Autopsy AFL 2016: The Richmond six who could hold the Tigers back

[THE THIN MAN]

Richmond's hopes of a breakthrough finals win - and even a premiership - hinge on improving their depth, with official data showing their bottom-tier players have the fifth-worst rating of any side.

In a year where coach Damien Hardwick will have to prove he deserves a contract extension, much could depend on the development of players such as Kamdyn McIntosh, Taylor Hunt, Dylan Grimes, Sam Lloyd, Jake Batchelor and Ben Griffiths. Analysis by the AFL's official statisticians, Champion Data, said the six players were ranked 17-22 at the club.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/afl...uld-hold-the-tigers-back-20160201-gmipxx.html

 

[Groupie_]

chanpion data is a crock of s**t

 

[Coach_Required]

Apart from McIntosh & Grimes, I tend to agree to be honest. McIntosh is only a few years into the system so he has ability to really improve and GRimes is a better player but unfortunately I'm guessing his injuries keep him from getting a decent mark.

I think where champion data falls down is the fact it cant rate players who have the ability to improve and that's what makes us different, I think we have a lot of players with the scope to really improve and take the next step. I think we have a really talented list and I cant remember our list being as good as it is right now.

Time to deliver

 

[Rubber Hips]

Apart from McIntosh & Grimes, I tend to agree to be honest. McIntosh is only a few years into the system so he has ability to really improve and GRimes is a better player but unfortunately I'm guessing his injuries keep him from getting a decent mark.

I think where champion data falls down is the fact it cant rate players who have the ability to improve and that's what makes us different, I think we have a lot of players with the scope to really improve and take the next step. I think we have a really talented list and I cant remember our list being as good as it is right now.

Time to deliver

Agree re KMac andGrimey...but I would add Bellis

 

[TheProwler]

Agree re KMac andGrimey...but I would add Bellis

Gee that's harsh, guy is an outsider and needs to work on finding his own ball. Cotch, Lids, Maric & Chaplin are bigger worries when the heat is applied. These guys are supposed to be experienced leaders. The EF last year was primed for someone to make a statement but unfortunately the regulars through the 22rnds were all watching each other mimick witches hats.

Brandon needs to work on a few things but isn't in our bottom five, yet.

 

[Lsta062]

No wonder our good is very good and our bad can be horrible. Our top is "top 4" and our bottom is "bottom 5" according to Champion Data.

Out of the bottom 6 group, Sam Lloyd, Dylan Grimes and Kamdyn McIntosh have room for improvement from what I have seen. Yeah, I know that people may not rate Sam Lloyd, but I quietly am optimistic about him. There are flashes of brilliance and creativity with the way he plays. He needs to work on consistency. Same with Griffiths actually.

I expect Brandon Ellis to move from "average" to "above average", and Trent Cotchin to move from "above average" to "elite".

The improvement of Lennon and CEllis this season would improve our rankings too, so maybe these stats are not something that we should be overly concerned about.

 

[TigerImposter]

KMac and Grimes in our bottom six is rubbish
Our worries are Chaplin Batchelor Grigg Houli and an ageing Maric who can't run with the Giants anymore

 

[Dunger]

I stopped reading the article when it said Ben Lennon was outside of the 22.

Champion data also had morris out of the 22 which i would agree with.

From that you can say statistics get it wrong 50% of the time.

If they got it right all the time we'd know the 2016 premiers already...

These articles are a good way for CD to keep themselves relevant

 

[Ralll]

Would like to see why Batch and Grimes are in the bottom %, possession based stats maybe?

I still think its our attitude that holds us back rather than our bottom 6.

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

hunt and Lloyd well no s**t Sherlock. kmac and grimes is laughable and griff is an inconsistent big man. personally feel like we got rid of a lot of our bottom 6 in newman,gordon etc

 

[Charlie Pannam]

you'd think that quite a few of those below average players (bottom 35% for their position)- , Dylan Grimes, Ben Griffiths (?), Kamdyn McIntosh, Ben Lennon-should improve at least to the next average or above this year.

Also think that Dusty and Cotch both have the potential to be rated elite (top 10 per cent in that position in the league) rather than above average (top 35%).

Finally 3 or 4 of the below average listed players should make way for the likes of CEllis, Menadue etc..

 

[Capitano_Cotch]

Wow what a misleading article.
Champion data is based on stats, I find it laughable that Dustin Martin is not considered elite.
Take this article with a grain of salt people.
Of course Grimes will be in the bottom 6, he doesn't get the ball that often but his defensive work last season was very good in my opinion.

 

[docko911]

Simple solution really

Taylor Hunt replaced by Chris Yarran
Sam Lloyd replaced by Ben Lennon
Jake Batchelor replaced by Todd Elton or David Astbury
Ben Griffiths replaced by Corey Ellis, Daniel Rioli or Liam McBean

Dylan Grimes is more valuable than the data suggests because of his pace and versatility. He is also coming off his second close to full season without injury. Another off-season strengthening his body will do him wonders.

You can't count McIntosh who played his first season of AFL and played every game. He will be much more prepared this year and will likely get a game or two off to help him stay fresh.

The good news is we have 10+ players putting pressure on for spots this year which will improve the team significantly.

 

[wegetpumped]

Champion data is horse poo. Stats don't show who let the team down in ef. I give you a hint it wasn't the above mentioned.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Stopped reading as soon as i saw three names from our champion backline and if Kamdyn is in the 17-22 range then were looking good. Gee i love being under-rated.

PS: as for Dimma needing to prove himself, hey Jon he will be signed before round 1 you fool, stop writing articles about Richmond you hack and maybe start watching some Richmond games instead of looking at numbers.

 

[leekok]

Just shows stats can achieve any desire the writer so chooses. Any Richmond news is big so they are always crunching our numbers.

 

[Cotcho]

Lost contested ball by 33....must be Kamdyn McIntosh, Taylor Hunt, Dylan Grimes, Sam Lloyd, Jake Batchelor and Ben Griffiths's fault. All our hard, inside mid on ballers...

The bottom 6 has been completely fine in all finals thus far, it's not like we have Lenny Hayes and Raph Clarke at either end of our spectrum. This is just a popular thing to say....and our bottom 6 IMO is fine. Our top 6 has been a massive disappointment in every final. I don't think we have actually had a player finish in the top 5 on the ground in any one of them soooo.......great article .

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Lennon-Jury still out.Not on ability but application.
McIntosh-Great 1st game,Ok the rest,Plenty to work with.
Griff-Has all the tools to take it to the next level,But is Timid.Look elsewhere.
Hunt-Your average foot soldier that every side has.
Lloyd-Just missing that extra bit in his game that would make him dangerous.
So with the addition of Yarran and hopefully the improvement from the 2014 draft kids(I regard as our best draft ever),The gap between our top 10 and bottom 10 will close further this year.

 

[prodigy1311]

I don't care if the data is right or wrong but I am certain of the deficiencies in the bottom 6. Will they improve.? Kmac maybe but Hunt, Lloyd don't think so. Again I don't expect them to be in best 22. For me, Trent & Martin need to step up. They have much more to offer and need to push to be elite. If that happens, we will be unbeatable. I hope we play Jacob and /or Moore every game this season to help out cotch & miles.

Griff & conca are on last legs. If they don't perform they perish.

 

[RockJobster0312]

What I don't like about Champion Data and analysis of sport solely based on facts is that it doesn't take into account other important aspects of a game/ player performance which is vital to success.

An example of this (coming from a basketball background) is what coaches call 'hocky assists', that is the pass that leads to the pass which leads to a score (i.e. the assist of the assist). It is often this pass which creates the scoring opportunity, however it is not a recorded statistic.

Moving back into the AFL sphere, the statistics of the game are heavily offensive based. Disposals, kicking efficiency and contested ball are rated highly. Whilst tackles and spoils are also recorded (and now so are pressure acts) things that aren't recorded are defensive 1v1 victories (which Grimes is at least sufficient at IMO), creating a third man up defensively/ allowing a 'loose man' (Hunt and especially KMac are good at this) and simple gut runnijg that drag opposition players away from areas to create space for others to work in (rewatch the Hawks game, both Hunt and KMac and BEllis do this very well).

Statistics can be applied to individual performances, and team performances, but it never reflects a true connection between the two. I firmly believe that all areas of the field (especially the defensive units), the sum is greater than the sum of the parts. Without Batch or Grimes, would Rance have as much space, and free range to rebound. If it weren't for the entire back six, would the individual 1v1 performances of Houli and Chaplin be more exposed? Statistics are unable to illustrate the structural importance of players.

This is why I think Yarran could have a more important role than just speed and foot skills. How will his place in the team impact Vlastuin (potentially more loose man opportunities and more time in the midfield), how will it impact Houli (potentially more freedom and less tags), how foes his attributes impact our drive forward? Will the wingers have better ball, more space? Will this culminaye in quicker ball movement and better entries inside forward 50 leading to more efficiency and greater impact from Jack and Co. In the forward line?

Statistics show you the tip of the iceburg. But whats more important and what they don't show is underneath.

 

[Infamy]

Not surprising as we've always know that its our depth that we need to develop and as a young developing list its always going to be those outside the starting 18 that are still a work in progress. In 2016 it looks like the first year I can remember when its actually difficult to fit everyone into the 22 that should be a certain starter assuming that everyone is fit.

 

[Royce Hafey]

It's a bullsh#t cliche that a team is only as good as its bottom six. A team is only as good as its 22. If it's top six is worse than other teams' it will suffer. If its middle 10 is worse than other teams' middle 10 it will suffer, and so on. Ordinary players who look useless in a poor team can be useful role players in better teams. We lost the final against North because of an entirely different structural problem. Our midfield has the right mix of talent if you judge it by talent alone, but too much of the talent is purely outside. We rely on two excellent but small bodied inside midfielders in Cotchin and Miles and our Ruckman struggles against the very best (which Goldstein obviously is). We could conceivably replace a very good to elite outside mid like Ellis or Grigg with a merely competent big-bodied inside mid and improve the team. Statistically they may not perform as well and CDs overall rating of the team might go down, but what they do will be more valuable.

 

[DontArgue4]

Crock of s**t imo

Doesnt take into account potential improvement, someone like McIntosh is the prime example. Yes he has been in the system for a few years, but last year was his first injury free year yet look at the impact he had. I have little to no doubt he will go to another level now that his confidence has grown and he knows he belongs. Lennon is the other example, and how about Corey Ellis who isnt listed?!

Replace Hunt and Lloyd in our bottom 5 with C Ellis and Lennon and tell me it looks s**t, if those two are in your bottom five your in great shape.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

As soon as statistics are used I check out.
I have eyes.

 

[_Wang_]

#dontholdback