probably wait before I decide as well, probably won't touch the games played at rural stadiums.

As a heads up, Crows are playing the Roos at some country ground for starters.

 

[Cuzz09]

Port v West Coast at Norwood Oval should be good

 

[GROTTO]

Port v West Coast at Norwood Oval should be good

Port will field a traditionally very soft team in the NAB. Crows massacred them last year.

 

[Cuzz09]

Port will field a traditionally very soft team in the NAB. Crows massacred them last year.

Yeah. Guess results dont matter. Eagles have never had a huge pre season (as in nab cup) be a decent game

 

[GROTTO]

Eagles have never had a huge pre season (as in nab cup) be a decent game

What?

 

[Small Moves]

Yeah. Guess results dont matter. Eagles have never had a huge pre season (as in nab cup) be a decent game

West Coast were all hyped up after the NAB Challenge of 2014. Beat Freo twice, beat Sydney...

 

[GROTTO]

West Coast were all hyped up after the NAB Challenge of 2014. Beat Freo twice, beat Sydney...

2012 they played off in the final.

 

[IQ3]

Using this kind of "penciling in" technique is always fraught with danger, but if you look at it that way, the Blues are always going to have 2-3 upsets (if you want to call them that) against your Essendons/Collingwoods/Richmonds and a few others.

Carlton haven't beat the pies in years

 

[GROTTO]

Carlton haven't beat the pies in years

H&A

2014

Carlton
Lost to Essendon Once (and one tie)
Lost to Pies Twice
Lost to Richmond once

2013

Carlton
Lost to Essendon Twice
Lost to Pies Twice
Lost to Richmond Once and beat Richmond Once

Out of the past 11 H&A games against Essendon, Pies and Richmond, Carlton have recorded just the one win.

 

[IQ3]

H&A

2014

Carlton
Lost to Essendon Once (and one tie)
Lost to Pies Twice
Lost to Richmond once

2013

Carlton
Lost to Essendon Twice
Lost to Pies Twice
Lost to Richmond Once and beat Richmond Once

Out of the past 11 H&A games against Essendon, Pies and Richmond, Carlton have recorded just the one win.

exactly, which was why it was a stupid call to say they always upset pies/dons/tiges

 

[Lensen]

exactly, which was why it was a stupid call to say they always upset pies/dons/tiges

Reckon the "and a few others" bit covered the point that was being made

 

[banana_bus]

exactly, which was why it was a stupid call to say they always upset pies/dons/tiges

Yeah exactly, lets use the huge sample space that is 2013-2014 to discredit my "stupid call". Moron.

 

[banana_bus]

How about we go back to 2012 where;

Carlton
Beat Essendon Once
Beat the Pies Twice (who finished top 4 mind you)
Beat Richmond once

5/6

Carlton haven't beat the pies in years

What a stupid call.

 

[GROTTO]

How about we go back to 2012 where;

Carlton
Beat Essendon Once
Beat the Pies Twice (who finished top 4 mind you)
Beat Richmond once

5/6

Yes you are very correct.

banana_bus I deliberately did not include the 2012 season not to not emphasize my point, but to highlight the fact that Carlton performance under Malthouse's gameplan in these Victorian rivalries is far different to Ratten's, that coached them that year in 2012 and before that in 2011, where he had recorded 6 wins from 8 games against the three teams highlighted.

While 2 years may be short time to draw conclusions, 3 years is definitely a good length of time in reaching conclusions about a teams performance which incidentally is the length of his current contract with the Blues.

 

[PP34]

Carlton should have beaten Essendon twice in 2013 though and they choked badly in round 2 or 3 of 2013 against the Pies.

They could be worth a punt this year in those games if the odds are right.

 

[Anzac16]

Carlton should have beaten Essendon twice in 2013 though and they choked badly in round 2 or 3 of 2013 against the Pies.

They could be worth a punt this year in those games if the odds are right.

I actually think (pending form and teams before the games) that betting the underdogs in all of the games including 2 of Essendon/Richmond/Carlton/Collingwood games this year very well could lead to some decent results. This year is the first time in a long time I think all 4 teams are roughly on level pegging. I'm sure some people will disagree with me in saying that Carlton is around the level of the other 3 and saying that I'm biased. If we are able to find a bit more consistency this year I expect us to end up with 2-3 wins at most of all the other 3.

 

[GROTTO]

I actually think (pending form and teams before the games) that betting the underdogs in all of the games including 2 of Essendon/Richmond/Carlton/Collingwood games this year very well could lead to some decent results. This year is the first time in a long time I think all 4 teams are roughly on level pegging. I'm sure some people will disagree with me in saying that Carlton is around the level of the other 3 and saying that I'm biased. If we are able to find a bit more consistency this year I expect us to end up with 2-3 wins at most of all the other 3.

In 2015, you have 4 games against Essendon (1), Pies (2) and Tigers (1). If the Essendon players do get the suspensions, you should be penciling that as a win in R3 as a starting point.

 

[GoTigers2015]

Any tips on the NAB rising star. Could get good value because of the evenness of the 2014 draft. Menadue from all reports is the training the house down and looks good value at 150/1

 

[toxic]

Any tips on the NAB rising star. Could get good value because of the evenness of the 2014 draft. Menadue from all reports is the training the house down and looks good value at 150/1

Freeman
blakely