Review AFL NAB Challenge 1 autopsy - Gold Coast defeats Geelong by 8 points

[numbwombat]

4quarter_cat, I am not missing anything. This is not "my point". "Everyone" is taking issue with a point I am not making. I agree with every single thing you say above about the differences in climate.

My point was about the factors that influenced the outcome of the match. That is where there is a disagreement. Which is fine, by the way.

ur mistake, if i may, was suggesting that the BOM data would prove an unprovable point - that you don't believe the temperature and humidity made a substantial difference (agreed, btw). the data doesn't intrinsically support an argument either way

 

[catempire]

ur mistake, if i may, was suggesting that the BOM data would prove an unprovable point - that you don't believe the temperature and humidity made a substantial difference (agreed, btw). the data doesn't intrinsically support an argument either way

100% agree. I said exactly the same thing to someone else just moments ago. I wish I'd had you here early to save me some time!

 

[Pivo]

worth mentioning here imo that gold coast were fourth for average clearances per game last year - 40.1, negligibly behind hawthorn at number 1 with 40.9. geelong were dead last with 33.9 (stats via footywire)
so while gold coast are obviously young & inexperienced, the clearance numbers from this game (if u want to pay them any attention at all, given guthrie's positional dancing, caddy's verrry average game & the gaping absences in both teams' midfields) if anything only indicate a holding steady (or, fingers crossed, roughly equal improvement across both teams)
not that any indication of even slight improvement in the ruck/clearance situation wouldn't be fantastic, but i'm not taking much away from nab1 in terms of 2015 flag chances

It'll come down to how much weight you place on centre clearances and stoppages I suppose, especially in the H&A and heat (not the weather type, think that has been done to death now) of finals.

In 2011, despite winning the flag, we rated at the low end of the scale for clearances (36.1 in 2011 VS 33.9 in 2014 based on AFL.com.au). A dip between then and now is probably to be expected considering the change in personnel but the drop off isn't as dramatic as one might expect considering the relative inexperience of the playing group learning their trade through those transisioning years.

However, while Geelong, back in 2011, was on the poor side of clearance work (much like nowadays) it was good at forcing turnovers in defence and the midfield and generating attacks through the middle of the ground as the quickest way home.

Problem is, as a group we aren't as silky as back then and in finals that gameplan has come unstuck because guys now simply aren't quite as skilled under pressure anymore.

As such, I think attempting to win (or at least trying to break even) more at the centre break and, particularly, around the stoppages is a worthwhile pursuit. It did contribute, I feel, to bringing us the 2007 and 2009 Premierships.

Last year the average across the 18 sides was 12.3 centre breaks per game, we averaged 11.3 a game. Currently our younger players may prefer operating in less congestion the centre bounce provides as they have a bit more space to work in and fewer bodies to keep tabs on.

It is the stoppage numbers that appear to hurt us more (which we saw on the weekend). Last year we were last in this stat with 22.9 a game. St. Kilda (basically winning 1 more stoppage a game) and Melbourne (roughly 2 more per game) outperformed us in this area despite finishing down at the foot of the table.

The average across all sides was 25.9.

Not being good a winning (or defending) stoppages can potentially hurt a lot more than centre clearances depending on where they happen on the ground. We saw that in the NAB game on the weekend with GC jagging a couple of goals from stoppages. In a close game those goals are invaluable.

If people want a more painful example of not defending stoppages then look no further than the Nick Davis goal in the 2005 Semi Final.

Using the data available, we haven't been great at stoppages since 2009. In 2010 we ranked 11th, were last in 2011, 17th in 2012, 18th in 2013 and 18th in 2014.

Player transistion has contributed to the downward trend but, I don't think, that is where the story begins and ends. If it was just because of new guys coming into the side then I wouldn't expect that low a rating in 2010 and 2011 when we still had Corey, Ling and Ottens playing while Bartel, Kelly, Johnson and Selwood were all 4 years younger.

Paul Chapman was also with the club back in those years while Christensen (19 games in '11) had also just started his career with us. Ablett was still with us in 2010.

Our clearance numbers in '10 and '11 still saw us in the bottom half of that statisitical table, despite the appartant "bigger bodied" and experienced midfielders playing at the time.

In our first 2 flag years we ranked 8th for stoppages in 2009 and 3rd in 2007.

The poor clearance numbers in a premiership year, at least for us, appears to be something of an exception rather than a rule (from a small sample - but flags are hard to win), especially when you take into consideration our finals performances from 2012 onwards (1 win and 6 losses).

The change in head coach might also play a part here. Scott may have come in with a different view regarding clearance work and adjusted the gameplan slightly focusing more on creating turnovers and then using the player's top drawer skills by foot and hand, their bigger bodies which meant we stuck tackles while it was harder for opponents to bring our guys down (I remember a number of our guys standing up in tackles and releasing the ball back then) as well as that almost innate knowledge, that comes from playing together for many years, of knowing where guys are when pressure is applied.

Anyway, I agree that jumping at shadows after 1 NAB Cup game is silly but the loss of clearances isn't exactly a once off either. It has been an on-going trend for a few years (involving both "experienced" and "inexperienced" players). It should also be noted that while Geelong wasn't at full strength (and had one ruck coming off an interrupted pre-season and another who has hardly played the game), neither was Gold Coast (and Smith has had his share of injury setbacks as well, a knee in 2013 and ankle problems last year).

Further to that, one of Gold Coast's leading clearance winners on the day was an 22 year old, ex-rookie with less than 10 senior games experience. As Hallahan demonstrated, winning clearances, despite being inexperienced, can happen.

Personally, I'd like to see some improvement in this area of our gameplan this year rather than a "holding pattern". After a number of years of doing poorly in this stat I'm not expecting miracles, especially with a younger group of players, but clearance work is a fundamental basic in footy imo.

It is something I look forward to watching in the next couple of practice matches.

Anyway, that's me justifying and crapping on about why I raised clearances in the first place.

 

[dazbroncos]

For everyone potting Simpson. For fuchs sake! He just had back surgery. The fact he's even playing this early on is a feckig miracle. I can promise u the MC won't be stressed he got raped around the ground by the uber athletic smith. They'll just be ecstatic
That the big man got through unscathed and that he has a match under his belt. It was a fitness and a mental victory for Dawson. **** there are some idiotic posters on here.

I think Zac Smith is a bit underrated as well. He beat Daws - no argument. But Imo he is as good at mobility around the ground as 211 is at being tall.
And Daws went with him - didn't always win - but gave it a fair shake. And given where he's coming from - he did reasonably well. Its a really good step in the right direction for him.

Go Catters

 

[Turkey Tom]

Got around to watching the game yesterday and I didn't get too many positives or negatives out of it to be honest. Yeah some players were very ordinary, but I am not going to hold that against them it being only a one game sample and a pre-season one at that.

Also with so many players rotating on and off because of the conditions and the numbers on the bench I don't think many of the young players had enough game time to have a really good look at.

The two positives I got out the game:-
1/. If Clark can stay healthy the sky is the limit. Although he was very rusty, he shows he is a smart footballer and his positioning seemed very good. He got to the right spots but just couldn't execute.
2/. Lang looks ok and I can see him starting Round 1 in the forward line if his form holds up.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

It'll come down to how much weight you place on centre clearances and stoppages I suppose, especially in the H&A and heat (not the weather type, think that has been done to death now) of finals.

In 2011, despite winning the flag, we rated at the low end of the scale for clearances (36.1 in 2011 VS 33.9 in 2014 based on AFL.com.au). A dip between then and now is probably to be expected considering the change in personnel but the drop off isn't as dramatic as one might expect considering the relative inexperience of the playing group learning their trade through those transisioning years.

However, while Geelong, back in 2011, was on the poor side of clearance work (much like nowadays) it was good at forcing turnovers in defence and the midfield and generating attacks through the middle of the ground as the quickest way home.

Problem is, as a group we aren't as silky as back then and in finals that gameplan has come unstuck because guys now simply aren't quite as skilled under pressure anymore.

As such, I think attempting to win (or at least trying to break even) more at the centre break and, particularly, around the stoppages is a worthwhile pursuit. It did contribute, I feel, to bringing us the 2007 and 2009 Premierships.

Last year the average across the 18 sides was 12.3 centre breaks per game, we averaged 11.3 a game. Currently our younger players may prefer operating in less congestion the centre bounce provides as they have a bit more space to work in and fewer bodies to keep tabs on.

It is the stoppage numbers that appear to hurt us more (which we saw on the weekend). Last year we were last in this stat with 22.9 a game. St. Kilda (basically winning 1 more stoppage a game) and Melbourne (roughly 2 more per game) outperformed us in this area despite finishing down at the foot of the table.

The average across all sides was 25.9.

Not being good a winning (or defending) stoppages can potentially hurt a lot more than centre clearances depending on where they happen on the ground. We saw that in the NAB game on the weekend with GC jagging a couple of goals from stoppages. In a close game those goals are invaluable.

If people want a more painful example of not defending stoppages then look no further than the Nick Davis goal in the 2005 Semi Final.

Using the data available, we haven't been great at stoppages since 2009. In 2010 we ranked 11th, were last in 2011, 17th in 2012, 18th in 2013 and 18th in 2014.

Player transistion has contributed to the downward trend but, I don't think, that is where the story begins and ends. If it was just because of new guys coming into the side then I wouldn't expect that low a rating in 2010 and 2011 when we still had Corey, Ling and Ottens playing while Bartel, Kelly, Johnson and Selwood were all 4 years younger.

Paul Chapman was also with the club back in those years while Christensen (19 games in '11) had also just started his career with us. Ablett was still with us in 2010.

Our clearance numbers in '10 and '11 still saw us in the bottom half of that statisitical table, despite the appartant "bigger bodied" and experienced midfielders playing at the time.

In our first 2 flag years we ranked 8th for stoppages in 2009 and 3rd in 2007.

The poor clearance numbers in a premiership year, at least for us, appears to be something of an exception rather than a rule (from a small sample - but flags are hard to win), especially when you take into consideration our finals performances from 2012 onwards (1 win and 6 losses).

The change in head coach might also play a part here. Scott may have come in with a different view regarding clearance work and adjusted the gameplan slightly focusing more on creating turnovers and then using the player's top drawer skills by foot and hand, their bigger bodies which meant we stuck tackles while it was harder for opponents to bring our guys down (I remember a number of our guys standing up in tackles and releasing the ball back then) as well as that almost innate knowledge, that comes from playing together for many years, of knowing where guys are when pressure is applied.

Anyway, I agree that jumping at shadows after 1 NAB Cup game is silly but the loss of clearances isn't exactly a once off either. It has been an on-going trend for a few years (involving both "experienced" and "inexperienced" players). It should also be noted that while Geelong wasn't at full strength (and had one ruck coming off an interrupted pre-season and another who has hardly played the game), neither was Gold Coast (and Smith has had his share of injury setbacks as well, a knee in 2013 and ankle problems last year).

Further to that, one of Gold Coast's leading clearance winners on the day was an 22 year old, ex-rookie with less than 10 senior games experience. As Hallahan demonstrated, winning clearances, despite being inexperienced, can happen.

Personally, I'd like to see some improvement in this area of our gameplan this year rather than a "holding pattern". After a number of years of doing poorly in this stat I'm not expecting miracles, especially with a younger group of players, but clearance work is a fundamental basic in footy imo.

It is something I look forward to watching in the next couple of practice matches.

Anyway, that's me justifying and crapping on about why I raised clearances in the first place.

Great post as usual The Pivotonian

Clearance performance will be very interesting this season.
The midfield is starting to look stronger with Selwood , Caddy , Guthrie , an ageing SJ - with GHS , Stokes and Motlop spending some time there.
I think Lang and Nakia have the potential to strengthen the rotation - if not 2015 then 2016.
We then have Cowan who could provide a strong combination of inside and outside and Gore who could be very useful.
However I believe Hartman and Jansen being big , strong bodies could really make a difference to the clearance numbers. Both are unproven but defenitely not without a lot of promise.
Lot of ifs in there but we certainly are assembling the cattle...........

 

[David the Cat]

I thought he did enough noticable stuff for me to not have to ram it down peoples throats

If hes named round 1, thats when i will get annoying.

We don't need to wait till Round 1 Chook…….….you're annoying already

 

[David the Cat]

Oh…btw…the weather here in Switzerland is quite cool. a strong northerly wind making the temperature feel more like freezing……with cloud building up in the west……blah….blah…blah

 

[you pick one]

Oh…btw…the weather here in Switzerland is quite cool. a strong northerly wind making the temperature feel more like freezing……with cloud building up in the west……blah….blah…blah

I go for a jumper up here now if it goes below 26c.

 

[ChookNorris]

We don't need to wait till Round 1 Chook…….….you're annoying already

That's the truest thing I've read since 'corey gregson is an icon'

 

[ChookNorris]

We don't need to wait till Round 1 Chook…….….you're annoying already

 

[YY_Cat]

Sorry for the interruption. Do we have any rotation plan in this season? Or are we able to do some rotation in some key roles? Everybody won't be too exhausted before the finals.

 

[dazbroncos]

Oh…btw…the weather here in Switzerland is quite cool. a strong northerly wind making the temperature feel more like freezing……with cloud building up in the west……blah….blah…blah

How's the humidity - What does it read on your CE memorial humidity detector?

Go Catters

 

[OzeSparky]

Here are highlights of the match clearances





(makes for some fairly grim viewing on Geelong's behalf)

Gee wiz, looks likes Knights has got a few sleepless nights comin up

 

[Art Vandelay_]

how quick are the Suns players though?
Our guys don't look like they are reactive enough, whereas the Suns players are constantly on the move and predicting where to run when the rucks are in mid-air. Surprisingly, we looked better when we had Cockatoo, Motlop in the middle as their reaction, or alertness was like a flick of the switch.
Perhaps a taste of things to come?

Maybe being aboriginal boys they were more accustomed to the conditions?

I expect nab3 to have a near on full team, if the clearances are poor in that game, then we can be concerned.

 

[Teriyakicat]

Here are highlights of the match clearances





(makes for some fairly grim viewing on Geelong's behalf)

Thanks Bobby- yes, certainly grim viewing but I was very encouraged by how Simpson appeared to be moving freely and how he looked hungry for the ball- he was still chasing late in the 2nd quarter, rather than standing still with his hands on his hips, and his second and third efforts were good throughout the game. He'll definitely have blown a few cobwebs out. Also just watching Kelly and Bartel moving - looks like we've gone back in time. (hopefully to somewhere in the 2009 region, not 2002 )

 

[catempire]

Here are highlights of the match clearances





(makes for some fairly grim viewing on Geelong's behalf)

I always appreciate the effort that goes into these Bobby.

I was very critical of Simpson on first view of the match but having seen that I think it is more minor adjustments that are needed to turn things around. He must play to his strength which is clearly his enormous size and get his body between him and his opponent at around the ground ball ups and throw ins. He didn't do this nearly enough against Smith and he paid the price for it.

The clear upside was that he was moving freely and getting involved once the ball hit the deck, things that we didn't see enough of in 2014.

 

[dazbroncos]

I always appreciate the effort that goes into these Bobby.

I was very critical of Simpson on first view of the match but having seen that I think it is more minor adjustments that are needed to turn things around. He must play to his strength which is clearly his enormous size and get his body between him and his opponent at around the ground ball ups and throw ins. He didn't do this nearly enough against Smith and he paid the price for it.

The clear upside was that he was moving freely and getting involved once the ball hit the deck, things that we didn't see enough of in 2014.

Posted that I saw this as well. Thought he moved around the ground at a decent rate as well. Clearly he could never go with the more agile and talented Smith - but he certainly made the effort. And once on the ground or in dispute, he was rarely the spectator and oft the person getting down after it. and from 206 that is a long, long way down. Clearly can do more, and it is expected, but for a first hit out after surgery in oppressive conditions he passed for mine.

Go Catters

 

[Art Vandelay_]

how quick are the Suns players though?
Our guys don't look like they are reactive enough, whereas the Suns players are constantly on the move and predicting where to run when the rucks are in mid-air. Surprisingly, we looked better when we had Cockatoo, Motlop in the middle as their reaction, or alertness was like a flick of the switch.
Perhaps a taste of things to come?

You've changed quickly. You were the one wanting to bookmark and bump my prediction that the suns would beat us in r3. I've resigned myself and am at ease with the fact Gold Coast are better than we are and will be for a while yet

FWIW I quoted the wrong message and thread with the earlier response. This was meant to be it.

 

[you pick one]

Here are highlights of the match clearances





(makes for some fairly grim viewing on Geelong's behalf)

 

[Biggy_Boy]

I don't think they get near us in round 3 though. That game is like 6 weeks away and we are all making far too much of one practice game. Stanley helping out Simpson will also significantly nullify Smith's influence. We were getting slaughtered in the middle and still found a way to regain the lead near the end of the match.

I wouldn't look so much at the practice game as an indicator for how we will do in the H&A season. I would, however, look at the round 14 game from last year and question which side is likely to have improved the most since then, with the practice game doing little to assuage concerns that key weaknesses are still present in Geelong's game and that the Gold Coast is growing ever stronger and has further room to improve yet.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I don't think they get near us in round 3 though. That game is like 6 weeks away and we are all making far too much of one practice game. Stanley helping out Simpson will also significantly nullify Smith's influence. We were getting slaughtered in the middle and still found a way to regain the lead near the end of the match.

I agree we're making too much of aspects of a game where both sides were understrength.

However I stand by my earlier prediction, for now.

 

[Whit3y]

I don't think they get near us in round 3 though. That game is like 6 weeks away and we are all making far too much of one practice game. Stanley helping out Simpson will also significantly nullify Smith's influence. We were getting slaughtered in the middle and still found a way to regain the lead near the end of the match.

a gc fan could say booby that gc had 11 more scoring shots, and that when the real stuff begins they will have better conversion.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

a gc fan could say booby that gc had 11 more scoring shots, and that when the real stuff begins they will have better conversion.

That could also indicate a lack of midfield pressure could it not?

 

[Art Vandelay_]

very true and this is why certain teams like the Suns are going to be powerhouses in a similar mold to Geelong and Brisbane of yesteryear. The amount of top end talent they have been given, along with terrific training facilities and footballing staff, it was always too much in my opinion. I understand all clubs signed off on it and were happy for such growth to transpire in the far reaches of Australia but this will make for some rather boring footy for a period of 3-4 years in succession.

I looked at our outs and then compared it to the Suns outs and it's pretty awesome. Excluding Gary Ablett, O'Meara is more advanced than anything we currently have on our list. I guess we have Duncan (and had Christensen) but Jaegar is already doing what Duncan did last year and this kid has not yet played 45 games.
Dion Prestia is another that pretty much cancels out Johnson as his 2014 season produced very similar numbers.

There are a couple of sides that are building some quite strong midfield depth. Gold Coast is one.

Libba's injury aside so are the dogs, if Boyd develops over the next couple of seasons, they'll have a key forward who is around the same age as many of their up and coming players.

Brisbane is another who have developed good depth in midfield, just need a consistent key forward to complement that.

Pretty obvious why we're targeting Danger and co as potential FA recruits.